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Of course, this could have been Davis' pro forma response to a question about a House race where the GOP may be nervous about their chances.

But the fact is, somewhat surprisingly, Republicans are making a greater effort than Democrats to nationalize the midterm elections, and they're doing it around the polling strength of President Bush, and around the war.

At the same time, Bush, having used the bully pulpit to try to browbeat Democrats over Iraq, is now using it on homeland security, on defense spending, and on spending generally.

Democrats have pretty much capitulated on a vote on an Iraq resolution, with questions remaining about the wording and "UN vote first versus no UN vote first," but they're still resisting on homeland security, on which Bush repeated his veto threat yesterday, and on defense spending, on which Bush called yesterday for them not to "play politics."

We keep coming back to this question: why are Republicans, no matter how the election turns out, almost certain to defy the midterm trend of the president's party losing a bunch of Senate and House seats?

Some minor, technical reasons contribute to the answer, but in the main, the perception and reality is: because of the president's wartime popularity, which he seems — despite his desire to spend time at home — willing to spread around through rigorous political travel to all the key states and districts all the way through election day.

Despite Senate Majority Leader Daschle's expected speech this morning, and various Washington-driven Democratic message efforts planned over the next few weeks, Democrats seem more inclined to NOT nationalize the election, but to try on an almost subterranean level to simply work their issues (Social Security, health care, etc.) on a race-by-race basis.

Democrats' assumption, or hope, is that while the national press and the president are creating a Potemkin Village environment out of Iraq, and all the news analysis pieces focus on Republican attempts to use the war to their advantage, voters nevertheless will vote on their (pocketbook) issues.

Alison Mitchell stays where she has been: on the cutting edge of how war and the election are interacting, and thus pens a total must-read for today's New York Times . LINK

Ms. Mitchell looks at those Council for a Livable World ads (on which The Note continues to try to hide its position but, hint: they are no better — or worse — than Social Security demagoguery), and stages a mini-debate between two worthy adversaries, which we reproduce here in toto, because it is VERY key on at least three levels we can think of:

"With Democrats complaining that the Iraq debate is being politicized, Ginny Wolfe, a spokeswoman for the Republican campaign committee, called voting records on military issues a critical part of the political debate. She accused Democrats of trying to hide their stances."

"'These issues are not just legitimate issues for discussion,' Ms. Wolfe said, 'they are critical issues for discussion. What can be more important for voters to understand than all of the candidates' positions on military and national defense in a time of war?'"

(Note note: good point!)

"Democrats vowed that such advertisements would not go unanswered."

"'Impugning the patriotism of Democrats is Page 1 in the Republican playbook,' said James M. Jordan, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 'We intend to counterpunch on this.'"

(Note note: rousing, ominous point!)

Under perhaps a slightly too strong headline (the words "seek to" could've been inserted … ), the Washington Post 's VandeHei writes up "an emerging GOP campaign to turn a possible war against Iraq into a political weapon back home." LINK

"Across the country, GOP House and Senate candidates are emphasizing the possibility of war in Iraq, either touting their support for Bush or highlighting their opponents' reservations — past or present — about military strikes against the Baghdad regime, according to several candidates and party strategists."

But the The Street Journal says that Senator Daschle is planning his own paradigm-shifting brunch on the Hill this morning after his breakfast down the street:

"Eager to shift the election-year political debate from war to the economy, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle will launch a sweeping assault on President Bush's fiscal policies, blaming the White House for problems ranging from the falling stock market to a rise in property foreclosures."

"In a Senate floor speech he plans to make following a breakfast meeting with Mr. Bush, Mr. Daschle (D., S.D.) is expected to say the president's policies are responsible for U.S. job losses, weak growth, declining business investment, shrinking retirement accounts, an erosion in consumer confidence, rising health-care costs, vanishing budget surpluses and record executive pay … "

Dr. Frist, the head of the Republican Senate election effort, does his best Tom Davis politician-as-political-analyst imitation. Just like Davis, Frist is pretty wise on this stuff: "It's smart of Daschle to try to shift the focus,' Mr. Frist said. 'But I think Democrats have this inherent disadvantage. We don't need a platform of 20 different things.'"

