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Twelve percent of likely voters rate health care as the most important issue in their vote — including twice as many women as men, and twice as many independents as Republicans. Health care voters support Gore over George W. Bush by a whopping 63-28 percent.
But is it the right issue for Gore to own? Maybe not. Considerably more people pick education as the top issue, 20 percent, and Gore wins them by a much narrower 11-point margin. The economy, Social Security and taxes also beat out health care, and Bush leads hugely on taxes.
These issues fuel a close and basically stable race, with a small but fairly steady edge to Bush. He has 49 percent support among likely voters interviewed Monday through Wednesday night, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader 3 and Pat Buchanan 1. It’s about the same without Nader and Buchanan, 51-46 percent.
Bush has held a small numerical advantage in 16 out of 20 ABCNEWS polls since Labor Day. Three were tied (including last Sunday’s result) and Gore was +2 on Oct. 1. But Bush’s edge has been a small one — ranging from one to five points, and averaging two points across all these polls. With mere days to go, the race isn’t over.
Gore Holds Slim Lead on Issues
Gore leads in four of the top five issues tested in this poll. His problems are that his biggest lead is in a somewhat lesser issue; that his other leads are not nearly as large as Bill Clinton’s were in 1996; and that Bush’s lead on one issue, taxes, is so big. (See Wednesday’s tracking poll).
Most important issue: |
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All |
Gore |
Bush |
Gap |
| Education |
20% |
53% |
42% |
Gore +11 |
| Economy |
16% |
55% |
40% |
Gore +15 |
| Taxes |
15% |
17% |
79% |
Bush +62 |
| Social Security |
15% |
55% |
41% |
Gore +14 |
| Health care |
12% |
63% |
28% |
Gore +35 |
| World affairs |
9% |
not available |
| Rx drugs |
5% |
not available |
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Union Voters Could Make Difference
Turnout’s critical in a close race — not simply how many people show up to vote, but who they are and whom they support. Labor is a prime example: Gore is winning a healthy chunk of voters from union households, 61-33 percent.
But in this poll those voters only account for 17 percent of all likely voters — whereas in 1996, 23 percent of voters were from union households. If union voters turn out at that level or better on Tuesday, it could make a difference.
Other groups are important as well. Blacks, the most monolithic Democratic group, account for about one in 10 voters — and 90 percent of them favor Gore. White religious conservatives — the “religious right” — similarly account for about one in 10 voters — and eight in 10 of them back Bush.
Race for Independents Still Tight
And there are the swing groups. Independents have shifted toward Bush, favoring him by 50-39 percent in this poll; Bush also is leading by 11 points among suburbanites. But white Catholics continue to divide evenly, as do middle class voters — 48 percent for Gore, 46 percent Bush.
Most men remain solidly on Bush’s side; he now leads among men by 55-39 percent, and among white men by 59-35 percent. Women have been more changeable; they now back Gore, but by just eight points, 51-43 percent. And among white women it’s Bush 49 percent, Gore 46.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 30-Nov. 1 among a random national sample of 1,032 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABCNEWS and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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