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Acknowledging the anniversary and likely media blackout, some candidates in their victory speeches suggested that their campaigns will begin in earnest on Thursday. Some requisite "unity breakfasts" are being postponed until then.

Whether or not the winners' "bounce" will be preserved through the anniversary remains to be seen.

Still hanging in the balance at this writing: the integrity of Florida's voting system, the Democratic nomination for governor of that state, and, in the absence of that outcome and given the already known results from around the country, the determination of whether last night was a good night for Democrats, or a good night for Republicans.

At this writing, Florida's crazy, poorly run system has tabulated about 97 percent of the vote, and Bill McBride leads Janet Reno by about 2 percent, but most of the votes remaining to be counted come from Reno strongholds.

When the counting will start again, and when it will be finished, remain TBD. Also unclear are what kinds of missing ballots, turned-away voters, and other irregularities will be found in the end that could serve to undermine the results.

Under the state's post-2000 election law, a machine recount is automatically triggered when the margin of victory is one-half of one percent or less. A margin of one-quarter of one percent or less result in an automatic hand recount of the ballots (or, depending upon the type of system used, a visual tally of the touch-screen machine's total).

While we wait for Florida to take shape, consider the other results:

New Hampshire turned out well for Republicans, who nominated what seem to be their strongest possible Senate and gubernatorial nominees.

New York was great for Democrats because wealthy self-funding candidate Thomas Golisano appears to have defeated GOP Gov. George Pataki for the Independence Party line on the November ballot, and is expected to spend millions to try to take the governorship away from the Governor.

Setting aside for a moment Pataki's huge warchest and his even bigger political skills (those are mega things, but put them aside), with New York you now have a heavily Democratic state; a heavily favored group of Democrats running for other offices; a candidate who will likely unite and turn out the Democratic base with his historic effort; the Clintons working hard to win this; and a multimillionaire who will pound Pataki with ads all fall, orchestrated by a wily, experienced consultant (Roger Stone) who remembers well his run-in with the Governor over Trump business.

All of which lands this race on the edge of the radar screen, while still not squarely front and center. But Republicans — who remain worried about the November message and practical implications of losing a lot of governorships this year — could now be facing races in New York and Florida that weeks ago looked like easy wins.

In North Carolina, Erskine Bowles handily won the Democratic Senate nomination; his African-American challenger has yet to endorse him, but Democratic party strategists, noting that the guy is savvy and has a future in politics, express confidence that an endorsement for Bowles is coming.

North Carolina is one of those places where a Democrat running statewide who gets a huge black turnout and holds his own with the white vote is automatically competitive.

Women candidates for Senate and governor saw mixed results Tuesday night: Elizabeth Dole cruised to victory on the GOP primary to replace retiring Senator Jesse Helms. Ditto Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in her Senate primary in New Hampshire. Democrat Janet Napolitano won her party's nomination for governor in Arizona. And former state legislator Myrth York narrowly defeated Sheldon Whitehouse for Rhode Island's Democratic gubernatorial nod.

But women candidates for governor in Arizona, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire lost, and Reno still is trailing in Florida.

It is not impossible that Reno's campaign will dispute the results, given all the irregularities, but any appeal is likely to fail for lack of a remedy, not to mention tick off a Democratic Establishment itching for quick healing and a unified focus on Jeb.

Not that Reno is necessarily going to listen to the Establishment … When we last heard from her campaign, they were raising the specter of a challenge, but the AP says she's now back at home, and we don't know when they'll talk.

McBride already has done a Wednesday photo op with children and is tentatively scheduled to appear at an 11:30 am rally in Tampa.

Assuming that McBride does scrape through with the gubernatorial nomination, he won't be getting quite the bounce some Democrats were anticipating last week. If you compare the outcome to the wider margins that those Democrats were expecting/hoping for, you would have to conclude that the Bush opposition research dump on McBride might have had some dampening effect.

