October 7, 2008
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The Note
War Certainly Ain't Beanbag
Things Are Tough All Over

By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner
& Marc Ambinder

ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, September 20
47 Days Until The Election....

A political operative with one of the senior-most jobs in party politics e-mailed us this morning with some stuff about President Bush's Iraq resolution.



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When we responded/fended it off by saying we're focused only on the midterm elections, preferring to leave the war to those more knowledgeable, our source actually wrote back: "No one cares about the midterms."

While we consider this overstatement, it is the case that our search for a political lead today came up largely empty, confronted as we were, at every turn of the page and click of the remote and mouse, by a Washington press corps justifiably focused on a possible war.

Which, we think, could serve as the metaphor for what might happen in the minds of voters over the next few weeks as war news remains front-and-center.

Some news organizations are now looking beyond the congressional resolution as pretty much a done deal to when such a war might actually begin, but others (fortunately, for The Note) are lingering on potential political complexities and repercussions of the vote, and one reporter does an excellent job of (getting some Democratic message meisters worked up by) laying out how Bush "won" on Congress and Iraq.

And we actually manage to back into some Big Casino talk, further down.

USA Today 's Keen and Kiely write, "Lawmakers favor a quick vote on the resolution, but the open-ended time frame in the president's draft is expected to trigger intense debate." LINK

"Daschle said after a closed-door meeting of Senate Democrats last night that they want the sentence to clarify that the authorization is for action against Iraq only, and to ensure that Iran and other nations would not be potential targets as well," the Washington Post 's DeYoung and VandeHei report. LINK

Dana Milbank's Washington Post lead: "A few short weeks ago, it appeared the administration was in disarray on Iraq, and the opposition at home and overseas to attacking Iraq was formidable. Now, bewildered opponents are studying how the White House apparently turned the situation on its head both in Congress and the United Nations." LINK

"The Bush White House's maneuver on Iraq was nothing new. It followed a pattern of hard-nosed politics similar to Bush's victories in winning support for a massive tax cut, trade promotion authority, withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and even, to some extent, success in the Florida election recount."

Milbank then goes on to describe what we in the ABCNEWS Political Unit cast as Bush's seeming ability to render something he wants as inevitable, like his Florida steamroll toward claiming the presidency: "he hammers away at the issue, using the bully pulpit with numbing repetition and marshaling all arguments to make his case. When one rationale doesn't sell, he drops it and adopts a new one."

"Democrats point out that Bush has made concessions to them by agreeing to work with Congress and the United Nations."

"Accidental or not, the hallmark of Bush's style is an ability to shift justifications for a set policy."

(Two things we still think are being undercovered: the leak to the Washington Post about the view of the White House counsel's office that the president didn't need any more congressional resolutions to go to war; and, more importantly, the debates going on privately within the House and Senate caucuses on what to do about the resolution, vis a vis the election.)

Even with — or maybe, because of — the rapid delivery of the president's resolution language, what Congress will focus on during whatever pre-election time it spends in DC remains unknown.

The bookish Jackie Calmes uses the good offices of the Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire to palm-card the current state of play: "End products could be limited to Iraq war resolution and a stopgap extension of current government spending … "

"Both parties say a bankruptcy bill is dead, though creditors' lobbyists still push for a deal; so are bills on welfare, a Medicare drug benefit and patients' rights. Health-care providers could get bigger Medicare repayments. Possible: energy, pension and election bills. Hung up: Terrorism insurance."

In case you weren't paying attention, for all the reasons they have done it before (and Note readers can check back issues if you have forgotten what those reasons are), the GOP apparatus is going full throttle attacking Tom Daschle as obstructionist, liberal, ambitious, and crafty.

Come to think of it, we aren't sure his staff would disagree with any of those.

In any case, from Larry Lindsey at the Chamber of Commerce yesterday, to Hill leaders on both sides of the aisle (we have NEVER seen House members of either party spend so much time even acknowledging that the Senate even exists), to a torrent of GOP press releases — Daschle remains Public Enemy Numero Uno.

