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The Agenda: Click here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and today's daybook.
So let's let the midterm election campaign resume.
And what better place to start off with than the politics of war, the economy, and Florida.
President Bush will take his case for attacking Iraq to the United Nations today at 10:30 am, but for practical purposes, his audience is Congress.
The administration is playing a (mostly) subterranean game of chicken with congressional Democrats and at least some Republicans who don't want to have to vote on a resolution before the election, for both political and substantive reasons.
The cable nets, along with most of Washington, are hoping that Alan Greenspan will get right to the heart of it in his 10:00 am appearance before the House Budget Committee, so that 30 minutes later, they can turn to the president.
The committee and Wall Street will be looking for some encouraging words out of Mr. Greenspan-Mitchell on the heels of the Fed study released yesterday showing a slowing of economic momentum (um, what momentum?). For more on that, see below.
The late word from ABCNEWS' Schindelheim is that the weekly jobless claims number rose "unexpectedly."
In the Sunshine State, where coverage of the September 11 anniversary was expected to blot out coverage of the winner of Tuesday's Democratic gubernatorial primary, perceived-but-still-far-from-official nominee Bill McBride gets his victory headlines today — sort of.
With McBride "looking like a winner," as the Miami Herald puts it, the big question for now deriving from the debacle that was, yet again, a Florida statewide election is: will Janet Reno automatically receive a recount, be moved to request one, or in some other way seek an outcome-forestalling remedy?
With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, McBride had 600,425 votes (44.5 percent), Reno had 592,434 votes (43.9 percent), and Daryl Jones had 156,165 votes (11.6 percent).
Orange County is still checking its totals, and in theory other counties might, too, before the official county canvass totals are due today.
If it's any comfort to you flashback-stricken folks who are curled up in the fetal position, the picture must become clearer today, since county officials must report their results to the secretary of state's office by 12 noon ET. (Official tallies are due next Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.).
Once all of this is settled, the political world will move to determining just how relatively strong the Democratic nominee (and "his" running mate) will be, and what effect the election mess might have on stirring up the anti-Jeb passions of 2000.
Governor Bush has a public schedule today; the two Democrats' schedules are TBD.
A lot of estimates and best guesses are floating around out there, including the Herald's, as to how narrow the margin separating McBride and Reno will become, with many pegging it at an amount just a shade too big to trigger an automatic machine recount, which would kick in if the margin were within one half of one percent percent of the vote.
By our own calculation, an automatic machine recount would be triggered by a margin of about 6,750 votes. The margin here is 7,991 votes. Which would make for a margin of sixth tenths of one percent.
Reno's campaign will have 10 days from the moment Secretary of State Jim Smith (R) certifies the results to challenge the certification in state court, based on the irregularities.
Her campaign, in wait-and-see mode, has said little apart from recognizing the need to get this settled quickly (on the one hand) and Reno's concern that voters may have been disenfranchised (on the other).
"Reno's advisers were divided on the subject of a court challenge, with lawyer Joe Geller and others said to be pushing for a court fight based on rampant voting irregularities in South Florida that the campaign believes turned away many black voters," the Miami Herald reports. "Other Reno strategists argued privately Wednesday that a protracted legal battle would tear apart the Democratic Party and only suck away legitimacy from McBride should he be the nominee."
LINK
"No decisions have yet been made, but Alan Greer, the Reno campaign's general counsel, said the options range from essentially accepting the results of the election without a challenge to seeking a 're-do' of the election. 'There may be some remedies in between that I'm not prepared to discuss,' Greer said."
"Also on Wednesday, the talk turned to a potential running mate for McBride. Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, who might take much of the heat for his county's voting problems, may have lost some of his luster as a contender to run with McBride."
"State Senator Daryl Jones, a Miami Democrat who finished a distant third in the race for governor after mounting the first such campaign ever mounted by an African-American candidate, said Wednesday that he had no interest in sharing a ticket with McBride … "
"At the same time, key Democratic fundraisers who had been wary of pouring money into a Florida governor's race featuring the well-heeled Bush and the controversial Reno prepared Wednesday to jump back into the fray with McBride topping the ticket."