Of course, it's also possible that McBride never was going to reach those levels, and that Reno's voters simply all turned out.

Governor Bush, on the other hand, will be weakened by the ballot fiasco. Putting politics aside, he IS the governor, and he failed to insure that a working system was in place. Ordering the polls to stay open two additional hours was hardly a solution.

Adding politics back in: all of this has the potential to revive the "get-the-Bushes-for-election-irregularity" energy that once promised to drive Democratic efforts in the Sunshine State this year. Republican bravado aside, honest GOPers will quietly say that if McBride holds on to his current lead, this is going to be a competitive race.

The debacle in Florida, replete with yet more sound and video of frustrated voters, has and will continue to dominate what coverage there is of the primaries, while strategists on both sides sift for clues as to what the mess will mean for Jeb.

Democrats charge that the mess represents yet another big Bush promise gone unkept, arguing that he pledged to fix the state's education system, child welfare system, and elections systems — and hasn't.

The gist of what happened with the vote is that after the state spent $32 million on election reform, dozens of polling sites experienced problems due to human errors committed by poll workers who: 1) did not know, in a few cases, that it was their responsibility to turn on the machines, 2) were late getting hired and trained by the counties; 3) either quit, showed up at the wrong place, or told voters to push the wrong buttons (or some combination of the above).

Of course, there also were mechanical problems related to some of the state's new touch-screen and optical-scan machines.

In our best Rich Galen boil-it-down sentence: new systems can work as bad as old systems if no one knows how to work them.

Neither the media (state and national) nor the state's government and interest groups did enough to make sure this wouldn't happen. It's likely the state will make a big push to fix things before November.

Even Governor Bush, who earlier in the day had joked about Democrats and their voting problems, was hopping mad that his reformed election system threatened to deny the franchise to thousands of voters.

Metaphorically pathetic, the Florida Secretary of State's website reported results last night all well behind the AP. LINK

As of Wednesday morning at 8:18 am, the page had only 90.5 percent of the vote in.

We like this quote from the Miami Herald , and not just because we feel the same way: ""I feel like throwing up,' said McBride's campaign manager, Robin Rorapaugh." LINK

From a practical standpoint, it seems unlikely that all of the state's voting problems will be solved by November 5.

Indeed, it's fair to expect other states that have changed their systems since 2000 to continue to have problems because of the learning curve, although they probably won't get as much in-state or national attention as Florida.

(Fr'instance, poll workers in Montgomery County, Maryland, home to the hotly contested 8th Congressional District Democratic primary, fought with their new machines, as well.) LINK

Meanwhile, the federal election reform effort remains stalled in Congress, although some are speculating that Florida 2002 might unstick it.

Former Secretary of State Katherine Harris became the GOP nominee in the 22th Congressional District, though her candidacy faces at least one legal hurdle before it's in the clear.

In the Granite State, Bob Smith (R) became the first Senate incumbent to be defeated in a primary since 1996, when appointed Senator Sheila Frahm, who was tapped to fill Bob Dole's vacated Senate seat, lost to Sam Brownback.

Smith is the first elected Senate incumbent to lose in a primary since Carol Moseley Braun defeated Senator Alan Dixon in 1992.

While Sununu always lagged behind Smith in fundraising, the GOP Establishment always viewed him as the stronger opponent to anointed Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen. As the Washington Post 's Balz and Broder note, "Sununu's support was, like his campaign, less fervent — but much broader. His victory will make it more difficult for Democrats to win the seat." LINK

Along with getting their man Sununu, avoiding Gordon Humphrey as their gubernatorial nominee makes national Republicans very happy.

In North Carolina, anticipating certain victory, Elizabeth Dole put forth a proposal to air debates instead of campaign ads, pooling money to buy TV and radio airtime. Dole noted that then-Democratic nominee John Edwards offered such a proposal in 1998. (Judging from her letter, Dole also seems to be under the illusion that the candidates can control third-party advertising.)