Who knows what effects these attacks are having; Daschle's home state polling numbers are said to be holding just fine.

On the other hand, the Washington Post 's Dionne asserts, "Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's broad attack Wednesday on the administration's economic record might have been big news under other circumstances. It became a sideshow." LINK

While all sophisticated political operations have broad messages for the center and simultaneous, much more partisan messages for the base, the Rove/Mehlman/Oliver operation are first in their class at this, and while much of their September/October 30,000-feet message will be about national unity and the war and the importance of supporting the president, with regularity and increasing frequency in order to energize Republican base voters to go vote, every possible means of message delivery will be coursing with red-meat GOP rhetoric.

For instance, check out some of the verbiage in this Jack Oliver e-mail to the party's big list, which right off the bat hits that hottest of Republican hot buttons: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton allegedly says "that she doesn't 'see any alternative' but to raise taxes by repealing or postponing President Bush's tax cuts for working families."

So on the one hand, Oliver & Company are continuing to float the idea of additional tax cuts to the base, while senior Administration and Hill aides tell reporters on background that additional tax cuts aren't happening.

Per the New York Times ' Stevenson: "Republican leaders in the House have decided against pushing for a new round of tax cuts to help investors, effectively killing for this year a proposal floated last month by President Bush, Congressional aides said today." LNIK

However, despite that lead, and Bill Thomas' saying it can't actually get done this year, and the fact that the "White House and some Republicans in Congress have also been concerned that pushing for any tax cut would leave their party exposed to criticism from Democrats of further increasing the federal budget deficit and favoring wealthy investors over lower-income people": "Representative Tom DeLay of Texas … is continuing to press for consideration of a smaller package of tax cuts than the ones the White House had been studying."

"Mr. DeLay has been backing a proposal that would include a small increase in the deductibility of capital losses and allow retiring workers to delay cashing in their 401(k)'s if the market is depressed when they leave the work force. His plan also includes a provision to expand the government's ability to seek the return of ill-gotten gains from corporate executives and return them to shareholders."

Politics of Iraq

The Los Angeles Times ' Hook says, "A top Democratic strategist estimated that in the House, there are a couple of dozen hard-core Democratic opponents of going to war, a somewhat larger group ready to support Bush, and an even bigger faction on the fence." LINK

"A group of 19 House Democrats yesterday pledged to build a congressional coalition to oppose a U.S. military attack on Iraq," says the Washington Times . LNIK

"Rep. Constance A. Morella, the Maryland Republican who is in a tight congressional race, said in an interview yesterday that while she had not seen any proposed language yet, she would be inclined to oppose 'a unilateral, pre-emptive strike to go to war' with Iraq. 'To go to war before the United Nations has acted? Again, I'm inclined against it,' she said."

Democrats who (inexplicably) are from the Clinton/Gore school of the world, in which they actually CARE what the New York Times ed board thinks, might be given second thoughts by today's lead editorial suggesting Democrats need to do the right thing, rather than the political thing, in dealing with the president's war request. LINK

The Economy

The The Wall Street Journal 's economics editors still seem pretty gloomy: leading the paper is a look at how the slumping economies of the other industrialized giants aren't doing much of anything to revive US fortunes, and one hard-copy page away on A2 is this depression (we mean, of course, "depressing") lead, hitting one of the pillars of Uncle Sam & Co.: "New-home building fell for the third straight month for August, suggesting the torrid real-estate market may be taking a breather."

The Washington Post editorial page says, "The real economic questions raised by the administration's foreign policy concern the longer term, not the one-time shock to oil prices or the budget." LINK

"The administration has … been right to play down the economic side of the Iraq decision. But it has failed to face up to the economic consequences of its longer-term struggle against terrorism. The burden of a bigger defense budget, an ambitious homeland security agenda and expanded commitments in areas such as intelligence and foreign aid imposes a clear strain on the budget; unlike the one-time cost of fighting an Iraq war, it represents new expenses that stretch out indefinitely. The administration ought to accept that this burden requires rethinking its promised but not yet implemented tax cuts. Instead it pretends that the nation can afford to fight terrorism and cut taxes at the same time; it is even proposing a new wave of cuts on top of the huge package it secured from Congress last year."