The impact of all of this on Jeb Bush's re-election prospects can't be known until the dust settles.
On the one hand (there are a lot of hands on hand in The Note today), some Democrats, led by the state party, are pushing this latest vote-count debacle as Bush's fault for not providing enough money to hire and train election workers.
On the other hand, some Democrats fear that by pushing the idea that this election got screwed up, they will be tainting their own nominee by casting him or her as the product of a flawed election.
One near-certainty is that Democratic voters in Florida will get energized over this new round of voting chaos to a degree we doubt cries of "Remember 2000" would have achieved.
And Governor Bush's cavalier dismissal of Reno's voting problems on Tuesday is likely to further boost that sentiment.
Bush was yesterday at once apparently defiant and concerned, which is, come to think of it, the way he often is.
"I don't know exactly what the powers I have to do this, but I guarantee you that in November, the election will run much more smoothly than the supervisors of election allowed to occur [Tuesday]," Bush said Wednesday.
"It's not an embarrassment to me,' he said. 'It should be an embarrassment to the people running elections in Miami and Broward Counties. They should be embarrassed and they better fix it.'"
Adam Nagourney spends some of Howell's money to parachute into Ft. Lauderdale to analyze the whole thing: "Suddenly, as even Mr. Bush's advisers acknowledged today, Florida was on the verge of becoming a national joke again, and Democrats were asking why it was that that Mr. Bush's government unable to fix what was clearly a major problem in the way his state was run … " LINK
We get to hear from Klain, Cardenas, Poe, and McManus in this one, all playing their assigned roles, such as the Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the Sunshine State saying, "Janet Reno has said from the beginning that for Democrats to win the governor's chair, that Democrats in Florida have to have a presidential level turnout … And this is going to be rallying point for them."
"The uncertainty dampens a remarkable come-from-behind surge by McBride, a political unknown who seemed on the verge of a major upset," says the Washington Post .
LINK
The Wall Street Journal ed board criticizes Governor Jeb: "Mr. Bush also responded to complaints by keeping the polls open two hours later than planned, but this strikes us as a bad precedent, changing rules in the middle of the game and creating opportunities for mischief."
The Miami Herald 's "BLAME" editorial doesn't mention Bush, and blames the two Democratic election supervisors of Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
LINK
The Herald also has an excellent look at the "interlocking" snafu strands that jammed up the system yesterday: faulty equipment, redistricting maps, surly poll workers, poorly trained poll workers, insufficient technical support, poorly trained poll workers, and, oh yes, poorly trained poll workers.
LINK
On Today this morning, Secretary of State Smith said that most counties "did a great job" and said "these counties" (i.e., Miami-Dade and Broward) did a "totally unacceptable" job. "I don't think incompetence is too strong a word to use," he said. (He seemed unmoved by Katie's attempt to warmly remind him that she covered him back in her days as a Miami local reporter.)
The St. Pete Times reports that the Department of Justice is looking into the matter, though probably not because US Commission on Civil Rights chair Mary Frances Berry asked them to.
LINK
Speaking of the Department of Justice and elections: tomorrow, as you'll recall, Rev. Jesse Jackson and others will lead a march to the DOJ to protest Attorney General John Ashcroft and his staff for a host of alleged maladies. This election is probably grist for that mill
Governor Bush will be in Miami this morning for a Chamber of Commerce event on education.
At 10:00 am, state GOP chair Al Cardenas holds a news conference in Orlando. At 12:25 p.m., Bush is scheduled to appear on WTVT in Tampa.
Bush and Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan head to the small town where one Note writer went to elementary school, Maitland, for a 3:35 p.m. news conference on education.
As we said, any public schedule for McBride and Reno is TBD.
This storm is hurricane strength now. Imagine what it would be
like if Katherine Harris still ran elections?
