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As a snapshot today, five weeks and a day away from November 5, one party stands well-funded; confident; unified behind a single leader; drawing on emotion for both base and swing voters from what is on the front pages; and able to cite key races in which things are looking better for them.

The other party is, well, less well-funded overall; at odds with itself over the prevailing issue of the day, and speaking with many voices on that issue; and perhaps somewhat harder pressed to put some potentially competitive races into play.

In a year in which all of Congress is divided by a total of nine seats (one in the Senate and technically eight in the House, counting the two vacancies), with no one expecting either party to see some huge breakthrough, or that enough races will crystallize before election day to facilitate hard predictions of the outcome, it's almost silly to flat-out say that one party is better positioned than the other.

But today, if you had to say where the momentum is, you'd say the GOP.

You may be hearing more Democrats argue in the coming days that a Democrat-run Senate is necessary to serve as a check on the White House now that the GOP's odds of recapturing control of the Senate appear a bit brighter and Democrats' odds of recapturing the House seem, depending on who you ask, either darker or the same.

There's nothing politicos fight over more (except a share of the ad buy) than whether voters vote "strategically" like this or not.

The Washington Post 's Dewar and Eilperin do the Senate (and House) math for those who have been fixated on the war: the possible-to-likely loss of the Torricelli seat arguably puts Democrats' tenuous hold on the Senate at graver risk. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Milligan trailed House Minority Leader Gephardt to New Hampshire and wrote on Sunday of Democratic chances to win back the House: "'I'm optimistic we're going to do this,' Gephardt said, expressing confidence that the sluggish economy and recent corporate scandals will help Democrats at the polls. But even as he ticks off a series of races that could make the difference between setting the House agenda and fighting a disciplined GOP leadership that all but shuts out Democratic initiatives, the gloominess in his tone belies his optimistic statement." LINK

"GOP aides speaking on condition of anonymity said that Gephardt's estimate" that Republicans will spend $200 million to keep the House "isn't far off."

"Leaving a voter forum on the economy … , Gephardt lays out a scenario under which the Democrats could regain control: a seat or two in Georgia, a seat in New Hampshire, five or six in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas. But again, he comes back to the money, and his voice is seething with frustration."

But wait: there still are the fundamentals of the history of midterm elections, which if they kick in would work in Democrats' favor, and the continuous outpouring and poring over of economic statistics, with third-quarter 401(k) statements due out this week.

Amidst the back-and-forth between the two parties and the press over whether that Republican National Committee Team Leader e-mail was or wasn't a fundraising appeal (it wasn't) and what President Bush actually said at his New Jersey event last week is this underlying theme: Republicans want voters to think that Democrats on the ballot don't care about security issues, just as Democrats want voters to think that Republicans support a plan to cut the Social Security benefits of current retirees.

Clearly, Republican candidates are going to be helped by their image as the pro-Bush, pro-national security party.

What appears to be hanging in the balance as this week starts is: will Democrats fall into and suffer from the mirror image of that?

Will they revert to their Cold War image as being anti-war and weak on defense? And will that dictate how Americans vote in November?

The images and sound from Democrats over the weekend arguably won't help them in this regard. First came Congressmen McDermott and Bonior saying from Iraq that they don't trust the president to be honest with the American people about the war, but they DO trust Saddam Hussein to tell the truth.

Then the Democratic House campaign committee raised $6 million last night in Los Angeles at a Kodak Theatre gala that featured the war-protesting Barbra Streisand and "was punctuated with references to the possibility of military action." LINK

"Before the concert, Gephardt said Democratic leaders had been speaking out every day about Iraq, and would be increasingly vocal in coming weeks."

"'I think it's been particularly destructive for the president to say that the Democrats are not interested in national security,' he added. 'That is dragging politics into security issues, and I think it's immoral.'"

If by "vocal" Gephardt means vocally critical of the president, would(n't) that create an oxygen-depleting interparty fight and risk reigniting the party's anti-war, weak-on-defense image?