In Georgia, controversial state Rep. Billy McKinney, father of outgoing US Rep. Cynthia McKinney lost by ten percentage points. Whether it was his vocal blaming of "J E W S" for his daughter's loss or dissatisfaction with his policies is unknowable. And in Miami Dade County, Florida, voters apparently defeated an attempt to repeal the county's gay rights ordinance.

President Bush previews his speech tonight in a New York Times op-ed. LINK

Meanwhile, Vice President Cheney is scheduled to give one interview today from his undisclosed location: a radio interview with Rush. Let's see if he keeps that commitment in the face of Democratic criticism over his arguably playing to the base on what is supposed to be the most non-political of days.

And Senator Ted Kennedy will deliver what is expected to be, for lack of a better term, a Kennedyesque speech honoring the Massachusetts victims of September 11 at Faneuil Hall today.

Florida

"What A Mess," headlines the St. Petersburg Times. LINK

Here's our look at the voting problems: LINK The Orlando Sentinel reports that voter roll books went missing at one precinct.

LINK

So, um, just in case:

Candidates have 10 days from the time the canvassing board certifies the results to challenge the election in circuit court.

State certification must itself take place within seven days of the primary. Again: Florida automatically conducts machine recounts when the margin of victory is one half of one percent or less, and automatically conducts hand recounts when the margin is less than one-quarter of one percent.

Redress for an election like this? It's not clear, since so many of the problems appear to be the result of poll workers doing X when they ought to have done Y.

National Democrats, however, are expressing confidence that Reno won't challenge the results in the end, if she appears behind by a wide enough margin.

A tiff between election officials in Hillsborough County and the state: After Governor Bush extended voting hours, election supervisor Pan Iorio wondered aloud whether she'd be able to get in touch with all her precincts to inform them, and wondered whether, if she wasn't able to tell certain precincts, she'd open herself to an equal protection challenge under Florida law.

The on-the-record response from Secretary of State Jim Smith's spokesman: "We find her comments really unhelpful."

Eventually, the county mustered about 50 employees to phone-bank the precincts, and the last time we checked, they had notified every one.

"The equal protection problem would occur if we didn't extend the poll closing time," Smith's spokesman said.

Justin Sayfie's a guy used to work for Jeb Bush. Now he lobbies, practices law, and continues to work in GOP politics. But he's got a website that's chock full of newspaper links and could come in handy in tracking this abysmal (we have to say) sequel to 2000. LINK

Georgia

New Hampshire

Democratic Senate nominee Jeanne Shaheen might pay a price now for having failed to recruit and nurture an anti-income tax successor. Sununu will now get to run with a strong, well-funded, heavily favored ticket-mate, and that is a big advantage.

But don't underestimate the difficulty of running against a tough, savvy woman on this year's issues matrix.

The AP juxtaposes two quotes that get right at what this fascinating match-up will be like: "'Jeanne Shaheen is a liberal Democrat. She supported Walter Mondale; she supported Al Gore,' Sununu told cheering supporters."

"In an interview, Shaheen said she and Sununu disagree on every issue."

"'On health care, on education, on the environment, on the economy, on who should get the tax breaks — big corporations or middle Americans — he and I differ,' she said."

"The precarious balance in the Senate prompted Democrats to spend about $2 million on behalf of [anointed nominee Jeanne] Shaheen in the primary, most of it on television ads targeting Sununu's career," the Boston Globe 's Johnson reports. "The GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, spent about $1.4 million in the primary on ads attacking Shaheen, especially on education issues. President Bush is expected to headline a fund-raiser here to boost the Republican Party's chances in the general election." LINK

"The Smith-Sununu battle had been agonizing for many Republicans because it pitted against each other two conservatives who agreed on many issues," the Washington Times ' Z. Hallow bangs outs. LINK

The Globe also offers the "generational shift" analysis for both the Senate and gubernatorial GOP primaries. LINK