As Noted above, when President Bush addresses the United Nations today, Congress will be listening. "Efforts to win congressional support are having mixed results," the AP says. "The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said Wednesday that he did not think the time had run out for diplomacy. Moving alone against Iraq would be the worst option, said Senator Joseph Biden, D-Del … "
LINK
"Some Democrats questioned the White House's urgency to oust Saddam."
"Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., planned to depart for Iraq on Wednesday to inquire about the possibility of U.S. negotiations with Baghdad. Rahall said that he supported the intervention of the U.S.-led coalition that liberated Kuwait from Iraqi control 11 years ago. But this time, he said, 'I have a lot of unanswered questions.'"
"Senator Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., told Fox television that while there is support to remove Saddam, 'The question is how do we get it done, at what cost.'"
The Post 's Balz notes that with his speech today, Bush "will face a series of questions that will once again test his capacity for leadership."
LINK
"Bush is a simplifier by nature, and he demonstrated the value of providing a clarity of purpose a year ago when he outlined the first phase of a war on terrorism. But a Democrat who gives Bush high marks for how he handled things last year said he worried that Iraq presents Bush with a challenge 'that doesn't play to all his strengths.'"
Election Reform
Not surprisingly, the Florida debacle has yielded lots of newspaper coverage of whether it just might jump-start the election reform legislation currently stalled in Congress …
… like this Washington Post headline, with the Dewar byline: "A New Life for Election Bill?"
LINK
But the looming congressional recess may stand in the way of anything getting passed this year. As Roll Call 's Keller notes, "Republicans indicated that the prospects for a deal on election reform legislation at this late hour seem dim."
LINK
In the other vote-count hotspot from Tuesday, Montgomery County, MD elections "officials said yesterday that they will send more than 3,200 election judges back to training and update the county's computerized voting system before November's general election, to prevent a repeat of a chaotic primary night when some inadequately prepared judges took hours to download and tally precinct votes," the Washington Post reports.
LINK
Iraq Politics
The Wall Street Journal on A4 adds to the "Senator Hagel gives Bob Kerrey a run for his money on positive press" clip file, looking at the vet's influence over the Iraq debate.
And the very same Bob Kerrey, in the very same paper, writes on the op-ed page in support of liberating Iraq.
Dick Morris' New York Post column allows him to repeat again his same point over again one more time — that the Democrats shot themselves in the foot by begging for the Iraq debate.
LINK
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary
The Washington Post has this to say about state Senator Chris Van Hollen's upset of state Del. Mark Shriver in Maryland's 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on Tuesday: "Members of former vice president Al Gore's staff called to offer help. So did his ticket-mate in the 2000 presidential election, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.). House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) phoned … Members of Congress who had supported Shriver, such as … Senator John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), quickly shifted gears."
LINK
Ralph Nader: you've got company. Outgoing Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney tells friends she's considering a run for president in 2004 on the Green Party ticket. Interestingly, the Atlanta Journal Constitution's article doesn't say what the national Greens think of it.
LINK
Politics
The Washington Post 's Broder examines the question of who won Tuesday's round of primaries. Republicans are pleased with their margins of victory in New Hampshire and North Carolina, but Democrats claimed to be heartened that their more-competitive Tar Heel primary produced greater turnout than did that of the GOP, in what could be a promising sign for the party in the future.
LINK
New Hampshire Republicans held their unity breakfast this morning, featuring Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot, who heads from the Granite State to Connecticut for a media availability and an award dinner.
Senator Bob Smith won't attend the New Hampshire event — but it's not about sour grapes, his campaign swears. http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=14082
We suspect that the New York Times ' Carl Hulse did not spend election night with GOP Senate campaign committee Bigs Mitch and Chris if he could write this lead: "Republicans were not popping open bottles of champagne to celebrate the humiliating primary defeat on Tuesday of their fellow Republican, Senator Robert C. Smith of New Hampshire. But they were not lamenting the loss either."
LINK
If they weren't drinking champagne, it was only because they couldn't find any.
That item leads today's installment of the new New York Times ' political dot-dot-dot column "Campaign Season," which today also includes items on Mark Shriver's loss, Charlie Rangel's efforts to turn out African-American votes nationwide, Louisiana election law, the anti-McBride ads, and some anti-Susan Collins AFL-CIO spots going up today.
