W A S H I N G T O N, October 14 22 Days Until The Election....
Politics generally doesn't take a holiday on Columbus Day, three weeks and one day out from election day. But in a show of solidarity with the Sopranos, we're commemorating the occasion with a mini-Note.
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The Agenda: Click
here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and
today's daybook.
Another reason why we are doing a mini-Note today: We are writing on the ABCNEWS
blackboard 1,000 times each the rules of political journalism that we hope to
follow assiduously for the rest of the campaign.
They work well for network and local news, print and broadcast, and wouldn't
it be grand if we all adhered to them from now until election day?
1. Don't let polls — particularly suspect ones, but even perfectly good
ones — become the way to frame every bit of coverage each day. (And yes,
this especially includes Zogby polls.)
2. Don't cover debates as if you were a theater critic or a sports writer
— debates shouldn't be just about gaffes and fights.
3. Don't play up "video press releases" — campaign and interest group
TV ads that are produced and then barely aired, but given to the press as "real"
ads so they will get earned media — on the air EVER. Or, if you must,
when you air them or write about them, make it clear that they aren't "real"
ads.
4. Don't confuse the various accurate definitions in dealing with sources
and reporting (or not reporting) what they say:
a) "on the record:" "Ed Gillespie says … "
b) "on background:" "A leading Republican strategist says, [insert exact quote
here]."
c) "deep background:" "Republicans are saying [paraphrase of what Republicans
are saying]."
d) "deepest background:" simply enters the reporter's brain, where it mixes
with all other reporting, with no direct or specific reference.
e) "off the record:" not to be reported or repeated, unless permission is given
to do the latter in order to confirm something elsewhere.
5. Don't mistake the "natural tightening" that occurs in the polls at the
end of most races in competitive states for a true surge by the trailing candidate.
6. Don't leave insufficient reportorial resources available for truth-squadding
ads, phone calls, etc., right up through election day.
7. Don't treat ad watch boxes as afterthoughts; don't fail to scrutinize every
ad; and don't write them up as tactics and theater criticism, but as truth-squadding
to help voters sort out the messages.
8. Don't treat Democrat-aligned special interest groups, such as unions and
pro-choice groups, and the money they spend to influence the election any differently
than you treat Republican-aligned groups, such as business and the NRA.
9. Remember that Democrats' cries of "voter intimidation" could lead to GOP
concerns about "vote stealing," and vice versa.
10. Don't forget about provisional ballots, early voting, and absentee voting.
In fact, the New York Times ' Nagourney has a nice story on early
voting today, and how it "has forced candidates and their advisers to rethink
every facet of how they run for office, from what to say to when to say it,
from how to run a get-out-the-vote operation to when to broadcast their first
television advertisements."
LINK
And the Des Moines Register doesn't let Nagourney claim
the story, covering the "unprecedented battle for absentee votes."
LINK
11. (You thought we'd forget?) Don't forget what distinguishes a push poll
from real polling calls and from advocacy phone-banking: push polls are calls
that pretend to be for the purpose of a survey but are, in fact, calls designed
to "push" the respondent toward the candidate who is paying for the calls, or
away from the opposition.
Matthew Dowd, the pollster for President Bush and the Republican National
Committee, plans to distribute an election overview memo to Republicans around
the country sometime early this week. Addressed to the RNC leadership, it clearly
was offered up in advance to put out the party's spin on where things stand,
but there are some things in here with which some Democrats would reluctantly
agree.
"The public's desire, in spite of the Democrat's best efforts to the contrary,
is to not fix political blame for the economy," Dowd says. "They continue to
look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far,
the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue.
This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters
and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming
trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans
are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election."
Beyond the polling numbers themselves, most striking is this Republican admission,
which is somewhat at odds with the happy talk on the economy we usually hear
from Administration spokespeople: "It is amazing that with an economy growing
less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue
or on any of voters' top concerns."
But this truly reflects what even our most truth serum-filled GOP sources
are telling us about the party's mindset.
Honest Democrats would agree with some of this, but say they still have hope
to change things in the three weeks remaining before election day.
