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The Note is late today due to e-mail problems, and it is linkless and slightly less comprehensive due to Internet access difficulties.

But Washington clearly doesn't rule the nation, or else on the day the UN inspectors report back, and on the eve of what is widely being described as the most historically significant State of the Union in memory, the morning shows would have spent their first full hour on those matters, and not on Martha Stewart's lost income and the upside-down clown.

If you don't believe us about to what degree Washington is waiting with baited breath, ask the experts: Elisabeth Bumiller uses her New York Times "White House Letter" to interview a bunch of former SOTU scribes for past POTUSes, all of whom say they would looooove to write this one, which they claim (slightly overstating things, we think) will be "the most historically important State of the Union speech that any of them can remember."

(And keep in mind that NEXT year's SOTU will come smack in the midst of the Democratic nominating contest, and start pondering the implications of THAT.)

In DC, the next 48 hours — and indeed, the entire week, culminating in Tony Blair's scheduled visit on Friday — simply could not be a bigger deal. But you get the sense that the country isn't all that tuned in, at least not yet.

As we've said before, until and unless the build-up to war turns into actual war, The Note is largely staying out of the hostilities except to deal with their political implications. So look elsewhere today for your Blix Fix.

If George W. Bush's career in politics has been built around defying expectations, he had a promising weekend, with the Washington Post saying he was less powerful and more embattled than he was just a few weeks ago.

Thomas M. DeFrank of the New York Daily News found at least four (assuming no double counting) Republicans who each implicitly raise expectations for the president tomorrow night.

Here's one: "'Two months ago, this guy was invincible,' a prominent Republican political consultant mused. 'Today, he's viewed as extremely vulnerable.'"

Here's a second: "There's something in these numbers that says the American people want more from their President than they're getting,' a GOP official theorized."

"[S]ome Bush loyalists worry that while public opinion is notoriously fickle, Bush's slide in the polls could mask trouble doubts about his job performance on the eve of the 2004 election cycle," DeFrank writes. "Ironically, the twin issues that one historian called 'guns and butter' complicate Bush's selling job."

"He has to keep thumping both these drums, a Republican pollster said, but talking too much about Iraq will make some people wonder if he's giving short shrift to the economy.'"

DeFrank's editors saw fit to wrap the story around a large photograph of Bush leaving church yesterday with Karen Hughes, herself looking very nurturing. Hughes, DeFrank notes, "has been heavily involved in the drafting and editing."

For those who think Washingtonians only take positions for political purposes, consider the president and the Democrats on the war.

Given the preponderance of polling evidence, including the screaming headline in USA Today (the new Gallup Poll shows public opposition to actual war "at its highest level since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks"), it clearly isn't in the president's interests to adopt such a unilateral and aggressive posture. So it's perfectly reasonable to say he's doing it because he thinks it's the right thing, despite the potential political costs.

And surely no Democratic consultant would advise House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi or Senator Barbara Boxer or any of the other Democrats out there to sound so wishy-washy in saying they support the troops, they support the Commander-in-Chief, they support unilateral action when necessary, but kumbaya, can't we all just get along and give peace a chance?

The Washington Times ' Lambro notes how many of the Democratic presidential wannabes "are supporting President Bush's efforts to disarm [Hussein], but are sharply critical of his accelerated drive toward a war that their party's anti-war wing bitterly opposes."

Senators Kerry, Edwards and Lieberman and Congressman Gephardt "have been performing this political balancing act lately, though each voted in the fall for the congressional resolution … "

Lambro writes up the GOP's allegations that Senator Kerry is trying to "straddle" the issue with his Georgetown University speech last week.

Kerry on GMA this morning, after modestly rejecting the "frontrunner" label Ms. Tumulty and others (including The Note) have tried to pin on him, told Charlie Gibson that his position on Iraq is very clear. He's all for holding Saddam Hussein accountable, but doesn't think we have reached the point yet where the United States should be going to war.

In the latest sign of his stepped-up efforts to lead the party (or, at least, lead via press release), Senator Daschle's office yesterday rolled out his new "high-level National Security Advisery Group," which will "provide recommendations to the Senate Democratic Caucus about critical national security issues such as the war on terrorism, homeland security, and the structure and deployment of U.S. armed forces both at home and abroad."