Which reminds us to tell you: some Democrats and/or their affiliated interest groups are still trying to put the Maine, Oregon, Tennessee, and South Carolina Senate seats in play. Republicans are still today doing the same in Georgia, Montana, Louisiana, and, depending on what day it is, Iowa.
Roll Call spotlights a couple of blows for Democrats' prospects of recapturing control of the House in Tuesday's primaries, when their strongest candidates failed to win the nominations in key Arizona and North Carolina districts.
LINK
Tom Daschle apparently gave such a moving call for his colleagues to funnel more cash to the Democratic Senate campaign committee that he even got Senator Byrd out of his seat, per Roll Call 's Preston and Kane. "Byrd, who has long shunned a public fundraising role, pledged to begin making fundraising calls from the DSCC headquarters, according to Senators and Democratic aides."
LINK
"The DSCC has been particularly appreciative of Senate Democrats who have reached into their own pockets to pump money into the committee's building fund, a soft-money account that is being predominantly used to finance the purchase of the new headquarters for the DSCC, at 120 Maryland Ave."
Speaking of campaign finance, the Voting Rights Institute's request for a document search in the offices of the leading sponsors of McCain-Feingold-etc. has been denied, per Roll Call 's Chappie.
LINK
All national party campaign committees like to crow whenever their counterpart has to take an ad off the air because of inaccuracies, or even just the whiff of an inaccuracy. This week it's the GOP House campaign committee's turn to be gleeful over a Democratic party ad running in the South Bend, IN-based 2nd district "coming down," as they say in the bidness, because of the ad's suggestion that the GOP candidate had ties to "Enron, WorldCom and potential illegal corporate activity," according to one letter from a local station.
Is this the first time the word "wuss" has ever appeared (and so often) in the New York Times Magazine? In another upcoming clip for the Mudcat 'n Steve scrapbook, Democrats may object to Matt Bai's assertion that their candidates in rural states and districts "are running away from their own party, and hard," and argue instead that their party is just big and inclusive.
But Bai does a great job of getting at the colorful, politically detached demographic that is America's rural vote, and what drives them — or doesn't — to favor Democrats. One thing we hadn't really focused on: that the team primarily responsible for electing Virginia Gov. Mark Warner has since been advising candidates ASIDE from John Edwards. (Hey Matt, by the way: he's not just "Bill" Elliott — he's Awesome Bill from Dawsonville.)
The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's annual legislative conference (sponsored in part by Comcast), which continues today, includes several must-see events for politicos.
At 10:00 am, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, Rev. Jesse Jackson and others headline a National Town Hall meeting on African-Americans and homeland security.
At 12 noon, Rep. Corrine Brown (who represents, incidentally, parts of Duval County in Florida) will lead a three-hour symposium on election reform.
At 2:00 p.m., today, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. will host a panel on homeland security that features Senator John Kerry.
Tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., Ford hosts a panel featuring soon-to-be Democratic Rep. Artur Davis (AL-7), almost-Newark Mayor Cory Booker, and not-just-her-mother's-son Rep. Kendrick Meeks, and several other "new leaders" in American politics.
And outgoing Rep. Earl Hilliard hosts a forum on African-Americans and the Middle East at the Washington Convention Center.
Two substance stories in the New York Times with political implications on welfare reform in the Senate — LINK — and mayoral control of schools in Cleveland and elsewhere. LINK
California
A judge is scheduled to say today whether or not the $78 million fraud judgment against Bill Simon's family firm will stand.
New York
The major-party candidates in the gubernatorial race are bracing for more Golisano TV ads.
LINK
The New York Post gets a "top Golisano insider" to say that the man will spend not the previously-quoted $75 million, but more like $100 million total to win this thing, which would be the most ever in a non-presidential race. LINK
That would mean about $70 million more on the sprint of a general election we have left.