Remember: this bullish view (and reality) doesn't mean that the GOP will win
lots of seats on election day — just that they probably won't get the
normal midterm shellacking that the president's party usually faces.
That said, it wouldn't take a shellacking, just a single-digit gain, for Democrats
to win back control of the House.
Along these lines, here are your key clips for the day:
USA Today 's Welch went looking for ad and substantive exchanges over
the war and national and homeland security, and came up with not much more than
the already identified Senate races (the issue really hasn't popped in any House
races yet), proving that it hasn't yet achieved "nationalized" status.
LINK
Roll Call 's Kane writes, "Majority Leader Thomas Daschle (D-S.D.)
is not making plans for a final major push to take up economic issues, such
as pension reform, before adjourning for the elections … [T]he plan for
focusing on the economy appears to rely on press events, on Capitol Hill and
back in the competitive states, hitting on specific issues of local relevance."
LINK
The Washington Times ' Lambro sounds the countering note, focusing
on "widespread grumbling for months among the Democrats' rank and file that
its leadership has done little to enthuse and excite the party's base to turn
out in large numbers in next month's elections."
LINK
The Wall Street Journal reports that House Ways and Means chairman
Thomas plans to bring to the floor on Wednesday a proposal to extend unemployment
benefits in 13 of the hardest hit states; Daschle's spokesperson suggests Democrats
will oppose the measure on the grounds that it's too narrow.
Stuart Rothenberg is "simply not prepared to say that it's so late in the
election cycle that the economy and the poor performance of stocks can't combine
to deliver a blow to the Republicans on Nov. 5." That said, he notes, "The economy
simply hasn't grabbed the public's attention, and voters aren't blaming President
Bush … " LINK
Pocketbook issues may be a relatively recent concern for many members of Congress
who up until last week were more focused on the war, but they're old hat for
governors and gubernatorial candidates on the ballot.
LINK
Ron Brownstein laments today that candidates on the stump and candidates articulating
substantive messages are becoming an endangered species: "Most campaigns this
year seem to be operating at two speeds: vicious and vacuous."
LINK
Beating a similar drum, Pew's Andrew Kohut says in a New York Times
op-ed, "Rarely has the mood of American voters been as inscrutable as in the
current election cycle."
LINK
We're fine-tuning our race ratings as election day looms, with some changes
to our Senate and governor rankings to tell you about.
Among our Senate race ratings, for now, we're moving Texas from Toss-up to
Incumbent Party Favored.
In doing so, we're not suggesting that Democrat Ron Kirk cannot win Phil Gramm's
open seat — only that Kirk has always had to run a better campaign than
GOP nominee John Cornyn to win, with less room for error.
And, in fact, Kirk has made some mistakes.
Also, to win, he needs historically high turnout among African-Americans and
Hispanics, and that remains a question mark.
We will be watching closely in the next week or so, as Kirk and the Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee make their first substantial media buys here,
and perhaps run their first negative ads against Cornyn.
This is still Republican-leaning Texas, and Cornyn is well-funded. But this
race does have the potential to move back to Toss-up before election day. We'll
see.
We are leaving two other Toss-up Senate races in place for now, but watching
them closely.
In Arkansas, incumbent Republican Tim Hutchinson has for months been the GOP's
most endangered incumbent, and at this point, if we were the types to use the
hackneyed phrase "fighting for his political life," we would tell you that Hutchinson
is fighting for his political life.
Indeed, Hutchinson is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent of either party.
Democrats claim, and some Republicans agree, that this race should be moved
to Incumbent Party Likely Loss, but for now, we are leaving it in Toss-up.
New Jersey is the other Senate race we are watching closely to see whether
the TV ad campaign, which has been virtually in suspended animation since Frank
Lautenberg replaced Robert Torricelli on the Democratic line, changes the dynamic.
It is possible that this race will move to Incumbent Party Favored at some
point, but for now it stays where it is.
Our other Toss-ups — Democratic-held seats in Minnesota, Missouri, and
South Dakota, and Republican-held seats in Colorado and New Hampshire —
are not only staying where they are, but they are highly unlikely to EVER move
before election day.
Republicans are still hoping to make Georgia a Toss-up, while Democrats are
still battling hard in North and South Carolina.
