W A S H I N G T O N, October 25 11 Days Until The Election....
In the 50-50 nation, no matter how well things are going for your party on any given day, you always have to be on guard for some last-minute, pre-elex shift in the wind which could turn the prevailing stalemate into a 51-49 outcome that could have huge, Jeffordsonian reverberations.
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The Washington Post 's Mike Allen today lifts the White House rock and sees scurrying ants worrying about the economy and its potential effect on the midterm elections, cleverly turning his news-of-day story into a chronicle of a semi-seismic shift in attitude at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Allen writes, "White House officials said they have become concerned that domestic issues are helping Democrats suddenly gain traction in a string of critical Senate races, and Bush is counterpunching by recalibrating his stump speech to emphasize jobs, prescription drugs and education."
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"A senior administration official said concern about such issues is dominating individual campaigns in a way that national polls have not reflected. 'These guys on the local level are running hard on the economy, and the president can help,' the official said. 'Some may call these Democratic issues, but we believe that having the president being forceful and taking action on these is a welcome contrast to the Democratic Senate,' the official said."
"The new talking point of White House officials is that they 'welcome the debate on domestic issues,' and they say they are eager to debunk the notion that Bush and his candidates were reluctant to tackle those subjects when presidential popularity and worries about war seemed to be carrying the day."
"Inside the White House, aides have begun to fret aloud that the elections could turn in sudden and unpredictable ways. The White House Office of Strategic Initiatives, overseen by Bush senior adviser Karl C. Rove, tried to accentuate the positive today by issuing a new internal polling analysis concluding that voters trust Republicans to handle the war on terrorism, the situation with Iraq, and taxes."
"Bush speaks to invitation-only audiences, and although his strategists are keen to showcase his concern about kitchen-table issues, his commander-in-chief lines still get much bigger cheers."
Regarding Mike's lead about "White House officials … concerned that domestic issues are helping Democrats suddenly gain traction in a string of critical Senate races," let's review where we are on those critical races.
Six US Senate seats seem irrevocably to be toss-ups through November 5: Democrats are defending very vulnerable incumbents in Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota, and Republicans must safeguard equally shaky incumbents in Arkansas and Colorado, as well as an open seat in New Hampshire.
A little niggling could be done over which of these six seats are in worse shape than the others, but the fact is that several thousand votes, or a few tens of thousands of votes, could — and possibly will — decide any or all six of 'em.
With such an even playing field at the 50-50 yard line, and with all that soon-to-be-illegal soft money to spend, both Senate campaign committees are doing right by their parties by trying to shake things up among the next most vulnerable tier of seats.
Republicans are looking beyond the toss-up seats to Georgia, and beyond that, to Iowa and New Jersey. Democrats are not giving up on the four Southern GOP open seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee — possibly/probably in that order.
But there is a big gap between the Big Six and the next tier right now in terms of competitiveness. And thus, those six will probably go a long way toward deciding who "wins" the election.
(Except, of course, if the president's brother loses his re-election campaign, which would be a big Democratic trump card in the media's analysis of the results. See "FLORIDA" below for a new Bill McBride ad that sounds smashing, if not necessarily determinative.)
Republicans have done a lot more with the national political press to set the expectations bar for election night, in part because of their constant cultural/sociological need to form a protective candy-coating shell around President Bush, and in part because they still have this nagging feeling that all of the media is against them (except for Carl Cameron*) and they want to try to apply pressure for a fair shake.
Except for Republican talk about the war, all the candidates are out there basically talking up, and fighting over, domestic issues.
Democrats are arguing in favor of divided government — keeping Democrats in control of the Senate as a check on President Bush and the (likely to remain) Republican House.
Republicans, with Bush as Spokesman-in-Chief, are arguing against the "dysfunctional" Democrat-run Senate and asking for unified government — though they don't always phrase it that way.
No one in the media has really focused enough yet on what the implications will be on American lives should one or the other win out. Ralph Z. Hallow takes a brief stab at it today, looking at the ideological shift that would occur in the Senate should the GOP retake control with their 2002 crop of candidates, and upon the retirements of several of the chamber's staunchest conservatives.