The Daily News puts the number a little lower, but the point is the same: this guy ain't planning to hold back. LINK
Sure, there are arguments to be made the Golisano will draw some of the anti-Pataki vote away from Democrat McCall, but a lot of the millionaire's money will be spent attacking Pataki, and at least some of the Golisano vote will come from Republicans, and surely neither of those things can be good for the Governor.
Under the header "Republican Panic," Fred Dicker's Post column makes this "new day, new race" argument, transforming the still-shaky McCall effort into a dynamo of campaign efficiency and magic through a few keystrokes, and making the more solid point about Pataki's issue vulnerability: "Prominent upstate Republicans say Pataki is vulnerable to Golisano's messages on a wide range of issues, including the relatively poor upstate economy, sharply rising property taxes, widening local budget deficits, greener-than-green environmentalism and his strong support for even tighter gun-control laws." LINK
But just how much colluding can/could take place between the Golisano and McCall forces before somebody, somewhere does something about it?
And just how much of the Hispanic vote can McCall/Ferrer et al reclaim from the pro-Vieques, pro-Dennis-Rivera incumbent? That might actually decide this race.
New Jersey
A Star-Ledger/Eagleton survey shows Senator Bob Torricelli (D) and GOP challenger Doug Forrester running about even. LINK
New Hampshire
Roll Call 's Rothenberg ponders the prospect of a GOP "clean sweep" of the governorship, the Senate seat, and both congressional districts.
LINK
The Boston Globe looks at GOP gubernatorial nominee Craig Benson's massive, arguably un-Yankee spending. "Benson's spending — assuming he keeps it up between now and November — some now speculate is on pace to outstrip the per-vote record in a general election held by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who spent nearly $100 per vote — a total of $75 million — to win the New York mayor's race in 2000."
LINK
Arkansas
The AFL-CIO is adding its several million cents to the crowded airwaves in the Senate race. Two sources confirm that a spot entitled "Away Hutchinson" will air in three markets across the state beginning today and continuing for at least 10 days.
"Away Hutchison" focuses on the Republican incumbent's opposition to Clinton-era ergonomics standards.
This is first of several big, early-season ad buys for the AFL-CIO. They plan a series of campaigns in several states with ads on corporate accountability and ergonomics standards.
One source pegs the size of the buy at about $150,000.
Arizona
Democrats see an opportunity to win four of eight House seats this year — all four with Hispanic candidates. LINK
Minnesota
There are two ways to look at election results: votes and percentages. What might the number of votes cast by Minnesotans in Tuesday's gubernatorial primary say about November 5?
LINK
Massachusetts
Political junkies have been amused by the battle for the GOP's lieutenant governor nomination between James Rappaport and Mitt Romney pick Kerry Murphy Healey, but the Boston Globe actually finds a bigger meaning to it: "the two candidates are fighting not only for the office, but for the soul of the state party. Rappaport, the conservative who was rejected as a running mate by two successive candidates for governor, can claim many of the party hardliners who think the GOP should spell out ideological differences with the Democrats, unapologetically. Healey, meanwhile, is following the route forged by Romney — a down-the-middle path traveled by the moderate Republican governors."
LINK
Washington, D.C.
The counting of the write-in ballots is well underway, with the CW being a comfy victory for Mayor Anthony Williams.
LINK
North Carolina
Democratic Senate nominee Erskine Bowles is rejecting GOP opponent Elizabeth Dole's proposal to forgo campaign ads in favor of broadcasting debates, launching an ad on trade this morning.
LINK
There once was a guy named Erskine Bowles in the Clinton White House who fought hammer-and-tong for free trade agreements, but this guy running in North Carolina must be a DIFFERENT Erskine Bowles, what with "Erskine" being such a common name down there.
South Carolina
"The S.C. GOP criticized Gov. Jim Hodges on its Web site Wednesday, two days after three prominent Republicans slammed a Democrat for running a "negative" ad before the Sept. 11 anniversary. Republican Party chairman Katon Dawson … said he didn't intend for it to appear Wednesday — the anniversary of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington … By 7 p.m., the press release, which criticized Hodges' handling of the state budget, had been removed from the Web site."