However, the incumbent parties claim not to be concerned about their hold
on these Southern states.
Two Senate incumbents move from Incumbent Party Favored to Incumbent Party
Safe. Barring the entry of some big-name write-in candidate, and a huge funding
effort and backlash against the Democrats' now-famous ad, we are calling the
Montana Senate race safe for Democrat Max Baucus.
And in Maine, barring some major development that fundamentally changes things,
Republican Senator Susan Collins is also Safe.
Among the governors races, just one change to tell you about now: we are moving
Alaska from Incumbent Party Loss to Incumbent Party Likely Loss — given
Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer (D) somewhat improved, though still long odds of beating
Senator Frank Murkowski (R) for the open seat.
Governors races we'll keep watching: Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott McCallum
(R) seems to still be in danger of losing his seat, could move from Toss-up
to Incumbent Party Likely Loss; Hawaii, Florida, and Maryland could all move
to Toss-up; and Iowa might move from Toss-up to Incumbent Party Favored, to
reflect Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack's improving status.
And in Florida, some recent public and private polling suggests that Democrat
Bill McBride has turned the race into a Toss-up, but Gov. Jeb Bush's significant
fundraising advantage, and the absence of dynamic-changing negative ads, is
causing us to just keep watching this one for now.
For the full, updated ratings, look here:
The Senate
Today, President Bush heads to Michigan to raise money for Republican candidates,
with no policy events scheduled.
Vice President Gore is in Iowa today, with the usual level of meticulous campaign
scheduling. Gore will stump and raise money for Democratic House candidates
later today, with more of the same tomorrow.
Meanwhile, his former running mate, Joe Lieberman, is in New Hampshire. Senator
John Kerry is in Arizona. And Vermont Gov. Howard Dean actually is in Vermont.
On Tuesday, Bush will address the White House Conference on Increasing Minority
Homeownership at George Washington University.
Wednesday, Bush will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Sharon at the White
House. Out in California, Howard Dean may pick up the endorsement of independent
Senator Jim Jeffords, if the Senate schedule permits.
Thursday, President Bush will head to Atlanta to appear at a fundraiser for
gubernatorial candidate Sonny Perdue and Senate candidate Saxby Chambliss, then
on to Florida for remarks on education at an elementary school in New Smyrna
Beach.
Friday, Bush will address a rally in Springfield, MO, then head to a rally
in Rochester, MN.
As Noted above, Gore is in Iowa today and tomorrow, tailed by the local press
and a posse of national reporters whose efforts likely will appear in some of
your finer papers over the next few days.
Today, Gore will headline events for House candidates Ann Hutchinson in Dubuque
and Julie Thomas in Mount Vernon and Iowa City, then will visit the Iowa coordinated
campaign headquarters in Des Moines.
Tomorrow, Gore will attend a labor breakfast and an education forum with Rep.
Leonard Boswell in Des Moines before heading to a get-out-the-vote rally for
House candidate John Norris in Ames. Later in the day, he'll leave for Milwaukee.
The AP's Lester on Friday afternoon looked at the dilemma Dick Gephardt aspires
to face, should Democrats win back the House: "whether to plunge into [the Speaker's]
job or mount an all-out second run for the presidency in 2004."
"Gephardt, sandy-haired and youthful-looking at 61, has visited 61 cities
in 83 trips for House members and candidates so far this year ? 217 events,
both fund-raisers and rallies … Many Gephardt associates say they expect
him to run for president. Among the half dozen or so Democrats preparing for
possible 2004 campaigns, he and former Vice President Al Gore have national
networks of Democratic supporters and fund-raisers."
His support for the president "on Iraq, projecting a moderate image, could
strengthen fellow Democrats' efforts in many states next month. However, it's
also a stance that wouldn't necessarily help in a bid for the 2004 Democratic
presidential nomination because some early primaries are in states where party
voters might not reward hawkish views."
"While Gephardt has built strong alliances with many traditionally Democratic
groups over the years, he has been reaching out to centrist Democrats this year,
talking of bridging a gap between labor and business."
