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What does his status as a war-time president buy George W. Bush in terms of inside-the-Beltway political capital?
These days, the question answers itself: We aren't in September anymore, Toto.
Everywhere you look, you can spot defiance.
Most notably, House Majority Whip Tom DeLay and congressional Democrats want to move resolutions — generally opposed by the White House — in support of Israel, and we are in the midst of the administration being rolled on that.
But everywhere you look today, there are other signs of defiance: the dollar, trade promotion authority, the debt ceiling, federal spending, prescription drugs.
Sensing an opportunity, after a few minor delays, the Democratic National Committee plans to kick off its new message campaign today, "Broken Promises," complete with a video of clips of Bush speaking, mostly from the campaign but also from his presidency, talking about Social Security, Medicare, paying down the debt, leaving no child behind, and Pell Grants.
DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe will hold the press conference at 11:00 am at DNC headquarters.
The president has got to be thinking, "If I can't get my way when I'm at 75 percent approval, when CAN I get my way?" And maybe also thinking, " Why not quit this job and host a television show?"
Which segues us to the silly story we simply have to get out of the way, before we can go back to the serious stuff. The Los Angeles Times front-page story suggesting that Bill Clinton met with unnamed NBC executives to discuss the possibility of his hosting a television talk show is already getting a big run this cycle, because, well, it's a political/media bouillabaisse involving Clinton, the Los Angeles Times , and a television talk show.
Written in the gauzy style befitting such a Walter Mittyish venture, the first two graphs tell you what you need to know: "Former President Bill Clinton met with NBC executives Wednesday in Los Angeles to discuss hosting his own talk show, according to several television sources."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-050202clinton.story )
"Although the talks are only preliminary, one source said Clinton's interest was serious and said he was demanding a fee of $50 million a year and had aspirations 'of becoming the next Oprah Winfrey.'" (Who doesn't?)
The story also says: "Television industry sources say chances are slim that Clinton would commit to such a plan once he understands the demands of the job. The 55-year-old former president has told some Hollywood executives who have asked about a potential TV career that the rumors are untrue."
"Recently, CBS has been looking for a political star to bring to the small screen. The company has pursued former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who declined the offer, according to sources."
"If Clinton proceeds with his plans for a talk show, it probably would be produced by his close friends Linda Bloodworth-Thomason and Harry Thomason, sources said. The husband and wife team are playing a role in pitching Clinton's show to the networks."
While we report this out, our guess is that, from the totality of what we know, there was such a meeting, but he'll never actually do the show.
(And when we, as we are about to do, cite Neal Travis and other gossipists, it isn't necessarily to say we are sure they are right, but just so you know it is out there in the news maw. And by the way, Travis is often right. Or at least sometimes right. Anyway, he has his own item about a possible Clinton media career, and about a more likely possible Clinton news-making speech on the Middle East, which he says might happen this Monday in Gotham. ( http://www.nypost.com/gossip/travis.htm)
Let's leave that fantasy world and move to the reality of our current president's very much made-for-TV (by which we mean "PBS" or "The History Channel") problems.
The Wall Street Journal 's Jeanne Cummings goes full glass-half-empty on the president's political health, pegged to his declining (but still stratospheric) poll numbers, in the kind of story any White House hates:
"Mr. Bush's support for Israel is questioned from the left and the right. Having tarnished his free-trade credentials by imposing steel tariffs to protect U.S. workers in pivotal re-election states, the president is struggling to win authority for 'fast-track' approval of trade pacts. And the ballooning cost of the war against terrorism is undermining his vows to tamp down government spending."
"Now, with midterm elections fast approaching, GOP lawmakers' survival instincts increasingly are proving stronger than Mr. Bush's own popularity, leaving the endangered among them to release the president's shrinking coattails and go it alone on occasion. Early this week, Bush political adviser Karl Rove attempted to quell mutinous conservatives angry about White House support for moderate candidates in GOP primaries … "
"Republicans appear less inclined to abandon their own conservative-course settings to give Mr. Bush a win. Given the narrow split in Congress between the parties, a small fraying of GOP unity could have big repercussions for the administration's agenda."
And in another indication of why we keep telling you to watch how tough getting trade promotion authority passed is going to be: "California Republican Dana Rohrabacher, a longtime opponent of free trade, voted for the legislation in December because he didn't want the president to 'suffer a major setback' while trying to mobilize an international coalition to wage war on terrorism. 'That moment in history has passed on and the president has established himself as a world leader,' Rep. Rohrabacher says. 'We are no longer in a situation where we can't disagree with the president on a policy issue we think is important.'"
