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The dual conventional wisdoms have been that he who seeks to capitalize on the greatest tragedy to hit America at home does so at his own peril, and/but also that political strategists always seek to exploit widespread emotions among the electorate to their advantage.

And surely there will be a lot of emotion around this chapter of American history for a good long while.

President Bush to date has neatly taken advantage of the war against terror, surrounding himself with emergency response personnel on fundraising roadtrips to bolster his own poll numbers and his party's financial coffers for 2002, and appearing in TV ads for GOP Senate candidates in attempts to pass along some of that wartime popularity.

Today, however, brings news of an arguably much more naked, definitely White House-cleared, Republican party effort to take advantage of the tragedy for political gain.

In political fundraising, lines between accepted practices and the unseemly, and between the unseemly and the legally suspect, are often in the eye of the beholder.

These standards shift all the time, to the point where, for instance, there once was a media maelstrom when Bill Clinton tried to attend closed fundraisers after the White House coffees were revealed, whereas now, President Bush does it all the time.

Ronald Reagan did donor maintenance events at the White House, but that was somehow deemed OK at the time, and now is viewed as taboo in many quarters.

So we're not sure how the Great Arbiters of What's OK and What's Not OK will react to this doozy of a scene-setting AP report, which your finer papers seem to have gone to press too soon to include, but which conveniently runs on the day Republicans are likely to top the previously biggest political fundraising record known to man or beast: the $26.5 million one-night intake from a Democratic National Committee fundraiser featuring then-President Clinton and Vice President Gore.

As the Republican National Committee anticipates raking in up to $30 million tonight at its Presidential Gala featuring Bush and Vice President Cheney, "congressional Republicans sought to reward donors with a Sept. 11 photo of Bush aboard Air Force One."

Note that this photo is in connection with a FUTURE GOP fundraising dinner, the joint House/Senate GOP dinner taking place in June — not the RNC gala tonight.

Meanwhile, around DC today, the AP throws in for good measure that a collection of Administration folks will be gathering with top GOP donors in a program similar to that arranged and somewhat ballyhooed last year at this same time, when the party's big contributors came to town for the annual gala. You remember, when Dick Cheney had everyone over to the residence?

"The photo of Bush calling Vice President Dick Cheney from the presidential plane just hours after the terror attacks is part of a three-picture set the National Republican Senatorial Campaign and its House counterpart promises to anyone who donates $150 or more to attend their joint fund-raising dinner next month," the AP reports.

"The photos depict 'the defining moments of "The First Year' of the George W. Bush presidency,' a fund-raising mailing says."

"The pictures show 'the gritty determination of our new president at his inauguration; a telephone call from Air Force One to Vice President Cheney the afternoon of Sept. 11, 2001; and President Bush's historic State of the Union speech before a joint session of Congress that united a nation and a world,' it says."

"In an accompanying letter, Cheney tells prospective donors the dinner has special meaning this year."

"'It is an opportunity to honor President Bush for his courageous leadership during this historic time and to thank you for making that leadership possible through your steadfast support of President Bush and his agenda,' Cheney wrote."

"Cheney drew criticism from campaign watchdog groups a year ago for holding a reception for about 400 top Republican donors at the vice presidential mansion on the eve of the RNC gala."

"A Republican official said the photos were licensed and therefore not believed to be the work of an official White House photographer."

And, from what looks like a previous write thru of the AP story: "Republican 'Eagles' — those who donate at least $15,000 annually to the RNC — were invited to meetings with administration officials earlier Tuesday. The speakers include Commerce Secretary Don Evans, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christie Whitman, Education Secretary Rod Paige and Bush political adviser Karl Rove."

Now. This all raises a number of questions.

First of all, how long before the White House gives up the Bush photo so we can all make TV out of it? They will, of course, be reluctant to turn it over (since, once they do, the whole thing becomes a "better" television story), but, in the end, about what are they embarrassed?

Second, was the photo really taken by a private photographer and/or not at taxpayer expense?