Gephardt and Tipper Gore get Style section mentions for their turns at the
Human Rights Campaign annual gala in DC last night; Gephardt addressed the dinner.
LINK
Senator John Edwards slipped a statement into the record Friday night, per
one source who didn't want it to go unnoticed. In the statement, Edwards outlined
some specific proposals to boost the economy, and repeated his call to freeze
the tax cut for the top rates.
LINK
We wonder whether this statement is meant to be a test run of ideas for Edwards'
economic policy speech, still date TBD, just as his floor statement on Iraq
preceded his foreign policy speech last week.
Some of the proposals: "a one-time refundable energy tax cut of $500 per family,"
and raising the bonus for businesses to invest "in new equipment from 30 percent
to 45 percent — a 50 percent increase --" but through June 30, 2002 only.
Edwards' wife Elizabeth rarely does much public speaking. That changed Saturday
morning when she gave her first major speech, addressing several hundred women
at a Democratic women's breakfast in Asheville, NC.
LINK
The Note didn't see Bob Novak in the room during last weekend's J-J dinner
in Iowa, but somehow he got his own unique take on what happened: "Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean, a long shot for the Democratic Presidential nomination, was the
unexpected star at last weekend's annual Iowa Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des
Moines."
LINK
"Some Iowa Democrats attending didn't quite know who Dean was, with one referring
to him as 'that New Hampshire governor guy.' Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa in his
speech repeatedly called him 'John Dean.' Nevertheless, the Iowans clearly liked
what they heard from Dean, who at one point described Iowa as 'Vermont, ironed
out.'"
"A footnote: The bust of the Des Moines cattle call for Presidential hopefuls
was Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. Although some women said they liked
the good-looking Edwards, the consensus was that he had 'said nothing.'"
Following his extensive visit around the state recently, New Hampshire Democrats
are trying to figure out if Gen. Wesley Clark is seriously flirting with the
idea of running for president. LINK
Roll Call 's Cillizza reports on the GOP Senate campaign committee's
strategic planning for a run-off in Louisiana, which will hold its Senate primary
on November 5, and a run-off on December 7 if no candidate breaks 50 percent
of the vote. Highlights: NRSC favorite Suzanne Haik Terrell plans to target
independents and swing voters with an economic message, and Democratic Senator
Mary Landrieu has a run-off account open for business.
LINK
Senator John McCain (R) has pulled off the dream of every writer: he's written
yet another great book. Of course, when you've had a storybook life, writing
a compelling memoir is easier than if you haven't.
On this week's "Here's the Point," McCain talks to Mark Halperin about their
shared admiration for the greatest book ever about American presidential politics
LINK ; whether John Edwards has what it takes to get to the White House;
and why the Yankee Clipper was so incredible.
Some day, we'd like to rent the Uptown Theatre and do a film festival of every
piece NBC's Jamie Gangel has done on 41, 43, or Jeb. We'd invite everyone we
know and let each person be the judge of her Bush oeuvre.
The latest installment apparently comes tomorrow, when Jeb beaks his normal
"I don't talk to the national media" rule for — you guessed it —
NBC's Jamie Gangel.
Ms. Bumiller offers up a delightfully inside way to look at President Bush's
non-stop campaigning: "seven advance teams will be spread across the nation
(and the world) this week," doing everything including "food security."
LINK
The White House is proud of the fact that the press corps doesn't think they
get enough information. "For many reporters and producers, the briefings have
become an exercise in frustration, a White House-produced television program
in which they say they feel like unamused straight men, there to set up policy
punchlines for Mr. Fleischer."
LINK
The Washington Post 's Edsall gives the chief of the national carpenters'
union a huge build-up as President Bush's closest ally among labor before letting
loose with his buried lead: that the union chief is a subject of joint Justice/SEC/Labor
Department "inquiries into alleged stock profiteering at a union-run insurance
company." "White House officials say they will do nothing to protect" the guy.
LINK
The fact that this made the Times this weekend made the weekend for
one of us ?