Fancy Paul Krugman (who Bushies ad hominem attack with the "Enron" tag when, it appears, they can't rebut him on the merits) leaps off of this today — "The economic similarity between our current difficulties and the slump under the first George Bush is stronger than most people realize … " — to argue that the economy is still really bad, and the administration has no obvious plans to deal with it. LINK

"Where there is no vision, the people perish," is one Biblical line favored by each of our last two presidents, but Krugman says that 43 is more like 41 than 42 in this regard.

If everyone were a little less busy with the war and the election, we'd love to ask a SAO (as Mike Allen can tell you, that's "senior Administration official") to annotate the whole column for accuracy.

Instead, we'll just show you the last, deeply opinionated, graph: "Should we be worried about the administration's lack of the vision thing when it comes to economics? Yes, we should. The excesses of the 1990's dwarfed those of the 1980's, and the economic risks are correspondingly larger. Suppose that, as seems increasingly plausible, the deteriorating job situation finally undermines the dogged optimism of America's consumers. In that case we'll need some decisive action — action determined by what the economy needs, not by what Karl Rove thinks will play in the polls. How much chance is there that we'll get it?"

And New York's junior Senator is pushing for an extension of unemployment benefits. LINK

Stephen Moore and Stephen Slivinski rate America's governors in terms of their tax and spend proclivities (they like less of both), and find Governors Owens, Bush, and Barnes to be the bestest.

Legislative Agenda

Conservative Democratic Senator Zell Miller is bucking a lot of his party, again. "Democrats risk 'slitting our own throat' politically if they oppose President Bush's proposal for a Homeland Security Department," Miller "told his colleagues yesterday."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

"Senator Joseph I. Lieberman yesterday denied that his relations with the Congressional Black Caucus have gone sour because he is Jewish," the Washington Times says. LINK

"Participants at the CBC conference, according to that report, talked of getting even with Jewish Democrats in the wake of the primary-election defeats of Georgia Rep. Cynthia A. McKinney and Alabama Rep. Earl F. Hilliard, whose outspoken support for the Palestinian side in the Middle East conflict had angered Jewish interest groups."

"The two Democratic House members were defeated by black challengers who received support from Jewish donors, Fox noted. 'Yes, people at the CBC conference were talking retaliation, saying Joe Lieberman is dead in the water,' said conference participant Ron Walters, director of the African American Institute at the University of Maryland."

Who knew that the CAFE talks were still going on? Not us.

Having learned that in the New York Times , we were NOT surprised to find one Senator J. F. Kerry right at the center of things. LINK

Please don't take this the wrong way, any of you, but as handsome as Senator John Edwards is, he seems somehow even more handsome when the Today show puts him in a two-box next to Senator Grassley.

We make this seemingly superficial observation because Edwards didn't seem to make any news on the topic of Iraq, with the possible exception of his nearly borderline Bush-like pronunciation of the word "nucular."

Edwards heads off later today for his second retreat with would-be presidential campaign advisers and key supporters, in Pinehurst, NC.

Which of those hard-charging Tar Heel papers are chasing him there, we wonder?

Playing tough at home, per the Charlotte Observer: "The air war [in the North Carolina Senate race], in which the campaigns and their allies are spending more than $1 million this week, got a financial infusion Thursday from U.S. Senator John Edwards, an N.C. Democrat, who pledged $200,000 for pro-Bowles commercials." LINK

Campaign Finance

Per the Wall Street Journal : Senator John "McCain blasts Daschle for nixing a campaign-finance vote."

