Print This Page Email This Page See Most Sent

Note Archives, updated weekly.

E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints.

So says The Note's Ouija board.

"With four weeks to the election Nov. 5, a USA TODAY /CNN/Gallup Poll shows growing voter unease with the economy and increased skepticism about invading Iraq," USA Today 's Benedetto summarizes. "There is little in the poll to indicate that Democrats or Republicans have been able to use either issue to build momentum. But if the trends continue, they could benefit Democrats." LINK

As we said here yesterday and as Charlie Cook writes more neatly in his CongressDaily AM column today, Democrats "have sat back and waited for economic woes and statistics to beat Republicans and have yet to articulate even an anemic message on the issue … Economic concerns alone won't sink Republicans in this election, but doubts about the administration's economic policies can."

Every election year, both parties plan a fall legislative strategy designed to create a favorable national environment in which their candidates can run.

In the New York Times story about Republicans in the House moving their investor package (most remarkable for the degree to which Dick Stevenson's sources are open about their political motivations), the inability of the Democrats in the Senate to get some agenda-setting votes on the table gets discussed:

"Senator Tom Daschle … had intended to focus on the economy and corporate malfeasance this fall by bringing up a different bill offering more protection to participants in 401(k) plans. But Mr. Daschle has been unable to do so as the Senate debates legislation creating a homeland security department and a resolution authorizing President Bush to use force against Iraq." LINK

The president is taking steps to shore up the economy in at least one big area of potential peril, the West Coast dock lockout, but his actions have some potential to galvanize labor.

In any off-presidential year election, in this age of declining party identification and interest in politics, consultants search largely in vain for issues that will get people worked up enough to actually go vote.

The reason why the war is such a potent issue is because it fires up emotions strongly within the GOP base, and even amongst independents and some Democrats.

USA Today 's Kiely leads with Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, whose son Brooks serves in the 101st Airborne Division, and with Gulf War vets turned GOP Reps. Mark Kirk and Steve Buyer, in a look at how everyone on the Hill is crosswise on Iraq because of genuine concerns and flarings of conscience over sending America's young people off to war. LINK

Emotional issues like that are hard to come by these days. So when one arises that favors one party over the other, it has the potential to become a big deal.

And no matter how overwhelmingly bipartisan the congressional votes on Iraq end up being, no one would argue that the "issue" helps Democrats more than Republicans.

It's unlikely that the dock lockout will mobilize the Democratic party base on a national scale, but it's not utterly impossible that it could give labor a rallying cry to put Democrats in control of Congress.

The lockout explodes this morning as a political issue, leading the Wall Street Journal : "The move toward intervention cast President Bush solidly with his Republican base: business groups that are often at odds with the country's big unions. And in this case, the president is taking on a union that is widely regarded as one of the best organized and best paid in the country. West Coast longshoremen can earn more than $100,000, with overtime, plus generous retirement and health plans to go along with it."

"Still, White House officials are not anxious to stir up the Democratic Party's labor base just four weeks before the critical midterm elections. Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy and union leaders have called on the White House to stay out of the dispute, but California lawmakers — Democratic and Republican, alike — are pressing Mr. Bush to use his power to end it, if only temporarily."

As the administration juggles all those pre-election, non-war balls in the air, we wonder if they care about quotes such as this "'If every employer thinks the federal government will step in, why should the employers even negotiate?' Richard L. Trumka, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s secretary-treasurer, said yesterday. 'The administration's move today is nothing short of an attack on American workers.'" LINK

The Wall Street Journal ed board has, natch, chosen up sides: "Union supporters are already warning that Mr. Bush could face a labor backlash at the polls in November, but we wonder how many hardhats are quietly happy over the Taft-Hartley news … "

"If anything, we'd say that the Bush White House has so far been too solicitous of Big Labor, going so far as to cause economic damage with steel tariffs in order to curry favor. We're happy to see Mr. Bush finally putting little things like trade and the economy back at the top of his priority list."