And, pegged (we believe, since it isn't made clear) to Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe's no-longer-Sperling breakfast remarks this morning, USA Today 's Lawrence writes, "Democrats will focus relentlessly on the economy for the next six weeks with a barrage of speeches, news conferences and attention-getters tied to unemployment numbers and 401(k) statements. They have a detailed action plan designed to wrest control of the fall agenda from President Bush, who is putting possible war with Iraq front and center." LINK

"Hundreds of candidates in all 50 states will mark Sept. 30, the end of the third quarter and the day voters will start to look for retirement account statements in the mail. Other key dates include Oct. 4 and Nov. 1, when jobless rates are released."

"With Bush focused on Iraq, Democrats are pressing domestic issues that are their traditional strengths: corporate abuses, Social Security, pensions, prescription drug benefits, jobs and the economy. This week:
-- McAuliffe outlines the strategy today for reporters.
-- Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle critiques President Bush's economic record on the Senate floor, possibly as soon as today.
-- The Campaign for America's Future releases state-by-state studies of 401(k) losses. The labor-backed research group issues its Connecticut report today at a Groton hotel during an appearance there by Vice President Cheney."

Here's our own, real-time reporting from the event (a first, we believe, for the Breakfast Formerly Known As Sperling): a sources says that McAuliffe at this hour is unveiling a "new" strategy to "allow" Democrats to take back the issues initiative.

Pegged to those unemployment and 401(k) numbers, McAuliffe is hitting on pension reform, Social Security, and other domestic issues to say what he thinks this election SHOULD be about, and will be about for the voters.

McAuliffe says it isn't surprising that some Republicans will try to use the war as a political issue.

He is also touting a Florida Democratic Party poll showing McBride within five points of Gov. Jeb Bush, and Jeb at 48 percent, which, Democrats who are good at math point out, is under 50 percent. The poll allegedly shows McBride to be unknown to 25 percent of Floridians, allowing room for growth.

Republicans are likely to dispute the validity of this poll, but Democrats are sure to raise money off of it.

Among the pencils sighted at the breakfast: luminaries Wagner, Nagourney, Zeleny, and Edsall. Jill Lawrence is also there, and if any of these reporters had lifestyles that let them read USA Today before 8:00 am breakfasts, we're certain that some of them would be glaring at Jill for her scoop.

Despite the president's suddenly laid-on photo op, the congressional leaders in the driveway, and the now-de rigueur Gephardt/Lott CNN/FNC appearances, we don't at this writing have a perfect feel for what went on at the White House meeting this morning.

However, according to one source familiar with the meeting, the president and the MOCs agreed to work in a bipartisan way to get a resolution that would get a big, bipartisan vote in both chambers.

The president told the members that he was optimistic on getting a "robust" UN resolution. Everyone agreed that getting a congressional recess by October 11 was really important, with the Iraq vote likely right before that.

President Bush has a couple of other events at the White House today, while his dad campaigns for Lamar Alexander in Knoxville, TN and his Vice President raises money for a Connecticut congressman.

"[M]any Democrats are likely to resist giving Bush unchecked authority" on Iraq, the Los Angeles Times ' Hook notes. LINK

The New York Times says that Senator John Breaux (D-Fun 'n' Hot) planned to pitch a homeland security department labor compromise to the president at the meeting this morning at the White House. LINK

And the Los Angeles Times ' Gerstenzang has a good look at the defense spending fight. LINK

Florida's Elections Canvassing Commission will certify Bill McBride as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee at 10:00 am today; half an hour later, McBride will announce his running mate. Let the general election campaign begin.

Former Vice President Gore's Florida schedule today has expanded a bit — he'll now do several events, some of them open press, before leaving the state this afternoon.

After yesterday's primaries, Massachusetts Democrats are now fielding the state's first elected woman nominee for governor in state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, who defeated former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich and two other candidates despite an onslaught of attacks on her management of the state's pension fund.