Third, will the administration — which already has gotten "caught" selling private briefings from, and access to, Cabinet members and national security officials — reveal any more details about whom among their ranks are spending part of their day today briefing big donors, and on what?

We don't want to sound like Johanna-One-Notes here, but what would the Republicans be saying if Bill Clinton did any of this stuff?

And yes, yes, much of the money being raised tonight would be outlawed if the applicable sections of McCain-Feingold aren't thrown out by the courts.

Also tonight, the Democratic Senate campaign committee will hold its annual Taste of the States fundraiser, with a rather smaller intake expected than the RNC's, but as we noted yesterday, the Senate arm of the Democratic party seems to be the only one keeping up with its GOP counterpart.

Also today, Newark, NJ will hold its knock-down, drag-out mayoral election. Polls opened at 6:00 am and will close at 8:00 p.m.. A June run-off will take place if no candidate — there's a third, in addition to Mayor Sharpe James and challenger Cory Booker — takes 50 percent. Election monitors will be on hand.

Given the state's and the city's fabled reputation for political hijinks, and how close this race could end up being, we can't rule out some sort of controversy this evening. See below for more details on balloting procedures and the race generally.

Apparently in part because the spots weren't focus-grouped in advance, says The Wall Street Journal on B1, "[t]he new U.S. drug czar, John P. Walters, says the government's antidrug advertising of recent years has failed. Worse, he fears it even may have inspired some youngsters to experiment with marijuana." World News Tonight might want to consider this one also.

An ABCNEWS.com poll set for release today shows that 73 percent of respondents, when read the Second Amendment verbatim, agree that it guarantees the right of citizens to own guns. By the same token, most Americans still support certain boundaries and support certain forms of gun control.

ABCNEWS's Schindelheim, a self-described bear on the economy, says "Very good news for the economy today … New data shows consumers bought more last month than the previous month."

"Retail sales for April were $300.3 billion dollars, up 1.2% from March. This is the biggest increase since October 2001. Biggest gains were in building and garden supplies, gasoline (because of higher prices), and health and beauty items. When you take cars and gas out of the mix, it was still a solid 1% gain."

"Look for a very strong open of the stock market because of the numbers."

From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was expected to speak to Parliament Tuesday after 30 members of the legislature signed a petition calling on him to explain his policies regarding a future Palestinian state. In pre-dawn incursions, Israeli forces raided several West Bank villages, killing two Palestinian intelligence officers and arresting 13 suspected militants.

Various media reports suggest that Arafat is under rising pressure from abroad and within to radically reform the Palestinian Authority and crack down on corruption.

Foreign ministers of NATO and Russia are holding talks in Reykjavik aimed at finalizing a landmark deal that would tie Russia closer to its former Cold War foe. The two sides will move toward finalizing a new NATO-Russia council, involving Russia in the alliance's decision-making process for the first time. The new council also will put Russia on an equal footing with NATO's existing members for the first time. The two-day meeting will also discuss plans for what will probably be the largest single intake of new members in NATO's history. Secretary of State Colin Powell attends.

Trade Politics

President Bush is threatening to veto trade promotion authority if it hits his desk with a provision allowing Congress "to make changes in certain cases," the AP's Espo reports.

"[A] senior trade official said Monday that members of the Cabinet would recommend against a presidential signature if the amendment is approved."

"Another official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the administration was hoping to deflect (Senators) Craig and Dayton's amendment with a non-binding proposal of their own. One possible approach would be to direct trade negotiators as a matter of policy not to reach agreements that would weaken existing laws designed to counter unfair competition."

Veto threats are almost as rare in this Administration as are vetoes (none so far). We'll be interested to see if this one proves effective.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Surely this isn't (still more) testimony to any unhappiness or lack of satisfaction with the current entrants in the 2004 derby on the part of the press or Democrats.

The Daily News story yesterday about Mrs. Clinton running in 2004 actually produced a wire story, and tons of cable chatter. Neal Travis knocks it down for all the right reasons.