The Washington Post 's Booth and Allen say, "Bush's decision thrusts the White House into a politically volatile situation less than a month before the Nov. 5 midterm congressional elections, when Democrats are depending on heavy turnout and volunteer work from union members in several crucial races. As Bush's aides cast him as an honest broker, labor unions said he had sided with management." LINK

"White House officials said that they were reluctant to intervene out of concern that the move would provide a rallying point for labor unions right before the elections, but that they became even more worried about the potential economic impact of the lockout."

"Labor criticism aside, the president's move to force the ports' reopening played to bipartisan praise," says the Los Angeles Times . LINK

President Bush today will do some fundraising and fundraiser-thanking today in Tennessee and DC. The AP's Lindlaw reports, "Bush was to speak at a $1,000-a-ticket luncheon for Hilleary, a four-term U.S. representative who received similar help from former President George H.W. Bush at a fund-raiser Sept. 18 in Memphis. Some 750 tickets were sold for Tuesday." LINK

"Bush last visited the state Sept. 17 for Senate candidate Lamar Alexander … Not everyone will be happy to see Bush. The Knoxville Area Coalition for Compassion, Justice and Peace planned a demonstration to show its opposition to an invasion of Iraq."

"Tuesday evening in Washington, Bush planned to thank backers of the Republican National Committee who have given $15,000 or more this year. The media was barred from that event."

The clearest evidence one could ever see that national Democrats and policy makers have folded on the gun "safety" issue: there's nary a hint in the air of the Washington-era shootings becoming a campaign issue.

Except, of course, in the Maryland gubernatorial race, Maryland being one of the few states where gun control is still an acceptable topic of conversation even in mixed company. LINK

The economy

The Wall Street Journal columnist George Melloan gives the president a tiny slap over steel, but his main point is the ringing endorsement that "on balance, there is not much in the Bush record that can be blamed for an economic growth rate that is currently a little below the historical average."

Legislative Agenda

Some of America's leading traditional civil rights groups just might be ignoring Bill Clinton's most fundamental legislative advice (don't make the perfect the enemy of the good) in opposing the election reform compromise worked out last week. LINK

Campaign Finance

The four lead sponsors of McCain-Feingold-Shays-Meehan will hold a noon press conference today to move the ball forward in their attempt to force the FEC to write tougher regulations on soft money.

Shays and Meehan will file a lawsuit to directly challenge the regulations, and will ask a judge to overturn it and order the FEC to write new ones. McCain and Feingold will file an amicus brief because they're prohibited from joining the suit themselves.

As Roll Call reported yesterday, the Senators, however, will try to use the Congressional Review Act to force the FEC to write new regulations which "substantively differ" from the old ones.

The court fight over Vermont's campaign spending limits continues. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Unless a 2004 wannabe is trying to sew up the support of Norman Siegel and Bob Barr, pushing hard on the "Bush/Ashcroft are anti-civil liberties" argument doesn't seem like the smartest thing in the world.

Which means that Al Gore and John Edwards, who both have been banging away on that issue, just might be taking their stand out of principle.

And their backers think, for whatever reason, that this is an important thematic: several Edwards folks correctly pointed out to us that the suggestion in yesterday's Note that the Senator is now merely echoing Gore on the issue wasn't quite right.

Among leading Democrats, Edwards was among the very first people to challenge the administration's position on enemy combatants, taking his criticism directly to Ashcroft at a Judiciary Committee hearing in July.

And Edwards followed up as recently as yesterday in his Iraq speech at CSIS; in fact, an observer might fairly have concluded that Edwards was most enthusiastic in delivering that particular part of the speech.

The topic also gave him a chance to make the seeming suggestion that the best way to handle Ashcroft is to get him out of office (wink wink).

