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But one week out from the State of the Union and one year out from the Iowa caucuses, with the economy still lagging and more middling-to-poor economic news due out today, the 2004 battlefield at least FEELS more even-steven since before September 11, 2001 — to cleave the Bush presidency into a "before" and "after" yet again.

President Bush's weakness is first and foremost the economy, and neither words nor war can completely solve that problem, though Bush will make the effort today at a morning meeting with a group of economists, and, it appears, next week in the SOTU.

The Democratic Six Pack will veer off a bit from the economy tonight, as they gather for their very first all-in-one-place with mini-speeches at NARAL's DC dinner, but make no mistake: the party is all jazzed up about the president's economic past, present, and future.

Senate Democrats and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi today will hold a hearing today on the Bush economic plan. At 1:00 p.m., Senator Ted Kennedy will deliver his own version of a state of the union address at the National Press Club, touching on education, health care, civil rights, and foreign policy.

"We cannot say it is wartime for the rest of America, but still peacetime for the rich," Kennedy will say, per excerpts of his speech. "And let me say plainly to my fellow Democrats: If we cannot achieve a fair and fiscally responsible compromise, there is no assured political safety in just going along with President Bush."

A bunch of big quarterly earnings reports are expected out today, while new poll numbers suggest that the public may not share President Bush's tax-cut priorities quite as strongly as the administration would like. And check out that moldy Monday Wall Street Journal lying on your office floor under the Tuesday paper, with its front-page story warning of a possible double-dip recession.

ABCNEWS' Schindelheim notes, "The floodgate opens today on earnings reports. By the end of the week, more than half of the S&P 500 companies will have reported. The key to those reports is not what they tell us about the last three months of 2002, but what they tell us about where we are now and where we are heading. Many companies, including Big Chips like Microsoft, IBM and Intel, met profit expectations for the fourth quarter, but have given cautious guidance for 2003. The mood has been somber, as few companies have given any strong signals of a growing consumer demand. Lack of demand equals lack of spending equals stagnant jobs growth."

None of this is to say that Democrats necessarily have gotten their act together — but at least they are aiming at the same target more often than before, and less often at each other.

(Except for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean who, as the scrappy, blunt-speaking underdog in the party's presidential field, has been showing no compunction about going after his rivals as well as Bush, and, at least once in Iowa, Senator John Kerry, who seemed to accuse rivals Gephardt and Lieberman of doing some rug-pulling to the party on Iraq.)

And all of which prompts the question of what kind and duration of bounce the White House needs to, and will reap from, President Bush's address next Tuesday night.

A speech that last week got characterized to us as 65-percent war, 35-percent domestic policy seems to be assuming a more even balance between the two. The AP's Fournier reports, "The Jan. 28 address to Congress will include a fairly even mix of foreign and domestic policies, aides said in previewing a speech that will tie the two themes together with a pledge to accomplish 'the grand purposes' of a nation at war, its economy stalled." LINK

"Aides said the president intends to tout his 10-year, $640 billion tax package along with other domestic policies: Medicare reform; prescription drug coverage, health care for the uninsured, Social Security and legal reform and a new set of initiatives designed to get religious groups more access to federal community services money."

"Senior White House officials said Bush's remarks on Iraq will be largely shaped by his reaction to the inspectors' report and any last-minute develop.m.ents in Baghdad.."

"But the core of Bush's argument is already outlined in the early draft: Saddam is hiding weapons of mass destruction, has ties to terrorist groups and is an imminent threat to the United States."

"He won't use the speech to declare war or issue Saddam any deadlines, officials said. That would come in a later speech, and only if he decides to wage war, they said."

"On domestic policy, White House officials say Bush will not go into great detail over any one proposal … His plans to overhaul Medicare by allowing for more private competition will be unveiled Jan. 29 during a trip to the Midwest, aides said. As part of Medicare reform, Bush will ask Congress to pass a GOP-backed prescription drug program for the elderly."

"Bush is expected to propose allowing small businesses to pool together and offer health insurance for employees under the federal law, skirting state mandates. He also will tout his initiative allowing Americans to invest portions of their Social Security taxes, though aides say the Medicare plan will be on a faster legislative track."

Halfway through the president's term ("first term," as Ms. Matalin likes the call it; "only term" as her husband terms it), the Establishment newspapers are falling all over themselves doing "whither the Bush presidency?" thumbsucking.

The emphasis seems to be on: isn't he governing too conservatively to win re-election votes in the center?