Bob Novak chronicles all this Daschle/Gephardt/Gore party doom and gloom. LINK

"Behind closed doors of the Democratic caucus, senators have badgered Daschle about losing the political game — and maybe control of the Senate. They complain that Bush political adviser Karl Rove has substituted Iraq for Democratic issues. Daschle has responded with defenses of Bush's sincerity, which may explain his uncharacteristically passionate response last week to the president's accusation that the Senate is not concerned with homeland security."

And speaking for a certain group of Americans, Robert Bartley and his Wall Street Journal mates across the page do their best to hammerlock the Democrats.

Bartley does his Bob Dole imitation, suggesting that Vietnam was a "Democrat" war, while the ed boarders (complete with a Gore dot drawing) cry crocodile tears over the Democrats edging back toward their Cold War McGovern/Dukakis/Borosage image.

On the other side of the coin, the bright side for Democrats, keying off the Census Bureau's verdicts last week on income and poverty levels, the Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein leads, "Nearly halfway through his term, President Bush's economic record is beginning to look a lot like that of his father, former President George Bush. That isn't good news for the younger Bush. Or for the economy." LINK

"Bush fans are undoubtedly howling that presidents shouldn't receive all the blame or credit for economic trends under their watch. That's fair enough … But the choices presidents make matter too. The first Bush chose to stand pat as the economy stumbled and unemployment rose in his last two years; his son chose to put all his chips on a huge tax cut that blew a hole in the federal surplus, may increase upward pressure on long-term interest rates and has severely crimped his ability to aim targeted initiatives at such problems as the increase in poverty or the decline in health-care coverage."

"Besides, while arguments about blame may be intellectually intriguing, ultimately they are politically irrelevant. Every president eventually owns his economy. The buck really does stop in the Oval Office, especially when Americans have fewer of them in their wallet."

"This Bush will benefit for a long time from the judgment among voters that he's effectively handling national security and the threat of terrorism."

"But unless these economic trends reverse direction, sooner or later Bush may find himself vulnerable to the gibe that Al Gore aimed at his father in 1992: 'Everything that should be going up is going down, and everything that should be going down is going up.' That's one bit of family history Bush would probably rather not relive."

We would bet a lot of those bucks (if we were the betting kind) that the former Vice President will repeat that remark (or some version of it) in his Wednesday speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in DC.

A Gore source confirms that this speech was not conceived of entirely unilaterally — Democratic National Committee staffers suggested late last week that Gore, after his splashy speech on Iraq, should consider focusing on the economy next.

Because for some Democrats, Gore can never do anything right, some will question the timing of such a speech. As the AP's Lester puts it, "Al Gore plans to offer his views on the U.S. economy Wednesday in a major policy speech on the topic at a time the political debate has turned increasingly toward Iraq and the possibilities of war."

Roll Call 's Wallison asks, "Do you know where Al Gore is?" link

"The erstwhile vice president was expected to burn up the Congressional hustings this cycle — raising money, making new friends, sealing alliances — as he mulled a 2004 rematch with President Bush. Re-launching his political action committee in February, he called 2002 "a critical year for our country" and declared his commitment to electing Democratic candidates to Congress."

"Word and deed have not yet lined up, it would seem."

"Officials at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Gore has so far done something 'in the neighborhood' of 10 events for candidates this cycle; in October, the officials said, Gore is expected — but not confirmed — to do events for candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that will take the first shots at choosing the party's presidential nominee in 2004."

"Privately, some party strategists are fuming over what they consider to be the former vice president's lack of engagement in the Congressional fight."

Of course it's all well and good for party strategists to take potshots at Gore anonymously, but even Rep. Harold Ford says he's not sure what Gore's up to.

"Gore's unusual estrangement from Congressional Democrats comes at perhaps the least propitious time for a would-be presidential candidate — a time when aspirants are doing the party legwork that they hope will pay off with endorsements and assistance in the nomination process."

"Gore spokesman Jano Cabrera acknowledged that there is an 'impression' among some on Capitol Hill that Gore has not been particularly engaged this cycle. But he said that people who have raised questions about Gore's commitment are missing the bigger picture, which is that Gore has requests to fulfill at every stratum of the party, from local Democratic organizations to gubernatorial contests."