And in another indication of why we keep telling you to watch how tough enforcing budget discipline is going to be: "Next week, the White House request for a $27 billion emergency-spending bill is scheduled for votes in the House Appropriations Committee. Mr. Bush has threatened to veto the measure if Congress drives up its price tag. But lawmakers interpret his threat as half-hearted, and it was GOP leaders in the House who made the first bid for more money. Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas is considering tagging on a $200 million aid package for Israel, and House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois wants to add funding for election changes."
And hidden in his trademark farm bill story, The Wall Street Journal 's David Rogers suggests the White House is already caving on budget discipline:
"Meanwhile, on a second budget front, the White House signaled greater flexibility in setting spending limits for a supplemental appropriations bill to fund the war against terrorism."
"Mr. Bush has requested an estimated $27.1 billion in emergency funds, but lawmakers have argued they should be permitted to add more for the military and homeland security, as well as increased aid to Afghanistan."
"The president lunched with House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bill Young (R., Fla.), who later described Mr. Bush as 'very understanding.' And there seems to be a tacit agreement that to expedite matters, the White House would accept a total package near $30 billion." A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you are talking, Trent, about real money.
And with the unusual "no foreign policy can survive 535 secretaries of state caveat," the White House is reluctantly acknowledging the probable passage of a pro-Israel resolution by the House today.
( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020502/4077763s.htm )
Roll Call has its own version of the president's accommodation/cave on the Mideast. ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/05/news0502c.html )
And both parties are defying the president's budget by unveiling prescription drug plans that would cost more than the White House has budgeted.
Even Senator Zell Miller (D'ish-GA) is siding with his party on demanding a prescription drug benefit pass this year, and the New York Times ' Robert Pear betrays his usual implicit skepticism that Republicans actually want to pass anything into law, but, rather, just want to make enough legislative progress to inoculate themselves.
( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/politics/02DRUG.html )
In fact, if you look at the legislative details of the Rube Goldberg contraption Republicans want to build (even for a level of benefits that Democrats say is inadequate), you DO have to wonder how they could possibly argue that they are pitching a plan consistent with free market principles.
The Washington Post does a very good job laying out the game of cat and mouse on competing prescription drug benefit plans, although the story doesn't make clear if the Democrats are more cat or mouse.
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18492-2002May1.html )
The Wall Street Journal looks at how the issue might play in some House races, and says Democrats "believe that even if nothing passes, they will come out ahead politically because polls show they tend to be trusted more than the GOP on the issue."
We ask again: since the president ran on this as a high priority, when will he start expending the political capital necessary to get something signed into law? (And, we could ask the same question about patients bill of rights legislation.)
And the defiance goes on: even the president's bestest friends in the world, the Teamsters, are now part of a lawsuit with environmentalists and consumer groups (not his bestest friends) trying to block his policy on Mexican trucks. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/politics/02TRUC.html )
Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao will leave the United States a "virtual unknown" to the administration, writes USA Today 's Bill Nichols. "Privately, administration officials and members of Congress who met with Hu described him as cautious and said he echoed the official line from Beijing without revealing his own thinking." ( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020502/4077764s.htm )
There are big political stakes in this visit, but we will defer for another day, at least, in trying to figure them out, secure now in our belief that we will be able to stall long enough to never actually have to do that.
The Los Angeles Times points out that, in light of today's US-EU summit, the president must now explain steel tariffs to a constituency he cannot reliably bargain with.
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la -000031150may02.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )
If you haven't checked our political daybook lately, please do so — we update it every day, and we've added more than a half dozen events in the past 24 hours.
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From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: Palestinian leader Arafat has left his Ramallah compound in triumph after the Israeli army ended a prolonged siege of his headquarters. Large crowds of well-wishers greeted Arafat who, smiling broadly, left in a limousine to tour the city. His first stop after leaving his compound was the local hospital, where he said prayers at the nearby graves of a number of people who died during Israeli incursions. He is expected to visit other towns in the West Bank over the next few days. Palestinian officials are saying that Arafat will take a few days to deal with situation at home before traveling abroad.