The New York Times ' Stevenson goes for hundreds and hundreds of words before one of the paper's most reliable (thanks, Rick, and welcome back) quotemeisters actually utters the truth: "'I have had the sense with Bush that this compassionate conservative thing is not so much a deliberate strategy as it is the complicated mix of his own personal beliefs,' said Mickey Edwards, a former Republican congressman who is now a lecturer at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard." LINK

The set-up to that claims that Republican moderates/accomodationists in Congress and elsewhere are concerned that the president is governing too far to the right.

The story also says the exceptions to this are education (find us a Democrat, who voted for "Leave No Child Behind" or not, who still supports Mr. Bush's schools policy) and health care (what, Dick, are you thinking of on that — the coming Medicare fight is going to be a doozy).

A new Gallup Poll out today shows this: "For the first time in 40 years, most Americans do not think their federal income tax is too high, according to a USA TODAY /CNN/Gallup Poll this month. The poll suggests that President Bush might not be able to count on resentment of taxes to help pass his economic stimulus plan, which relies largely on tax cuts." LINK

"Half of those surveyed said the federal tax they pay is about right. That's a remarkable turnaround from two years ago, shortly after Bush took office, when two in three said it was too high."

A new joint survey due out today from the respected polling firms Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) shows, along with a lousy wrong-track figure of 51 percent and the economy/jobs as far and away voters' top concern, that "voters' leading tax cut priority is" the child tax credit. LINK LINK

The survey's generic presidential ballot test between George W. Bush and "the Democratic nominee for president" shows 48 percent supporting Bush and 40 percent supporting the Democrat.

ABCNEWS and the Washington Post will have a new poll at 6:30 p.m. ET tonight, with more details tomorrow morning, testing the tax cut, the war, and a horse race of the current Democratic presidential field.

The Democratic wannabes and the party's Hill leadership are buzzing with activity these days.

On the presidential level, with party circles still picking apart the results of this past weekend's events in Iowa, all six announced Democratic candidates will speak tonight at NARAL Pro-Choice America's dinner at the Omni Shoreham Hotel. Receptions to start at 6:00 p.m., event to begin at 7:00 p.m.

The NARAL event will be important for a lot of reasons. Watching the body language in how the candidates treat each other is key.

Influencing the Chattering Class, NARAL Division of pro-choice women activists is also key — right up there with labor and African-Americans. The echo-chamber effect for anyone who does well tonight (or poorly) will be huge.

Watch how the candidates use their limited speaking time (four minutes) to maximum effect. Watch to see if the time limit is strictly enforced. Watch to see who tries to make news, and how hard they go after President Bush. Watch to see who brings and/or makes reference to their spouse.

Richard Gephardt is the only one about whom there is some pre-event buzz that he plans to make news. Most of the speculation has centered on the possibility that he will "apologize" for his previously pro-life position, but Time's Joe Klein says "at the pro-choice cattle show, the only profile in courage will be Dick Gephardt's refusal to endorse late-term abortions."

The Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein on Monday set up the NARAL cattle call as the start of the party's renewed courtship of soccer moms. "Look down the road, around a couple of curves, and it's easy to envision a 2004 presidential race in which the Democratic nominee promotes more aggressively liberal positions on abortion and, perhaps, gun control than at any point in recent memory." LINK

Brownstein writes that recent past Democratic efforts to woo culturally conservative voters have run into "what looks like an impenetrable wall: President Bush's enormous popularity with those same voters."

"Many Democrats will likely respond to Bush's demonstration of strength in the red states by arguing that the party needs to do even more to reconnect with socially conservative voters; North Carolina Senator John Edwards will likely champion that position."

"But most of the Democrats who expressly targeted those voters were still swept away last year in the pro-Bush Republican tide … "

"After those defeats, Democrats may be forced to conclude that Bush's advantage is so pronounced in the red states that no amount of cultural outreach can overcome it. And that would point Democrats in a very different direction: toward emphasizing liberal positions on abortion and guns."

Speaking of a party being dragged toward liberal positions, Iowa was the place to be this weekend if you are, say, writing a book about the Invisible Primary, or if you are just really really interested in it.

There's still a long way to go, and things will change, but if you want a put-it-all-in-the-blender thumbnail sense of the five men most likely to be the Democratic nominee, out of the coverage and the reality, here's what we would say:

Kerry: If Kerry winds up being the Democratic nominee, he will likely have won the contest in late 2002, by consolidating the gains he made throughout the year to take great advantage of the vacuum created by Al Gore's departure. Leaving his three days of private meetings in Iowa aside (he said they went quite well), Kerry's Saturday morning breakfast with 20-or-so reporters, followed by one of the best attended pre-caucus events anybody can remember, was a three-hour period that was representative of, and reflective of the surprisingly strong place in which the guy finds himself.

Dean: If you saw the reaction to Dean's Saturday night speech and you still don't think he can be a serious player in the Iowa caucuses (and maybe win them), you need to recalibrate your brain.