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The New York Times gets at the "undivided government" theme by following Senate Minority Leader Lott to Arkansas, where he campaigned for his vulnerable colleague, and touted what the citizenry will get (maybe) if the GOP wins unified control: "Confirmation of 50 or more judges nominated by President Bush is high on his list. Making permanent the 10-year tax cuts Congress approved last year is another priority. He said he would pass the Republican version of prescription drug coverage for older Americans, bar a form of late-term abortion opponents call partial-birth abortion and protect gun rights."
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And Dr./Senator Frist does a little code revealing for the message on which many of his challenging and incumbent candidates are running, which is meant to trump the Democrats' weakly (albeit under-)delivered, pro-divided government argument: "'This election has moved beyond party loyalty to the need to revive the Senate as an effective institution.'"
If the Democrats "lose" this election, the big "what could they have done differently?" debate will revolve around why they did not/could not make the economy more of an issue.
And oh, what might have been for the Democrats if the national environment were supercharged enough to cause stories like this Rober Pear New York Times special to turn a floating cinder into a brushfire: "Bush administration officials say they have become deeply concerned that a cut in Medicare payments to doctors, to be announced next week, will prompt many doctors to limit their participation in the program, reducing access to health care for the elderly … " LINK
"In March, doctors in a dozen states said, in interviews with The New York Times , that they were refusing to take new Medicare patients because Medicare was paying them too little to cover their costs. A second cut will accelerate the trend, doctors said this week … ."
"Administration officials said President Bush's chief of staff, Andrew H. Card Jr., and his senior political adviser, Karl Rove, had taken an interest in the cut, in part because the administration did not want to alienate doctors or the elderly two weeks before Election Day. Democratic candidates are always hunting for evidence to back their argument that Republicans want to cut Medicare."
President Bush hit the road yesterday to bolster the GOP's prospects in, among other races, two of those four Southern open seats Democrats are eyeing, and Ron "Who WAS Walter Mears?" Fournier went with him, producing a nicely layered story on the politics of the war and (not "versus") the economy.
Bush's "12-hour campaign blitz was designed to reinforce the strategy of southern GOP candidates: Portray their Democratic opponents as tax-raising liberals who are out of step with the region's conservative voters."
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"The national Democratic Party, shadowing Bush's every step, issued statements in the Carolinas and Alabama blaming Bush for the ailing economy. In North Carolina, for example, the unemployment rate has increased by 1.6 percent under Bush, and North Carolina investors have lost $5 billion in their 401(k) plans, Democrats said."
"Despite the economy, Bush's approval rating is unusually high, mainly due to his anti-terrorism efforts. Thus, Republican candidates like to hear him talk tough about Iraq."
Per the other wire service: "President Bush swept through the South on Thursday, putting his prestige on the line in a high-stakes bid to hold on to two Senate seats held by Republicans for decades."
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In Charlotte, NC, "[t]he president, both actually and figuratively, embraced [GOP Senate nominee Elizabeth] Dole on the stage of the Charlotte Coliseum. Dole returned the favor with a buss on Bush's cheek."
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"The Republican rally featured heavy partisan rhetoric, as various GOP candidates suggested that Republicans were more godly, that Democrats coddled terrorists and that Democrats were even responsible for traffic jams."
In South Carolina, "Bush told 4,400 cheering supporters at the Columbia airport's Jimmy Doolittle hangar South Carolina needs a governor like Mark Sanford and a U.S. senator like Lindsey Graham."
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"Bush said Sanford would reform education and overcome the 'soft bigotry of low expectations,' the love of the status quo that forces students to stay in failing classrooms and schools. He also lauded Graham, saying he would be a reliable voice for conservative values and a reliable vote for his presidential agenda."
Bush announced that he had invited Senator Strom Thurmond to the White House for his 100th birthday, "said Senate Democrats … have stifled his agenda," "blasted Democrats for opposing his tax cuts and plans to create a Department of Homeland Security," and "also said the Senate has done a 'lousy job' seating federal judges."
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Walter Shapiro, in a column that offers the genius image of "Air Force One swooping down like a bird of prey on dozens of tight elections," looks at how the "Bush Factor" is playing in one of the country's few truly toss-up House races, for Indiana's 2nd district.
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"Will the president defy history and bequeath some of his popularity to hard-pressed GOP candidates? Or is the high-flying Bush setting himself up for a rough landing?"