Up to 1,000 coalition troops have begun a major new offensive, codenamed "Operation Snipe", in southeastern Afghanistan to sweep a mountainous area believed to have been a key base for al Qaeda fighters. British Royal Marines, backed by US troops, special forces and air power, are operating away from the Pakistani border in territory which has not been searched so far, according to Royal Marines spokesman Lt. Col. Paul Harradine. The task force is focusing on destroying al Qaeda caves and bunkers as well as killing or capturing any remnants of the al Qaeda and Taliban fighters
The Middle East
Anti-Iraq hawks in the administration will be waving around today's lead Wall Street Journal story all day: "Ever since its defeat in the Persian Gulf War, Iraq has been required to channel all its revenue from oil exports into a United Nations program that provides humanitarian aid and war reparations. In recent years, U.S. and U.N. officials have suspected — but could never prove — that Iraq has illegally siphoned off as much as $300 million of that revenue, and funneled much of it into Saddam Hussein's war chest."
"For the first time, evidence uncovered by The Wall Street Journal shows the siphoning scheme at work. Interviews and documents reveal how Iraq has imposed illegal surcharges on every barrel of oil it has sold, using a maze of intermediaries to cover its tracks."
The Anti-Defamation League sees fit to buy a big display ad in the Washington Post (A4) reprinting a recent Ralph Reed op-ed in support of Israel.
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary
If you want to stir up trouble between two politicians in the same political party, may we recommend getting the New York Times ' Rick Berke assigned to write a piece about them. As Joe Lockhart and Stuart Stevens would agree, this is the fastest way to create sort of the opposite effect of marriage counseling.
Today, simply by looking at the facts, Berke cleverly whips up the hornets' nest of hostility and tension that any close observer has seen growing between the Gore and Lieberman camps (if not necessarily between the men themselves, we write charitably). ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/politics/02RIVA.html )
In what will be THE buzz of the day (Berke's specialty) in many quarters of the invisible primary, R. Leland writes:
"[B]ehind the scenes, there is sniping between advisers to the two. Some Lieberman loyalists interpreted that remark by Mr. Gore as an effort to make clear that he thought Mr. Lieberman was indebted to him."
"Though Mr. Gore, Mr. Lieberman and their wives had breakfast together at the convention, Mr. Gore resisted entreaties from the Democratic state chairman, Bob Poe, to make a triumphal appearance on stage with Mr. Lieberman. Mr. Gore's camp cited a scheduling conflict, but more recently some Gore supporters expressed annoyance at a pitch by Mr. Lieberman to Silicon Valley and environmentalists, saying he was encroaching on Gore turf."
"Mr. Lieberman's advisers, in turn, have not been particularly complimentary of Mr. Gore. After Mr. Gore's well-received speech in Orlando, one top Lieberman adviser asked a reporter whether he thought it strange that the speech, unlike Mr. Lieberman's, had made no mention of the Middle East."
And Lieberman hints (at least) about his lack of interest (for now) in re-creating the 2000 ticket: "In any event, Mr. Lieberman is not interested for now in talking about the No. 2 spot."
"'That's one that I honestly have not given a moment's thought to,' he said, 'because I'm getting ready to make a decision myself about whether I should run for president.'"
Meanwhile, Lieberman has loaded up his travel schedule for late May.
The weekend of May 19-20, he'll hold a fundraiser in Milwaukee and give a speech on economic policy at the Detroit Economic Club, then head to Atlanta to star at a fundraiser for Senator Max Cleland.
Over the Memorial Day recess, Lieberman will travel first to Seattle for some family business and a regional Democratic party chairs' meeting, then on to San Francisco for fundraisers for Reps. Ellen Tauscher and Cal Dooley and the Democratic Senate campaign committee that Tuesday the 28th, on to Los Angeles on Wednesday, May 29 for a fundraiser for Cruz Bustamente, and to Arizona on Thursday for a fundraiser for the state party.
An astute Note and New York Times reader alerted us to this Letter To The Editor, from none other than R. K. "Pachy" Pachauri, whom Al Gore bashed over the head in his environmental speech last Monday:
"'Mr. Gore's derogatory statements about me reflect deep disappointment at my election as chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with 76 votes for me against 49 for his protégé, Dr. Robert T. Watson.' " ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/01/opinion/L01GORE.html )
"In a 1991 speech, Mr. Gore, referring to my 'commitment,' 'vision' and 'dedication,' said: 'Pachy is the one person in the world who could bring us all here. . . . He is known all over the community of concerned men and women as someone with the intellect and the heart.' In "Earth in the Balance,' Mr. Gore acknowledged me 'among the other scientists who have been helpful in giving me advice during the writing of this book.' Would the real Al Gore stand up? Does what he says today hold no value tomorrow?"