And, of course, there is MetWest, book, and grandkid stuff to attend to, as well.

The kicker is an unnamed Gore ally saying he thinks Gore's running.

Gore's foreign policy speech got a second wave of clips this past weekend, with one that is mostly favorable from Joe "I was Sid Blumenthal before Sid Blumenthal was cool" Klein on Slate, and one that is not quite nice enough for us to understand why a Gore supporter sent it to us, in Newsweek.

Senator Joe Lieberman is in Florida today, holding a breakfast fundraiser for his PAC and campaigning with gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride. And Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is in South Carolina, campaigning around the state and giving a speech at the Citadel.

On Tuesday, President Bush will meet with a group of members of Congress to talk about terrorism insurance.

Former President Clinton will arrive in London Tuesday, and will address the Labour Party conference on Wednesday.

North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Erskine Bowles will be the beneficiary of a DC fundraiser on Tuesday:

"Among those putting on the event, to be held at a restaurant at Union Station, are Don Baer, a North Carolinian and former White House communications director; Jennifer Palmieri, a former deputy press secretary; Steve Ricchetti, a former deputy chief of staff; and Gene Sperling, a former top economic adviser." LINK

Wednesday, Bush will take part in a roundtable and make remarks on missing, exploited and runaway children, then head to Baltimore to headline a fundraiser for Maryland gubernatorial nominee Bob Ehrlich.

Al Gore will give his major speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in DC at 10:00 am.

Also on Wednesday, Senate campaign committee chairs Patty Murray and Bill Frist will face off at a National Press Club luncheon.

Bush currently has no public events scheduled for Thursday. Gov. Howard Dean will address the Empire State Pride annual dinner in New York.

On Friday, the president will fly to Boston to headline a fundraiser for Massachusetts gubernatorial nominee Mitt Romney. Al Gore also will be in Massachusetts that day campaigning for Democratic nominee Shannon O'Brien.

And employment figures will be released.

Saturday, Bush will go to New Hampshire for a welcome rally and a fundraiser for Senate nominee John Sununu. Iowa will hold the Tri-State's Largest Chili Cook-off in Dubuque, and Iowa Democrats will hold their Jefferson-Jackson dinner, keynoted by Dean, Senator John Edwards, and Senator John Kerry. And Senator Chris Dodd will keynote an Ohio Democrats' dinner.

Timing and head count for the resolution:

Roll Call 's Crabtree looks at "a core group of roughly 15 House Republicans" who are concerned about the seeming plan for attack. LINK

Politics of Iraq

Candidates and incumbents on the ballot this fall are "scrambling" to tout their military service. LINK

The Washington Times ' Lambro is channeling Tom Daschle, apparently, because he declares: "Tom Daschle's recent outburst had more to do with his political frustration over Iraq's dominance in the election debate than with President Bush's slap at Senate Democrats on national security." We do agree with some aspects of how Lambro gets to that questionably omniscient assertion. LINK

Legislative Agenda

The Washington Post 's Dewar lays out the likely legislative casualty list for the session that was. LINK

What will the president have done about the uninsured by time he stops serving in the White House (whenever that is)? LINK

White House pet/point person Rep. Rob Portman has a Washington Times op-ed calling for the Senate to pass the homeland security bill — without the civil service employee protections Democrats want. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Roll Call 's Wallison reports, "House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) is mulling whether to push leadership elections back to December this year — a prospect that many outside the leader's circle have interpreted as an effort to buy time to weigh his next major political move." LINK

The Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner offers: "U.S. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a potential rival to U.S. Senator John Edwards for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, was among the politicians who addressed a gathering in Washington this week of Chamber of Commerce officials from North Carolina … Meanwhile, during a breakfast meeting with reporters Wednesday, Kerry offered an interesting take on whether former Vice President Al Gore will seek the presidency in 2004. 'Somebody told me the other day that the Republicans are concerned he won't run,' Kerry quipped." LINK

Mr. Wagner also got hold of a new Edwards PAC fundraising letter: "In the Sept. 20 letter, Edwards rails against 'arrogant, uncaring corporations,' asserting that too often they 'hold sway over our government through massive contributions and armies of lobbyists. The pharmaceutical giants, Big Oil, HMOs and other special interests spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to influence elections and public policy — allowing them to profit at the expense of the American people.'"