Yesterday was Sununu's 38th birthday. LINK

Maryland

Robert F. Kennedy's daughter won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination hands down, as expected, but John F. Kennedy's nephew Mark Shriver, a state delegate, lost his congressional bid last night to state Senator Chris Van Hollen, who built up a head of steam in the final weeks that allowed him to overcome Shriver's big financial and organizational advantages. LINK

Endangered GOP Rep. Connie "Morella didn't bother waiting for the final results. As Democrats streamed out of the polls, her campaign was handing them a brochure highlighting Morella's endorsement by such traditionally Democratic-leaning groups as the League of Conservation Voters, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and the National Abortion Rights Action League."

North Carolina

The state's primaries "attracted a modest turnout, but it was higher than many had predicted, probably topping 20 percent," write the Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen and Wagner, who also point out that Dan Blue did not endorse nominee Erskine Bowles, leaving Bowles' support among African-Americans somewhat in doubt, at least for now. LINK

Vermont

With a three-way gubernatorial contest now set, Vermonters may not give any one candidate 50 percent of the vote on November 5, and the Boston Globe nicely explains how that would send the decision to the state legislature. LINK

Washington, D.C.

The hand count of the write-in ballots will take some time, but the Washington Post got the anecdotal and exit polling sense that Mayor Anthony Williams (D) won the primary — and thus, re-election — comfortably last night. LINK

Rhode Island

Despite being a longtime legislator and her party's nominee for governor twice before, Democratic primary winner Myrth York "positioned herself as an agent for change," the Boston Globe says, while GOP nominee and businessman Don Carcieri touted his nonideological business background. LINK

And Democrats have assigned David N. Cicilline the challenging task of trying to fill indicted Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci's shoes. LINK

Wisconsin

"Attorney General Jim Doyle finished first in a three-way Democratic field Tuesday night, and will now face Republican Gov. Scott McCallum in a November election that promises to be the most competitive governor's race in 16 years," the Journal Sentinel of Milwaukee reports. LINK

Arizona

As expected, a Napolitano/Salmon face-off has been set up in Arizona. This governor's race is a toss-up. LINK

Connecticut

The Nutmeg State didn't hold any statewide primaries yesterday. There was one congressional primary — for the dubious honor of taking on safe Democratic incumbent John Larson in November. LINK

Georgia

Rep. Cynthia McKinney's father, state legislator Billy McKinney, longtime representative of parts of Atlanta and Cobb County, lost his re-election bid to a virtual unknown, 31-year-old John Noel. Billy McKinney had achieved national renown after blaming Jews for his daughter's primary defeat three weeks ago. LINK

McKinney at one point last night referred to his opponent, who is white, as a "Klansman."

Election Reform

The US government, if Congress gets it acts together, plans to spend about $400 million, largely to replace outdated voting equip.m.ent, which we now know won't necessarily solve the problem.

The latest word on Congress' legislative effort, from a few sources:

The House and the Senate are closing in on a compromise bill, though most members of the conference haven't thought too much about election reform since bills passed respective chambers. Folks are busy with other matters.

Leading members of the Congressional Black Caucus, for whom election reform is a priority, will make a public push in the next few days to convene the biggest personalities of the reform conference.

(Speaking of the CBC, they begin their annual legislative conference today).

As the New York Times ' Pear reported last week, top Republican leaders do list election reform as a priority, and House Speaker Hastert is committed to finding money for it. (President Bush's decision not to spend the $5 billion in supplemental appropriations last month killed the scheduled source of funding.)

Bottom line: things didn't look good before last night, but now, who knows?