The Washington Post 's Broder calls O'Brien's fight against anointed GOP nominee Mitt Romney "uphill." LINK

"In another major victory for O'Brien, her chosen running mate, Chris Gabrieli, a wealthy venture capitalist who spent about $4 million to win the nomination, handily defeated his two rivals. He is expected to tap his personal fortune for the campaign, providing a critical boost to O'Brien as she faces the well-funded Romney." LINK

Romney got his victory last night, too, in the form of a decisive win for his chosen running mate, Kerry Murphy Healey, over a more conservative, white male businessman candidate who might have made for an awkward ticket. "The vote was seen as a referendum not only on Romney — who had strongly backed Healey — but the direction of the party." LINK

Politics of Iraq: In "Iraq Meets the Invisible Primary," Ron Brownstein tracks Bush's aspiring Democratic challengers on Iraq in today's Los Angeles Times : "In rapid succession, the leading Democrats considering a race against George W. Bush in 2004 are lining up behind the president's push for possible military action against Iraq." LINK

Brownstein scores a little Gore news.

"Since Bush's speech last week to the United Nations, Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.) have made clear they would back the use of force against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, while House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) has suggested he would, as well."

"Sources close to former Vice President Al Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, say he will shortly endorse the prospect of military action. Even Senator John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), who has consistently raised questions about a potential strike against Iraq, appears to be moving toward supporting force, sources close to him say."

"This hawkish consensus could leave an opening for a so-called peace candidate in the developing Democratic race. At the moment, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who's openly exploring a presidential candidacy, appears the most likely … "

"That could help him gain a foothold in Iowa, site of the first caucus in January 2004 and traditionally a state where antiwar sentiments run high among Democratic activists. But, on both substantive and political grounds, most leading Democrats appear to have concluded that opposing action against Hussein could be an insurmountable burden to carry into a 2004 race."

"[S]ources close to Gore say he is planning to declare support for military action, but to urge that the United States act with a coalition of allies."

"Aides say all indications are that Kerry will support a resolution authorizing Bush to use force against Iraq, even if the Senate, as is likely, rejects his two-stage authorization idea."

Dean, in an interview Tuesday, said flatly that he did not believe Bush has made 'the case that we need to invade Iraq.'"

The "Barbara Lee had it right" chorus is beginning in the Bay Area, the San Francisco Chronicle reports. A handful of Democrats from that cool clime are considering voting "no" on a war resolution. LINK

David Broder has decided that "the pointed questions [Senator Chuck] Hagel has been asking for weeks about the Bush administration's evident eagerness to invade Iraq may carry more weight with colleagues of both parties and the public than most of the skeptical muttering one hears." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31681-2002Sep17.html

"Hagel, who is up for reelection to a second term this year, is as safe politically as any candidate can be, but he readily acknowledges that some of his constituents have a hard time understanding why he is not simply cheerleading for the president."

The Florida Vote

Give a great reporter a little time off from daily responsibilities and this is what you get: Kit Seelye in the New York Times steps back from the daily Florida maw and nails the "what went wrong in Florida" story very nicely, for those of you who haven't had time to read the Florida papers every day for a week (as if). LINK

Basically: too much change too fast, and not enough training in the problem counties.

And we aren't subtracting points for the fact that KQ quotes Conny B. McCormack (http://regrec.co.la.ca.us/connybio.htm), the very same veteran Los Angeles election official who went to Florida last Tuesday to observe, and is now advocating paper ballots during a transition to high tech, and who we pre-interviewed for our Sunday TV spot (but didn't get on camera), and who, by the way, the Washington Post happened to quote in THEIR story over the weekend. LINK

The Miami Herald seems convinced that McBride's running mate really is state Senator Tom Rossin. LINK

The AP agrees.

The St. Pete Times, which broke Rossin's impending selection yesterday, has the best sampling of reaction:

"What's his name again?" asked Chuck Floyd, Democratic chairman in Alachua County, where McBride beat Janet Reno by a more than 2-1 ratio. 'The question is, how will he do in South Florida?'" LINK

"'It's going to be very difficult for me to run around with two elderly white male lawyers and go into my churches and inspire them,'" said state Rep. Chris Smith, D-Fort Lauderdale, who supported Bush in 1998 but later renounced his support. 'If he picks Rossin, it's very disappointing, but I wholeheartedly support him.'"