The group includes potential presidential wannabe Wes Clark of CNN. We wonder how Clark will compartmentalize all of this.

Daschle and Pelosi offer their "pre-buttal" to the SOTU today at the National Press Club at 1:00 p.m..

The big domestic pieces out there on the eve of the SOTU continue to be the tax cut, which takes a hit in the Wall Street Journal today, and health care generally — all against the backdrop of an exploding deficit and a shrinking pot of available funds.

The Wall Street Journal seems to claim to have the goods on a "private" briefing that Alan Greenspan gave a bipartisan mix of Senators in which he is said to have suggested that he isn't so keen on a big tax cut, and, more specifically, that he isn't so keen on the dividend tax cut.

The Journal posits Senator Daschle's DOA comment on the dividend tax cut was fueled by his getting a briefing ON the Greenspan briefing, even though he wasn't actually there.

Another important Wall Street Journal story simultaneously profiles AARP chief William Novelli and looks at the organization's potential support for, or neutrality on, the president's Medicare proposal.

Here's the kind of fiscal bombshell suffering for more widespread attention because of the Budweiser replay zebra (which, OK, WAS funny): the Los Angeles Times ' Gosselin reports on "growing signs that, contrary to pronouncements of top administration officials, President Bush's budget for the next fiscal year will include comparatively little new money for homeland security and nowhere near what many experts say is needed to minimize chances of another terrorist attack."

"Administration officials hotly dispute suggestions that Bush will be stinting in his homeland security request, alternately arguing that the category will be among the most generously funded in next year's budget and that some of the money already being expended has been wasted."

Last Friday, we touted for you Bill Keller's stupendous New York Times Magazine must-read about the Bush presidency. We can say without hyperbole or fear of contradiction that it is one of the very best things we have ever read about George W. Bush.

Keller makes too many insightful points to reproduce them here, but as busy as everyone is today, we still strongly recommend that you read every word.

Where Keller sees strength and likely future success, the Washington Post 's EJ Dionne jumps off many of the same points to construct a much different World of 43.

Writing in the Washington Post 's Outlook section yesterday, EJ came up with his own must-read, marshalling polling numbers to suggest that the president is now plenty weak, and arguing that the presidency is breaking down because Bush needs bipartisan support for his war aims, but is being so partisan about everything that Democrats are turning their backs on him.

If you think for even a moment that Democrats are open to being courted by the president, or that they are over the 2002 elections, check out the head-shaking, angry quotes from Senators Durbin and Landrieu about the White House's use of the homeland security issue, especially against former Senator Max Cleland (D).

Also today, Senator John McCain will address the Alexandria, VA Chamber of Commerce as part of their Platinum Speaker Series.

SOTU responder Gary Locke, who is also the governor of Washington state, arrives in DC later today, with a media avail scheduled and a full plate of events tomorrow.

On Tuesday, President Bush will meet with his Cabinet in the morning before delivering the SOTU that night.

Wednesday, Bush will head to Grand Rapids, MI to talk about Medicare and prescription drugs.

Also on Wednesday, the Republican National Committee will kick off its winter meeting at the Mayflower Hotel in DC. The meeting will feature a speech by Vice President Cheney, more 72-hour trail-blaising, closed briefings on how to spend and raise money under the current law, and the formal signing ceremony giving New York the 2004 convention, which will take place on Friday.

On Thursday, Bush will make remarks commemorating the first anniversary of the USA Freedom Corps at the Boys and Girls Club of Washington, DC.

And on Friday, President Bush will take part in the aforementioned joint press availability with British Prime Minister Tony Blair at Camp David.

Also this week, two Bush nominees for the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals will have their hearings on Wednesday, and nominee Miguel Estrada will come up for his Judiciary Committee vote on Thursday.

On the persisting buzz about a SCOTUS nomination for White House chief counsel Al Gonzalez, USA Today 's Biskupic writes, "[C]onservatives close to the White House are quietly trying to derail the potential nomination of a top aide to the president … [C]onservatives inside and outside the administration have long suspected that Gonzalez … does not agree with them on key social policy issues — namely, their opposition to abortion and affirmative action."