LINK
—9:30 am, Vice President Cheney headlines fundraiser for Rep. John Sullivan, Tulsa, OK
— 9:45 am, White House off-camera morning gaggle
—10:00 am, Senate meets to consider election reform conference report
—10:30 am, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt makes remarks on the economy, National Press Club, DC
— 10:45 am, Senate Majority Leader Daschle briefs
—11:00 am, Senate Minority Leader Lott briefs
— 12:10 pm, Vice President Cheney makes remarks upon arrival, Tinker AFB, OK
— 12:15 pm, closed Senate party policy luncheons
— 12:30 pm, White House on-camera briefing
— 12:30 pm, House meets for morning business, followed by legislative business
—1:05 pm, Vice President Cheney headlines fundraiser for House candidate Tom Cole, Midwest City, OK
— 1:55 pm, President Bush addresses White House conference on increasing minority home ownership, George Washington University, DC
— Oct. 14-15: Former Vice President Gore visits Iowa — Oct. 14-15: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits New Hampshire
— Oct. 15: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 15: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct: 15: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Moorehead — Oct. 15-17: Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn) travels to Iowa
— Oct. 16: Federal pre-general campaign finance period ends — Oct. 16: Treasury Secretary O'Neill keynotes National Association of Manufacturers board of directors meeting, DC
— Oct. 17: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Rochester — Oct. 17: Rep. Tom Davis (R) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D) at National Press Club — Oct. 17: Secretary of State Colin Powell keynotes Al Smith dinner, New York
— Oct. 18: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate — Oct. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for September due
— Oct. 18: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Clemson — Oct. 18: New Hampshire Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with Sen. John Edwards as host
— Oct. 19: Sen. John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live, New York
— Oct. 19: Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley visits Iowa
— Oct. 19: AFL-CIO begins pre-election get-out-the-vote rallies — Oct. 20: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Florida — Oct. 20: Sen. John Kerry address Nashua Democrats, NH
— Oct. 20: Former President Bush holds fundraiser for Rep. Greg Ganske, Des Moines
— Oct. 20: South Carolina Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Alabama gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Tennessee Senate candidates debate — Oct. 21: Index of leading economic indicators for September figure due
— Oct. 21: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Minnesota Senate candidates debate, St. Cloud
— Oct. 21: Missouri Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: New Hampshire Senate candidates debate at the University of New Hampshire
— Oct. 21: New Hampshire 1st Congressional District debate on WMUR.
— Oct. 22: New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District debate on WMUR and NHPTV
— Oct. 22: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 22: New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates debate — Oct. 23-24: FEC holds rule-making hearings on coordinated and independent expenditures — Oct. 23: Former President Clinton headlines a megafundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Pre-general campaign finance report due to FEC
— Oct. 24: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Missouri Senate candidates debate
— OCt. 24: New Hampshire gubernatorial debate — Oct. 24-25: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Texas to campaign for Democratic candidates — Oct. 25: Durable goods orders, new home sales and existing home sales figures due
— Oct. 25: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Columbia
— Oct. 25: New Hampshire Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday — Oct. 26: Karl Rove headlines 2nd Annual Ronald Reagan dinner, Des Moines, Iowa
— Oct. 28: Minnesota Senate candidates debate — Oct. 30: (tenative) South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: SpeakUp! Youth Forum with New York gubernatorial candidates
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma — Oct. 31: Estimate of third quarter GDP is released — Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due — Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
— Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative). — Nov. 5: Election Day — Nov. 5: President and Laura Bush's silver wedding anniversary. — Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure and soft money rules go into effect
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego
— Nov. 17: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 18: Elizabeth Dole campaign e-spam lawsuit trial date
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Nov. 30: Special election to replace Rep. Patsy Mink (D), Hawaii-02
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: DGA winter holiday event, DC
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Gov. Gray Davis's birthday — Jan, 1 2003: New federal individual contribution limits take effect (tentative) — Jan 18, 2003: Linn County, Iowa Third Annual sustaining banquet with guests to be announced.
— Jan. 22: National March for Life, Washington, DC
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday — Jan 30-Feb. 1, 2003: Conservative Political Action Conference, Crystal City, Virginia
— Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday — Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— May 27, 2003: Jury selection begins in U.S. vs. Moussaoui
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— June 30, 2003: tentative start date for Mossaoui trial
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday
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