In Time this week, Karen Tumulty describes Bill Clinton as a behind-the-scenes "kingmaker" in Democratic politics, but if his hands are in as many projects as have been alleged, he's more of a workhorse and consigliere. LINK

The most notable nugget: "Before his speech at this summer's Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) meeting in New York City, John Edwards consulted Clinton, who sees much of himself in the North Carolina Senator. Insiders say Edwards' calls get returned faster than those of any other 2004 wannabe."

Glen Johnson's Sunday Boston Globe Iowa update is so on target that we're mentioning it two days late. "There is a deep respect for Gephardt, especially in the influential labor community, which could make him the prohibitive favorite should he run. Aides said he will almost certainly be a candidate." LINK

"Among Kerry's backers, there is little concern about his campaign pace or the early perceptions of either Edwards or Dean."

"'Iowans are not easily impressed with some money and some computers,' state Representative Jack Hatch of Des Moines said.'"

"Both Hatch and Harry Bookey, a Des Moines real estate developer, wrote a campaign memorandum suggesting that Kerry campaign hard in Iowa, but focus on a national race."

"Often Democratic candidates are criticized for swinging to the left side of the political spectrum to win liberal votes in the nominating process, only to hurt themselves nationally — especially in the more conservative South — during the general-election campaign."

"'We've told him, "Don't come into Iowa and give us what we want to hear, because that might not help back East or down South," Hatch said. 'We appreciate the attention, but run a national campaign."'

Al Gore might help Democratic Rep. Jim Maloney of Connecticut raise money on October 19. LINK

Senator Joe Lieberman versus Arthur Levitt makes "Rush and Molloy." LINK

Vermont Gov. Howard Dean will be the guest speaker today at the St. Louis University School of Law, then will head to Omaha to campaign for a state legislative candidate before traveling to Iowa for Wednesday and Thursday.

Courtesy of John Broder's New York Times account of yesterday's California gubernatorial debate matinee, here's a non-responsive response for the time capsule from a guy — Gov. Gray Davis — who apparently doesn't want to close any presidential doors: "At another point, Mr. Davis was asked whether he would stop raising money after the election and promise to serve out his full four-year term. Politicians have speculated that Mr. Davis will seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, although the talk cooled significantly after the energy crisis in 2000 and 2001. His answers were vague." LINK

"'I have no need to raise money on the order that I've raised for re-election,' Mr. Davis said. 'I have no intention of running for another office. We've a lot of challenges in California. I intend to stay here and do my job.'"

"Pressed harder, he said he was not making a firm commitment to serve out his term. 'But,' he added, 'I have no plans to do anything else.'"

An Iowa wag reports that former Senator Bill Bradley will headline a bar-b-que for House candidate John Norris in Des Moines (or, perhaps, in De Soto) on October 19.

We wonder if Senator Bradley knows or cares about what we see as the seismic significance of this fact.

Al Sharpton doesn't want Rudy Giuliani to win a Nobel Peace Prize. LINK

Politics

The New York Times ' Krugman makes his case that some Republicans are engaged in a quiet, pre-election retreat on corporate reform. LINK

Today at 11:00 am, Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe will outline the committee's plans to "promote and protect the right to vote for the midterm elections."

One aspect of that project will be Vote 411, a data base into which voters can call to report allegations of voter fraud or intimidation, with call monitors directing those voters to the appropriate authorities in their states.

Stu Rothenberg breaks Dr./Senator Bill Frist's heart with his analysis of the turn of events in New Jersey in the Wall Street Journal : ""It makes the single-most-likely outcome no change in the Senate … "

Jason Riley of the Wall Street Journal 's editorial page profiles Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, who is one of the few Republicans who is on the stump with a full-throated defense of Bush-style personal savings accounts.

Riley doesn't like Toomey's steel position (Toomey is being challenged by a Democratic steelworker), but he celebrates his willingness to not back down in the face of Democrat attacks on the issue.