"Conservative activists who have been successful in persuading Bush to nominate several hard-right candidates to lower federal courts have made it clear to reporters, Bush aides and others that they do not believe Gonzalez is Supreme Court material."

SOTU:

The Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein asserts/predicts that tomorrow night, Bush "will continue to define himself as a president as willing to go to war at home as abroad."

"Aides say Bush will recommit himself to a series of ambitious goals certain to incite intense political conflict: passing a massive tax cut when the federal budget has already fallen into deficit, imposing the most fundamental structural changes on Medicare since its inception … , and rallying opinion in America and around the world for a possible invasion of Iraq."

"'When he gets done with his speech, people will say he is willing to take on big issues and big challenges and to use his political capital to achieve great ends,' one senior White House aide said."

"That tendency to swing for the fences is becoming a signature of Bush's presidency … As he prepares for a State of the Union speech that will continue that pattern, the key political question is whether Bush is being bold or reckless — whether he is shrewdly pressing his advantages or overreaching in a way that will crystallize opposition and weaken him."

" … Bush is displaying a distinct strategy for retaining the initiative. Rather than trying to blend the priorities of the two parties into a new consensus — as Bill Clinton often tried — Bush plants his banner at the edge of public opinion, believing he can pull the debate in his direction, as if by magnetic attraction."

"In Bush's camp, there's a growing sense that the shifts in public attitudes toward his specific policies may determine his prospects for reelection in 2004 far less than broader judgments about his style of leadership."

Compare that "'big issues/big challenges'" line with what Mike Allen has on the SOTU and the war today: "A senior administration official said Bush's discussion of Iraq in the 9 p.m. address … 'will not be eye-popping revelatory.'"

"'The Iraq section of the State of the Union will be informative and highly educational, but it won't be the last word … It will be a discussion with the public … '"

"Before turning to Iraq and other security issues, Bush will spend the first half of his roughly 50-minute speech trying to show he is chastened by the economic and health care worries facing his administration and the country, officials said."

"In a reflection of Bush's effort to show he is attuned to working-class concerns at a time of sour economic indicators, he does not plan to repeat his declaration in last year's address that 'the state of our union has never been stronger.' Officials said the address will be crucial to recapturing voters' sympathy as he heads into his formal re-election campaign."

"Officials said that during the domestic portion of the speech, Bush will try to put the onus on Democrats by calling on them to support his plans for a new tax cut and a reorganization of Medicare, and he will cite the precedent of Democrats joining Republicans to pass his first tax cut and his education plan … "

"One official said Bush will emphasize 'priorities, not a litany or laundry list or series of microbursts.' Another official said Cabinet secretaries had little input into the speech."

Gary Locke gets a medium-sized New York Times profile, the last two graphs of which tell you much of what you need to know. The very last word of the story is, literally, "'Yikes!'"

USA Today 's Page writes up the one-year anniversary of the "axis of evil." "Those three words … are the most memorable statement from Bush during his presidency, at least so far. They have defined his year and continue to complicate his life."

"[T]he phrase … stands as a reminder of the power of a president's words."

"Bush hasn't repeated the phrase since August. White House officials decline to say whether it will re-emerge in Tuesday's address."

Here's the link to the Democratic party's pre-emptive truth-squadding, shall we say: LINK

Big Casino budget politics:

Hardly a bombshell, but of some symbolic value, is USA Today 's Hall's report that one year after Bush rolled it out during his 2002 SOTU, the Citizen Corps is taking a funding hit.

In addition to his mega SOTU piece, Mr. Brownstein also offers a column on how cash-strapped states may increasingly turn to slots.

The economy:

Twin economic red flags in the Wall Street Journal : A1 says even a quick war might not lead to a stock rebound, and a column on A2 from Davos says the Hero of the Early 21st Century, the American consumer, might be starting to buck and wheeze.

Legislative agenda:

The New York Times ' Robert Pear (of course) moves on temporarily from the Medicare/prescription drug proposal to another likely element of the Bush health care reform effort: allowing small businesses to band together to buy insurance in pools (known as "association health plans").

States are up in arms because of the lack of regulation of these entities, and the story claims that all of this is being kicked up for the sake of insuring (by CBO numbers) an additional 330,000 people.