Corporate Governance

The Washington Post 's Milbank writes up congressional Democrats' call "on Vice President Cheney yesterday to compensate hundreds of former Halliburton Co. employees who lost millions of dollars in pension payouts when Halliburton sold a subsidiary under Cheney's leadership" — by returning all or some of his retirement income. LINK

"Jennifer Backus, spokeswoman for the House Democrats' campaign committee, said candidates would use the issue in November's elections. 'Dick Cheney's refusal to return the funds and help the workers with the money he made at Halliburton gives the Democrats a perfect metaphor to tell the story of the Republican allegiance to the special interests,' she said."

Economy

In the understated manner The Note loves, the Wall Street Journal says, "In a develop.m.ent that could have major consequences for the U.S. economy, oil prices closed just shy of $30 a barrel, reflecting a market nervous about the prospect of war with Iraq and OPEC's indecision about whether to boost production when it meets next week."

Ugly ugliness in the New York Post : "The U.S. economy is A-OK, if you listen to Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill." LINK

"But Wall Street pros say no way."

"In an interview timed to coincide with the first anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, O'Neill said the U.S. economy not only survived, but thrived."

"'From an economic point of view, we haven't sustained a huge hit,' said O'Neill in an interview with Bloomberg News."

"Very few Wall Street experts, however, agree with O'Neill. They call his forecast for the coming year too optimistic."

But ugliest of all (thank goodness Secretary O'Neill doesn't care about such stuff) is the kicker: "'I'm not surprised he wants everyone to think it's hunky-dory,' said one economist. 'I am surprised anyone is still paying attention to him.'"

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle will address the League of Conservation Voters' annual dinner in DC on September 19. No word yet on who'll keynote the LCV's New York dinner in October

Legislative Agenda

In depicting Senate Democrats as being somewhat crosswise and "wavering" on homeland security and the civil service employee issue, the Washington Times notes, "While Mr. Daschle was announcing on the Senate floor that no votes on homeland security would be held, the author of the bill, Democratic Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, was telling reporters in a nearby hallway how important it was to complete work on the legislation." LNIK

Senators (Ben) Nelson and Breaux support a proposal that "would allow the White House to declare some jobs nonunion and would place the burden on the employee to prove in an appeal that the position was not vital to national security," which arguably amounts to wavering (or compromise), though Republicans seem to reject that idea.

Proponents of the faith-based legislation are "working hard this week to get an agreement that would allow Senate-floor action." LINK

Politics

The most important political story in any paper today just might be the Wall Street Journal 's lead story on how the individual states are dealing with rising prescription drug costs.

Unless, of courses, it is the coverage of the Senate vote on deficit-spending-fueled drought relief.

The third-most important non-primary political story to Note today: the AP report that GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon said on conservative talk-radio that he will air TV ads not only with Rudy Giuliani, but also with President Bush. "Simon consultant Jeff Flint declined to comment on details of the ads or when they would air … A White House spokesman had no immediate comment late Tuesday."

The Wall Street Journal 's Harwood has a must-read big thinker on President Bush's macro political situation.

Breeze through the perfunctory Rove-on-the-record section to this stuff: "His chance to overhaul Social Security has vanished for the foreseeable future. Just ask Rep. Tom Davis, who has made burying Mr. Bush's signature domestic initiative a cornerstone of his strategy for retaining GOP control of the House. Prospects for anything more than rhetoric on a prescription-drug benefit for senior citizens aren't much better."

"These setbacks aren't marginal; they are central to the promise of leadership Mr. Bush campaigned on. Just like last year, he was in Florida on Sept. 11, 2000, telling retirees in Clearwater, 'When I look you in the eye and say prescription drugs is gonna be a priority of mine, I'm a plain-spoken enough guy to mean it … '"

"But success on Mr. Bush's terms requires more than maneuvering. He set those terms himself with the 2000 campaign slogan, 'Reformer with Results.'"

"Here are some results so far: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined by nearly 2000 points since he took office; unemployment has risen to 5.7% from 4.2%. In the six quarters of the Bush presidency, growth of gross domestic product has averaged 1.1%, down from 3.6% in the last six quarters of the Clinton presidency. In the Journal/NBC poll, only 38% of Americans believe the country is safer than a year ago."