One area where the president still seems to not have taken on midterm water (but wait for the re-elect, Democrats are whispering) is the federal budget.
And, the Washington Post 's Milbank notes that upon the official declaration late yesterday that "the federal government officially returned to the red for the first time since 1997," "Democrats pounced on the official figures — a $286 billion swing from the previous year — as evidence that the Bush administration had presided over what the opposition called the largest one-year fiscal reversal in the nation's history."
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"House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) countered that the numbers represented 'an incredible turnaround, probably the most stunning change in figures we've ever seen.' In an interview, Gephardt indicated Democrats would use the new figures as evidence of broader economic troubles as they campaign for the Nov. 5 midterm elections."
"The 2002 budget figures were scheduled to be released today, but the administration released the key numbers last night in what Democrats interpreted as an effort to bury the bad news on a day dominated by developments in the sniper case."
Today, Vice President Cheney's lawyers are expected to file his response in the Halliburton shareholder lawsuit. LINK
Note to reporters: Senate and House campaigns receiving contributions in excess of $999.99 from now until election have to report it to the Federal Election Commission within 48 hours, so remember to remind your readers and graphic-makers that the numbers we are getting now aren't "final."
USA Today 's Stone and Lawrence are the latest to note the silence among Democrats on guns: "Those counting on the Democratic Party to aggressively promote controversial gun-control measures may be disappointed. Increasingly, Democratic candidates in parts of the country are advertising their pro-gun views. Their leaders in Washington are steering clear of the issue."
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"Some Democrats in this year's campaigns are posing with rifles and hunters, while others stress the need for more restrictions and better ways to trace weapons. Republicans in urban or liberal-leaning areas highlight their commitment to enforcing existing laws. Those looking for votes from cultural conservatives use gun rights to contrast their values with those of their opponents."
The Wall Street Journal on A4 looks at how the legislative debate on guns might change.
The New Republic's niftily clever Peter Beinart has a classicly CW-exploding TRB that just might make you re-think the Iraq issue, or, if you are a Democrat who doesn't mind somewhat selective poll reading, make you did a little V-8 jig. LINK
"[I]t's just possible that the punditocracy is as wrong today about the political impact of the war as it was about the political impact of impeachment in 1998."
"Two key assumptions have led the commentariat astray. The first is that this campaign is a struggle between 'the economy,' which favors Democrats, and 'national security,' which favors Republicans. That's misleading because 'national security' lumps the war on terrorism and the prospective war on Iraq together … "
"The second reason the media assumes that Iraq favors the Republicans is that in national polls most Americans support the war. But for most war supporters, Iraq is not a voting issue."
The piece, good as it is, has at least one major flaw: it confuses The Note with a Tom Mann, Norm Ornstein, and Steve Hess lunch in the AEI dining room.
The Wall Street Journal 's "Washington Wire" says: "Postelection shake-up of Bush economic team is the buzz in GOP."
"Talk persists that Treasury Secretary O'Neill or White House economic adviser Lindsey will leave. O'Neill says he'll stay as long as Bush wants, but adds, 'I've got lots of other things I can do.' A New York Stock Exchange spokesman says rumors that chief Dick Grasso wants the Treasury job are 'absolutely false.'"
"A third of voters say they have a 'great deal' or 'quite a bit' of confidence in Bush's team. An equal number have 'very little' or 'no confidence.' Voters split on whether Bush is tending enough to the economy."
Richard Stevenson is simply NOT a supply sider. See the fifth graph.
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Republican Senator Charles Grassley gets a letter published in the New York Times butting heads with Paul Krugman on who has benefitted from Bush-era tax cuts, but our guess is that Krugman will say the Senator overlooks the estate tax cut and the difference between a percentage and an absolute amount.
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The New York Times ' Robert Pear leads wonky ("Former Vice President Al Gore said today that a 'dangerous weakness in our health care system' made the United States vulnerable to terrorist attacks using anthrax, smallpox and other biological weapons … Aides to Mr. Gore said he believed that an immediate infusion of $10 billion was needed to upgrade the health system"), but then gets straight to the politics of the former Veep's health care speech.