This would be considered a Jack Oliver must-read, courtesy of eight paragraphs on A6 of the The Wall Street Journal , of which we reproduce the first two here: "Federal and state law-enforcement authorities in Mississippi are investigating contributions to state judicial campaigns by plaintiffs' lawyers, including Richard Scruggs, a Pascagoula, Miss., attorney who made hundreds of millions of dollars suing the tobacco industry."

"The probe, which is at an early stage, appears to be examining whether money was illegally funneled to judges with the aim of influencing the outcome of particular cases, people familiar with the situation said. Mississippi is a key battleground in judicial elections because business groups consider the state's courts to be especially hostile."

Although we object to his misuse of the term "push poll," and we are courting danger by even suggesting the following point, we do think that Dick Morris raises some interesting (and, maybe, accurate) points in questioning the wording of yesterday's New York Times /CBS News poll. LINK

Read it for yourself and see if you agree.

Dear Dick: you might want to read our advocacy call glossary. LINK

Deborah Orin has four (four!) bylines in the New York Post today. Too many links to include!

Johns Hopkins researcher and editor of the university's Journal of American Politics Adam Segal today will release the latest data on political ad spending on Spanish-language TV: in sum, $6 million year to date, and over $1 million in last week alone.

In Florida, Segal says, Gov. Jeb Bush is spending $150,000 a week whereas Democratic opponent Bill McBride has not aired any ads (yet, at least) on Spanish-language TV. And in New York, Segal says, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Carl McCall has zoomed past Gov. George Pataki (R) on Spanish-language TV spending.

New Jersey

A Star-Ledger/Eagleton poll of what it calls "potential" voters gives former Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) a six-point lead over challenger Doug Forrester (R), largely mirroring the Quinnipiac Poll that was released yesterday. The smaller sample (so the release says) of "likely" voters shows a 44-44 tie.

Poll director Cliff Sukin said the findings show "some evidence" of a backlash against the imbroglionic happenings.

The Forrester spin appears to be that the wealth of undecided voters, combined with lingering anger over the candidate switch, provides sufficient foundation on which to build a victory.

We still want to see what happens when Lautenberg goes up with paid media.

The US Supreme Court's rejection of the case is big news in New Jersey. LINK

State GOPers said yesterday they had planned to proceed with their suit in federal court, asking a judge in Trenton yesterday to stay the state Supreme Court's ruling on the grounds that at least two voters were already disenfranchised by the ballot reprinting. But the judge late yesterday dismissed the case. LINK

Also yesterday, the Republican Party asked the Federal Election Commission to prevent Senator Bob Torricelli from lending Lautenberg any money through the Democratic Senate campaign committee, and asked them to look into the money that Torricelli paid to the state of New Jersey to reprint the ballots; the GOP argues that it constituted an unfair campaign donation.

A Democratic spokeswoman called the FEC request "humorous at best."

California

The Los Angeles Times ' Z. Barabak writes up yesterday's wide-ranging gubernatorial debate. "Republican [Bill] Simon, seizing on his first face-to-face meeting with the incumbent, offered a sweeping indictment of the governor's nearly four years in office … Democrat [Gray] Davis, in turn, offered a virtual point-by-point dissection of Simon's positions on issues such as abortion and gun control, asserting that his GOP rival is out of step with the values of mainstream California." LINK

"There were no major gaffes and no startling revelations during the hourlong session, suggesting nothing that would immediately change the dynamic of the race with 28 days to go."

"Their sharpest exchange occurred roughly midway through the debate, when each candidate was given the opportunity to directly question his rival." Simon tried to hammer Davis about his fundraising practices; Davis responded by trying to hit Simon on corporate responsibility and Simon's family firm's problematic financial dealings.

The California Organization of Police and Sheriffs, which backed Davis four years ago but is supporting Simon now, "charged Monday that it gave a $10,000 donation to Gov. Gray Davis in his Capitol office four years ago, while he was lieutenant governor … It's an allegation that, if true, would amount to a misdemeanor for both Davis and the contributor." LINK

The Davis campaign says the hand-off took place at a campaign office.