Hill beat newcomer Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times continues to write about the appropriations process with a wide-eyed wonder and innocence that would make Rep. David Obey scrunch up his face. But we find it delightfully refreshing!

The impassioned duo of Bartlett and Steele write in Time about the unfairness of payroll taxes, and even set former Senator John Ashcroft up as a (paper tiger) hero at the end.

A survey by Gary Andres' firm is generating buzz among Republicans on the Hill suggesting that "Republicans have more to fear from doing too little than from trying to pass too much legislation," per the Washington Times .

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

Roger Simon's ear to the ground is one of the finest early warning systems in all of American political journalism — right up there with what happens whenever Howard Fineman gets some quality thinking time alone on the treadmill.

So it comes as little to no surprise to us that Roger is the first to report out that Rep. Dick Gephardt, pleading a scheduling conflict, plans to turn down the New Hampshire Democratic party fundraiser late next month.

Simon Says that the REAL reason for skipping this event, and maybe others, is to avoid sharing too many stages at this point with Howard Dean and Al Sharpton, whose ability to (as they say in basketball) go left (and, often, to pump up the volume) might not work to Gephardt's advantage.

And maybe some of the other candidates feel that way, too. Some of the early cattle calls that we all currently have on our calendars may well not pan out. Just how many "yes" RSVPs, we wonder, do they have up in Concord, NH?

The Boston Globe 's Johnson's Sunday column is now a must-read for anyone needing some weekend smack. Yesterday, Johnson wrote up John Kerry's recently tenuous relationship with discretion, Howard Dean's sniping, and Joe Lieberman's encouraging New Hampshire endorsement.

David Broder used his Sunday column to sit back and wonder whether Lieberman and Sharpton can succeed in winning their niche voters in crowded contests.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Awesome Sunday piece in the Union Leader/Sunday News about the last decade or so of the New Hampshire economy.

Whether or not you are old enough to remember what stood on the current site of the Verizon Center in the winter of 1991 (when Bill Clinton and Pat Buchanan knew just what to say about things … ), this is a must-read for anyone who doesn't want to be condemned to repeat the mistakes of the Granite State economic past.

Plugged in Concord-based Gore fundraiser Debby Butler has cast her lot with Gov. Howard Dean; listening to him thrice this past week convinced her.

"Every time I left my heart was saying: "this is the guy," she said.

SOUTH CAROLINA

Another GOP state party, acting with apparent independence, welcomed a Democratic presidential candidate to their state right on message with the national party and the White House.

On Sunday, the South Carolina GOP fired off a release charging that Senator Joe Lieberman has taken more than one position on affirmative action.

Amazing how these things happen.

ARIZONA

Senator Joe Lieberman will visit Phoenix today, starting off with a closed meeting with state legislators, then sitting down with Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), after which the two will hold a media availability. Lieberman will then attend a reception with the Maricopa County Supervisor and local party activists.

DEAN

In a rather brutal column today, Roll Call 's Mort Kondracke finds two heads to the Dean anti-war message.

In Iowa, Dean says often, "I'm the only candidate who didn't vote to go to war.'" During a Roll Call editorial board last week, Dean said that if Bush presented "evidence that Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction, 'then I'd go back to the U.N and get new resolution that [Hussein] either disarms in 60 days or we go in."

"While Dean is refreshingly straightforward on some issues … there are other cases where he's been less than' unambiguous.'"

For example: "He denies he's for government price controls of prescription drugs but his plan probably would end up with controls inasmuch as the Medicare system would run it and he'd permit imports from Canada, where prices are controlled."

But: "'He's trying to be Josiah Bartlet,' said a top Washington Democratic operative. 'The only trouble is, Bartlet is charming as well as blunt and smart. I don't think Dean shows very much charm or warmth."

"But he can be blunt and partisan," writes Kondracke," and that may prove charming to Democratic primary voters."

EDWARDS

The The Wall Street Journal ed board does its own post-touchdown end zone dance over last week's defeat of the attempt in the Senate to delay the implementation of some clean-air regs. And they tauntingly thrust the football in the face of a certain senior Senator from the Tar Heel State.

GEPHARDT

"[A]llies" of Rep. Dick Gephardt are dropping hits of an image make-over, per Roll Call , who obtained an "unsigned talking points memo distributed to Gephardt supporters."