LINK
Bush Administration Strategy/Personality
The Washington Post 's Allen and Milbank write that the September 11 anniversary "could hardly have been more different from that infamous day a year ago for George W. Bush. Then, he was whisked aboard Air Force One between military installations as if he were being hunted, improvising his day without having control over its events. Today brought ceremony, a White House effort synchronized to the second to present Bush as a leader in command, alternately mournful, compassionate, angry and determined."
LINK
We consider Rush Limbaugh one of the greatest radio entertainers of all time. It would be a high honor and rare privilege if we could utter the words "Mega dittos, Rush," somewhere besides in front of the bathroom mirror.
So it is with nothing but the utmost respect that we wade back into what has been a week-long engagement for about, say, 30 people in the nation, on whether and when Vice President Cheney will appear on El Rushbo's program during this September 11 week.
On Monday, Rush said Cheney would be on September 11 itself, in his only radio interview of the day, as brokered by Rush's close personal friend, Mary Matalin.
On Tuesday, Terry McAuliffe, Bill Buck, and other Democrats went nuts, saying that doing such an interview (with a man they consider evil and hyper-partisan) was inappropriate on the anniversary of the attacks.
Well, the interview was scrapped, which seemed odd to us, given Mary and Rush's shared to-the-mattresses attitude.
Check out Rush's website posting from yesterday for what he claims the reason was, under the headline: "Cheney Will Do Show Despite McAuliffe":
LINK
"Folks, we were supposed to have Vice President Dick Cheney on the program today, we actually confirmed it yesterday morning, and then it was cancelled yesterday afternoon, because of the threat situation. The vice president's status is secure and unknown today and therefore they didn't want to make him available, but we've rescheduled the interview. The interview has been rescheduled, and we'll confirm it the day before just to make sure nothing's changed, but it should happen some time this week."
That is some insecure secure location, if the terrorists can tell where Cheney does phoners from.
Thus, let us get this straight: Cheney cancelled the interview not because of the pressure from the Democrats, but because of security reasons, but he'll be able to do the show safely tomorrow?!
No offense at all meant to you, Ms. Millerwise, but this is one of the days when we would have LOVED to hear the explanation of young mother Juleanna Glover-Weiss.
Lloyd Grove's Washington Post account only muddies things up: "Rush to Judgment? After Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe pummeled Vice President Cheney for scheduling a Sept. 11 appearance on Rush Limbaugh's radio show, the booking was changed to tomorrow. 'It should be a day free from partisanship and divisiveness,' McAuliffe declared after learning of the booking from ABC News's political tip sheet, the Note. 'Unfortunately, Vice President Cheney has chosen to do an interview . . . with one of the most partisan and divisive figures in American politics.' Yesterday, Cheney adviser Mary Matalin responded: 'Personally, I had higher hopes for my friend Terry's leadership of the loyal opposition. His not-inconsiderable skills would be better applied to helping his party sort through the difficult issues we face as a country, as we plan to do with Limbaugh and his 25 million serious citizen listeners on Friday.'"
Liz Smith gets a preview of an upcoming W piece on W's Washington, and if it were coming out on any other day, in any other week, the Sally Quinn quote alone would cause quite a splash.
LINK
"Susan Watters has written a piece titled 'The Big Chill,' stating that 'two years into Bush's first term, Washington's social scene is near death — and the natives are restless … '"
"Glamour is, of course, gone from D.C. Pizzazz is dormant. Wretched excess won't rear its tiny head. This is not post 9/11 doldrums, according to W. The Bush clique simply doesn't want to party, get dressed up in black tie, meet new people or lure fabulous famous types to big state dinners. The result, according to the capital's reigning hostess, Sally Quinn is 'Washington, as we know it, is over . . . the social scene has come to a screeching halt … '"
"The Bushies are cozy, but that's not what Tout Washington wants from its chief executive and first lady. Even Bush supporters complain about the shut down and shut out."