Tim Russert went on Today today to say that according to his reporting, it's virtually certain that Senator Clinton won't be anyone's veep choice in 2004, but that if Bush is re-elected, her friends all say she will run for president in 2008.

The Daily News does its own second-day "story," with rah-rah quotes from Geraldine Ferraro, but the best part of story (by Tim Burger, who really covers the heck out of the Clintons) is the kicker quote from Clinton's spokeswoman, sounding positively Lockhartian: "'Go away,' spokeswoman Karen Dunn said yesterday. 'It just sells papers. I saw "Spider-Man." I know how newspapers work.'"

Will the left-leaning press EVER get the least bit sick of covering John McCain? This bizarre boomlet over the notion of McCain running for president as a Democrat just keeps rolling along.

Sunday, the spectacle DID produce a rare, great moment in which one charter member (maybe THE charter member) of the Chattering Class' Gang of 500 took on another member in a sweeping manner so tart, we need to quote the whole applicable paragraph. p> Dean David Broder, in his column, dismissed all the talk about McCain switching parties, and wrote this: "The adulation is also visible in a new book by veteran Washington journalist Elizabeth Drew, 'Citizen McCain.' In addition to a detailed recounting of last year's successful battle for campaign finance reform (viewed almost entirely from McCain's perspective), Drew suggests that it was McCain, more than the president, who steadied the nerves of the American people in the aftermath of 9/11, providing the necessary strength and reassurance. I could have sworn it was Bush in the pulpit of the National Cathedral and on the rostrum of the House of Representatives, but my memory is often faulty."

Although Ms. Drew has yet to be heard from publicly on that jaw-breaking, Jonathan Chait, writing in the New Republic online, has responded to Broder's dismissal of their piece saying McCain could/should switch.

Chait makes some interesting points about the list of issues McCain himself has ticked off, suggesting that he wouldn't be welcome in the Democratic party because of some of his conservative stands.

And is it just us, or does McCain and his staff's touting of the list have the feel of a trial balloon?

We've never been a big fan of this parlor game of McCain switching, but …

On his next trip to New Hampshire, scheduled for the weekend of June 21, Senator John Edwards will hit the 2002 Merrimack County Pig Roast/Pot Luck at the home of Mary Beth Walz and Harry Judd. We wonder whether Edwards will bring a covered dish.

The local press has noticed that Edwards is sending press releases to the Granite State.

We like this one in the Boston Herald today: "The nation's first offshore wind energy farm would sit within eyesight of the oceanfront homes of the Bay State's two leading Democrats: Sens. Edward M. Kennedy and John F. Kerry."

"But Kerry isn't worried the ocean view from his Nantucket home would be spoiled by the 170-windmill farm nearly 14 miles away … 'In certain places I have found them to very aesthetically acceptable,' said Kerry. 'Indeed, some of them can even be quite beautiful.'"

But: "A source close to Kennedy said the senator is 'less than thrilled' about the proposed site in the waters where he frequently sails."

We told you yesterday about the very real chance that the GOP will hold its 2004 convention very late.

Today, we'll tell you about a bundle of obstacles to that announcement. We've checked, and 13 states have hard and fast, late August and early September deadlines for candidate nominations, in part because election officials need time to print ballots.

Those states are Alabama, Alaska, the District of Columbia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Texas, Utah, and Virginia.

For example, Michigan's code says this: "The chairperson and the secretary of the state central committee of each political party shall, within 1 business day after the conclusion of the state convention, forward by registered or certified mail a certificate containing the names of the candidates for electors to the secretary of state." By statute, the time frame for state party conventions are tied to the election day. In 2004, they need to take place by September 6.

The legislatures theoretically could change the dates by amending the laws, or they could vote in favor of some sort of waiver. But as of this year, Democrats could throw boulders in at least eight states. So stay tuned.