No specifics, but the memo says that Gephardt "will reintroduce himself … as a Midwestern success story, who has taken the values and lessons learned from his parents, teachers and community and forcefully applied them to his politics and ideas.'"

"'If one person is most responsible for the downfall of Newt Gingrich and his revolution, it is Dick Gephardt,'" Roll Call quotes from the memo. The article also reports that the first major Gephardt fundraiser will be held in Georgetown at the home of Bill and Maria Titelman on February 4.

KERRY

As Noted above, Time steps up to the plate and wonders whether Kerry is the frontrunner.

Crafty Karen Tumulty looks at all the right indices to draw her judgment (which she hangs on "the Democratic cognoscenti"), and wet-kisses Michael Whouley, about whom we are still waiting for a press release, even though we know he's not really a press release kind of guy.

Kerry "has assembled the strongest and toughest team of campaign operatives, including Michael Whouley … "

"That's the kind of thing even the White House notices. 'See who gets Whouley,' a senior official there fretted a few months ago. 'He really matters.'" (The Note best the official wasn't actually fretting, but Whouley IS one of the few Democratic operatives Team Rove respects.)

The story also says that Edwards was "flat" at the NARAL confab last week, and that Dean and Sharpton shone.

The piece is an IP must-read.

SHARPTON

The New York Times spent Saturday with the Reverend Sharpton in the House of Justice's temporary Harlem digs.

Politics:

Rift? What rift? Roll Call reports that Dr./Senator Bill Frist consults about once a day with his predecessor, Trent Lott, for advice.

Also per Roll Call , Rep. Nancy Pelosi is expected to tap former Clinton HHS official Melissa Skolfield to do the Minority Leader's big-think strategizing.

The Republican National Committee's Jim Dyke takes a moment away from preparing for (fatherhood and) this week's press-saturated winter committee meeting to give the New York Times business section a quote on the age-old practice of generating astroturf letters to the editor via the web.

All of you Washington wannabes who hire publicity agents to figure out how to get some free ink should probably save that coin and simply take Donna Brazile to lunch and pick her brain.

Ms. Brazile's incredible run of media attention continued this past weekend, with a lovely photo and a little interview in the Washington Post Magazine.

Carole Jean Jordan is the new chair of the Republican Party of Florida.

We presume Gov. Jeb Bush is looking forward to his case of California wines, fish taco dinner at Rubio's Baja Grill in San Diego, and some of California's finer agricultural products, courtesy of Raiders fan Gray Davis.

Man, that New York Times Book Review can be brutal.

This past weekend brought four reviews that weren't so glowing: 1) Richard Perez-Pena on the Liebermans, 2) James Stewart on Greg Vistica's Bob Kerrey book, 3) Jeff Shesol on David Frum, and 4) Beverly Lowry on the Susan McDougal book.

Unsung hero Maureen White made the Sunday Styles correction section in the New York Times .

Fred Dicker reports that longtime New York state election administrator Thomas Wilkey, who happens to be a Democrat, won't be the state's designee to receive millions of federal money due to New York as part of the new election reform law. Instead, Wilkey's deputy, Republican Peter Kozinski, will be listed as the state's chief elections official. Dicker doesn't make it clear whether Wilkey is being fired, demoted, or left in some sort of limbo, though he implies that Wilkey is thinking about a lawsuit.

Page Six whispers that Denise Brown, sister of Nicole Brown Simpson, is eyeing Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's Senate seat.

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

With the president's "Leave No Child Behind" achievement still one that regularly makes the top of the talking points list of Bush accomplishments, every story suggesting its partial unraveling is worth Noting.

But when Time front-of-the-books the Nebraska Republican political establishment talking about trampling states' rights and "micromanaging local decisions," well, special attention must be paid.

Sunday's Washington Post Metro section did its version of Todd Purdum's story from a few weeks ago about why the Bushes don't go out to party all that much in DC, with a focus on area restaurants.

The Washington Post 's Pianin writes up how, in the absence of Democratic control of either chamber of Congress, environmental groups are increasingly turning to the courts to fight the administration.

Democratic Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania revives the steel tariff debate in a Washington Times op-ed in which he calls on President Bush to refrain from granting any more exclusions.