A response, in full, from a Gore spokesman: "Gore also thanked Carl Sagan in his book — that doesn't mean he wanted him to head up NASA. In the eleven years since Earth in the Balance, Pachauri has called for a world-wide boycott of American goods and even helped run an oil corporation. Gore and leading environmentalists share the same view of Pachauri — he would undermine the UN's efforts to highlight the threat of global warming."
Gore is fundraising for Gov. Gray Davis in Los Angeles today. Contrary to impressions left in a New York Post gossip item yesterday, we're reliably told that the former Vice President's PAC fundraiser yesterday was $5000 a head — not $250..
News that Senator John Edwards was looking at the New Hampshire state Democratic voter list surprised some New Hampshire party officials. Turns out the $30,000 figure quoted in the Charlotte Observer … was … well … as "yesterday" as day-old hog manure.
No reason that New Hampshire Democrats should be worth less than Iowa Democrats, who sold their list for a cool $65,000. Our prediction: if New Hampshire Democrats decide to sell their voter list to presidential potentials, the price will be dern near $65,000. Or maybe $65,0001. And that comes from the top!
Party chair Kathy Sullivan tells us that no decision has been made whether to sell their list to presidential aspirants — or on what conditions might be attached if they do.
Bob Novak says that Democratic carping over the failed Venezuelan coup is really a way to stick Otto Reich's recess appointment back in the faces of Bushies. He says that Senator Chris Dodd "may be less interested in protecting democracy in Venezuela than in settling old scores with Reich. That seems out of character for the easygoing, politically ambitious Connecticut senator. But Dodd's longtime adviser on Latin American affairs, Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer Janice O'Connell, has not forgiven Reich for his aggressive support for Nicaraguan Contras. She also sees the Cuban-born Reich as an obstacle to warm relations with Castro's Cuba."
( http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak02.html )
The Rev. Al Sharpton tells the AP he is a "lot closer" to running for president.
( http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/47016.htm )
It's perhaps the most powerful conservative organization in America you've never heard of. It's secretive, but not as sinister as many liberals seem to believe.
Not that we aren't enjoying covering the 2004 presidential race (quite obviously), but it's never too early to think 2008.
Make three not-so-far-fetched assumptions: 1) President Bush runs for and wins re-election; 2) Dick Cheney runs with him, and serves out his full term; and 3) Cheney disavows any interest in running for president himself in 2008.
That would leave a race for the GOP presidential nomination a mere six years from now (but starting, of course, much sooner) that would be wide open. And believe us, a lot of Republicans who ache to be president have thought about what the dynamics of that would be.
It's been a long time, if ever, that we have had a term-limited team in the White House with the Veep having ruled himself out, leaving unchartered waters about all sorts of things, especially who the White House would support, if anyone.
So whenever a possible Republican nominee speaks out on point, we pay attention. Here's what Senator Bill Frist says about being president in this coming Sunday's New York Times Magazine:
"My true goal is to be the very best senator I can possibly be over the next five years. It is not a goal of mine to serve in the executive branch. It's not a hidden dream, as it is with many people. But I don't plan on staying as a United States senator for my entire life either — whether it's medical mission work, going back and teaching or something else in government, I don't know."
Shermanesque? Hardly. And displaying some of that Bush 1998 cork-on-a-river reluctance that many Americans apparently found captivating.
Roll Call looks at how Senators Lott and Nickles are fundraising like crazy for Senators and would-be Senators, perhaps motivated by a possible leadership face-off.
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/05/news0502a.html )
Deborah Orin goes a bit over the top in writing about how Jewish support could lead to George Bush carrying New York in 2004, but there IS something to this. "[A] growing number of Republican strategists believe Bush has a realistic chance of winning New York in 2004, using Gov. Pataki's campaign as a building block and model."
( http://www.nypost.com/commentary/46985.htm )
"'I am increasingly worried,' says [a] Dem strategist. 'There is some concern on the part of some elites as to whether Democrats are as strongly there for Israel as Bush and the right-wing Republicans.'"
"'There's starting to be a lot of talk about Jewish voters liking Bush, and it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.'"