The Times ' Finnegan sums up the candidates' seeming strategies for the last few weeks of the campaign: "For Simon, the goal is to paint the Democratic incumbent as an unethical career politician whose bungling of the energy and fiscal crises has damaged California's economy. For Davis, the aim is to cast Simon as a dishonest businessman whose conservative stands on guns, abortion and other issues would take California 'backward and to the right.'" LINK

Finnegan's kicker: "Because Monday's debate could represent the last opportunity for Simon to speak to a statewide television audience for free, money becomes increasingly important from this point on. As a result, the key question is whether the GOP candidate will lend his campaign millions more to boost his visibility on television."

We'd argue that any positive publicity for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo works against Davis, so even though Camejo didn't get to participate in the debate, his loud and widely covered protests thereupon were effective.

One of the most fun political junkies have is learning who is playing the role of the "opponent" in debate prep.

From sources familiar with the Davis campaign: The Note has learned that former Gore press secretary and Democratic consultant Chris Lehane played the Bill Simon role in the Gray Davis debate preparation that took place over the weekend.

According to insiders, during several lengthy preparation sessions, Lehane adopted a "pit-bull approach" in the mock debates.

When asked to comment, Lehane only would say for attribution, "I did my best to get into the Simon character by visiting a gun show, seeking an accountants advice on off-shore tax havens and limiting my speech to monosyllabic words. I wasn't perfect, but … "

Iowa

The Washington Post 's Balz does Tape-gate. "Whether [Republican Senate nominee Greg] Ganske can pump life back into the controversy is the challenge he and his campaign now face. His goal is to turn the whole episode into a broader critique of Harkin's character." LINK

The federal and state investigations into the incident ended yesterday. LINK

Tablemate David Yepsen has details. "The past two days have been good ones for Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. On Sunday, Harkin bested Congressman Greg Ganske in their first televised debate. And law-enforcement types said Monday no crime was committed when a former Harkin aide taped a Ganske campaign meeting." LINK

"Republicans will grumble that Polk County Attorney John Sarcone, a big south-side Des Moines Democrat, is helping Harkin sweep the matter under the rug. Politically, Sarcone would have been better off to present the facts to a grand jury for a decision. He often does that with controversial or politically sensitive cases. But that would have kept the whole thing alive, and Harkin doesn't need that. Besides, Sarcone is running unopposed for re-election and can afford to give the Democratic senator a break here."

Maybe this article is written tongue-in-cheek, but the Des Moines Register takes time to wonder why national media folks are paying attention to the 2nd district race between Rep. Jim Leach (R) and Dr. Julie Thomas (D). LINK

Florida

The Miami Herald wonders why Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride's law firm, Holland and Knight, refused in 1999 to take the up a pro-gay adoption case; the decision was ultimately McBride's and he supports the practice. The article reads more like an American Lawyer take-out on corporate culture than it does one about the politics of this race. LINK

The Herald lays out McBride's Choice: whether to avoid offending partners in the law firm (and avoid the risk of it breaking up), or take a stand on principle.

At a campaign stop yesterday, activists urged McBride to support embattled Broward elections supervisor Miriam Oliphant. LINK

Miami-Dade County may hire election monitors for November 5. LINK

Gov. Jeb Bush and McBride "agree" that medical malpractice rates are high. But they differ on solutions. This Orlando Sentinel article tries to inject trial lawyer politics into the Florida gubernatorial race. LINK

Judging by today's news coverage, Governor Bush's "devious" remarks appear to slipped way down the page.