"He asks recipients to send him money to 'level the playing field.'"

"Edwards' PAC, the New American Optimists, will steer the money to candidates on the ballot this year willing to help 'tip the scales back to the side of American families,' Edwards writes."

"Although Edwards' PAC has been fueled mostly by large donations — some donors have given $100,000 or more — this mailing appears to target more modest givers. Recipients are given a choice of donating $25, $50, $100 or 'other.'"

Edwards joined other Democrats in his state's delegation at a farewell fete of retiring Rep. Eva Clayton at the Teamsters' joint on Capitol Hill last week.

Wagner on Saturday previewed the national fame that may be coming for Robbins, NC. LINK

Ralph Nader told thousands of cheering IMF/World Bank protestors this past weekend that he will wait until 2003 to decide whether or not to run in '04. LINK

Campaign Finance

Discovery ends today in the legal proceedings over McCain-Feingold.

Also today, the FEC closes the books on the third quarter of campaign fundraising and spending.

On its front page, the New York Times seems less than indifferent to the notion that a lot of patriotic Americans want to be involved in the political process through contributions to their favored candidates, who need money to communicate with voters in an pricey media landscape. LINK

Instead, the emphasis, per usual, is on suggesting that the record-breaking soft-money giving and spending is a bad, awful, horrible thing.

Aspiring donors who have maxed out to the campaigns of the Maryland gubernatorial nominees still are able to give to certain state party funds … LINK

… while out-of-state limited liability corporations are funneling money into California ballot initiative campaigns. LINK

Roll Call 's Keller looks at some of the technology upgrading the FEC has to do for McCain-Feingold. LINK

Election Reform

Over the weekend, Gannett did its serialized election reform, woe-is-us, Florida-could-happen-in-your neighborhood story. LINK

Meanwhile, we wonder what happened to the resolve of congressional election reform bill conferees to get things done before October 1? Tick tock tick tock — that thing sure doesn't seem likely to get unstuck. We are sure that this is keeping Ms. Claire Buchan up nights, what with this being such a high priority for the president.

If it doesn't pass, we are thisclose to certain that the White House will add this to the list of top presidential priorities that have failed thus far to be realized.

Politics

Far too many people in politics and the political media are constitutionally unable to think about individual races without relying heavily on the latest poll numbers, even poll numbers that could be totally off.

Campaign strategists in DC, donors (especially donors!), and state and national media at this point can't seem to look at anything else (the likely demographics of the actual voting pool, the candidates' ideas, the advertising) beyond the cold, hard numbers.

We can't stop you donors and strategists from doing this, but for the love of Tully, would you local radio and TV stations (and cable news outfits), please stop framing all your coverage around every Tom, Dick, and Harry poll that comes out?

The percentage of all political coverage that is about nothing BUT the latest polling, or completely framed by the latest polling, is simply way too high.

Today's installment of Robin Toner's Iowa series (another Toner must-read): how the "outside" party and interest group TV ads play in a race where the incumbent doesn't even want 'em. LINK

The RNC is revving up its watchdog operation … LINK

… which is a good peg for us to remind you again to send stuff to our own mighty hungry ABCNEWS election watchdog here: LINK

From the plains of Iowa to the shuffleboard courts of Florida, voting in the 2002 general election has already begun.

Voters in 31 states will be able to vote before election day this year.

And in Oregon, effectively every voter is a so-called "early voter," since all ballots will be cast by mail, as voters get their mail-in ballots between 14 and 18 days before November 5.

In 2000, 14 percent of voters cast absentee ballots or participated in early voting. In some states, just over 50 percent of voters participated before election day. It's a recent trend of late; in 1980, only five percent cast absentee ballots.

Politicians, pollsters, campaign advisers, journalists, and data collectors aren't exactly sure how to quantify and sift through the demographics of these early voters, especially since many states don't bother to keep reliable statistics.