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"Mr. Gore, who won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote in the 2000 presidential election, is considering another bid for the White House. His speech today, at George Washington University, was the latest evidence of his effort to prove that he would be a viable candidate in 2004."
And read how ferociously a Bush Health and Human Services assistant secretary responds to Mr. Gore for his charge.
And, Howard Dean, take Note: "Mr. Gore denounced Mr. Bush's record on health care, saying the president had done little to expand health insurance coverage, guarantee patients' rights or lower the costs of prescription drugs."
"But, Mr. Gore said, the goal of broader insurance coverage, a high priority for the Clinton administration and for Mr. Gore's campaign in 2000, 'must now take, temporarily, a back seat to the urgent need' to prepare people for the possibility of an attack with biological weapons."
Gore didn't appear to talk about how he would pay for his proposals. (And by "didn't appear" we mean, no disrespect intended, that we didn't have time to cover the speech ourselves.)
"In the third of a series of policy speeches before the November midterm election, Gore largely set aside partisan criticism of the Bush administration to try to open a new front in the debate over health care policy," notes Mr. Balz in the Washington Post . "He said that the lack of health insurance coverage for millions of Americans must take 'a back seat' to the more pressing threat of improving the public health service's capacity to deal with an attack from anthrax, smallpox or ebola."
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From the latest NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll: "Support for Bush now may not mean 2004 votes."
"Almost two-thirds of registered voters support Bush's performance, but just 45% say their next presidential pick is 'probably Bush.' Nearly half either say they'll likely back a Democrat, or that their choice 'depends' on Bush's rival."
"If the 2004 contest were today, Bush 'could face as competitive a race as the one he faced in 2000,' say the Journal/NBC pollsters, Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Robert Teeter. Democratic voters' job rating for the president is down 31 points since January. Declines in support for his handling of the economy, now 48%, crosses party lines."
"As for Bush's 2000 foe, 53% of self-described Democratic voters say Al Gore shouldn't run again."
This weekend, Gore will be in New Hampshire. On Monday, he plans to attend a victory rally for Democrats at Michigan State University.
The Keene, NH pumpkin festival is one of the Granite State's most happy traditions, and one of the best political photo ops in the state (just ask Brian Montgomery).
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Will anyone who wants to be the Democratic nominee have the good sense to rush up there ASAP this weekend and take part in Guinness World Record history?
The Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner writes up "well-connected" former Clinton aide Jonathan Prince's speechwriting and consulting work for Senator John Edwards. "Edwards' political action committee … has paid Prince $7,500 a month for his part-time help."
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"Prince apparently has committed to working with Edwards as far down the road as Edwards' 2004 presidential aspirations take him."
To whom, we wonder, does Mr. Wagner think Mr. Prince is "well-connected" — beyond, of course, Londoner Jamie Rubin?
Edwards' PAC also "sent $5,000 to the Senate campaign of Frank Lautenberg less than a week after the former senator from New Jersey became the replacement candidate for the embattled incumbent, Bob Torricelli. Another $5,000 was shipped to the Arizona Democratic Party."
Wagner also looks at a national take on the Senator's presidential prospects …
And he adds, "Edwards is looking at several options during the week of Nov. 11 to deliver the second in a series of major policy speeches this fall. This one will be on the economy, which Edwards has recently accused Bush of ignoring. A previous address focused on foreign policy. Still to come is a speech on education."
That NATO trip mentioned earlier is likely to happen in early December.
Sean Hannity doesn't seem to care for Gore, Daschle, or Gephardt.
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Eleven days to go, and the political news in many competitive states is dominated by coverage of alleged voter fraud and alleged voter intimidation. Could this become the single most important dynamic of the next week and a half?
Could the election be nationalized around irregularities? Cynically, we think of reasons for both parties to want to try to play up their grievances as much as possible, but we do worry that the more than 15,000 lawyers who will swarm precincts on election day will not necessarily calm any tensions.
Here's an overview of where things stand and where the Department of Justice will send its monitors: LINK
But wait. One potential source of mass confusion — the provisional ballot situation in Missouri — seems to have been amicably resolved, allowing the Show-Me State to show the nation how to do it.