"GOP Senator McCain and Democratic Senator Feingold, co-sponsors of a new campaign-finance law, want Congress to repeal recent Federal Election Commission rules that they contend will gut the law's curbs on unlimited 'soft money' in federal races. But Daschle opposes a vote, saying repeal would 'leave a void that would require yet new legislation.'"

"Daschle's decision and the bipartisan FEC action are 'an indication how addicted the political establishment is to soft money and how corrupt this place has become,' McCain says."

Politics

This week on "This Week" (as in this Sunday), George Stephanopoulos debuts what will be a fall staple of the show: a political panel featuring Republican strategist Bill McInturff, Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, and ABCNEWS Political Director Mark Halperin.

Both Bills have beards; Halperin doesn't.

The AP's Lester looks at the boom in independent voters. LINK

For some reasons we've already read about, and one or two that we maybe haven't, Republican strategist David Winston writes in a Washington Times op-ed that this election year "won't be like other election years because the political environment in which this election is taking place is like none we have ever seen before." http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20020920-82603632.htm

Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post looks at the raging (and now bordering on eye-glazing) battle to have TV ads pulled, mostly in House races. LINK

Christine Todd Whitman did her "women are the future of politics" bit at Iowa State University yesterday. LINK

Former President Bill Clinton will head to Africa this weekend for his Foundation on AIDS treatment and prevention, economic development, reconciliation and democratization.

He will travel to Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, Mozambique and South Africa, where he will meet with the heads of state; he will also visit an AIDS treatment center in Rwanda and an AIDS prevention group in Mozambique; and he will take part in an AIDS-related news conference with Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

You used to be able to hear Mindy Tucker and Jennifer Palmieri only on ABCNEWS Radio's "Here's the Point."

But if, around 4:00 p.m. today, no Boston priest gets perp walked, no UN dignitary holds a press conference, and no child murderer case jury returns its verdict, you should be able to see those two savvy ladies on "Inside Politics."

California

"A day after ethics groups questioned the propriety of his $9 million in loans to his gubernatorial campaign, Republican Bill Simon Jr. pledged Thursday to donate any repayments to charity," the Los Angeles Times says. LINK

We wonder whether stories like this will ever reach race-ending critical mass:

"One day after he signed a $9.95 billion bond measure to construct the state's first high speed rail line, Gov. Gray Davis has scheduled an exclusive fund-raiser with executives who 'will build, operate and maintain the system,' according to e-mails obtained by The [San Francisco] Chronicle." LINK

"The event today is at the Santa Clara home of Rod Diridon — Davis' appointee to chair the California High Speed Rail Authority, a board charged with planning construction of what is expected to one day be a $25 billion, 700-mile network of high speed rail lines stretching from Sacramento to San Diego."

Trust us (you doom-saying Republicans), this race isn't over. Unless, of course, Simon's opening his own checkbook brings contributions to a halt (which is what all smart self-funders dread).

New York

If a recount makes it ever-so-possible that Golisano might slip off the ballot, New York politicos are abuzz over the new Pataki negative ads going after Carl McCall on taxes and out-of-state investments. LINK

The Daily News heralds this tabby-style with "It's showtime." LINK

Even as he covers this bad-cop stuff in the New York Times , kudos to Randy Archibold for realizing that not all candidates with tons of cash and big leads go negative because they are actually worried; sometimes they do it because, with all that dough, why not try to strangle your opponent in the crib?

This is a sentence that political pundits of all stripes in every state should clip 'n' save: "Political analysts suggested that while such ads are typically broadcast by candidates trailing in a race, they also make tactical sense for front-runners seeking to keep challengers from building momentum."

On the other hand, given the demos of the state, in this case, Pataki would be nuts NOT to be worried. So we think Archibald wrote a great sentence, but in the wrong race.