Check out Marc Ambinder's "we can't believe this chart ain't anywhere else" chart on all of this. LINK

On Wednesday, October 9, the Democratic National Committee will hold an "Every Vote Counts" concert at the Warner Theater, featuring former President Clinton, DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe, Janet Jackson, James Taylor, John Mellencamp, and Don Henley, among others.

In the ten years that Tennessean Jack Faris has been CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business, the trade association has matured into a political behemoth. Its influence in the Republican caucus is comparable to the better-funded US Chamber of Commerce, and its political spending has helped to spur a generation of small-business-friendly Republicans (and a few Democrats).

On this week's edition of Here's the Point, Faris tells ABCNEWS Political Director Mark Halperin how he picks and chooses his battles and what fights loom, post-election. LINK

He also has some pretty negative things to say about his fellow Volunteer Stater — one A. Gore.

It seems likely that for the second election in a row, after Mel Carnahan passed away in October 2000, voters will elect a member of Congress posthumously: Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink passed away from viral pneumonia on Saturday, two days after the deadline for removing her name from the ballot. Mink is being challenged by Republican Bob McDermott, but Democrats as Big as Senator Daniel Inouye are urging voters to support Mink on November 5. If she wins, a special election will be held to replace her.

The AP helpfully notes that in addition to Governor Carnahan: "On at least two occasions, voters elected incumbent House members who had died only weeks before: Reps. Clem Miller, D-Calif., in 1962 and Nick Begich, D-Alaska, in 1972." LINK

Roll Call 's Cillizza reads the pretty reliable tea leaves of where the Senate campaign committees are spending money on advertising to figure out which races each party believes are competitive, which ones they believe they've got in the bag, and which ones they think they can't do much for. LINK

Both parties are using newspaper ads and other means to target the estimated 6 million American voters living abroad. LINK

Measures that would ban bilingual education are on the ballot in Colorado and Massachusetts this fall, but many Republicans are lying low on the issue for fear of alienating Hispanic voters. LINK

Iowa

With his big ol' lead in the Des Moines Register 's poll, Democratic Senator Tom Harkin went into last night's debate with Republican Rep. Greg Ganske ready to put the thing away. But the Register says that Senator Harkin spilled his glass of water, and that more than one-fourth of the discussion was about that secretly recorded Ganske strategy meeting. LINK

The paper says Ganske made "his strongest accusations of wrongdoing to date over the matter," but what appears to matter most to us is this sentence, referring to the two departed Harkin aides and the man who allegedly did the taping: "Repeated attempts to reach Link, Ruthchild and Conley for comment have been unsuccessful."

Until those three tell their stories (publicly and maybe to The Law), this thing is not put to bed.

We wonder: what efforts are Iowa media making to reach those three cats, and to what extent are their efforts at not speaking being coordinated by anyone?

A weekend rolls through and still, "experts" aren't sure about the political impact of all this, writes the Register's Jane Norman, who is apparently latched to the scandal/pundit beat. LINK

Harkin also talked about the war resolution in the debate.

Before the debate, Harkin made a funny: "The best line of last night's Harkin-Ganske debate came before the show started. Harkin asked his staff if anybody remembered to tape 'The Sopranos.'" LINK

The Quad Cities paper has tons of good pre-debate and debate color. LINK

Defying the expectations of both parties, a poll of likely voters shows Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) with an 18-point lead over challenger Doug Gross (R). LINK

Splashed as it was in the Des Moines Register , we wonder what the campaigns thought of all this.

We didn't have time to check it out over the weekend, however, because we were seeing the movie "Secretary," in which, we ask, what city does the James Spader character reveal he grew up? LINK

A Register columnist says that 43 might come back to Iowa on the 19th of October for Gross. LINK

Florida

The unfolding story about whether Florida teachers' union dues improperly funded a potentially improper TV ad on gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride's behalf may not move further until after the election because the Florida Election Commission doesn't meet again until November 14. LINK