"The Republican secretary of state and two ranking Democratic officeholders reached a compromise Thursday on allowing provisional voters — those voters whose eligibility is in question on Election Day — the right to vote immediately on Nov. 5." LINK
"Under an agreement hammered out with Cole County Circuit Court Judge Byron Kinder, if election officials can't verify a voter's eligibility, they must contact the local election authority, such as a county clerk. If the election authority can't be reached immediately or can't immediately verify eligibility, the voter must be given a provisional ballot."
"Secretary of State Matt Blunt had said this week that his rules allowed provisional ballots to would-be voters if election officials couldn't be reached, but Democrats maintained that his written rules were stricter that his verbal explanation."
"The new rule, which goes into effect at 5 p.m. today, ended a lawsuit against Blunt filed last week by State Auditor Claire McCaskill and state Senator Maida Coleman."
In South Dakota, actual absentee ballot fraud appears — and we choose the word carefully — to be limited. Fifteen "bogus" ballot applications have turned up so far, but investigators say as many as 1,700 could be compromised. Twenty-five counties are under scrutiny.
"All the alleged instances of ballot fraud discovered so far are tied to Becky Red Earth-Villeda, Barnett said. Red Earth-Villeda — also known by her Dakota name, Maka Duta — was an independent contractor in the Democratic Party's efforts to increase Native American participation in the election."
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We'll be watching this closely, as we know lawyers from the RNC and NRSC are.
In Georgia, two of the bigger counties pronounced themselves eager and ready and proudly displayed their new touch-screen voting machines.
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A Wall Street Journal editorial looks at alleged shenanigans in the Wisconsin governor's race, and the more general concerns over potential abuses in early and absentee voting.
"The Libertarian Party is launching 'a sneak attack' against Senator Max Cleland (D-Ga.), hoping to attract black voters who otherwise might vote for the freshman senator. The party's national political director, Ron Crickenberger, sent out an e-mail this week to several conservative e-mail lists urging readers to give money to maximize the vote of Sandy Thomas, the Libertarian running against Cleland and Rep. C. Saxby Chambliss (R)."
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The Hartford Courant's Lightman warns everyone to never underestimate the ability of voters to surprise the pundit class. LINK
Knight-Ridder ace Steve Thomma and colleagues overview the House map. LINK
Republicans have humorously responded to the Democrats' flash movie on Social Security that portrayed President Bush pushing an old lady off a cliff. LINK
Instead of killing an old woman, Bush-as-Superman lifts her to a heaven of security in her latter years. (We think.)
Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) please-please-pleases for cash in an Straight Talk America e-mail. LINK
A New York Times correction sort of suggests, counterfactually, that John Podesta (whose latent strength as a candidate in the Iowa caucuses continues to be overlooked by the national media) was never White House chief of staff. LINK
The Wall Street Journal runs an op-ed on House Battleground: Shimkus vs. Phelps.
(Secret) message to Walter: we kid because we love when we say: we are SURE you didn't know that Jeff Greenfield used that Seinfeld thing not too long ago.
The AP's Lester looks at how the FPOTUS has "carefully targeted where and how he campaigns to avoid stirring up Republican voters who dislike him as much as Democrats like him."
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"Clinton's staff estimates he'll have done 100 campaign events by Election Day and spent much more time offering advice, quietly raising money and recording radio spots and automated phone messages. Some candidates in GOP-leaning states want his help in a more private way."
"For example, Clinton is campaigning for Democratic McCall in New York over the next couple of days. He plans to attend a rally with California Gov. Gray Davis and then travel to campaign stops in Hawaii and Oregon."
No mention of those robo calls, for which we are still looking (and you know who you are … ).
Howard Kurtz looks at the 2002 campaign ad "smackdown," noting that "the biggest growth area has been in ads that attempt to link candidates to corporate corruption, either personally or politically."
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The New York Times ' Janofsky, writing from his semi-home of Denver, looks at Democrats' chances for some 2002 success in the near West.
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His list of "reasons why," however, is sure to make Republican National Committee message czarina Mindy Tucker pull on her hair: "But to academics, pollsters and experts in Western policy, the expected Democratic gains demonstrate a thirst for pragmatic solutions, a souring on rigid ideology and, after years of one-party domination and conservative policies, a willingness to let someone else lead."