The Orlando Sentinel feels out how Janet Reno might help McBride on the campaign trail. LINK

The Herald what-ifs Reno's decision to (mostly) refuse soft money help from the state party. LINK

How will Dade County try to prevent November 5 from being like September 10? By training more than 1,700 county workers to serve as troubleshooters. LINK

Election Reform

At GOP Senate nominee Greg Ganske's fundraising event last night featuring Vice President Cheney, The Note asked Senator Kit Bond about his favorite topic, and ours: election reform.

Bond, who thinks motor voter registration is so rife with malfeasance that he doesn't let a day go by without decrying "Auto Fraud-o," didn't sound too confident that a compromise would be reached anytime soon.

"The Democrats want to bring back the Schumer amendment," he said, referring to a proposal to allow registrants to attest their identity by signature or "identifying mark," not by a photo ID or a Social Security number.

Bond called it a deal-breaker.

"If the Schumer amendment is in the bill, it's dead," said Bond.

Since Ms. Buchan says this is a priority for the president, when he is not trying to unstick the logjams on a patients' bill of rights and the prescription drug benefit, maybe he can work on this …

Campaign FInance

Here's a brain-twister for Mitch McConnell, Bob Bauer, and Ben Ginsberg:

Label each of these statements from last night's NBC Nightly News Lisa Myers' spot as:
a. a statement by Myers
b. a statement by John McCain
c. a statement by Fred Wertheimer

Go:
1. "They are basically writing regulations which will allow the soft money to flow, and it's absolutely outrageous and despicable behavior on their part" (about the FEC).
2. "After seven years of failure, supporters of campaign finance reform finally passed a bill into law this year. But the reforms aren't being implemented as … expected."
3. "Six months ago, there was celebration. Congress had finally cleaned up the system … "
4. "Essentially, presidents and senators can continue to do what they're doing as long as they use different language."
5. "'That's what the Federal Election Commission regulation says. It basically tells you the words to use in order to cheat."
6. "The regulations basically say that nothing the political parties do before Nov. 6 to set up new groups to solicit soft money can be used against them."
7. "Congressional leaders, even those who fought for the law, have been silent … That means Congress' claim to have finally fixed the system could be another in the long litany of Washington's broken promises."
8. "If you do your cheating and your illegal activity before Nov. 5, we'll shut our eyes and make believe it didn't happen."

Check your answers: LINK

The Economy

Eighteen hideous words leading the daily economic story in the Wall Street Journal : "What looked like a brief dip in economic activity a month ago looks increasingly like a protracted slowdown."

From a key The Wall Street Journal story: "Even before Congress begins debating a war against Iraq, the Bush administration is stepping up the pressure to approve a $10 billion Pentagon reserve fund that lawmakers believe could be used to finance military operations against Saddam Hussein … "

"The Iraq debate has so dominated events since Labor Day that the budget crisis has received little public attention. But thus far, the House has given its initial approval to only five of the annual spending bills; the Senate, to just three. To keep the government operating after Sept. 30, the first in what promises to be a series of stopgap spending resolutions will be taken up next week, leading to a possible post-election lame-duck session."

We wonder what Karl Rove thinks of the advice from the Wall Street Journal ed board to pick a fight on spending?

"[T]he President would be doing taxpayers a huge favor by breaking Congress of this tendency to spend its way home with continuing resolutions. Mr. Bush has the bully pulpit and the political standing to draw a line and prevail. And for Republicans still looking for a domestic issue, this one is a winner."

There's some good advice here for the left-leaning press about how to cover budget issues, but since a veto of the sort they recommend would cause a split between Hill Republicans and the White House, we think a veto might be good policy, but how could it be good politics for November 2002?

This will test your fidelity to the importance of Big Casino as the enduring (domestic) story of the Bush Administration, II: see if you can read, enjoy, and digest all of this New York Times story on the apparent plans of the Joint Committee on Taxation (led by the uber-powerful Rep. Bill Thomas) to start looking at all tax cut plans with a dynamically scored, supply side measuring stick. LINK

Our last two Republican presidents, supply siders (and, not incidentally, Keynesians) both, couldn't get this change on their watch, and, typically, Timesman Dick Stevenson has nary a word about what the White House thinks of this idea in his piece.

But trust us: except for lockbox stuff, Big Casino doesn't get much bigger than this, and Stevenson deftly uses tone and word choice to try to get that across.