The Washington Post reports, "A federal judge yesterday denied Democratic fundraiser Maria Hsia's request to delay her sentence while she appealed to the Supreme Court her conviction for her role in a 1996 fundraiser for Al Gore at a Buddhist temple in California. Hsia, 50, was convicted of violating campaign finance laws by funneling more than $100,000 in illegal donations to Democratic candidates. She was ordered last year to serve 90 days of home detention, followed by nearly three years of probation. U.S. District Judge Paul L. Friedman ordered Hsia to report to the federal probation office within 15 days. Friedman ruled that it was highly unlikely the Supreme Court would take up her case following a unanimous, unsigned opinion from the Court of Appeals in December that rejected her appeal."

Politics

To get a sense of the regional diversity in reaction to the farm bill, contrast the emphases of these two news stories. The first is from the Sacramento Bee. The headline is, "Bush signs costly farm bill loaded with subsidies," and the article focuses on the fear that European producers will retaliate.

Coverage in the Midwest was largely laudatory, as in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's take, which focused on the state's two jubilant Senators, Mark Dayton and Paul Wellstone.

And the Des Moines Register says that adhesive bandage on Tom Harkin's mouth is from the removal of a pre-cancerous lesion this past weekend.

What happens when it rains in the BosWash corridor? Amtrak becomes the preferred mode of transportation for the rich and famous and powerful.

Which is how we ended up yesterday, according to a Little Birdie, with the spectacle of Bill Clinton and Dan Rather training southward last night, from New York to DC, when who should join them in transit but Senator Bob Torricelli.

We are looking for some more eyewitness accounts, for things like number of trips to the AmCafe, and whether they rode in the quiet car.

To paraphrase the Kennedy quote, there hasn't been that much political brainpower on a southbound Amtrak since Joe Biden rode alone.

The trio avoided this suicide tragedy that befell another Amtrak train yesterday; . note the quote from the "other" Karen Dunn

New Jersey

Some facts about the Newark mayoral race.

It's the most expensive city race the state has ever seen. More than $400,000 or will be spent on get-out-the-vote efforts alone. Campaign workers will get between $75 and $100 today to shepherd voters to the polls. And we wonder (not) if there will be any extra cash floating around on the street.

Analysts think the senior vote will be important, which is the one of the reasons why GOTV matters, which is one of the reasons why the Justice Department will be watching.

There are 169 polling sites across the city. Aside from the Newark Police Department, about two dozen state police officers also will keep watch.

Election administration: voting systems are automatic lever machines. The city clerk's office counts the votes. Provisional ballots are accepted. If poll workers or candidate representatives called "challengers" think a voter's signature doesn't match what's on the voter rolls or is somehow fraudulent, they can prevent their vote — but the voter can appear before one of four federal judges on call for today's election.

If no candidate gets 50 percent plus one vote, a June 11 run-off will take place. According to the Newark Star-Ledger, the most recent mayoral run-off happened back in 1982.

The Washington Times ' write-up of the New Jersey GOP Senate primary, in which three relatively unknown candidates are battling for the right to take on Democratic incumbent Robert Torricelli, is perhaps most interesting for the Senator's counterargument: "The senator's response, theorized Mr. Rebovich, would be along the lines of, "'I was not indicted, and this is a Republican conservative conspiracy because they want control of the Senate. And if we elect a Republican, he'll be outflanked by the conservatives, and there will be cuts in federal aid for transportation and education.'"

West Virginia

Primary day: Democrats will select either Margaret Workman or Jim Humphreys to take on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Pennsylvania

As expected, the NRA will spend money to help state Auditor Bob Casey try and defeat Ed Rendell in next week's Democratic gubernatorial primary.

North Carolina

This morning, the North Carolina Democratic Party will hold its previously postponed press conference intended to tweak Elizabeth Dole for allegedly refusing to discuss issues and for refusing to debate her GOP opponents.

California

Gov. Gray Davis will release updated budget figures today.

The chairman of the state's Joint Budget Committee, a Democrat, said this yesterday: raise taxes or cut services dramatically. Republicans say they will work to forestall any tax increase.