The Economy/Budget Politics
Per the Wall Street Journal : "The economic recovery has lost momentum, with growth in manufacturing activity and consumer spending slowing to a crawl in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve's latest survey of business conditions has found."
Also in the Journal, all this is going to hit the president and the Congress, but also the governors and the state legislatures big time: "While Congress considers tax cuts, many states face pressures to raise taxes."
"A report to be issued soon underscores the severity of state-budget woes. According to the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany, N.Y., state-tax revenues tumbled 10.4% in the April-to-June quarter from a year earlier. That was the largest quarterly drop since the institute began keeping score in 1991 and the fourth quarterly decline in a row … "
"'This sustained revenue decline, which appears to be accelerating, is causing widespread and severe stress in state budgets across the country,' Mr. Jenny reports. He paints a grim outlook: There is 'little in the underlying collections data or the employment situation to suggest that the revenue situation is going to get much better in the near future … '"
"With elections looming in early November, lawmakers are struggling to avoid even discussing the possibility of tax increases. Instead, states have been dipping into rainy-day funds, cutting spending and raising excise taxes, notably those on cigarettes, says Corina Eckl, fiscal program director at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver … "
"Mr. Jenny's new report strongly indicates that states are running out of options and that more eventually will focus closely on tax increases … "
"Budget woes are so deep and widespread that tax-increase talk appears inevitable."
Gary Andres writes in the Washington Times , "Bracing for the worst, many congressional insiders fear the tricky nuances of split-party control and learning curve problems will lead to a train-wreck on year-end spending issues in the next few weeks."
LINK
— 9:45 am, Senate meets to consider appropriations and homeland security
— 9:45 am, President Bush courtesy call with United Nations Secretary-General Annan, NYC
— 10:00 am, Fed chief Alan Greenspan testifies on the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee
— Sept. 11-14: Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's 32nd Annual Legislative Conference, DC — Sept. 12-14: United Nations General Assembly meets, New York
— Sept. 13: NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton fundraises for Maine Senate candidate Chellie Pingree, Portland — Sept. 14: Former Vice President Al Gore addresses CBC Legislative Conference, DC
— Sept. 13-14: Georgia Republican Party "Road to Majority" conference, Augusta — Sept. 13: Former President Clinton campaigns for MI gubernatorial candidate Jennifer Granholm and others, Michigan
— Sept. 13: Rev. Jesse Jackson, others lead march against Justice Department, DC — Sept. 13: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigns for ME Senate candidate Chellie Pingree
— Sept. 13: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigns for Rep. Patrick Kennedy, RI
— Sept. 13: Indiana House candidates Jill Long Thompson and Chris Chocola debate, La Porte — Sept. 13: Retail sales figure for August due, 8:30 a.m.
— Sept. 13: Indiana House candidates Jill Long Thompson and Chris Chocola debate, South Bend
— Sept. 15-16: Yom Kippur — Sept. 16-17: Rep. Dick Gephardt visits New Hampshire — Sept. 16: Montana Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 17: Massachusetts primary (Democratic primary for governor)
— Sept. 17: President Bush campaigns for Lamar Alexander, Nashville
— Sept. 18: Former President H.W. Bush headlines fundraiser for GOP Senate nominee Lamar Alexander, TN
— Sept. 18: NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hosts fundraiser at her home for Iowa House candidate Julie Thomas, DC — Sept. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for August due at 8:30 a.m.
— Sept. 19: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate, Happy Valley, Penn. — Sept. 19: Housing starts report for August due at 8:30 a.m.
— Sept 19: Vice President Dick Cheney fundraises for Vermont Republican Party — Sept.19: Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle keynotes League of Conservation Voters DC Dinner
— Sept. 20: Filing date for FEC August monthly reports
—Sept. 20-22: Sen. John Edwards hosts retreat, Pinehurst, North Carolina. — Sept. 22: Colorado Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 22: 4th Annual Great North Woods Lumberjack Championships, Berlin, New Hampshire
— Sept. 23: New York State Democratic Party "reorganization" meeting, Syracuse
— Sept. 23: Montana Senate candidates debate
— (tentative) Sept 27: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate, Jacksonville
— Sept. 23: President Bush campaigns for Senate candidate Doug Forrester, New Jersey
— Sept. 24: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets
— Sept. 24: Consumer Confidence figure for September due at 8:30 a.m.