Legislative Agenda

The faith- based initiative may soon be on the move LINK

Corporate Accountability

A hint of ads to come? The Reform Voter project, a pro-campaign finance reform group that ran a highly attention-getting ad in Arkansas a month or so ago, is now targeting two Democratic incumbents: Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), whom they say flip-flopped on campaign finance after getting lots of corporate money, and Rep. Ralph Hall (D-Texas), whom they castigate for wanting to repeal the alternative minimum tax for businesses and for voting in favor of "The Ken Lay Protection Act."

Constituents of both members will be the first students in the project's voter education drive this fall. Radio and/or TV ads may follow. David Donnelly, a veteran of Clean Money fights in Massachusetts and Maine, is the group's spokesperson.

We confess, we're not sure of the strategery here: Ralph Hall is running against John Graves, a Republican attorney without pro-campaign finance credentials. Plus, Hall is safe. So is Boucher. But perhaps there's a grander scheme we can't see.

The Reform Voter project is a 501c(4) group, allowed it to run these types of issue ads. Donnelly won't disclose the donors but says they're mostly individuals.

The groups plans to focus on five to seven "key" races, with voter education activity in a handful of others.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Al Gore gets lots of local press as he makes his way around Florida today.

The Orlando Sentinel says he's doing it "with an eye toward 2004." LINK

And as reported, Gore raised money in Miami last night for Arkansas Senate nominee Mark Pryor. Well, guess he couldn't go to Arkansas … (imagine what Dave Beckwith would do with this one).

Gore's visit got plenty of local television coverage. LINK

The AP focuses on how Gore worked the phones on behalf of a Democratic class-size initiative which Governor Bush opposes. LINK

And yet … the Palm Beach Post has a story whose mega impact on Gore may be debatable, but purely from a PR standpoint, it's lousy: "Al Gore visits Palm Beach County today for the first time since the butterfly ballot brouhaha of 2000, but local Democratic Chairman and prominent fund-raiser Monte Friedkin isn't interested in greeting him." LINK

"'I don't want to be there,' said Friedkin, who in May called the former vice president 'pompous' in the Jewish weekly Forward and said he wouldn't support Gore if he seeks the Democratic nomination for president again in 2004. 'I just feel he didn't treat us right in Palm Beach County after the election,' Friedkin said Tuesday."

"The county Democratic Party scheduled a major fund-raiser for Nov. 7, 2001 — the one-year anniversary of the disputed election — and invited Gore and his 2000 running mate, Senator Joe Lieberman, D-Conn."

"'Lieberman accepted within 24 hours,' Friedkin said, but 'Gore screwed us around for three months' before declining. As added insult, Friedkin said, Gore had a 'schlepper' make the call."

"Gore spokesman Jano Cabrera said Gore stayed out of the public eye for more than a year after the 2000 election."

We've said it before and we'll say it again: for such a longtime public servant and politician, from such a political family, Gore stuns us with his apparent lack of savvy sometimes. Just plain stuns us.

Longtime Gore aides not named "Knight," however, no longer seem stunned by such things.

Joe Lieberman may not be the only one waiting on someone else's decision to run or not run: the Hotline's Todd has Senator Chris Dodd running if Lieberman does not. And, Todd warns: "don't believe the hype on Gore being 'in' for 2004 — he hasn't done anything except start a PAC, travel to a couple of key dinners and deliver a few zingers about being unemployed. That's not the profile of a committed presidential candidate — it's the profile of someone who's still truly undecided."

On "Imus in the Morning" this morning, Senator Kerry responded to Imus' jokey claim that he was now going to vote for Bush over Kerry by reviewing where Bush stood on Big Casino before September 11.

Kerry went on to talk down the economy (that's at least how the Republican National Committee would view it), and suggest that 43 in '04 might end up like 41 in '92.

Imus goaded Kerry into tweaking Joe Lieberman for running for veep and Senate at the same time. Sadly for those whose adrenaline comes from little else, we are too far away from the Iowa caucuses for this stray comment to light a huge bonfire of controversy between the two New Englanders.

Kerry also got to talk about Iraq (hiding behind Colin Powell for his Gulf War vote, which he defended) with the I-Man, praised Tom Daschle and Tom Friedman, and compared notes on their shared doctor.