A $260,000 donation from the pipe-fitters union is the latest from the well of Gov. Gray Davis fundraising stories. The plumbers are happy that a state agency prevented the replacement of copper water piping with plastic water piping. And, they say, they like the Governor.

"The governor's weekend fund-raising activities — punctuated by lengthy conference calls with his staff about the state's potential $22 billion budget shortfall — also included a Monterey County golfing event that netted Davis more than $400,000."

Florida

With the legislature now gaveled to a close, Gov. Jeb Bush (R) said yesterday that he finally could afford to be more partisan.

Of Democrats, "'Where were they in the eight years prior to the Republicans gaining control in the Legislature?' Bush asked. 'Where was the moaning then?'"

"Bush said it was 'undeniable' that education has received more money during his first four years in office, calling the Democrats 'sinners.'"

"'What they'd need to do is say, "I was a sinner, I apologize for my neglect," then I would respect them a little bit more, but they don't,' he said."

The budget signed by Bush includes $1 billion for education — but the Palm Beach Post claims that schools will receive $39 per student more than they got in 2001.

"A proposal to ban smoking at most indoor workplaces in Florida, including restaurants, has won a spot on the state's November ballot." The "proposal would outlaw smoking in restaurants, except for outdoor seating areas, and in all enclosed workplaces, including employee break rooms."

New York

The New York Post says that state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (whose ambition to be governor some day seems as big as all outdoors … .) will draw a Pataki-drafted sacrificial lamb opponent who one "GOP operative" described as a "Latina yuppie."

Dick Morris says Pataki is cleverly triangulating in anticipation of a match-up against Andrew Cuomo who, he says, ain't ready for the big league.

Iowa

At a candidate forum "that at times had the feel of a Salier rally," GOP Senate candidates Bill Salier and Rep. Greg Ganske discused their different views on a prescription drug benefit yesterday. Ganske supports adding a benefit to Medicare; Salier doesn't want to expand the program.

Illinois

The Chicago Sun-Times story on the president's fundraising/policy trip assesses the president's dive into local politics. "The president thanked the party faithful for their efforts supporting Ryan and state Rep. Jim Durkin, the GOP Senate nominee hoping to unseat Democratic Senator Dick Durbin. 'I want to thank you for what you've done in the past,' Bush said. 'I want to thank you for what you're fixing to do. I can just see the headlines: 'Ryan replaces Ryan, Durkin beats Durbin."'

"It was the only public reference Bush made to Gov. George Ryan, whose dismal poll numbers threaten to cloud the entire campaign. Not surprisingly, the governor was a no-show at the event."

"Former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Illinois Democrat, says she is considering a rematch with Republican Senator Peter G. Fitzgerald in 2004. 'I am being encouraged to stand for the Senate. I have not said, "No," Mrs. Moseley-Braun told the Pantagraph newspaper in Bloomington, Ill. 'I haven't closed the door on it.' Mrs. Moseley-Braun, after her loss to Mr. Fitzgerald in 1998, served as U.S. ambassador to Samoa."

Tennessee

Lamar Alexander had lunch with reporters yesterday and complained about the "negative personal attacks" being launched at him by Rep. Ed Bryant.

Massachusetts

The TV ad war has heated up in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in advance of the party's June 1 convention: state Senate President Tom Birmingham, generally viewed as the third-place contender, is now on the air.

Bill Bradley campaigns today for hopeful Robert Reich.

Minnesota

Democratic Rep. Bill Luther, who represented the state's 6th Congressional District for eight years, will run this fall for the newly redrawn 2nd district seat, avoiding a potentially nasty race with GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy. Luther will face, yet again, John Kline, the man he's beaten three times in six years.