Meanwhile Shaila Dewan covers the good cop, catching Pataki's daughter Emily being on message, and quoting a bevy of Democratic operatives who can't seem to see a daughter who loves and supports her father as anything but a cynical attempt to take the edge off of the negative ads. LINK

On the other other hand, Arthur Finkelstein and Kieran Mahoney would dress their clients' grandmothers up as Dolly Parton (or their grandkids as piglets) if they thought that was what it would take to win, and we mean that in an admiring way.

And what, we wondered (since we read the Times before the News today, just this once), of that stray reference to Emily Pataki granting "the first of the interviews reporters have been requesting for months?"

Turns out, the Times was being nice enough to set aside a possible jealousy situation to tout smooth Joel Siegel's Daily News interview with Ms. Emily, with "her first interview of the campaign." LINK

Joel's interview does not appear to make any news, except for on the meta-level at which Mr. Siegel makes a pretty blatant play to take over the space of the late Neal Travis: "It quickly becomes clear that anybody seeking objectivity about the governor must look elsewhere. She stays relentlessly on message — there is no rebellious streak here. 'We agree on virtually everything,' she says."

"But she is personable and poised, and flashes a Hilary Swank smile."

We STILL aren't ready to pronounce final judgment on this race, but we do wonder if some combination of the Clintons, Harold Ickes, and David Axelrod are figuring out, to paraphrase Stuart Smalley, if McCall is tough enough, and good enough, to fight back against this rough stuff.

And more of the rough stuff is coming.

As the New York Post Bob Hardt reminds us all, "McCall has yet to air a negative ad — either in his primary battle against Andrew Cuomo or in the general election." LINK

Admirable and something to tell the grandkids about, but not necessarily the way to win a race against this group of killers.

Arizona

The New York Times looks at the open gubernatorial race. LINK

New Hampshire

Courtesy of the New Hampshire Bills, the newly released WMUR/Manchester Union Leader debate schedule for New Hampshire:
--Monday, Oct. 21: U.S. House, 1st District.
--Tuesday., Oct. 22: U.S. House, 2nd District.
--Thursday, Oct. 24: Governor.
--Friday, Oct. 25: U.S. Senate.

The peripatetic Kate Whitman has joined the New Hampshire State Republican Committee as their new communications director. LINK

South Dakota

Just in case the Maddie and Dave of the Senate race here (that would be Christine and Dan) skipped their The Wall Street Journal s today … LINK

Buried in the Washington Wire: "A drought-aid deal eludes White House and Congress despite Republican farm-state lawmakers' efforts; GOP fears the issue is hurting Rep. Thune in his race against South Dakota Senator Johnson."

The New York Times liked the Thune-Veneman conference call. LINK

When former president George H. W. Bush visits Sioux Falls, it's front-page news, regardless of what he says. (Or what he raises: $50,000 for John Thune's Senate bid.) LINK

Massachusetts

Suddenly, post-primary, the gubernatorial race is a tie — Democrat Shannon O'Brien no longer trails Republican Mitt Romney, per the latest Boston Herald poll. LINK

Former Gov. Bill Weld's effort to endorse Romney for governor yesterday got a bit muddied up by press questions about Weld's patronage appointees, a system against which Romney has been campaigning. LINK

And "O'Brien dismissed Weld as an 'irrelevant' reminder of failed GOP administrations." LINK

The Boston Globe looks at how minority voters seem to have been overlooked in the gubernatorial primaries: "Many people in the long-established, middle-class neighborhoods — predominantly white — experienced this competitive, expensive election quite differently than those in neighborhoods that are black, Latino, and poor. Gubernatorial hopefuls drew on increasingly sophisticated technology to identify and target reliable voters, and showered those people with appeals for support. But in areas without a strong voting tradition, that level of intensity was hard to find." LINK

Maryland

Democrats are trying — emphasis on trying — to rally around gubernatorial pick Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who has alienated a few of them over the years. LINK

Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob Ehrlich's proposal to deal with Maryland's worsening tax revenue problem: spending cuts and legalizing slot machines, rather than raising taxes. LINK