Kansas

The Boston Globe 's Shribman notes that even "the ascendancy of George W. Bush, the war on terrorism, the deepening of economic distress, and the prospect of a new war in the Persian Gulf" cannot unify the Kansas GOP, whose persisting internal split between conservatives and more mainstream Republicans may well cost them the governorship this fall. LINK

A doctor contributed $1,000 to Rep. Dennis Moore (D), but now he wants his money back because Moore voted against a House bill that would have limited both attorney's fees and doctor's malpractice insurance costs. LINK

New Hampshire

Commerce Secretary Don Evans travels to Manchester today. LINK

South Carolina

"Academy Award winner Robert Redford … is scheduled to appear Saturday at $1,000-per-person fund-raisers for [Democratic Senate nominee Alex] Sanders in Columbia and Charleston." And, in what seems like a no-brainer to us, GOP candidate Lindsey "Graham's campaign said the Redford visit shows Sanders' political leanings." LINK

North Carolina

"The N.C. Association of Educators is likely to sit out the U.S. Senate race, in what would be a setback to the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Erskine Bowles … In the Democratic primary, the NCAE strongly backed state Rep. Dan Blue of Raleigh, who finished second." LINK

Hawaii

The state Supreme Court may allow Democrats to replace the late Rep. Patsy Mink on the ballot with less than a month to go before the election. Gov. Ben Cayetano (D) says that two special elections on top of the November 5 balloting was just too much money. LINK

Georgia

Some local African-American groups protested outside the Governor's Mansion this past weekend as Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes met with folks from AIPAC, while some African-Americans have left the Democratic party to form the Georgia Caucus of Independents. LINK

Barnes has $7.5 million to spend between now and November 5. LINK

Connecticut

The Hartford Courant calls last night's gubernatorial debate between Gov. John Rowland (R) and challenger Bill Curry (D) "sometimes cordial, but more often feisty." LINK

Massachusetts

Rudy Giuliani will campaign for GOP gubernatorial nominee Mitt Romney in Boston's North End today. LINK

Buried in a Boston Globe story on the latest economic dispute between the two gubernatorial nominees is this: "At the news conference in Boston's South End yesterday, [Democrat Shannon] O'Brien received the endorsement of state Senator Dianne Wilkerson. Two weeks ago, Wilkerson — a Roxbury Democrat and the only black state senator — wrote an op-ed piece in the Globe warning that minorities might abandon O'Brien this year because she hasn't focused on issues of importance to them." LINK

"Wilkerson said her concerns were adequately addressed by O'Brien and a host of other prominent Democrats who spoke with her about the op-ed piece, including Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, state party chairman Philip W. Johnston, and US senators Edward M. Kennedy and John F. Kerry."

New York

Democratic donors of national sophistication debate amongst themselves if the Carl McCall campaign is "very supercharged" in its generation of excitement, or not. LINK

Texas

The New York Times ' McGeehan has the awesome good sense to quote Dicky Flatts on the record in writing about Senator Phil Gramm's new job. LINK

"Spending in the Texas governor's race has reached a record $73.8 million, thanks largely to Democratic millionaire Tony Sanchez's own checkbook, according to campaign finance reports released Monday," the Houston Chronicle reports. LINK

Senate candidate Ron Kirk (D) is on the air with another ad stressing his fidelity to all things Bush. LINK

Minnesota

Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone has cracked 50 percent of the vote, though just barely, both times he has run for Senate, a New York Times correction makes plain. LINK

Wellstone picked up the endorsement of the VFW's national PAC yesterday. LINK

Illinois

"In the first broadcast debate of the fall campaign for governor, Democrat Rod Blagojevich portrayed himself as an ethical messenger for political change while Republican Jim Ryan vowed to satisfy an angry electorate looking for character in its leadership," the Chicago Tribune reports. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Dana Milbank looks at the seemingly arcane fights over the civil service employee issue and over the energy task force records and notes, "the disputes could change the way government has functioned for decades." LINK

On the civil service issue, "says the Brookings Institution's Paul Light, who has advised Bush on the federal workforce: 'It would be more honest to say this is the leading edge of the most significant change in civil service law since the end of World War II. Nobody's saying it' … Likewise, the fight over the energy task force documents is ostensibly testing the authority of the General Accounting Office to demand certain documents from the vice president."