He also gets some free publicity, in the full-page "Hardball" ad in the New York Times , touting Chris Matthews' college tour and the Baystater's scheduled October 2 appearance.

Does Daschle really believe the very last part of what the New York Times quotes him as saying on the homeland security department stand-off? "'Show me one time in history when the circumstances threatening our country demanded that we forego the protections built into the law for federal workers,' said Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, the majority leader. 'There isn't one. And the president needs to understand that and needs to appreciate the strength of feeling that I think the American people have on this issue.'" LINK

Maybe in Fairfax and Prince George's counties, but not, we suspect, anywhere else.

When is ad hoc not ad hoc?

"Critics of Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle are challenging him for comments made about disaster aid in the farm bill during the May 26 edition of 'Meet the Press.' In response to a question from host Tim Russert on the pending farm expenditure, Daschle said, 'We're getting rid of those ad hoc disaster-payment approaches.' In the months following, Daschle led the fight to support emergency assistance for drought-stricken farmers and ranchers, including hundreds in South Dakota facing the worst dry spell in a century." LINK "President Bush has been resisting the emergency action, saying the money should be found within the $180 billion farm bill that has since been approved. Earlier this month, Daschle was able to muster 79 votes in the Senate supporting his $5 million emergency plan, something Bush says will require deficit spending. That brought out the Daschle police with the quote from "Meet the Press" as their weapon."

Roll Call 's Henry reported yesterday, "Exercising his civic duty in Tuesday's Democratic primary for governor, Kerry showed up at a Boston polling place at 7 a.m. — only to find people milling about because the machines weren't working. An aide tells HOH that Kerry slipped on his eyeglasses, spent the next 15 minutes reading the manual for the voting machines and fixed the problem. With order restored, the crowd started clapping."

We confess: we didn't know that the governor of Arizona is able to declare the state's presidential primary date by executive order. (Meaning that he or she can simply say, "The primary shalt be on X, 2004.") But some folks did know that. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Janet Napolitano and Arizona Democrats have gotten help, or will be getting little help this fall from, oh, say, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, John Kerry, Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, and Howard Dean.

Attention Whitehaven Drive aficionados and neighbors Wayne Berman and John Edwards: Iowa House candidate Dr. Julie Thomas pays a house call to Senator Hillary Rodham's Clinton's house tonight for a fundraiser.

Politics

The Washington Post 's Milbank tweaks Lamar Alexander for accepting "$1.1 million in assistance from the Bush fundraising machine he once accused of destroying grass-roots politics." LINK

"Bush has proven so successful as a rainmaker for Republicans that White House officials plan to have him continue raising money until the Nov. 5 election. Presidents typically shift their efforts in the fall to large rallies in an effort to boost voter turnout."

John Harwood in the Wall Street Journal does his best Ron Brownstein imitation, by trying to turn a European boondoggle into an excuse to write a piece headlined "Schroeder Comeback in Germany Bodes Well for the GOP in Fall," a premise silly enough that we laughed so loud while trying to read it that we missed part of Kerry on Imus.

The highlight of yesterday's BIPAC election preview was Bernadette Budde's analysis of 12 key congressional contests.

Needless to say, the savvy Business-Industry Political Action Committee is spending its time and energy very carefully. Among the dynamics they're looking for: marginal counties in closely contested battleground states where state legislative races have the potential to impact turnout, or where turnout in 2000 was particularly anemic.

Instead of big, statewide ad buys, smaller, county-targeted get-out-the-vote efforts may ultimately matter more, especially with a so finely tuned electorate.

Fittingly, the briefing did not start until Dean Broder walked in. He asked about the recent member-versus-member primary in Michigan's 8th Congressional District. Why didn't the media (and Lynn Rivers) get a big push from the United Auto Workers until it was too late?

BIPAC's Greg Casey responded that the UAW did a good job of direct union-to-worker communication and were able to engage voters directly on material issues. (We include this because we like to study the way Broder's mind works.)

Budde said later that a war on Iraq might nationalize the energy issue in a way that benefits Republicans.