Gephardt: Dan Balz's historic Washington Post story — pushing off a focus group, but truly reflective of what all the national press found everywhere we looked in Iowa — might be the best thing that ever happened to Gephardt this cycle. Stories are still being written about how Gephardt should/must win Iowa, but he is not nearly as strong there right now as many had presumed, and the sooner he can lower expectations (and maybe grind out a win) the better it will be for him. LINK

Edwards: Lots of talk about who will run Iowa for him, besides Rob Tully, but the man is due to spend some serious time on the ground and see how many dividends some living-room time can yield.

Lieberman: IF there is a Lieberman brain trust somewhere, one has to wonder if it is pondering skipping Iowa, or alternatively, how to start making up some serious ground.

The New York Times ' Nagourney wrote up the Iowa weekend, featuring wannabes Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt, and John Kerry, from the perspective of "can Bush be beaten?", quoting one Matt Dowd on the topic of presidential job approval. LINK

The Rev. Al Sharpton finally will file the required paperwork with the FEC this morning at 9:30 am, with a media avail afterward;

Former Senator Gary Hart will address the Council on Foreign Relations in New York at 6:00 p.m..

And the Democratic National Committee, firmly ensconced in its temporary digs just south of K Street, is conducting a series of meetings with its top consultants, strategists and operatives to familiarize them with the DNC's new voter-file and field technologies for 2004.

On Wednesday, President Bush will head to St. Louis, where he'll make a phone call to the participants of the March for Life, then give a speech on the economy.

Senator Lieberman will spend Wednesday and Thursday in New Hampshire.

Thursday and Friday, Bush has no public events scheduled.

Also on Thursday, Senator Kerry will give a major foreign policy address at Georgetown University.

On Friday, Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle will offer his own pre-SOTU curtain-raiser in Cleveland.

And on Saturday, the Bushes will attend the Alfalfa Club Dinner at the Capitol Hilton Hotel.

Big Casino budget politics

Budgetary b-roll alert: "State and local officials are pinching pennies and raising money in small ways to dramatize the financial plight they blame on a weak economy," says USA Today . LINK

If you didn't read Sunday's Washington Post story on which GOP governors are raising taxes and which are not, you surely need to. LINK

Which is a bigger drag on national economic recovery: the state of the state budgets, or the state of foreign economies?

A David Rogers budget must-read in the Wall Street Journal (fascinating, but tough to ask about at a briefing, since Mr. Fleischer will muster up all his Ways and Means experience to muddy the waters): "From spending for black colleges to the Securities and Exchange Commission, President Bush is taking advantage of the budget impasse in Congress to put his own funding choices in the most benevolent light."

"Since much of the government is operating without permanent appropriations for this year, the White House enjoys a rare window in which it can pick whatever spending baseline it wants as a point of comparison for its coming 2004 budget, which is due out next month."

"In a series of recent press releases and radio addresses, the administration has seized the chance to maximize credit for popular spending increases that it knows will prove far less generous after lawmakers complete work on spending bills for fiscal 2003, which ends Sept. 30."

It's kinda complicated, but nothing Robert Krulwich couldn't explain …

You might think of this country as "the United States of America," but the New York Times ' Altman suggests it would be more accurately deemed "The Land of Double Taxation," and the president's dividends plan wouldn't change that. LINK

Paul Krugman goes back again to make the case that the new Bush tax cut disproportionately benefits the wealthy. LINK

But he DOES make the case in some new and interesting ways. His amazement that the terms of the debate aren't cast exclusively along those lines comes shining through.

SOTU

Several papers have marked the "axis of evil" anniversary.

From Elisabeth Bumiller's Monday New York Times story: "One thing is certain: A year later, White House officials say they have no regrets about the axis of evil formulation. 'Zilch,' said Mr. Fleischer." LINK

And from the Los Angeles Times : "With this year's address scheduled for Jan. 28 and the U.S. on the cusp of war with Iraq, the legacy of the 'axis of evil' weighs heavily on the speechwriters and policy-makers hard at work on Bush's speech. Even critics agree that the 'axis of evil' was a clever piece of rhetoric in explaining the president's policies to the American people. But as foreign policy, there is wide consensus that it exacerbated the dangers it attempted to contain." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Sometime this week, as Roll Call reported, DC City Councilman Jack Evans "is expected to introduce a bill … that would make Washington's 2004 presidential primary the first in the nation."

"The New Hampshire primary is currently scheduled for Jan. 27, 2004, and the PAC's proposal would place the District's Democratic and Republican presidential primaries one week earlier. A New Hampshire law directs that its primary be held "seven days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."