"Results, not emotional resonance: That's the test Mr. Bush still must pass."

Steven Greenhouse continues to dominate the Post -Swoboda era with a definitive New York Times profile of Carpenters' Union chief Douglass McCarron, and his alliance with President Bush. LNIK

A must-read if you care about
-- any article quoting Ken Mehlman on the record (if you read The Note, you SHOULD care about such articles)
-- the president's re-election strategy (assuming he runs)
-- Rich Bond's consultancy (which is lucrative)

We've updated our calendar with the latest major debates, the economic figures that'll come out between now and November 5, and a few other dates. Check it out HERE

Paul Bedard reports on the (finally) updated Clinton website … . LINK

… .which can be found at http://www.clintonpresidentialcenter.com/

New Jersey

Republican Senate nominee Doug Forrester's first general election misstep (failing to be perfectly clear about his views on a gas tax increase) won't be fatal, but it is going to take avoiding just this kind of "distraction" to beat the take-no-prisoners incumbent, so this will give the GOP Senate campaign committee pause. LINK

Texas

Campaign ads in Texas have been mee-eean, and there are 56 days left to run them. LINK

Michigan

One would mandate treatment for certain drug crimes, rather than incarceration. Mandatory minimum sentences for most drug crimes would be eliminated. The measure is worded to include heightened penalties for drug kingpins first. Its cost has been estimated at $120 million a year. Gov. John Engler (R) went so far as to veto state-county revenue sharing proposals this spring because he believed the combined cost of this and other ballot measures would eclipse $1 billion and potentially bankrupt the state. His veto has become an issue in the gubernatorial election, and has left proponents of this measure on the defensive. They say their measure will save money in the long run.

The other initiative would redirect about $300 million from the state's tobacco settlement fund to prevent teen and child tobacco use, to care for smokers suffering from lung cancer, and fund a prescription drug benefit for seniors. Opponents say the money is better spent on other projects.

Minnesota

We told you earlier about reported and rumored GOP unhappiness with Senate nominee Norm Coleman's TV ads. Well, welcome to the Coleman campaign, new media consultant Scott Howell.

Massachusetts

While the major-party candidates for governor steer clear of politicking today, "Libertarian candidate Carla Howell is not among them. Howell plans to campaign at Massachusetts gun stores where she will call for Americans to arm themselves against terrorists and call for the abolition of laws that restrict gun ownership." LINK

Robert Reich may be vying for the lead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but he has little cash. LINK

Former President Clinton will campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, whoever he or she may be, on October 10. If Reich becomes the nominee, after ticking off the FPOTUS earlier in the campaign, that could be interesting …

South Carolina

Whoops. "Until last week, US Airways kept a note in its computer files that instructed employees to waive fees for U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings, D-S.C., and his wife," The State reports. "Forgoing those fees could potentially have reduced the cost of a flight by hundreds of dollars. Hollings' spokesman Andy Davis said the senator had no knowledge of the note." Hollings, of course, chairs the Senate Commerce Committee. LINK

Democratic media consultant Kevin Geddings has become an issue in the governor's race, again. LNIK

Iraq Politics

The Los Angeles Times ' Hook and Gerstenzang write that members are no longer just hemming and hawing over Iraq, but downright "bridling at the pressure and warning that considerably more groundwork needs to be laid before they are prepared to vote on the White House request." LINK

"Although few doubt that Bush will win whatever authority he seeks from Congress whenever it comes to a vote, many lawmakers are expressing qualms about his preference that they address the issue before Congress adjourns in mid-October for the final weeks of this year's campaigns."

Under an "exclusive" banner and a crowded byline, USA Today leads, "President Bush's determination to oust Iraq's Saddam Hussein by military force if necessary was set last fall without a formal decision-making meeting or the intelligence assessment that customarily precedes such a momentous decision." LINK