North Carolina

The battle over whose Social Security TV ad is inaccurate continues, while Democratic Senate nominee Erskine Bowles yesterday went up with a new ad attacking Elizabeth Dole on the minimum wage. LINK

"Six Libertarian candidates in North Carolina, along with six of their party colleagues, have put together a pinup calendar of themselves in an unusual effort to raise money for their campaigns," the Washington Post notes. LINK

"Rachel Mills, 27, who is running for the state legislature, said the inspiration came from Playboy magazine, which had approached her about appearing in a 'Women of WorldCom' issue. Mills, who works at the beleaguered telecommunications giant, declined, but said her party took the idea to create its 'North Carolina Ladies of Liberty Calendar.'"

"The calendar, which costs $20, features the women in various states of undress — none are nude — along with snippets from their respective platforms and their party's philosophy."

Colorado

Beginning Sunday, a "glitterati" gulch of national politicians arrive in the state: President Bush, Majority Leader Daschle, and maybe former President Clinton. On Sunday, Daschle attends a fundraiser in Denver for Senate hopeful Tom Strickland (D). Later next week, Bush helps raise money for House candidate Bob Beauprez's bid. LINK

Sunday night, Strickland and Republican Senator Wayne Allard will debate before a statewide audience. LINK

South Carolina

South Carolina candidates, political parties and issue groups have spent more than $7 million for ads on local television stations, and that number is likely to triple between now and Election Day," according to the Alliance for Better Campaigns. LINK

Alabama

Charlton Heston plans to visit three cities in Alabama to raise money for the state Republican Party," the Washington Times reports. "Mr. Heston's visit today comes six weeks after the 78-year-old actor announced that he had been diagnosed with symptoms consistent with Alzheimer's disease." LINK

"Mr. Heston's Alabama tour will begin with a breakfast at a Mobile hotel. Tickets are $100 per person for the breakfast, sponsored by Republican candidates. At noon, he will be honored at a rally in Oxford, followed by a rally later that day in Huntsville. Both north Alabama rallies are free and open to the public, although separate private fund-raisers are planned in those cities, the Associated Press reports."

The Washington Post suggests that the Alabama governor's race may boil down to "which candidate can convince voters his opponent is sleazier." LINK

Florida

Broward County election supervisor Miriam Oliphant "relent[ed]" and will allow county officials to help her on November 5. LINK

So the county will station a worker at each polling place to open the doors, turn on the machines, close the doors, collect the votes and turn off the machines.

Would someone PLEASE write a great profile of this woman?

Secretary of State Jim Smith pronounced himself satisfied with how Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas is reworking Miami-Dade County elections. LINK

The Herald also looks at all the "heavy hitters" headed to Florida to raise money for Bill McBride. LINK

Governor Bush laid out a $2.8 billion education initiative yesterday, with much of the money slated to help build more than 12,000 classrooms. LINK

Minnesota

"U.S. House candidate John Kline's campaign said Thursday he would not participate in a public television forum today because the No New Taxes candidate, Sam Garst, will not be there," the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. "Garst, a supporter of Kline's Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Bill Luther, filed as a candidate for the 2nd District seat in July with the express intent of taking votes away from Republican Kline. Garst's name will appear on the November ballot as a No New Taxes Party member, a political organization that did not exist before Garst invented it." LINK

Missouri

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch ad-watches a Jean Carnahan spot on, uh, protecting Social Security. LINK

… .and a Jim Talent ad on, uh, protecting Social Security. LINK

New Jersey

Here's a weird and distasteful twist on a push poll: a "singy-songy effeminate … sitcom character of a gay man" is auto-calling New Jersey voters in the 12th Congressional District and informing them that Rep. Rush Holt (D) has been endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign, the Washington-based gay rights lobby behemoth.