Rush and Molloy seems to own the Hillary Clinton press shop, which is fine, we suppose. Today they report, "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will be losing one of her key staff members, we hear. Jim Kennedy, who serves as her communications director and senior policy adviser, is due to move from Washington to New York this summer." ( http://www.nydailynews.com/today/News_and_Views/Daily_Dish /a-149531.asp )
"Karen Dunn, press secretary to the senator, will move up to Kennedy's job, sources say. No word on Dunn's replacement or where Kennedy will be working, but betting is that he'll become Bill Clinton's mouthpiece," which isn't the craziest thought in the world, we hear, since the Manhattan-bound (or will it be Brooklyn?) Kennedy is said to be considering the Clinton-to-Clinton move along with some other options.
You'll like the photo in the web version, we think.
Political reporters tend to be know-it-alls, who think they could run political campaigns better than the people we cover do. Which is, of course, silly.
But here are some things we suggest are good things to keep in mind during a campaign:
1) Don't let Evan Mecham and/or Charles Keating come to your fundraisers ( http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0502MECHAM02.html )
2) Don't be "Minnesota nice" on the eve of the party endorsement ( http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/news/politics/3178328.htm )
3) Don't flip flop on gaming, particularly in your first run for office ( http://www.dallasnews.com/politics/statenews/stories/050202dntexgov.205de.html )
4) Don't defend a convicted New York auction executive if you are running in the South, particularly in your first run for office ( http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/3178959.htm )
5) Don't spit into the wind (that's really more about Jim Croce than politics)
Indiana
The Club For Growth is siding with the White House for a change. They're on the air in Fort Wayne, IN with TV spots attacking Republican Paul Helmke's "liberal record." Rep. Mark Souder, Helmke's opponent in the GOP primary, has been endorsed by the White House, and is touting that endorsement in an ad campaign of his own.
New Hampshire
John DiStaso reports that Bill Clinton will join Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in New York on Monday for a fundraiser. "Republicans believe they can have a field day with this. You can guess what sort of hits are on the way, given Clinton's personal indiscretions. Shaheen apparently hasn't let those stop her from standing with him."
( http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=10824 )
Could this mean the return of Tom Rath to national committee status? DiStaso also reports today that Republican National Committeeman Mike Dennehy, who has been informally advising Craig Benson on his run for governor, will resign from the RNC today. (Members of the committee can't advise primary candidates, according to RNC bylaws.)
State Senator Beverly Hollingworth (D) officially announced her candidacy for governor of New Hampshire yesterday. ( http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=10828 )
State Senator Mark Fernald will announce his gubernatorial candidacy next Tuesday. (And the Tuesday after that, Bill Bradley will campaign for him.)
Iowa
David Yepsen answers the "two big questions of Iowa politics" in the affirmative. "1) Will there be another special session of the Legislature? and 2) Will Gov. Tom Vilsack sign a bill cutting the insurance-premium tax in half? The odds favor both." ( http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c5917686/18063882.html )
Massachusetts
A nice front-page Boston Globe hit for the candidate most Republicans believe would give Mitt Romney the toughest race: "A month before Democrats convene to endorse a candidate for governor, the campaign of state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien is gaining strength and momentum in the polls, the hunt for delegates, and campaign donations."
( http://www.globe.com/dailyglobe2/122/metro/Romney_s_entry_boosts_O_Brien+.shtml )
Move over, John Edwards. Mitt Romney is on this year's "50 Most Beautiful People" list.
Texas
The two candidates for the hyper-powerful post of Texas lieutenant governor are sparring over how much money one of them got from trial lawyers — 12 percent or six percent of his intake?
( http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/politics/1393549 )
Minnesota
Gov. Jesse Ventura must disclose the private, outside sources of income he acquires, just as soon as a "veto-proof" bill passed by the state legislature becomes law.
( http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/2618848.html )
New York
Gov. George Pataki (R) is up to something on redistricting, trying to shoot the moon and eliminate two Democratic seats. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/nyregion/02DIST.html )
First, Andrew Cuomo had to deal with the CW that the "coat holder" remark would hurt him. Now he has to deal with the new, related CW (based on one Quinnipiac poll) that the remark IS hurting him, and the New York Post can hardly contain its glee. Actually, they don't really try to contain it.
( http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/47072.htm )
Bush Administration Strategy/Personality
Making us nostalgic for the first year of the Bush Administration, Treasury Secretary O'Neill is once again standing on principle, and simultaneously being annoyed by and annoying to both Congress and a key market: "After saying his goal was to avoid upsetting the financial markets, Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill did just that today by sparring with members of a Congressional committee about the nation's financial condition and leaving some investors with doubts about his willingness to defend the weakening dollar." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/business/02DOLL.html )
There were so many good colloquy moments between O'Neill and the Senate panel before which he appeared, particularly with Senator Sarbanes, who lives for this kind of stuff. In a parallel universe, today's Note is simply excerpts of the best stuff, with everything else shunted aside (see how much we miss the old days of "O'Neill in the Spotlight?").
But we can't do that, so here's just our favorite part: "As you know, Senator, I'm not reluctant to be alone," O'Neill told Sarbanes.
And O'Neill and the president have got a related problem, coming down the pike sooner than had been expected: "Faced with lower than expected tax revenues, the Treasury Department said today that the federal government would hit its legal borrowing limit in about two weeks, putting pressure on Congress to agree to increase the debt ceiling to avert a potential financial crisis." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/politics/02DEBT.html )
"The department had previously said it expected to have enough cash on hand to carry the government into late June without bumping against the limit on borrowing. But after tallying most of April's tax receipts, it said today that it would face a cash crunch by the middle of this month and that resorting to financial gimmicks would extend the deadline only by a matter of weeks."
The Washington Post displays its gift for the obvious-but-worth-repeating: "Many Democrats would like to force a politically embarrassing vote before the November midterm elections to focus attention on the federal deficits occurring on President Bush's watch."
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html )
Carla Marinucci gets Latino and African American leaders to roundly praise President Bush for his recent trip to South Central Los Angeles and his remarks during a private meeting.
( http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/05/02/MN7138.dtl )
Bill Safire urges the president to return to his pro-privacy roots.
( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/02/opinion/02SAFI.html )
According to a copy of the invite to the Republican House campaign committee fundraiser being held at New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg's house on May 16 and headlined by Vice President Cheney, "National Event Hosts" can pony up $100,000 for four tickets to both a roundtable discussion and a luncheon (and hey, a photo op), "National Event Co-hosts" can pay $50,000 for two tickets to all events, "New York Vice-chairmen" pay $25,000 for one ticket to everything, and "New York Co-chairmen" only need to pay $15,000 for one ticket to the lunch.
Legislative Agenda
A man who knows a thing or two about hardball plays a bit in the Washington Post catch-up story on how a health care side war is emperiling trade promotion authority in the Senate: "Thomas J. Donohue, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said his group might withdraw its support for the bill if Democrats attach too many provisions. 'If it's loaded up and it looks like the horse and wagon are going to die, we're going to kill it,' Donohue said Monday. 'And the people who loaded up the wagon are going to pay the political price for it.'"
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18302-2002May1.html )
And The Wall Street Journal suggest this is exactly where we are headed, courtesy of Senate Majority Leader Daschle, who really is making George Mitchell look like a piker in playing the Game of Four P's (politics, partisanship, power, policy): "Complicating action on issue, the South Dakota Democrat's bill also would provide one-year health coverage for retired steelworkers who lost benefits as a result of their companies' recent bankruptcies."
"The unrelated steel provision was added to the trade bill late Wednesday, after Mr. Daschle gave up trying to get the White House and Republicans to sign off on a compromise trade-related health-care provision."
Three different elite constituencies have had a hand in creating the dynamics of welfare reform politics; Democrats (and their allied interest groups), Republicans (and their allies), and governors (who need to put the wisdom of the former two into actual practice).
With the House debating an update of welfare reform, the National Governors Association has stepped into high gear, lobbying for fewer restrictions on the money that goes to the states. The NGA is also trying to broker a compromise among Republican governors; several support the thrust of what congressional Republicans are proposing (encapsulated in programs that toughen work requirements, for example) while others support Democratic proposals for more child care funds. Governors all agree that they ought not be held to super-tight standards imposed by federal fiat.
The Washington Times reports on what Congress is doing now.
( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020502-828359.htm )
The prospect is good for a compromise that's minimally acceptable to everyone but the tail end of the bell curves.
Enron
Roll Call reports, "Word around the Hill is that Wendy Gramm, a former member of Enron's board of directors, is going to get a free pass when Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) holds a high- profile hearing next week. There had been tension among Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee over the fact that Gramm, wife of retiring Senator Phil Gramm (R-Texas), had been subpoenaed along with other current and former members of the board for possible testimony. But Democratic sources confirmed to [ Roll Call ] yesterday that Gramm will not be called to testify at the actual hearing, though she was interviewed by Levin's investigators privately. Apparently only nonspouses of Senators will face the public grilling." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/columns/hoh/ )
Media
To paraphrase Jane Austen, every reporter feels happy about being mentioned in William Safire's Sunday "On Language" column in the New York Times Magazine in his or her own way. This coming Sunday, look for classy mentions of both the AP's Ron Fournier, and the Washington Post 's Dana Milbank, who is dominating this week's Note for reasons we can't explain.
-- 9:30 am, House aviation subcommittee considers proposal to arm pilots
-- 9:45 am, White House off-camera morning gaggle
-- 10:00 am, House meets to consider Israel solidarity resolution
-- 10:00 am, Senate meets to consider trade policy
-- 10:00 am, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle briefs
-- 10:30 am, House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt briefs
-- 10:00 am, HHS Secretary Thompson and Transportation Secretary Mineta testify before Senate Appropriations Committee
-- 10:35 am, President Bush meets with US and EU leaders, Oval Office
-- 11:00 am, Democratic National Committee launches "Broken Promises" campaign
-- 12:30 pm, White House on-camera briefing
-- 1:20 pm, President Bush holds multilateral press availability with EU leaders
-- 2:30 pm, Attorney General Aschroft testifies before Senate Appropriations Committee
-- 3:00 pm, Secretary of State Powell meets with UN and EU officials, State Department
-- 6:45 pm, Vice President Cheney attends fundraiser for GOP House candidate Chris Chocola, South Bend, IN
-- May 3: Sen. John Kerry keynotes South Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Columbia, SC
-- May 3: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Massachusetts Gay and Lesbian Bar Association Dinner, Cambridge, MA
-- May 4: Sen. John Edwards addresses South Carolina Democratic convention, Columbia, SC, and addresses Michigan Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner
and headlines fundraiser for House candidate Carl Marlinga -- May 3-4: Jose Maria Aznar, President of Spain, visits Washington.
-- May 3-5: Former Vice President Gore and Tipper Gore appear at BookExpo America to tout their forthcoming book, Jacob Javits Center, New York
-- May 4: New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial candidates forum, St. Paul's School, Concord, NH
-- May 4: Kentucky Derby, with politicians galore in attendance
-- May 4: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Empire State Pride Agenda annual dinner, New York
-- May 4: White House Correspondents' Dinner, headlined by comedian Drew Carey.
-- May 4: American Trial Lawyers' Association Board of Governors Meeting, Annapolis, MD.
-- May 5: AFL-CIO meeting, New York
-- May 5: Sen. John Edwards addresses Michigan Democrats, MI
-- May 6: first New Hampshire gubernatorial debate, both parties, Mount Washington Hotel
-- May 6: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean speaks at fundraiser for Iowa House Democratic Caucus, Iowa City, Iowa.
-- May 6-7: House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt travels to New Hampshire
-- May 7: President Bush meets with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepal, DC
-- May 7: New Hampshire State Senator Mark Fernald announces gubernatorial run
-- May 7: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets
-- Mau 8: Former president George H.W. Bush speaks at business conference, Tianjin, China
-- May 8: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen opens campaign headquarters, Manchester, NH
-- May 9: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean speaks at DNC Gay and Lesbian Leadership Council Chairman's Dinner
-- May 10: Bill Clinton appears at Natural Resources Defense Council fundraiser with Steve Martin and more, Los Angeles
-- May 10: Mary Matalin headlines Iowa GOP fundraising dinner
-- May 10: Rep. Barney Frank headlines
-- May 10-11: Democratic party state chairs meeting, Asheville, NC
-- May 11: New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial candidates forum, St. Paul's School, Concord, NH
-- May 11: New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen delivers commencement address, University of Mississippi.
-- May 11: New Hampshire Democratic State Party chairs meeting, Concord,
-- May 11: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Wyoming Democratic party convention, Rock Springs, WY
-- May 13:Vermont Gov. Howard Dean raises money for Rep. Jim Maloney, Southbury, CT
-- May 13: North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stumps at Galivants Ferry Stump Meeting, SC.
-- May 14: Bill Bradley campaigns for NH gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald, Londonderry, NH
-- May 14: Newark mayoral election
-- May 15: Financial disclosure forms due for White House, House and Senate staffers.