"But since the District is not a state, backers of the measure believe the New Hampshire law as written wouldn't require the Granite State to move its primary. Presumably the state could pass another law with language that would include D.C. in the directive, prompting New Hampshire to make its primary first once again."

IOWA AND THE LINN COUNTY CONFAB

World's best prom date Roger Simon had this to say on the Linn County Democratic cattle call, which drew half of the Six-Pack: "for me, the real news that I got from talking to voters in Iowa was threefold: how little enthusiasm there seems to be for Dick Gephardt, how Kerry is doing better than expected, and why Joe Lieberman might want to skip the state entirely." LINK

Then Roger addresses the "must win" dynamic: "The current media story line is that three candidates have "must-win" obligations in the first three states on the 2004 primary election calendar. Call it the Good Neighbors policy. Gephardt, who comes from neighboring Missouri, must win Iowa. Kerry, who comes from neighboring Massachusetts, must win New Hampshire, and John Edwards, who comes from neighboring North Carolina, must win South Carolina."

"What happens if they don't? Well, if they have money, nothing. They can keep running and trying to win elsewhere. But the media will declare them 'in trouble' and candidates in trouble always have difficulty raising funds."

"It is often said in politics that it is better to have a wrong strategy than to have no strategy at all (the Bob Dole 1996 presidential campaign is a good example of a no-strategy campaign) and Kerry has adopted the strategy of a national front-runner: He intends to win every contest he enters. He intends to beat Dick Gephardt Iowa, go on to New Hampshire eight days later and win there and then use his victories and status as the only combat veteran in the race to beat John Edwards in South Carolina, which has a lot of veterans."

"But where does this leave Joe Lieberman, the Democrat currently leading in the national polls?"

Possibly the worst nugget for Dick Gephardt in Dan Balz's overall bad-for-Gephardt Iowa story from Monday: "Vilsack said the former House leader should not count on union backing. 'The conventional wisdom assumes that labor is with Gephardt, and I don't know that that's true,' Vilsack said. 'I don't think that [labor unions] necessarily are sold on any candidate at this point. There are an awful lot of other groups that could provide a base for any candidate.'" LINK

The Boston Globe 's Johnson wrote for Monday: "Gephardt, who has near-favorite son status, is expected to win, so the race is expected to be for second place — or an upset." LINK

"Dean, who fashions himself a populist, took aim at the media and spared no quarter within his party."

Z. Barabak had this in the Los Angeles Times : "The candidates themselves failed to make the same vociferous case against Bush last fall when they were out stumping for congressional candidates but not yet officially running for president. Dean came closest, he pointed out Saturday, by being the only one of the three who opposed October's compromise resolution authorizing war with Iraq. Kerry and Gephardt straddled the issue by defending their votes as a necessary step toward rallying international opposition to Saddam Hussein, while at the same time faulting Bush, as Kerry suggested, for itching to go to war." LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Zeleny sees the specter of war looming over the next few months: "While an Iowa Poll late last year indicated that 69 percent of the state's residents supported using military force to topple Hussein, that figure does not give a clear picture of how voters are likely to react in the caucuses. Fewer than 100,000 people typically participate in the caucuses, evening political meetings in which people voice support for a candidate, and the party's liberal-leaning activists largely rule the event." LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Yepsen isn't terribly pleased, writing that the 2004 caucuses "could be similar to 1972, when the early caucuses helped propel an anti-war candidate to the Democratic nomination." LINK

"Many Iowa Democratic Party activists cut their teeth on the anti-Vietnam or civil-rights movements, and Bush is fanning those old coals. The biggest applause lines of the weekend occurred when the candidates bashed him over those issues."

Yepsen then transitions to the Linn County banquet.

"Gephardt got a warm, respectful reception, but one that seemed less passionate than the ones for Kerry and Dean. While Gephardt won the 1988 caucuses, he can't count on that old machinery again. Democratic leaders point out that his 1988 victory was engineered by the industrial unions that aren't as strong today. The clout in Iowa Democratic campaigns has gravitated to the public-employee unions. Party officials also say only 30 percent of Gephardt's 1988 supporters remain active today."

"It's hard to see how Gephardt wins much out of Iowa. Since he's won Iowa before, he'll be expected to do that again. If he does, it will be shrugged off as no big deal by the political community. But if he loses here, that will be seen as Iowans rejecting a man they once supported, and it will be a hard blow to his presidential hopes."

"Dean seems to be generating the most sustained enthusiasm. He's a new face who is unencumbered by Washington experiences, images and voting records. I'm told if you want to succeed in Vermont politics, you must master the art of the town meeting, a skill that easily translates into mastering the art of the precinct caucus. As an unemployed politician, he has loads of time to campaign in Iowa."