We will bet you $3 right now that Mr. Moose has a press conference at 4:00 p.m. ET, because, per the Union Leader, "On Friday 'Inside Politics with Judy Woodruff' will be broadcasting live from PSNH Energy Park in Manchester. New Hampshire politics and candidate interviews will be featured prominently in the program, which airs weekdays from 4 to 5 p.m." Except when it doesn't.. LINK
Fascinating. And kudos to Democrat oppo research. And we wonder how long they have been sitting on this.
"Bill McBride, the Democratic nominee for governor, has bagged the biggest endorsement of his campaign: Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. 'He really is one of the great Floridians of our time,' Bush says of McBride — the same opponent the governor has been attacking as a 'reckless corporate lawyer' in ads for months."
"Bush's high praise, videotaped for an awards ceremony at McBride's former law firm in 1999, begins airing today statewide. The McBride campaign has made Bush's remarks the centerpiece of a new TV ad challenging the governor for running attack ads against McBride."
"The Democrat's tactic — using the kind words of his opponent in a campaign-closing commercial — has no precedent in modern statewide campaigns."
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The Bush campaign called it a desperate "hail Mary" and told the Sentinel they knew it was coming.
And they have their own ammo: a "Nov. 15, 1999, St. Petersburg Times dispatch from Jerusalem covering McBride's travel then with Bush on a trade mission to Israel. McBride praised Bush then as 'a person who cares for people,' and said the governor had used his first year in office to 'boldly tackle problems.'"
"'McBride described traveling with Bush as similar to being in the company of a rock star, the newspaper reported at the time. 'There is gravity and substance to this governor,' McBride was quoted as saying. 'He knows how to do the right thing.'"
"'Has the governor said nice things about Bill McBride? Absolutely. Has Bill McBride said nice things about Jeb Bush? Absolutely. The governor makes hundreds of these videos,'Harris said. 'He was asked by his friends at Holland & Knight to make one for McBride, and he was nice enough to do it … The fact that they would now turn around and use the governor's kind gesture against him speaks volumes.'"
By the way, Housing Secretary Mel Martinez will appear on Jeb's behalf in Orange County, today at a "campaign picnic."
The McFeud (that would be the Terry McAuliffe-Carl McCall flap) gets another day of coverage. Both sides want the matter to go away, and maybe it will, but it certainly seems insane to think that THIS is the state into which Democrats want to plunge their 2004 convention, leather jackets be damned.
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George from Yale is arguably the most intense, tactical, strategic fundraiser in American politics, but the "George from Yale" in question just might be "Pataki" of New York.
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New York's newspapers had gone a day or two without writing a pre-election Carl McCall obit quoting Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, so Shaila "Coach K" Dewan's newspaper writes one today. LINK
It looks like Rush and Molloy had no trouble "getting in" to Wednesday night's big McCall Featuring the Clintons fundraiser at Lotus, even if the New York Times is still acting like press access was completely shut down. LINK and LINK
We're not quite sure how this fits in with the $2 million that he reportedly gave his campaign earlier this week … maybe this is instead of that $2 million, or maybe it is on top of it, but "Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon Jr. reported Thursday that he has lent an additional $1.25 million to his financially struggling campaign," per the Los Angeles Times . "The businessman-candidate's latest loan brings his personal investment in his candidacy to more than $10.25 million."
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Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob Ehrlich has passed Lt. Gov Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) in fundraising. "Townsend, though, had more than twice as much money as Ehrlich left to spend."
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All five gubernatorial nominees met last night for "a debate that at times careened out of control."
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"A more aggressive Republican Mitt Romney hammered Democrat Shannon P. O'Brien with fresh verve in last night's fourth gubernatorial debate while O'Brien, even as she counterpunched, implored for an end to scorching attacks. Romney at every turn took the debate directly to O'Brien … O'Brien took a more subdued tone than in the three past debates, often didn't respond and, because of a confusing format, wasn't allowed to."
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Senator Tom Harkin (D) invited Republican challenger Greg Ganske to go hunting with him. Ganske said no.
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The Register has a long look at Mr. Harkin's political career and ideology. LINK
House candidate Ann Hutchinson will deliver the Democratic radio response on Saturday. We wonder: has the Democrats' clever granting of these slots to candidates in tough races had any effect back home?