"The group did endorse Holt, a Democrat in the House of Representatives, in his campaign against his Republican challenger, the Rev. DeForest 'Buster' Soaries. But the organization says it did not make those phone calls. And in a complaint filed with the state Attorney General's Office this week, it demanded an investigation into who did." LINK

Which reminds us to remind you: we've got a watchdogging operation of our own, and we're depending on our readers to participate. LINK

Georgia

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a smart story about how Senator Zell Miller functions as the perfect surrogate for Democrats in the state. LINK

And believe us, as much as Miller regular disrupts Democrats in DC, Republicans there and in the Peach State are gritting their teeth over this.

Pennsylvania

Last night's gubernatorial debate was strangely placid compared to the vicious ads swirling on the airwaves. LINK

Texas

After a poll yesterday put him six points behind Attorney General John Cornyn (R), Democratic nominee Ron Kirk faces a second day of newspaper questions about whether he's "sputtering." Today, the Dallas Morning News looks at Kirk's "fundraising pleas." LINK

Let's see what happens to the numbers now that both sides are on the tube. Kirk's first TV ad tries to firmly instill his moderate credentials. LINK

The Morning News story also trots out the celebrities who will appear on behalf of the two candidates soon: "Saturday, actor Charlton Heston headlines a Cornyn fund-raiser at Southfork Ranch. Over the next several weeks, former Dallas Cowboys star Roger Staubach, basketball coach Bobby Knight, former first lady Barbara Bush and President Bush are scheduled at similar events for Mr. Cornyn."

"Fighting back, Mr. Kirk has set up fund-raisers with Sens. Harry Reid of Nevada, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and John Breaux of Louisiana. The Breaux event, in Houston next month, will feature former Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen."

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

He still (apparently) hasn't found what he's looking for: calendar: Treasury Secretary O'Neill is on "Oprah" today with Bono.

The Washington Post 's Grove previews it: "On the show [O'Neill] dodges and weaves in response to Oprah Winfrey's repeated attempts to nail him down on committing billions in tax dollars to the United Nations' effort to stop the spread of AIDS in Africa. On the other hand, O'Neill apologizes, 'I should have brought my sunglasses.'" LINK

Brent Scowcroft patently survives a Gerth/Van Natta full rectal examination of his business dealings and governmental ties. LINK

The Washington Post and New York Times continue to be the environmental watchdogs of this Administration, and the Post 's Eric Pianin has not one but two stories today involving greenies' suspicions that the administration is trying to weaken environmental protection regulations. LINK and LINK

The Agenda

—9:45 am, White House off-camera morning gaggle
— 10:00 am, Senate meets to debate appropriations and homeland security
— 10:50 am, President Bush meets with the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers, Oval Office
— 11:15 am, Senate Majority Leader Daschle briefs
— 12:30 pm, Vice President Cheney addresses Wyoming Republican Party luncheon, Casper, WY
—12:30 pm, White House on-camera briefing
— 4:00 pm, Paul O'Neill becomes the first Treasury Secretary to appear on Oprah
— 6:40 pm, Vice President Cheney makes remarks at dedication of Cheney Alumni Athletic Field, Casper, WY

Major Futures

Newly listed events are italicized.