The AP's Glover sees several prime movers ahead of next year's caucus: President Bush's money advantage, Senator Tom Harkin's vow to endorse a Democratic hopeful before the caucuses, and the broad Democratic field itself: "While Gephardt starts the race with an edge, the unforgiving nature of politics conspires to make his life difficult. If he wins, he'll get little credit or momentum from the victory because everyone expects it." LINK

"The opportunity goes to his rivals. If a Kerry or Edwards or former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean scores an upset, he will be the story coming out of Iowa."

"Particularly in the case of Kerry, with his immense financial resources, a win in Iowa could translate into virtually unstoppable campaign momentum. That makes the stakes very high for Gephardt and the rest of the field in Iowa."

A Zogby poll (we know, we know) of likely Democratic voters (we assume caucus-goers?) in Iowa showed Gephardt keading the Six Pack in the state with 19 percent; his closest rival, former Gore running mate Joe Lieberman, got 17 percent (do those guys know where Lieberman is on ethanol?), and Kerry also broke into double digits with 11 percent; the rest were in single digits.

Classic Roger Simon: "In typical Iowa fashion, I interviewed a woman at a Democratic Party reception in Des Moines, and when I got home, I already had an e-mail from her following up on our conversation."

KERRY

Although the National Park Service was not around to give us a count, the consensus was that Kerry drew more than 500 people early on a cold, snowy Saturday morning to a breakfast in Des Moines. A year before the caucuses, that's an impressive number, but we ask: can anyone name single-candidate events EVER, even a week before the caucuses, for anyone, that have drawn that many? We'd love to build a list.

Kerry's campaign, as we said above, is smartly consolidating its advantages and momentum to sign people up and put things in place. His Hawkeye team of Crawford and Norris (and Pirozzi) ensures that each trip to Iowa hits the right balance of private/public events, and that Kerry is seeing the right people.

Iowa's leading Democratic strategist (fella by the name of "Vilsack," who conveniently brought some houseguests to the Kerry breakfast, and then stuck around in glasses and a very sexy jacket to be homaged over and over by Kerry) pointed out that Kerry's team built the crowd in part by snagging Democrats from around the state who were in town for the Governor's inaugural events the day before. But that was, the Governor said, a very clever thing to do.

The fact that Kerry jumped the gun and told the world about the Dyke-Norris Expected Bundle of Joy is testament to the campaign's buoyancy. If things were going badly, that would have been a major gaffe; instead, it was darling and endearing.

Kerry brought quite a staff contingent with him, spending some semi-serious coin a year out for a guy who hasn't committed to busting the state caps yet.

Media vision guy Jim Margolis did his best Frank Greer '91 imitation, hovering in casual clothes that matched the candidate's at the back of the various rooms, offering sphinx-like analysis of what the candidate was doing, and how he was doing it. Happy Warrior Margolis also made the classic consultant outfit change, putting on a necktie to show respect to Linn County's powerful and pork-loving Democrats.

We aren't going to get into the details here, but there was a cautionary Drudge/Kerry incident this past weekend, in which someone fed Drudge something to put on the web this weekend, which he did, which caused a flurry of Iowa and national(!) press questions to Kerry about something he said once upon a time about Iowa which, taken out of its obvious context, seemed to be critical of Iowa.

Reporters should know better, and be more careful, but the question IS begged: who sent that to Drudge (and was it the same person who sent the three sign-toting Young Republicans to the Linn County dinner, protesting on the same message)?

And do we need any clearer indication of who the Democratic frontrunner is right now?

Kerry and David Wade laughed it off in a good-natured way, but can't we all agree that we will check stuff out before we let Drudge become our assignment editor this cycle? Sometimes he is right, but sometimes …

Dubuquers really took a shine to Kerry and really seemed to want to compare him to the other JFK. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Washington covered Kerry in Richmond on MLK Day. LINK

"[T]he audience at the Martin Luther King Day event clearly enjoyed Kerry's remarks. They clapped enthusiastically as he criticized the Bush administration's decision to renominate Charles Pickering for appellate court. They liked it when Kerry said the Bush administration 'adds insult to injury' by opposing the admissions policy at the University of Michigan that uses race as one of its criteria."

"After his speech, which drew a standing ovation, Kerry said he had turned down an opportunity to appear at a Martin Luther King Day event in Michigan. Speaking to a black crowd in Richmond was what he needed to be doing, he said."

Maybe because Virginia's nominating contest could take place as early as Michigan's?

"Kerry confirmed yesterday that his team has asked Deval Patrick, a former Justice Department official and former Boston lawyer, to join in some capacity."