McBride's Friday debate with Gov. Jeb Bush focused on schools. LINK

Profile time: the Miami Herald looks at Gov. Jeb Bush's roots. LINK

"An Orlando judge is expected to decide today whether staff members at a rehab center can be forced to cooperate with police investigating possible drug charges against Noelle Bush — the daughter of Gov. Jeb Bush," says USA Today . "Because of its high profile — Noelle, 25, is also the president's niece — the case is being closely watched by about 14,000 drug treatment centers nationwide where 1.1 million abusers sought help in 2001." LINK

The Miami Herald also reports today that voters appear to favor the class size restriction ballot initiative, but they balk at its cost. LINK

California

Through the design and quirk of the legislative calendar, Gov. Gray Davis (D) sure got to sign a lot of bills targeted at a lot of different constituencies this month. LINK

Gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon (R) "got applause … and a standing ovation" at the California Republican Party convention in Orange County. LINK

But the Sacramento Bee's Dan Walters sees "deep-seated" conflicts between the several factions of the state party as unresolved. LINK

The San Francisco Chronicle finds GOPers "upbeat" after the convention, though. LINK

And the sharpies in DC just keep asking: when is Simon going to write another big check? Except for the GOP sharpies who have already given up on the guy.

New Hampshire

The aroma of campaign season wouldn't be complete without the spice of a legion of college students from Massachusetts helping the Democratic coordinated campaign. LINK

New Jersey

Members of the Senate Ethics Committee tell Roll Call 's Kane that they will not reopen the Torch case. LINK

The latest Star Ledger-Eagleton poll gives challenger Doug Forrester a double-digit lead over Democratic Senator Bob Torricelli. LINK

If Georgia Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood or Karl Rove wrote "The Onion," this is the kind of headline they would write: "Unions set aside ethics concerns to help Torricelli campaign." LINK

But, as Jay Leno would say, folks, we ain't making this up.

Massachusetts

Senator Ted Kennedy is apparently stumping for state Democratic candidates, particularly gubernatorial nominee Shannon O'Brien, like he hasn't done in years, according to the Boston Globe , which is cheeky enough to suggest that maybe the Senator is fired up by the prospect of beating Mitt Romney again. LINK

And look, Al Gore historians, at what Kennedy says in the kicker: "Kennedy insists that his sole concern is the problems the state is facing, and his feeling is that O'Brien can help address them. 'Everything is going up that ought to be down, and everything is going down that ought to be up,' he said. 'I think that she understands this challenge."'

Meanwhile, both gov nominees are having a little trouble with their bases. Republican Mitt Romney has alienated conservatives who supported James Rappaport for lieutenant governor LINK , while Democrat O'Brien isn't doing as well as she could/should among minorities. LINK

Mitt Romney is wholly qualified to be governor of Massachusetts, Republicans will say, but national office is a different story: "Romney might be a strong candidate in liberal-leaning Massachusetts, several GOP strategists and Bush advisers said in interviews, but he's far too moderate and inexperienced to qualify for a national ticket." LINK

If you were running for governor, how would you like to hear someone in your party say this about you? "'Romney's got no track record,' said one Bush administration source. 'There are no real political footprints. He's got no real accomplishments. He's a work-in-progress, clearly a long way from the national stage despite all the rave Olympic reviews.'"

And the Boston Herald notes, "Hiring in ways that seem to belie his 'clean up the mess' mantra against Democrat Shannon P. O'Brien, Romney has surrounded himself with the architects of strategy and message to Govs. William F. Weld, Paul Cellucci and Jane M. Swift." LINK

New York Post

Four days running, the New York Post has given over some or all of the wood to Carl McCall's letters on official stationery seeking jobs for his relatives. LINK

We'd say this is excessive, except:
1. We LOVE the way the Post continues to finesse the question of where they got the letters from.
2. McCall has now pulled some of his papers out of the state files from which others could be gotten by the press (but don't you think the Pataki folks already got what they wanted?)
3. Per the norm, the McCall campaign is handling this horribly.

In fact, Team McCall can't even handle the apparent axing of Hank Sheinkopf without Dickersian babbling. LINK

One can be obsessed with a Thai boy, Magnolia's banana pudding, Springsteen, or that chick on "Alias."

The New York Post is obsessed with Mrs. Clinton's Whitehaven manse. LINK

They are, in fact, SO obsessed with the house that they included a picture of the WRONG house, as anyone who has trekked up there can tell you.