— Sept. 21: Hawaii primary
—Sept. 20-22: Sen. John Edwards hosts retreat, Pinehurst, North Carolina.
— Sept. 22: Colorado Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 22: 4th Annual Great North Woods Lumberjack Championships, Berlin, New Hampshire
— Sept. 22: Arizona gubernatorial candidates debate
— Sept. 23: New York State Democratic Party "reorganization" meeting, Syracuse
— Sept. 23: Montana Senate candidates debate
— (tentative) Sept 27: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate, Jacksonville
— Sept. 23: President Bush campaigns for Senate candidate Doug Forrester, New Jersey
— Sept. 24: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets
— Sept. 24: Consumer Confidence figure for September due at 8:30 a.m.
— Sept. 25: Sen. John F. Kerry appears at Christian Science Monitor breakfast
— Sept. 25: President Bush fundraises for National Republican Senatorial Committee, DC
— Sept. 26: New home sales figures for August due
— Sept. 26: President Bush fundraises for TX Senate candidate John Cornyn
— Sept. 27: Final 2nd Quarter GDP figure due
— Sept. 27-29: California Republican Party convention
— Sept. 27-29: National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling convention, Dallas
— Sept. 29: DCCC mega-fundraiser, hosted by Rep. Dick Gephardt and featuring Barbra Streisand, Los Angeles
— Sept. 29: Rudy Giuliani fundraises for gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan (R), Illinois
— Sept. 30: Discovery ends in McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Sept. 30: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 30: 401(k) statements begin to roll out.
— Sept. 30: Third quarter campaign finance period closes
— Sept. 30: Statement from Vice President Cheney is due to judge in Judicial Watch/Halliburton lawsuit, Houston
— Oct. 1: Fundraiser for Erskine Bowles in DC; discounted tickets for former Clinton administration officials
— Oct. 2: Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Sen. Bill Frist at National Press Club luncheon
— Oct. 1: Federal pre-general campaign finance period begins
— Oct. 4: Al Sharpton's birthday
— Oct. 4: Employment data from September due
— Oct. 5: Tri-state's Largest Chili Cook-Off, Dubuque, Iowa
— Oct. 5: Sen. Chris Dodd keynotes Ohio Democratic Party dinner
— Oct. 5: President Bush travels to New Hampshire
— Oct. 5: Iowa Democratic Party Jefferson/Jackson dinner, keynoted by Gov. Howard Dean, Sen. John Edwards, and Sen. John Kerry.
— Oct. 5: Colorado Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 6: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Charleston
—Oct; 6: 30 day residency requirement deadline for voters in many states
— Oct. 7: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 7: Illinois gubernatorial candidates debate
#151; Oct. 7: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 7: California gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 9: Democratic National Committee hosts Get-Out-The-Vote concert, with musicians and the Clintons in attendence, DC
— Oct. 9: Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 11: Retail sales figure for September due
— Oct. 11: Congress target date for adjournment.
—Oct. 11-12: Christian Coalition's "God Bless America—One Nation Under God Road to Victory 2002" conference, DC
— Oct. 12: Sen. John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live, New York
— Oct. 13: Iowa State Hand-Cornhusking contest, Kimballton, Iowa
— Oct. 13: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 13: Illinois Senate candidates debate
— (tentative) Oct. 14: Arkansas Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 15: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct: 15: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Moorehead
— Oct. 15-17: Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn) travels to Iowa
— Oct. 16: Federal pre-general campaign finance period ends
— Oct. 17: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Rochester
— Oct. 17: Rep. Tom Davis (R) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D) at National Press Club
— Oct. 18: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for September due
— Oct. 18: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Clemson
— Oct. 18: New Hampshire Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with Sen. John Edwards as host
— Oct. 20: South Carolina Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Alabama gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Index of leading economic indicators for September figure due
— Oct. 21: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Minnesota Senate candidates debate, St. Cloud
— Oct. 22: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 23-24: FEC holds rule-making hearings on coordinated and independent expenditures
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Pre-general campaign finance report due to FEC
— Oct. 24: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Missouri Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 25: League of Conservation Voters
— Oct. 25: Durable goods orders, new home sales and existing home sales figures due
— Oct. 25: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Columbia
— Oct. 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
— Oct. 26: Karl Rove headlines 2nd Annual Ronald Reagan dinner, Des Moines, Iowa
— Oct. 28: Minnesota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: (tenative) South Dakota Senate candidates debate
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma
— Oct. 31: Estimate of Third Quarter GDP is released
— Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due
— Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
— Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 5: Election Day
— Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure rules go into effect
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego
— Nov. 17: Vermont Governor Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 18: Moussaoui trial: jury questionnaire distributed
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due.
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: Moussaoui trial voir dire: jury voir dire
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Governor. Gray Davis's birthday
— Jan 6, 2003: Opening arguments (tenative) for Moussaoui trial
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
— Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday
— Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Governor Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday

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