The Globe's Vennochi writes, "Mike Dukakis is running for president with longer legs, more expensive hair, and an even greater penchant for equivocating about being a liberal from Massachusetts." LINK

"Clearly, John F. Kerry, the junior senator from Massachusetts, is not just holding, but clutching the Dukakis-for-presidential-nominee handbook." And Vennochi clearly doesn't think that's sufficient to win.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The Manchester Union-Leader is presumably not mimicking Gov. Howard Dean when they bash the president's No Child Left Behind initiative today. And notice how the other Democrats are now following Dean on this issue big-time. "Congress and President Bush think they know how to end America's shortage of qualified teachers: Pass a law requiring that all teachers must be "highly qualified" by the 2005-06 school year. If only it were that easy." LINK

SHARPTON

The Reverend Al files paperwork with the FEC today and holds a press conference announcing the official formation of his presidential exploratory committee.

Quite a Martin Luther King event yesterday in Harlem, at which Sharpton had Schumer, Bloomberg, Clinton, Spitzer, and many other New York political luminaries paying homage to him. We would love to know why Spitzer (who came early) got to speak so late.

As she left the event and did a rocking curbside presser, Senator Clinton chose not to endorse her home-state favorite son for the White House, even after paying homage to him inside. She refused to say what he would bring to the race, or if she would welcome him into it.

At his Saturday press breakfast, Senator Kerry refused to say if he would consider Sharpton as a running mate, under the "I'm not commenting on running mates" rubric.

The New York Times ' Cooper writes up the Sharpton event with a focus on his mayoral beat, and the best of the Bloomberg/Sharpton by-play. LINK

Maggie's dad (a/k/a Clyde Haberman) writes up Sharpton's day, with some pretty key paragraphs: "He is also far more outspoken now about the need for many blacks to clean up their own acts. One new theme is a lament that 'many of us have allowed decadence to be our culture.' Yesterday, he complained to his almost entirely black audience about young blacks who put down scholastic achievement as 'acting white.'" LINK

"'Like something's black about flunking,' he said. 'We've got to correct this misnomer that there's something hip and black about being down, about acting like a thug and acting like a hood, and calling women ho's. There's nothing black about that. We are not the children of hoodlums and thugs and drug dealers and drive-by shooters. We are the children of people who took nothing and made something happen, that took no and turned it into a yes.'"

That part of the speech was brilliantly delivered, and this analysis ain't half bad: "Will this tonal change produce converts among those — blacks as well as whites — who see Mr. Sharpton as nothing but a huckster and a racial arsonist, who feel he has not fully atoned for sins like the Tawana Brawley farce or his inflammatory remarks about 'white interlopers' in Harlem?"

The New York Post downplays Sharpton's remarks, and plays up Senators Schumer and Clinton. LINK

Sharpton said on C-SPAN this morning that he is "the only anti-war candidate in this race," with which Howard Dean just might take issue.

SOUTH CAROLINA

Lee Bandy offers this helpful clip-n-save: "Here's a look at the candidates and the South Carolina leaders and staffers who have signed up with them: -- John Edwards — Columbia Mayor Bob Coble; state Senator Brad Hutto, D-Orangeburg; and state Rep. Bill Clyburn, D- Aiken. -- John Kerry — House Minority Leader James Smith, D-Richland; and Columbia businessman Sam Tenenbaum. -- Dick Gephardt — U.S. Rep. John M. Spratt Jr., D-S.C.; and former U.S. Rep. Butler Derrick, D-S.C. -- Howard Dean — State Rep. David Mack, D-Charleston; and Stephanie Schriock, finance director of the S.C. Democratic Party from 1998-99, hired as political director. -- Joseph Lieberman — Plans to announce his supporters when he visits South Carolina, possibly this week." LINK

Still missing from this list: cagey Rep. Jim Clyburn.

EDWARDS

Senator John Edwards gave speeches to largely black audiences in three South Carolina cities yesterday, which "served as a preview of themes expected to be central to Edwards' pitch as a presidential candidate with roots in the South," writes the Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner. LINK

"North Carolina Senator John Edwards says he supports the NAACP's boycott of South Carolina to protest the display of the Confederate flag on Statehouse grounds," the AP reports. "Edwards, who was in Columbia Monday for a Martin Luther King Jr. event, is the third Democratic presidential candidate to oppose the banner. He said he stayed at people's homes instead of hotels to honor the civil rights group's economic sanctions." LINK

In case you missed the home-state poll published in the Raleigh N&O on Saturday: "More North Carolina voters disapprove of Senator John Edwards' White House ambitions than approve, and George W. Bush would soundly defeat Edwards in his home state if the 2004 presidential election were held today … " LINK

"Underscoring the sales job Edwards has ahead, the poll found that 47 percent of active Tar Heel voters disapprove of the senator's decision to seek the presidency, compared with 39 percent who approve. The remaining 14 percent were unsure."