Farm Law

Larry Lindsey goes on The Wall Street Journal op-ed page and bravely writes about the farm bill in a way that some might find parallel-universey: "Congress passed, and yesterday President Bush signed, the Farm Bill, which will provide a reliable safety net for farmers and meets important principles laid out by the president. The final bill adheres to congressional budget guidelines available at the time of conference, advances our international trade commitments, and protects the fundamental reforms in the 1996 Freedom to Farm legislation … "

"[T]he final bill preserves the president's fundamental principles of providing more stable and predictable funding, preserving our international commitments and avoiding a return to the outmoded farm policies of the past."

David Sanger should introduce some of his sources to Mr. Lindsay: "Many of (the president's) aides, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that signing the bill was painful for a president who came to office promoting a government commitment to free markets. But one senior official traveling with Mr. Bush here today said it would have been 'political suicide in the November election' to stand in the way of farm-state politicians who demanded huge increases in federal support after years of declining farm prices."

The Washington Post 's Allen says "The bill has infuriated crucial U.S. trading partners in Europe and Asia, and repudiates a Republican-championed 1996 law designed to wean farmers from government funds."

"A senior Republican official said Bush, after opposing the bill's costliest provisions last fall, capitulated because the most fertile ground for gaining the one Senate seat needed for a Republican takeover lies in the farm states of South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa and Georgia."

"The farm bill is the latest of several politically sensitive measures — notably tariffs on steel imports and new restrictions on the financing of federal campaigns — that Bush has approved this year despite taking contradictory positions during his presidential campaign. Some conservatives in Congress and elsewhere protested his endorsement of the farm bill as a betrayal of principle."

"Sources said Karl C. Rove, Bush's chief political adviser, told Republican senators at a private luncheon last week that the White House recognized the bill could undermine Bush's claims to fiscal responsibility. Rove joked that Bush might sign it 'by candlelight,' the sources said."

And Sanger's version of the same ditty: "Mr. Bush said nothing about the farm bill during his trip today to Chicago, which focused on welfare reform. His top political adviser, Karl Rove, told Republican senators recently that the president had favored a low-profile ceremony, to avoid drawing further attention to the bill, especially among conservatives who believed that it was too expensive and that it violated the party's free-trade principles."

At least he invited more people than he did for McCain-Feingold.

The Washington Post editorial page calls it "a low point" in Bush's presidency.

Legislative Agenda

Robert Pear looks at the (not so) fine print in the House Republicans welfare reform bill regarding block grants and food stamps.

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

The First Lady did the morning shows from a cluttered room in Paris. The AP's Sobieraj covers Day One.

And Matt Lauer did a stand-up interview on Today with US Ambassador to Morocco Margaret Tutwiler, who really is one of the smoothest and coolest customers the GOP has ever produced.

The Los Angeles Times previews Bono and Treasury Secretary O'Neill's excellent African adventure, a 10-day, four-country tour starting next week: "backstage, 42-year-old Bono and 66-year-old O'Neill may not be singing from the same page. Insiders said the two camps do not see eye to eye on the best way to bring about change in Africa, and those differences are likely to become more evident as the tour progresses. Although the overarching agenda is a noble one, the trip presents an opportunity for each side to exploit its association with the other."

The Boston Globe 's Shribman appears to report in his column that Bush almost called for more civics education in his State of the Union address, and "now has a team looking into the subject."

Lots of Texas pastors will join the president in Washington Thursday for the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast.

Mrs. Cheney's spokesperson Natalie Rule has, apparently, found her calling, going to war with Eminem, which involves no heavy lifting or outdoor work.

The Washington Post 's Milbank writes up the custody battle over President Bush's foreign policy now taking place between Brent Scowcroft and Richard Perle, a/k/a the "Prince of Darkness" (Novak doesn't seem to mind sharing the nickname).

"Typically, Washington chatter is about the internecine quarrels between the dovish Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and the hawkish Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. But these men are just pawns in the decades-old global chess match between Perle and Scowcroft, who first faced off in the 1970s."

"Scowcroft and Perle have relatively minor, advisery posts in the current Bush administration. Yet each man has profound influence over Bush policies and officials in the competition for the hearts of the president and his national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice."