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Note Archives, updated weekly.

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Another reason why we are doing a mini-Note today: We are writing on the ABCNEWS blackboard 1,000 times each the rules of political journalism that we hope to follow assiduously for the rest of the campaign.

They work well for network and local news, print and broadcast, and wouldn't it be grand if we all adhered to them from now until election day?

1. Don't let polls — particularly suspect ones, but even perfectly good ones — become the way to frame every bit of coverage each day. (And yes, this especially includes Zogby polls.)

2. Don't cover debates as if you were a theater critic or a sports writer — debates shouldn't be just about gaffes and fights.

3. Don't play up "video press releases" — campaign and interest group TV ads that are produced and then barely aired, but given to the press as "real" ads so they will get earned media — on the air EVER. Or, if you must, when you air them or write about them, make it clear that they aren't "real" ads.

4. Don't confuse the various accurate definitions in dealing with sources and reporting (or not reporting) what they say:
a) "on the record:" "Ed Gillespie says … "
b) "on background:" "A leading Republican strategist says, [insert exact quote here]."
c) "deep background:" "Republicans are saying [paraphrase of what Republicans are saying]."
d) "deepest background:" simply enters the reporter's brain, where it mixes with all other reporting, with no direct or specific reference.
e) "off the record:" not to be reported or repeated, unless permission is given to do the latter in order to confirm something elsewhere.

5. Don't mistake the "natural tightening" that occurs in the polls at the end of most races in competitive states for a true surge by the trailing candidate.

6. Don't leave insufficient reportorial resources available for truth-squadding ads, phone calls, etc., right up through election day.

7. Don't treat ad watch boxes as afterthoughts; don't fail to scrutinize every ad; and don't write them up as tactics and theater criticism, but as truth-squadding to help voters sort out the messages.

8. Don't treat Democrat-aligned special interest groups, such as unions and pro-choice groups, and the money they spend to influence the election any differently than you treat Republican-aligned groups, such as business and the NRA.

9. Remember that Democrats' cries of "voter intimidation" could lead to GOP concerns about "vote stealing," and vice versa.

10. Don't forget about provisional ballots, early voting, and absentee voting.

In fact, the New York Times ' Nagourney has a nice story on early voting today, and how it "has forced candidates and their advisers to rethink every facet of how they run for office, from what to say to when to say it, from how to run a get-out-the-vote operation to when to broadcast their first television advertisements." LINK

And the Des Moines Register doesn't let Nagourney claim the story, covering the "unprecedented battle for absentee votes." LINK

11. (You thought we'd forget?) Don't forget what distinguishes a push poll from real polling calls and from advocacy phone-banking: push polls are calls that pretend to be for the purpose of a survey but are, in fact, calls designed to "push" the respondent toward the candidate who is paying for the calls, or away from the opposition.

Matthew Dowd, the pollster for President Bush and the Republican National Committee, plans to distribute an election overview memo to Republicans around the country sometime early this week. Addressed to the RNC leadership, it clearly was offered up in advance to put out the party's spin on where things stand, but there are some things in here with which some Democrats would reluctantly agree.

"The public's desire, in spite of the Democrat's best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy," Dowd says. "They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue. This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election."

Beyond the polling numbers themselves, most striking is this Republican admission, which is somewhat at odds with the happy talk on the economy we usually hear from Administration spokespeople: "It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns."

But this truly reflects what even our most truth serum-filled GOP sources are telling us about the party's mindset.

Honest Democrats would agree with some of this, but say they still have hope to change things in the three weeks remaining before election day.

Remember: this bullish view (and reality) doesn't mean that the GOP will win lots of seats on election day — just that they probably won't get the normal midterm shellacking that the president's party usually faces.

That said, it wouldn't take a shellacking, just a single-digit gain, for Democrats to win back control of the House.

Along these lines, here are your key clips for the day:

USA Today 's Welch went looking for ad and substantive exchanges over the war and national and homeland security, and came up with not much more than the already identified Senate races (the issue really hasn't popped in any House races yet), proving that it hasn't yet achieved "nationalized" status. LINK

Roll Call 's Kane writes, "Majority Leader Thomas Daschle (D-S.D.) is not making plans for a final major push to take up economic issues, such as pension reform, before adjourning for the elections … [T]he plan for focusing on the economy appears to rely on press events, on Capitol Hill and back in the competitive states, hitting on specific issues of local relevance." LINK

The Washington Times ' Lambro sounds the countering note, focusing on "widespread grumbling for months among the Democrats' rank and file that its leadership has done little to enthuse and excite the party's base to turn out in large numbers in next month's elections." LINK

The Wall Street Journal reports that House Ways and Means chairman Thomas plans to bring to the floor on Wednesday a proposal to extend unemployment benefits in 13 of the hardest hit states; Daschle's spokesperson suggests Democrats will oppose the measure on the grounds that it's too narrow.

Stuart Rothenberg is "simply not prepared to say that it's so late in the election cycle that the economy and the poor performance of stocks can't combine to deliver a blow to the Republicans on Nov. 5." That said, he notes, "The economy simply hasn't grabbed the public's attention, and voters aren't blaming President Bush … " LINK

Pocketbook issues may be a relatively recent concern for many members of Congress who up until last week were more focused on the war, but they're old hat for governors and gubernatorial candidates on the ballot. LINK

Ron Brownstein laments today that candidates on the stump and candidates articulating substantive messages are becoming an endangered species: "Most campaigns this year seem to be operating at two speeds: vicious and vacuous." LINK

Beating a similar drum, Pew's Andrew Kohut says in a New York Times op-ed, "Rarely has the mood of American voters been as inscrutable as in the current election cycle." LINK

We're fine-tuning our race ratings as election day looms, with some changes to our Senate and governor rankings to tell you about.

Among our Senate race ratings, for now, we're moving Texas from Toss-up to Incumbent Party Favored.

In doing so, we're not suggesting that Democrat Ron Kirk cannot win Phil Gramm's open seat — only that Kirk has always had to run a better campaign than GOP nominee John Cornyn to win, with less room for error.

And, in fact, Kirk has made some mistakes.

Also, to win, he needs historically high turnout among African-Americans and Hispanics, and that remains a question mark.

We will be watching closely in the next week or so, as Kirk and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee make their first substantial media buys here, and perhaps run their first negative ads against Cornyn.

This is still Republican-leaning Texas, and Cornyn is well-funded. But this race does have the potential to move back to Toss-up before election day. We'll see.

We are leaving two other Toss-up Senate races in place for now, but watching them closely.

In Arkansas, incumbent Republican Tim Hutchinson has for months been the GOP's most endangered incumbent, and at this point, if we were the types to use the hackneyed phrase "fighting for his political life," we would tell you that Hutchinson is fighting for his political life.

Indeed, Hutchinson is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent of either party. Democrats claim, and some Republicans agree, that this race should be moved to Incumbent Party Likely Loss, but for now, we are leaving it in Toss-up.

New Jersey is the other Senate race we are watching closely to see whether the TV ad campaign, which has been virtually in suspended animation since Frank Lautenberg replaced Robert Torricelli on the Democratic line, changes the dynamic.

It is possible that this race will move to Incumbent Party Favored at some point, but for now it stays where it is.

Our other Toss-ups — Democratic-held seats in Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota, and Republican-held seats in Colorado and New Hampshire — are not only staying where they are, but they are highly unlikely to EVER move before election day.

Republicans are still hoping to make Georgia a Toss-up, while Democrats are still battling hard in North and South Carolina.

However, the incumbent parties claim not to be concerned about their hold on these Southern states.

Two Senate incumbents move from Incumbent Party Favored to Incumbent Party Safe. Barring the entry of some big-name write-in candidate, and a huge funding effort and backlash against the Democrats' now-famous ad, we are calling the Montana Senate race safe for Democrat Max Baucus.

And in Maine, barring some major development that fundamentally changes things, Republican Senator Susan Collins is also Safe.

Among the governors races, just one change to tell you about now: we are moving Alaska from Incumbent Party Loss to Incumbent Party Likely Loss — given Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer (D) somewhat improved, though still long odds of beating Senator Frank Murkowski (R) for the open seat.

Governors races we'll keep watching: Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott McCallum (R) seems to still be in danger of losing his seat, could move from Toss-up to Incumbent Party Likely Loss; Hawaii, Florida, and Maryland could all move to Toss-up; and Iowa might move from Toss-up to Incumbent Party Favored, to reflect Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack's improving status.

And in Florida, some recent public and private polling suggests that Democrat Bill McBride has turned the race into a Toss-up, but Gov. Jeb Bush's significant fundraising advantage, and the absence of dynamic-changing negative ads, is causing us to just keep watching this one for now.

For the full, updated ratings, look here: The Senate

The Governors

The House

Today, President Bush heads to Michigan to raise money for Republican candidates, with no policy events scheduled.

Vice President Gore is in Iowa today, with the usual level of meticulous campaign scheduling. Gore will stump and raise money for Democratic House candidates later today, with more of the same tomorrow.

Meanwhile, his former running mate, Joe Lieberman, is in New Hampshire. Senator John Kerry is in Arizona. And Vermont Gov. Howard Dean actually is in Vermont.

On Tuesday, Bush will address the White House Conference on Increasing Minority Homeownership at George Washington University.

Wednesday, Bush will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Sharon at the White House. Out in California, Howard Dean may pick up the endorsement of independent Senator Jim Jeffords, if the Senate schedule permits.

Thursday, President Bush will head to Atlanta to appear at a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Sonny Perdue and Senate candidate Saxby Chambliss, then on to Florida for remarks on education at an elementary school in New Smyrna Beach.

Friday, Bush will address a rally in Springfield, MO, then head to a rally in Rochester, MN.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

As Noted above, Gore is in Iowa today and tomorrow, tailed by the local press and a posse of national reporters whose efforts likely will appear in some of your finer papers over the next few days.

Today, Gore will headline events for House candidates Ann Hutchinson in Dubuque and Julie Thomas in Mount Vernon and Iowa City, then will visit the Iowa coordinated campaign headquarters in Des Moines.

Tomorrow, Gore will attend a labor breakfast and an education forum with Rep. Leonard Boswell in Des Moines before heading to a get-out-the-vote rally for House candidate John Norris in Ames. Later in the day, he'll leave for Milwaukee.

The AP's Lester on Friday afternoon looked at the dilemma Dick Gephardt aspires to face, should Democrats win back the House: "whether to plunge into [the Speaker's] job or mount an all-out second run for the presidency in 2004."

"Gephardt, sandy-haired and youthful-looking at 61, has visited 61 cities in 83 trips for House members and candidates so far this year ? 217 events, both fund-raisers and rallies … Many Gephardt associates say they expect him to run for president. Among the half dozen or so Democrats preparing for possible 2004 campaigns, he and former Vice President Al Gore have national networks of Democratic supporters and fund-raisers."

His support for the president "on Iraq, projecting a moderate image, could strengthen fellow Democrats' efforts in many states next month. However, it's also a stance that wouldn't necessarily help in a bid for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination because some early primaries are in states where party voters might not reward hawkish views."

"While Gephardt has built strong alliances with many traditionally Democratic groups over the years, he has been reaching out to centrist Democrats this year, talking of bridging a gap between labor and business."

Gephardt and Tipper Gore get Style section mentions for their turns at the Human Rights Campaign annual gala in DC last night; Gephardt addressed the dinner. LINK

Senator John Edwards slipped a statement into the record Friday night, per one source who didn't want it to go unnoticed. In the statement, Edwards outlined some specific proposals to boost the economy, and repeated his call to freeze the tax cut for the top rates. LINK

We wonder whether this statement is meant to be a test run of ideas for Edwards' economic policy speech, still date TBD, just as his floor statement on Iraq preceded his foreign policy speech last week.

Some of the proposals: "a one-time refundable energy tax cut of $500 per family," and raising the bonus for businesses to invest "in new equipment from 30 percent to 45 percent — a 50 percent increase --" but through June 30, 2002 only.

Edwards' wife Elizabeth rarely does much public speaking. That changed Saturday morning when she gave her first major speech, addressing several hundred women at a Democratic women's breakfast in Asheville, NC. LINK

The Note didn't see Bob Novak in the room during last weekend's J-J dinner in Iowa, but somehow he got his own unique take on what happened: "Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a long shot for the Democratic Presidential nomination, was the unexpected star at last weekend's annual Iowa Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des Moines." LINK

"Some Iowa Democrats attending didn't quite know who Dean was, with one referring to him as 'that New Hampshire governor guy.' Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa in his speech repeatedly called him 'John Dean.' Nevertheless, the Iowans clearly liked what they heard from Dean, who at one point described Iowa as 'Vermont, ironed out.'"

"A footnote: The bust of the Des Moines cattle call for Presidential hopefuls was Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. Although some women said they liked the good-looking Edwards, the consensus was that he had 'said nothing.'"

Following his extensive visit around the state recently, New Hampshire Democrats are trying to figure out if Gen. Wesley Clark is seriously flirting with the idea of running for president. LINK

Election Reform

The House Administration Committee plans to have observers standing by in Florida on November 5, per Roll Call 's Nelson. < LINK

Politics

Roll Call 's Cillizza reports on the GOP Senate campaign committee's strategic planning for a run-off in Louisiana, which will hold its Senate primary on November 5, and a run-off on December 7 if no candidate breaks 50 percent of the vote. Highlights: NRSC favorite Suzanne Haik Terrell plans to target independents and swing voters with an economic message, and Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has a run-off account open for business. LINK

Senator John McCain (R) has pulled off the dream of every writer: he's written yet another great book. Of course, when you've had a storybook life, writing a compelling memoir is easier than if you haven't.

On this week's "Here's the Point," McCain talks to Mark Halperin about their shared admiration for the greatest book ever about American presidential politics LINK ; whether John Edwards has what it takes to get to the White House; and why the Yankee Clipper was so incredible.

California

New York

In his first gubernatorial debate ever, Gov. George Pataki (R) pledged not to raise taxes. LINK

"The crowded stage of seven candidates played into the governor's hands at almost every turn." LINK

Iowa

Moderate Republican Rep. Jim Leach is now getting/in need of some serious national GOP assistance, per Roll Call 's Bresnahan. LINK

New Hampshire

Most of the key races are now featuring negative ads, so the candidates are starting to decry them.

The Lawrence Eagle Tribune take a look at the traits of the Sununu men. LINK

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mark Fernald is up with his first TV ad.

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Some day, we'd like to rent the Uptown Theatre and do a film festival of every piece NBC's Jamie Gangel has done on 41, 43, or Jeb. We'd invite everyone we know and let each person be the judge of her Bush oeuvre.

The latest installment apparently comes tomorrow, when Jeb beaks his normal "I don't talk to the national media" rule for — you guessed it — NBC's Jamie Gangel.

Ms. Bumiller offers up a delightfully inside way to look at President Bush's non-stop campaigning: "seven advance teams will be spread across the nation (and the world) this week," doing everything including "food security." LINK

The White House is proud of the fact that the press corps doesn't think they get enough information. "For many reporters and producers, the briefings have become an exercise in frustration, a White House-produced television program in which they say they feel like unamused straight men, there to set up policy punchlines for Mr. Fleischer." LINK

The Washington Post 's Edsall gives the chief of the national carpenters' union a huge build-up as President Bush's closest ally among labor before letting loose with his buried lead: that the union chief is a subject of joint Justice/SEC/Labor Department "inquiries into alleged stock profiteering at a union-run insurance company." "White House officials say they will do nothing to protect" the guy. LINK

The fact that this made the Times this weekend made the weekend for one of us ? LINK