"If the 2004 election were held today, the poll found, Bush would win handily over Edwards in North Carolina, 56 percent to 40 percent."

"Aides to Edwards pointed to the backing among home-state Democrats as positive news."

"The poll found 47 percent of active Tar Heel voters do not believe Edwards is qualified to be president, while 38 percent believe he is. The remaining 15 percent are unsure."

"Asked to rate Edwards' job performance as a senator, 49 percent of those polled said 'excellent' or 'good,' while 40 percent said Edwards is doing a 'fair' or 'poor' job."

Seems like there's already a Democratic candidate for an open Edwards Senate seat. LINK

Tom Oliphant gives Edwards props on medical liability reform. LINK

GEPHARDT

Roll Call seems to report that Gephardt is keeping office space in the Capitol and some other perks from his Minority Leadership.

In an interview with the Portsmouth Herald, Gephardt apparently was asked to defend the notion that consecutive Democratic defeats in House elections were not devastating to the party's morale.

"'A couple of thoughts on that,' Gephardt said recently during a telephone interview with the Herald. 'Even though we lost the election in 2002, it wasn't an overwhelming loss. Seventy-five thousand votes either way, it would have gone to our side. We would have won the House back. Even though it was a loss for us, it was a very-near miss.'" LINK

GRAHAM

Senator Bob Graham came out against President Bush's University of Michigan brief, criticized former Illinois Gov. Jim Ryan for commuting death sentences, said he supports civil unions (but not gay marriage), and, yes, was "sounding more" and more like a candidate for office. LINK

Graham heads to Haiti for the rest of the week. He'll return to Washington next Tuesday.

Graham also defended his dairies, saying they didn't harm his chances of becoming the running mate in 2000. LINK

He compares them to a Palm Pilot, and seems to take George Will's view that it's all about his discipline as a person.

HART

Former Senator Gary Hart gave an interview to Ron Brownstein LINK

Here's the link to his new official website: LINK

On Today, Hart tested this line: "Let me say a word about scandal. Children in poverty is a scandal. People out of work is a scandal. Call what I did folly … " He said he'd run a clean campaign and not talk about the other hopefuls (though he allowed that he thought only two or three of the six were qualified).

And he said he'd decide by March.

LIEBERMAN

Lieberman will head to New Hampshire for the first time as a presidential candidate on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, he'll meet with students at St. Anselm's College Institute of Politics in Manchester, then stop at the Merrimack Restaurant. In Nashua, he'll meet with Democratic party activists and talk with reporters. Later on, in Salem, he'll attend a house party.

On Thursday, Lieberman will address the Portsmouth Sunrise Rotary Club, then hold another media avail. His last stop in the state will be a visit to the Caffenio Coffee Shop in Concord, where he'll once again huddle with party activists.

David Lightman's clip file would have written the story all by itself if its generator didn't get around to it first: Senator Joseph Lieberman's take on affirmative action, racial quotas, and racial preferences. In 1995, he seemed dead-set against racial preferences and didn't find a whole lot wrong with a California initiative to ban affirmative action.

Today, while disdaining "quotas," he says he favors affirmative action. Lieberman called President Bush's decision on the University of Michigan appeal "wrong."

Has he changed his position to court black voters? (Political relevancy: is he shifty?) Has his position been consistent? (Political relevancy: the press misunderstands him, willfully or otherwise.) Is he trying to claim that his position is consistent, when in fact it's not? (Political relevancy: he underestimates voters.) Has he sincerely rethought his position? (Political relevancy: he's a deliberative man … thoughtful … independent.)

Cue the tape.

"On March 9, 1995, before an audience of national reporters, Lieberman said of group policies: 'When we have such policies, we have the effect of breaking some of those ties in civil society that have held us together because [the affirmative action policies] are patently unfair.'" LINK

"Lieberman continued: 'Those who are the victims of [group preferences] and lose out when choices are made based on group preferences as opposed to individual ability naturally become disaffected from the process.'"

"Asked that day about the California initiative, Lieberman said: 'Looking at the wording of the Civil Rights Initiative in California, I can't see how I could be opposed to it," he said, "because it basically is a statement of American values … '"

"Lieberman today says that while he opposes quotas, which courts generally have banned, he sees nothing wrong with the Michigan system, which awards extra points to certain minority students as part of an overall admissions rating system."

"Such a system, he said Sunday on NBC's Meet the Press, is 'a response to the unfortunate reality that a lot of minority students go to schools that are under-performing, and to give them the opportunity to come up and make it into America's middle class they need that plus factor.'"