-- May 15: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Taste of the States" fundraiser, DC
-- May 16: Vice President Dick Cheney headlines GOP fundraiser, NYC
-- May 16: former President and Nancy Reagan to receive the Congressional Gold Medal (Mrs.Reagan to accept), DC
-- May 17: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean speaks to Gill Foundation Outgiving Conference, San Francisco
-- May 17: President Bush meets with Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek of Slovenia
-- May 18: Sen. Patty Murray (D) keynotes Arkansas Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Little Rock
-- May 19: Al and Tipper Gore's 32nd wedding anniversary -- May 19: Sen. Joseph Lieberman holds PAC fundraiser, Milwaukee
-- May 20: Florida Democrats Jefferson-Jackson dinner, speaker TBD
-- May 20: Sen. Joseph Lieberman speaks to Detroit Economic Club
-- May 21: Pennsylvania primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- May 22-23: New York Democratic party convention, Sheraton New York, NYC
-- May 22-23: President and Mrs. Bush visit Berlin
--May 22: AFL-CIO members expected to ratify increased dues levy for political purposes, New York, NY
-- May 22: Democratic National Convention site selection committee meets to decide on possible sites and a site visit schedule, DC
-- May 23-25: President and Mrs. Bush visit Moscow
-- May 24: signature deadline for some California ballot initiatives
-- May 25: signature deadline for Oregon ballot initiatives
-- May 27--30: U.S. Senate/U.S. House not in session
-- May 27: Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd's birthday
-- May 28: South Dakota pre-primary financial disclosure forms due
-- May 28: President Bush attends NATO Summit, Italy
-- May 28-29: New York GOP Convention (Gov. George Pataki's formal renomination)
-- May 31: Tipper Gore fundraises for New Hampshire Democratic Party, Concord
-- June 1: New Hampshire Democratic Party State Convention, St. Anslem's college.
-- June 1: Massachusetts Democratic Party State Convention
-- July 1-5: U.S. Senate/U.S. House not in session
-- June 4: Iowa Primary
-- June 4: South Dakota Primary
-- June 7: President Rudolf Schuster of the Slovak Republic visits Washington
-- June 7: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean gives commencement speech at University of Michigan medical school
-- June 7: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Michigan House Democratic Caucus reception
-- June 7-8: Wisconsin State Democratic Party convention
-- June 8: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean gives commencement speech at Dartmouth medical school, NH
-- June 8: Sen. Patty Murray keynotes Tennessee Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Nashville
-- June 10: North Carolina Senator John Edwards' birthday.
-- June 11: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Clinton County, NY Salute to Labor Committee celebration.
-- June 14: North Carolina Senator John Edwards speaks to Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame, Polk County, IA
-- June 15-16: Iowa Democratic Party state convention
-- June 13-15: Texas Democratic party convention, El Paso
-- June 21: N.C. Sen. John Edwards celebrates Flag Day in New Hampshire
-- June 22: N.C. Sen. John Edwards attends Merrimack County Annual Pig Roast
-- June 27: Rep. Jim Traficant's sentencing scheduled to take place
-- June 23-25: Election Law Summit, Washington, D.C.
-- June 27-30: Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Charlotte
-- July 4: WMUR Statehouse reporter Scott Spradling to wed.
-- July 5: last day for Washington state ballot measures to be presented
-- July 6: President Bush's birthday.
-- July 9-12: Northwest Regional Election Conference, Portland, Oregon
-- July 13: Sen. Joe Lieberman keynotes Louisiana Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner
-- July 15: New York periodic disclosure forms due
-- July 20-24: American Trial Lawyers Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta
-- July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
-- Aug. 6: Michigan primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- Aug. 7: last day for Ohio ballot measures to be presented
-- Aug. 8-11: Democratic National Committee meets, Las Vegas
-- Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday.
-- Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday.
-- Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday.
-- Aug. 20: Georgia primaries
-- Aug 26: Jury selection begins in John Walker Lindh trial
-- Sept. 10: Florida, New Hampshire, and New York primaries (Florida: Democratic primary for governor; New Hampshire: Republican primary for Senate and primaries on both sides for governor; New York: Democratic primary for governor)
-- Sept. 17: Massachusetts primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- Sept. 30: Jury selection begins for trial of Zacarias Moussaoui
-- Sept. 30: Discovery ends in McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
-- Oct. 4: Al Sharpton's birthday.
-- Oct. 15 (tentative): Zacarias Moussaoui trial begins
-- October 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
-- Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
-- Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
-- Nov. 5: Election Day
-- Nov. 17: Vermont Governor Howard Dean's birthday.
-- Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
-- Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
-- Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
-- Dec. 9: South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle's birthday
-- Dec. 11: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's birthday
-- Dec. 13: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's birthday
-- Dec. 26: California Governor. Gray Davis's birthday
-- Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
-- Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday
-- Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's birthday
-- March 11, 2003: Georgia Governor Roy Barnes's birthday
-- March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
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