"I can't comment on what goes on inside that house, because we honestly don't know whose house it is," Clinton press secretary Philippe Reines told us. "But Senator Clinton is working hard to elect Democrats, including by opening her home. Her own home. The one where she actually lives."

Minnesota

Could it really be true that some Democrats haven't figured out that Republicans viscerally dislike Alec Baldwin? His fundraising appearance in Minnesota on behalf of Senator Paul Wellstone and gubernatorial candidate Roger Moe elicited protests and made local Democrat-Farmer-Laborer folks "frustrated" about all the attention. LINK

Kansas

We don't usually like blind leads: "One is a two-term congressional Democrat familiar with the partisan rancor that colors Washington politics but who nonetheless offers Republican Colin Powell as his personal hero. The other is a political newcomer who says the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks prompted him to examine what purpose his life might hold and to get involved in the political arena."

But. we have to admit. it's a pretty good way to introduce voters to Rep. Dennis Moore (D) and challenger Adam Taff (R). LINK

American Hero Bob Dole is scheduled campaign for Taff today.

South Dakota

The Sioux Falls Argus Leader updates the Stan Greenberg Dilemma: why, if Democrats score points with voters on domestic issues, do they fail to translate their issue advantage into electoral success? LINK

"South Dakota voters think Senator Tim Johnson has better plans to deal with a catastrophic drought, fix Social Security and make prescription drugs cheaper, but the Democrat still has only the slimmest of leads over his Republican challenger, Rep. John Thune, according to a statewide poll."

Wisconsin

What the newspapers tout as the "first, major, independent" poll of the Wisconsin gubernatorial race shows Attorney General Jim Doyle (D) with an eight-point lead over Republican Gov. Scott McCallum. But 48 percent of voters say they haven't decided yet, and Libertarian Ed Thompson polls about six percent. LINK

Illinois

The future of Illinois politics hinges on a generation gap, the Tribune big-thinks. "More than just casting a ballot, Illinois voters on Election Day will also be making a generational statement, a choice between a Republican ticket fielded by an entrenched, aging party apparatus and a Democratic slate featuring many old political names served up in a more youthful package." LINK

Tennessee

More profiles: Phil Bredesen, Democratic gubernatorial nominee. LINK

North Carolina

Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Elizabeth Dole are both up with new radio ads on Social Security in the North Carolina Senate race. LINK

South Carolina

The Washington Post 's looks at the "underdog" re-election bid of the state's "accidental" Democratic governor. LINK

A poll for The State newspaper found almost 53 percent of voters saying affordable health care is one of their top three priorities. The unbylined Mr. Bandy, we presume, offers nice blurbs of all the major candidates' positions on the issue. LINK

The nonpartisan Palmetto Project is gearing up to turn out the vote; Saturday is the deadline for voter registration for the general election. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Jay Carney turns a simple steak dinner with Karl Rove into a must-read on Mr. Rove's actual and alleged influence in the White House. LINK

There's the usual "Powell, etc. wouldn't tolerate Rove's involvement in foreign policy" (as if) — backed up by a quote from Fast Eddie Gillespie, who, The Note agrees with Newt, is a very smart fellow.

Guess along with Karl himself about which United States Senator says all this: "'There are some high-level people in the White House, Karl Rove being the main driver, who are using this for politics,' says a G.O.P. Senator, whose message to his colleagues is: 'Don't be baited. Don't let Rove hook you.'"

And no offense to Jay, but he caps off the piece with this non-news: "Rove has already drawn up plans for the 2004 re-election campaign, White House sources tell TIME. Ken Mehlman, his deputy, will leave the White House to be the official campaign manager."

Elisabeth Bumiller just keeps churning out away-from-the-pack clever White House features that Dana Milbank might think of if he weren't so afraid of being audited.

Today's New York Times "White House Letter" looks at the administration using specialty magazines to get the message out to swing voters. LINK

We like in particular the meta-interview with congressional liaison Nick Calio about his interview with a groovy wine mag, and the president's focus on running a faster mile.