"Asked to square his present views with what he said regarding the California initiative, Lieberman responded, 'It was at a press conference. Reporters read that statement [details of the California plan] to me. Frankly, I said on the face of it, it sounds like basic American values to me. It doesn't mean the end of affirmative action. It meant the end of quotas."

"No one read him any such statement. A Scripps Howard reporter asked only: 'If you were a California resident, would you vote for [the initiative] and will the Democratic Leadership Council have a position on it?'"

"Lieberman, an active DLC member since coming to Washington in 1989, said that while he did not know the DLC view, he knew his own. 'I think we all want to say that we're against quotas," Lieberman said in March of 1995, 'and against group preferences, but there ought to be some room for the kind of outreach that has been part of affirmative action programs without getting into quotas.'"

"He spoke on the Senate floor that summer after Clinton offered a 'mend it, don't end it' policy on affirmative action. 'Most Americans who do not support equal opportunity and are not biased don't think it is fair to discriminate against some Americans in a way to make up for historic discrimination against other Americans," Lieberman said."

A few simple questions of our own might settle the issue: Senator Lieberman, can you point us to an example of an affirmative action program you like? One that doesn't, in any way, use quotas or points of some sort? One that doesn't revolve around group preferences? Is the Michigan program, which awards an applicant 20 points out of 150 solely for being black, the type of program you'd like to see other public universities take up?

We'll see you at the event tonight.

BIDEN

The Philadelphia Inquirer did some Biden dabbling this weekend. Go find it yourself, Mr. Gitenstein.

CLARK

The Register "updates" Wes Clark's odyssey. LINK

Politics

The Washington Times yesterday wrote up Senate Democratic Steering Committee chair Hillary Clinton's rising star. LINK

The Washington Post 's Sundance coverage includes this: "Al Gore showed up to support a movie about the Pill." LINK

Dear Mr. Former Vice President: your former '04 rivals referred to you fondly this weekend in Iowa. Apparently, they (too) think you and Bill Clinton did a damn good job.

The Washington Post 's Allen and Harris report on Bush's MLK Day speech yesterday, "A senior administration official said the White House was not worried about the effect of recent events on Bush's image in the African American community. 'If the reception today is any indication, it's another reminder that most Americans don't judge the president through the same political lens that people involved in Washington politics do,' the official said." LINK

Roy Innis said to Dr./Senator/Leader Frist last night in the Sheraton: "You are the Phoenix!"

The Daily News says Frist was dodgy on affirmative action before the CORE event. LINK

Further develop.m.ents in the case of the scandal-plagued union-owned insurance company Ullico. LINK

The Washington Post 's VandeHei and Eilperin look at how congressional Republicans have been poking holes in their own gift ban. LINK

Helen Dewar on Monday previewed Senator McCain's potentially troublesome (for the GOP) legislative agenda. < ahref=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15370-2003Jan19.html>LINK

The Washington Times looks at the voting conundrums ahead for conservative Democratic Rep. Rodney Alexander. LINK

Governor-elect Ed. Rendell (D) gets inaugurated in Pennsylvania today. LINK

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) was "cheered" at an MLK day prayer breakfast. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality

Jake Tapper, with his non-Sundancing hand, writes up one of the Rove books. LINK

Pushing off of Frum, Dick Morris compares leaking and political ambition in the Clinton White House to leaking and political ambition in the Bush White House and finds no comparison whatsoever. LINK

His conclusion: "George, you don't know how good you have it!"

And speaking of leaking, the Washington Post appears to be on something of an interesting jag, what with the (challenged) story about Dr. Rice and affirmative action, and yesterday's piece on the current 1600 SCOTUS thinking.

Questions about the Bush White House's media practices were being raised yet again by the Allen/Lane story Sunday on the supposed plans to pick a conservative Supreme Court nominee.

Given the thorough sourcing, this would appear to be: -- a failure of press management as the reporters found an informed official to defy the rules and chit-chat on background about politics and White House sausage making; or, -- a deliberate White House strategy to get the paper to float this balloon in order to reassure conservatives or send a screw-you message to Democrats; or, -- a semi-made-up story, in which the reporters take unexceptional background quotes from a person assigned to talk to the press and fashions them into something that sounds like news.

It could be the last option, a common practice. Once you strip it down, the story doesn't really say anything other than assert a certain mood or inclination among one or more Bush advisers. Beyond that, everything is hedged — Gonzalez might still be appointed, it depends who on the Court quits, etc.

Even so, the story does suggest a level of penetration into the White House — and a willingness by someone in the Administration to explain decision-making in a way that defies the reputation of an entirely sealed-off Presidency.

We wonder if the President wonders who talked, and who the Plumbers think did it.