The New York Post has an apparent exclusive on the Clintons and legal fee reimbursement, something the former First Couple, we are led to believe, talk about every so often. LINK

Actor/director/etc. Tim Robbins will be in DC today for a Capitol Hill news conference, and he has a few words for Lloyd Grove on a few topics of current national interest. LINK

Massachusetts

The formality of his nomination over with, Mitt Romney last night "made a deliberate plea for Democratic voters: backers of unsuccessful candidates Warren Tolman and Robert Reich, who ran on platforms of reforming state government." LINK

"Hoping to fend off hiccups within the ranks, Democrats put party elders Kennedy and Senator John F. Kerry on the victory stage last night with O'Brien." LINK

Maryland

On Thursday, Senator John McCain is guest chef at a fundraiser with Rep. Connie Morella at BD's Mongolian Barbeque. Might be a good chance for DC-based reporters to stretch a little and parachute into this still very competitive race.

Yes, McCain will actually cook for you. LINK

At the same time, Morella is trying to distance herself from her party's gubernatorial nominee, Bob Ehrlich, even though he noted in an earlier TV ad his work "with" her on abortion legislation. "Morella also played down her earlier appearances with Ehrlich." LINK

And Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is up with a TV ad "accusing [Ehrlich] of voting to cut education spending and to eliminate a program that provides free lunches to poor schoolchildren." LINK

Looks like if she wins this one, it will involve winning ugly. If Bob Shrum can stomach it.

California

The Republican and Green Party nominees for governor debated yesterday and found a lot of common ground in their attacks on the absent Gov. Gray Davis (D). "Simon used the Beverly Hills debate to elevate the stature of a Green Party candidate who has barely registered in the polls, but who could siphon votes from Davis." LINK

Yesterday brought the start of the trial over Simon's family's S&L. Even though a judge dismissed the civil suit against the firm, you can bet that the charges levied in the federal case will make the rounds in California. LINK

And it seems a decent enough interval might have passed that Garry South will start putting out some of his earned, bought-and-paid-for opposition research. Up until now, the manna from heaven has fallen so fast, the Davis campaign hasn't had to use its own stuff.

Will the Cali political press have Simon financial controversy fatigue, however?

Mickey Kaus picks up on an L.A. Weekly report that Arnold Schwarzenegger (apparently some actor) privately polled folks last week to see if he'd do well running as a write-in candidate this November. (With his after school project initiative on the ballot this year, Arnold is assumed to be planting seeds for a 2006 run.)

"His weakness is his vulnerability to a negative campaign replaying the charges of loutish and womanizing behavior contained in a controversial recent Premiere magazine article. But if he jumps into the race in October, the campaign might be over before an effective negative campaign — and press 'scrutiny' — could break through the 'tidal wave' of initial hype." LINK

But, we say, isn't just as likely that Mr. S. is polling to assess his level of support at this moment? In other words, it's not unusual for candidates who know they're going to run four years hence to privately poll, if they can, against the current crop of candidates.

"Consumer activists called Tuesday for Gov. Gray Davis to return what they denounced as a 'shameless' $25,000 contribution from Mercury Insurance, made as the company is lobbying the governor to sign a measure that would help the firm's business," the watchdogs at the San Jose Mercury News (no relation) report. LINK

"Mercury is urging Davis to sign a controversial bill pushed through the Legislature last month that would strike down proposed regulations meant to prevent companies from offering discounts to drivers who have had no gaps in their auto insurance coverage."

The state Libertarian party has pulled its endorsement of gubernatorial candidate Gary David Copeland after Copeland spit (not allegedly or figuratively, but vocally and literally, on air) on a KABC radio talk show host with whom he disagreed about immigration. LINK

New York

America's newspapers: please check out the way the New York Times , led by the wise-beyond-her-years Shaila Dewan, is doing their ad boxes this cycle, taking the "accuracy" and "scorecard" sections seriously and literally, and not just doing theater criticism and tactics. LINK

Every paper should be doing that.