— Sept. 25: Sen. John F. Kerry appears at Christian Science Monitor breakfast
— Sept. 25: President Bush fundraises for National Republican Senatorial Committee, New York
— Sept. 26: New home sales figures for August due
— Sept. 26: President Bush fundraises for TX Senate candidate John Cornyn
— Sept. 27: Final 2nd Quarter GDP figure due
— Sept. 27-29: California Republican Party convention — Sept. 27-29: National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling convention, Dallas
— Sept. 29: DCCC mega-fundraiser, hosted by Rep. Dick Gephardt and featuring Barbra Streisand, Los Angeles
— Sept. 29: Rudy Giuliani fundraises for gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan (R), Illinois
— Sept. 30: Discovery ends in McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative). — Sept. 30: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 30: 401(k) statements begin to roll out. — Sept. 30: Third quarter campaign finance period closes
— Sept. 30: Statement from Vice President Cheney is due to judge in Judicial Watch/Halliburton lawsuit, Houston — Oct. 1: Federal pre-general campaign finance period begins
— Oct. 4: Al Sharpton's birthday — Oct. 4: Employment data from September due
— Oct. 5: Tri-state's Largest Chili Cook-Off, Dubuque, Iowa
— Oct. 5: Sen. Chris Dodd keynotes Ohio Democratic Party dinner — Oct. 5: Iowa Democratic Party Jefferson/Jackson dinner, keynoted by Gov. Howard Dean and Sen. John Kerry.
— Oct. 5: Colorado Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 6: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Charleston
—Oct; 6: 30 day residency requirement deadline for voters in many states
— Oct. 7: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
#151; Oct. 7: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 7: California gubernatorial candidates debate — Oct. 9: Democratic National Committee hosts Get-Out-The-Vote concert, with musicians and the Clintons in attendence, DC — Oct. 9: Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 11: Retail sales figure for September due
— Oct. 11: Congress target date for adjournment.
—Oct. 11-12: Christian Coalition's "God Bless America—One Nation Under God Road to Victory 2002" conference, DC
— Oct. 12: Sen. John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live, New York
— Oct. 13: Iowa State Hand-Cornhusking contest, Kimballton, Iowa
— Oct. 13: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 13: Illinois Senate candidates debate
— (tentative) Oct. 14: Arkansas Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 15: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct: 15: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Moorehead
— Oct. 16: Federal pre-general campaign finance period ends
— Oct. 17: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Rochester
— Oct. 18: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate — Oct. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for September due
— Oct. 18: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Clemson — Oct. 18: New Hampshire Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with Sen. John Edwards as host
— Oct. 20: South Carolina Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Alabama gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Tennessee Senate candidates debate — Oct. 21: Index of leading economic indicators for September figure due
— Oct. 21: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Minnesota Senate candidates debate, St. Cloud
— Oct. 22: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Pre-general campaign finance report due to FEC
— Oct. 24: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Missouri Senate candidates debate — Oct. 25: League of Conservation Voters — Oct. 25: Durable goods orders, new home sales and existing home sales figures due
— Oct. 25: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Columbia
— Oct. 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
— Oct. 28: Minnesota Senate candidates debate — Oct. 30: (tenative) South Dakota Senate candidates debate
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma — Oct. 31: Estimate of Third Quarter GDP is released — Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due — Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
— Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative). — Nov. 5: Election Day — Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure rules go into effect
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego
— Nov. 17: Vermont Governor Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 18: Moussaoui trial: jury questionnaire distributed
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due.
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: Moussaoui trial voir dire: jury voir dire
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Governor. Gray Davis's birthday
— Jan 6, 2003: Opening arguments (tenative) for Moussaoui trial
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
— Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday — Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Governor Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday
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