"A torrent of PAC money for Republican Senator Wayne Allard and a flurry of individual and union gifts for Democratic challenger Tom Strickland pushed their race over $9 million in two weeks of frenetic fundraising." LINK
"The fundraising totals as of mid-October: Strickland at $4.24 million and Allard at $4.86 million."
"The rapid flow left Strickland with $124,000 in cash on Oct. 16 before the final fundraising and TV push of the campaign."
"Allard also had three- quarters of a million dollars in the bank."
President Bush will campaign for Allard yet again, on Monday.
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The Sioux Falls Argus Leader called yesterday's Senate debate "rancorous" and "confusing."
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"Each accused the other of failing senior citizens on prescription drug costs, of falling short on drought aid and generally being ineffective in representing South Dakota's needs in his congressional body. And each assailed the other for personal attacks in television advertisements, while both said they hadn't questioned the other's character."
"Actual issues discussed during the debate, which was sponsored by the Argus Leader, the Rapid City Journal and South Dakota Public Broadcasting, included drought assistance, providing injured veterans with full benefits and a possible invasion of Iraq."
"Thune has criticized Johnson for his initial opposition to the Persian Gulf more than a decade ago, and particularly his participation in legal action against the president then."
"He went so far as to sue the president of the United States,' Thune said. 'That is something I think most people would think is going over the top as far as making a statement."
"Johnson, who has a son in active military duty, said the "so-called lawsuit' was a request to the U.S. Supreme Court to clarify the president's authority. And he said that situation was much different than the move into Afghanistan, which he supported, or the potential war against Iraq."
Coverage of Commerce Secretary Evans' visit to Arkansas received plenty of input from Democratic Senate candidate Mark Pryor. LINK
The latest finance numbers:
"U.S. Senate candidate Mark Pryor collected more than double that of U.S. Senator Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., the first 15 days of October, the latest federal campaign finance reports show. Pryor raised $335,796 compared with Hutchinson's $162,487, from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, according to the candidates' Federal Election Commission reports filed Thursday." LINK
"Hutchinson wins, however, in total contributions for the Nov. 5 election, having raised $4.5 million to Pryor's $3.6 million. The filings are called the 12-day pre-election reports because they are due 12 days before the election."
"During the 15-day period, Pryor reported spending $459,407, leaving him with $174,491 on hand. Hutchinson spent $518,297, and had $556,541 remaining."
"Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu is well ahead of three Republican challengers but may not have enough support to avoid a runoff, according to a poll published Thursday. Landrieu was the choice of 44 percent of those surveyed in the poll published in Louisiana's Gannett-owned newspapers. Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell had 20 percent, state Rep. John Cooksey 15 percent and state Rep. Tony Perkins 6 percent."
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"Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone and his Republican challenger, Norm Coleman, amassed $19.4 million in donations through Oct. 15, shattering the record for two candidates in a Minnesota U.S. Senate race." LINK
"Wellstone reported raising $1.4 million during that period, and $11.1 million to date. Coleman brought in about $700,000 and has collected $8.3 million."
Gubernatorial candidate Tim Pawlenty (R) was to called to account for an ad of his that warns of "foreigners," and he's not talking about the band.
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Despite Democrat suspicions that the national GOP might be on the cusp of writing off the Garden State Senate race, Doug Forrester has for now a decent financial situation: he has thrice the cash on hand of his opponent, former Senator Frank Lautenberg. (D).
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Lautenberg did loan himself $1 million yesterday.
The AP sees the Rudy-blessed Forrester "apparently gaining momentum."
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If The Note ever gets married, dollars to donuts the wedding will be held at the Event Center at CR Sparks in Bedford, NH, where yesterday, Ken Starr gave a speech at the Cornerstone Policy Research annual Steward of the Family banquet that seemed on one poetic level to have been intended simply to make James Carville's blood boil.
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Yesterday's debate ran the gamut from substantive policy discussions, to emotionally laden comments, to stumbles, to colorful third-party candidates who take pro-slavery reparation stances.
The Post -Dispatch selects this exchange as the most tense moment: "'I resent being told that I'm unpatriotic by my opponent,' Carnahan said tersely, as she recounted her support for a homeland security plan before President George W. Bush had proposed one. Looking directly at Talent, Carnahan wagged her finger and added, 'I don't want you to doubt it again.'" LINK
"Talent, visibly irritated, made a point during his remaining time to emphasize that he was questioning her positions, not her patriotism."