Page Six begins to unravel the Golisano campaign ties to the Democrats, although we can't imagine voters ever caring. LINK

Connecticut

A new poll shows Gov. John Rowland (R) sitting on a somewhat comfortable double-digit lead over Democrat Bill Curry, but even Republicans say to keep watching this one, for, at least, natural tightening. LINK

Illinois

"Illinois Atty. Gen. Jim Ryan on Tuesday sued Gov. George Ryan and the state Prisoner Review Board to halt an unprecedented series of clemency hearings next month for 157 inmates on Death Row," the Tribune reports. "Saying the hearings would be too rushed and deny fundamental fairness and dignity to victims of crime, Jim Ryan also insisted the lawsuits had nothing to do with politics even though he is battling Democrat Rod Blagojevich to succeed George Ryan as governor." LINK

North Carolina

Elizabeth Dole is calling for TV station to pull "the first critical TV ad of the fall Senate campaign," in which "the Democratic Party said Dole, a Republican, wanted to convert Social Security into a more market-oriented pension program." LINK

"'Erskine Bowles is opposed to privatizing Social Security,' said the ad, referring to the Democratic Senate nominee. 'But Elizabeth Dole still wants to gamble Social Security money in the stock market, even though it would reduce guaranteed benefits for retirees.'"

"The Democratic ad marked a new phase in the general election campaign," writes the Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen. "After the initial week of positive ads and a debate about debates, the Democrats began an effort to convince voters that Dole does not represent their views."

South Carolina

The state GOP has formed a "Hispanic Outreach and Development Committee." We wonder whether that effort will manage to avoid the internal problems that plagued their effort to reach out to African-Americans. LINK

Minnesota

No surprise: a St. Paul Pioneer Press poll reaffirms the CW that the Wellstone/Coleman race is really a virtual dead heat among folks who tell pollsters they're likely voters. LINK The Green and Independence Party candidates got two percent each.

The sample size is small, though, and there's no regional breakdown.

Texas

We wonder if this will go away quickly or stick in the craw for awhile: "Democratic senatorial candidate Ron Kirk said Tuesday that he regretted inserting racial overtones into the debate over war with Iraq and accused Republican opponent John Cornyn of distorting his stance on national defense. In a written statement, Kirk sought to lay to rest a controversy that erupted four days earlier with remarks that he made during a rally in San Antonio." LINK

"Kirk suggested then that Cornyn was supportive of military action against Iraq because minority soldiers would do a disproportionate amount of the fighting. Kirk, a former mayor of Dallas, is black, and Cornyn, the Texas attorney general, is white. 'I support the president's efforts on Iraq. I also am concerned about each and every American who potentially will be on the front lines fighting in Iraq, should we go to war,' Kirk said Tuesday."

Colorado

Is Senator Wayne Allard responsible for COLAs? LINK

The papers also play up the NRCC's $1.5 million ad blitz on behalf of House candidate Bob Beauprez. LINK

Arizona

"Phoenix is paying Republican nominee for governor Matt Salmon $187,500 this year to lobby Congress for the city's big-ticket projects, including light rail construction." LINK

But that means Salmon's good for business!

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Some people think that until the New York Times ' Nick Lewis has curtain-raised a judicial confirmation battle, well, the thing hasn't actually BEEN curtain-raised.

Lewis today finally gets around to writing up the McConnell confirmation fight, and, in what we like to think of as a personal wink to The Note, he slips the phrase "the nation's professoriate" into his piece. LINK

Greg Hitt has some very impressive Bumillerian reporting on 43, 41, and the war, complete with always-delectable quotes from Sig Rogich.

Mike Allen softly writes up Lynne Cheney's softened role as education advocate, pegged to yesterday's tricorn hat-stapling project for kids at the Vice President's residence yesterday. LINK

The AP's Jordan notes how Tom Ridge, "a former union member, finds himself in the position of defending a White House plan that labor leaders fear could strip federal employees of basic workers' rights." LINK

"[L]abor advocates are frustrated that Ridge is backing the White House plan that would give the agency powers to hire and fire its workers in the name of safeguarding the nation against terrorism." But, "[i]n Pennsylvania, statewide labor leaders still rave about their relationship with the twice-elected governor."

The legal battle over Native American lands held in a federal government trust has claimed another Cabinet secretary victim: Interior's Gale Norton is the third Cabinet member to be held in contempt of court over the matter. LINK

Ten Cabinet members are millionaires, the Washington Post 's Edsall reports, and one-third of them are worth around $10 million. The top three: O'Neill, Rummy, and Cheney. LINK