Thank you, Steve Scully, for letting us see that Green Party candidate in action.
"Kansas attorney general candidate Phill Kline has an ad running in some parts of Kansas that shows President Bush endorsing him. What it does not say: Although Bush endorses Kline for attorney general, he was not the president when he made the television spot."
LINK
"Four groups representing the families of victims of the Sept. 11 attacks criticized U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) on Thursday for helping to block an independent investigation into the terrorist assault," the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Weirdly enough, the fact that the town of Bucksnort will host its second adult video store is bigger news to the Tennessean than what the political campaigns did yesterday.
LINK
"Buoyed by a steady stream of personal loans, Democrat Erskine Bowles headed into the final stretch of the U.S. Senate race with more money in the bank than Republican Elizabeth Dole," says the Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner.
LINK
"Dole continued to be the more prolific fund-raiser, taking in nearly $1.1 million during the first half of October. That brought Dole's total haul for the campaign to more than $12 million. But Dole also continued a pattern of spending money as quickly as she raises it, showing only $447,732 in the bank as of Oct. 16. Moreover, her campaign had more than $350,000 in unpaid bills when the period ended, leaving less than $100,000 unaccounted for."
"With the new loans, Bowles, a Charlotte investment banker, has now put more than $4 million of his own money into the race."
We would pay for (or metaphorically kill for) tape recordings of the calls from both Doles to NRSC operatives, Senators, and rich people, pleading for last-minute cash.
Paul Krugman takes up for Dana Milbank, wonders when the jig will be up for a Bush Administration that "is an extremely elitist clique trying to maintain a populist façade," and suggests something that the political press corps really should be telling voters more about — there might be unified control of government soon, and that will have huge implications for real people. LINK
Vice President Cheney praised Florida's homeland security preparations in Tampa yesterday. LINK
Mr. Grove reports in the Washington Post that "bidding on [Karen] Hughes's proposed book — timed, conveniently enough, for spring 2004 publication — topped $1 million during the opening day of the auction and was expected to go well above that during today's bidding, orchestrated by Hughes attorney Robert Barnett."
LINK
*Even Ralph Z. has (they think) turned against them.
—10:30 am, Senate meets for pro forma session
—10:30 am, Sen. Barbara Boxer delivers eulogy for Sen. Paul Wellstone on Senate floor
— 11:00 am, President Bush addresses welcome rally, Alamogordo, NM
—11:00 am, House meets for pro forma session
— 2:45 pm, Second Lady Lynne Cheney addresses seniors at an event with Republican candidates, Sioux Falls, SD
— 2:55 pm, President Bush addresses welcome rally, Denver, CO
—7:00 pm, President Bush arrives back at the White House
— Oct. 30: SpeakUp! Youth Forum with New York gubernatorial candidates
— Oct. 30: Winning Margins PAC holds fundraiser for former Sen. Frank Lautenberg
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma — Oct. 31: Estimate of third quarter GDP is released — Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due — Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday — Nov. 5: Election Day — Nov. 5: President and Laura Bush's silver wedding anniversary. — Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure and soft money rules go into effect
— Nov. 6: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego — Nov. 14-16: Coalition for Essential Schools Fall Forum; Gov. Howard Dean (D) speaks
— Nov. 17: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Elizabeth Dole campaign e-spam lawsuit trial date
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Nov. 29: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit
— Nov. 30: Special election to replace Rep. Patsy Mink (D), Hawaii-02
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: DGA winter holiday event, DC
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Gov. Gray Davis's birthday — Jan, 1 2003: New federal individual contribution limits take effect (tentative) — Jan 18, 2003: Linn County, Iowa Third Annual sustaining banquet with guests to be announced.
— Jan. 22: National March for Life, Washington, DC
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday — Jan 30-Feb. 1, 2003: Conservative Political Action Conference, Crystal City, Virginia
— Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday — Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— May 27, 2003: Jury selection begins in U.S. vs. Moussaoui
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— June 30, 2003: tentative start date for Mossaoui trial
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug. 19: Tipper Gore's birthday
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