NEWS SUMMARY

Of all the variables that go into predicting who will win the White House — peace, war, prosperity, right track, bold policy proposals, etc. — there really are only three that matter.

One, which candidate does the national political press like more?

Two, who does the national political press think will win in November?

And, three, who does the national political press think is running the more competent campaign?

And if you believe us on those three rules, ask yourself — Bush or Kerry — who's winning right now?

Don't underestimate the capacity of John Kerry's speech today in Missouri on national security to affect all three of these critical indices, or the capacity of the President's appearance at the White House Correspondents Association dinner tomorrow night to do the same.

Today at around 2:00 p.m. ET, Sen. Kerry plans to take the stage at Westminster College in Fulton, Mo., looking to bring together a sense of current and past history and lay out a plan for dealing with Iraq.

On the eve of the one-year anniversary of President Bush's declaration that major combat operations in Iraq had ended, Kerry will take on the Bush Administration's handling of that nation and answer the criticism of Vice President Cheney, who spoke at the school on Monday. He is expected to lay out the steps he thinks America has to take to accomplish our objective: a stable Iraq with a representative government secure in its borders.

The Note offers some preview excerpts:

"We need to put pride aside to build a stable Iraq. We must reclaim our country's standing in the world by doing what has kept America safe and made it more secure before-leading in a way that brings others to us so that we are respected, not simply feared, around the globe."

"Will all this be difficult to achieve? Yes. Is there a guarantee of success? No. In light of all the mistakes that have been made, no one can guarantee success. No one can say that success is certain, but I can say that if we do not try this, failure is all too likely."

We wonder what the campaign THINKS the lead will be out of this speech … .

As for the WHCA dinner (and the hothothot Bloomberg party afterwards … .), Saturday's POTUS turn at the mike is sure to be a fine place to gauge how the Gang of 500 is feeling about fourmoreyears.

Just watch (as both Maureen Dowd and the President himself would say) the body language. And the facial expressions. John Kerry isn't going to the dinner, although he will be in town.

Safe bets:

A. No WMD jokes.
B. The President will play the solemn national security card at the end of his remarks.
C. Those who remember to eat BEFORE the dinner will be the lucky ones.
D. 43's presentation will be shorter than 42's were (per usual).
E. Once again, the world will know that hometown boy Kevin Sheekey can do more than just build a bridge across 8th Avenue.
F. Black dresses never go out of style.
G. Washington's well-deserved reputation for not being able to handle a "real" celebrity sighting will be re-cemented.
H. The cutaways on C-SPAN during the Presidential jokes will be vitally important.
I. This will be the biggest speech of Mike Allen's life (or, at least, the biggest speech of his since he told the Times he was quitting … .).

President Bush meets today with the Prime Minister of Canada (we wonder if he'll ask the Prime Minister what he thought of Rep. Hamilton's introduction), signs the Indian Education Executive Order, and meets with the President of Guatemala. On Saturday the President attends the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner in Washington, D.C.

He starts his battleground state bus trip on Monday.

Sen. Kerry speaks today at Westminster College in Fulton, Mo. then attends a fundraiser with Carole King in St. Louis, Mo. Kerry is down this weekend in Washington and Boston, with no public events scheduled.

On Saturday, Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at the Florida State University commencement ceremony.

First Lady Laura Bush delivers the commencement address at Miami Dade College in Miami, Fla., on Saturday.

Also on Saturday Mrs. Cheney delivers the 108th commencement address at Cedarville University in Cedarville, Ohio.

On Saturday, Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.) speaks at an Arizona Democratic Party fundraiser.

ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry:

The AP's Nedra Pickler previews Sen. Kerry's speech today at Westminster College, where he will address how a year after the President landed on the aircraft carrier under the "mission accomplished" banner, the mission in Iraq is not accomplished. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Matea Gold delivers a straightforward write-up of Kerry's chemical plant security critique. LINK

Jodi Wilgoren of the New York Times follows up on the Associated Press story about concerns of a lack of racial diversity in John Kerry's circle of close advisers. LINK

Two key things we learn from Wilgoren's story:

1. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) may not be the most diligent about remaining on message when he is urged to call a reporter to help kill a story.
2. Al Sharpton (who seems to know a thing or two about how to use the media for ulterior motives) has John Kerry's personal cell phone number. But does he have Mrs. Kerry's?

The New York Post's Orin on Kerry's fundraising success and car ownership. He apparently forgot to list one of his wife's Audis, which drew this response from the RNC's Christine Iverson. LINK

"How many people own so many cars that they can't remember them all?"

"John Kerry's appearance on "Meet the Press" took a bite out of the show's typically stellar ratings — and drew half the audience that President Bush did on the program last February," reports the New York Post's Don Kaplan. LINK

Jackie Calmes' Washington Wire has the long-awaited Kerry bio spots hitting a TV screen near you next week.

"Next week he airs TV ads on his life, after weeks of negative Bush campaign ads. An aide says campaign surveys show Kerry remains unfamiliar; many voters don't know he saw Vietnam combat."

The Des Moines Register's Jane Norman reports on Sen. Tom Harkin, who said yesterday that he had been asked for advice by a top aide in Kerry's vetting camp as they work toward choosing a vice president for the presumptive Democratic nominee. Harkin's comments came a day after Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack acknowledged he is under consideration for the veep nod. LINK

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune's Dane Smith and Eric Black Note Kerry's Monday fundraising trip to Minnesota, where an event for donors will raise money in his first stop in the state following the caucuses in early March. LINK

ABC News' Kerry campaign reporter Ed O'Keefe tracks the candidate's movements and tallies up the appearances — or would-be appearances — by those jockeying for the VP spot.

HARRISBURG, PA., April 29 — Though he exceeded his $80 million fundraising goal, Sen. John Kerry continues the drive Friday, traveling to Missouri for a Westminster College address and an evening fundraiser featuring Carole King.

Following a Minnesota fundraiser on Monday, Kerry heads south next week, making his second visit to Albuquerque, N.M., this election year.

The presumptive Democratic nominee then makes two stops in California, addresses the Democratic Leadership Council in Phoenix, Ariz., rounding out the week with an event in Baton Rouge and by delivering the commencement address at Southern University of New Orleans.

The most provocative part of Kerry's April and May travels may not be his destinations but the company he keeps.

As the political water coolers rumble with vice presidential tidbits and theories, it's worth Noting that by the end of next week, Kerry will have spent time with many of the pundits' possible picks.

Sen. John Edwards joined Kerry on the Florida trail April 20. Not to be out done, Sunshine State Sens. Bill Nelson and Bob Graham spent several days in late April campaigning with their colleague.

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack had some quality time in Kerry's motorcade on April 25, following the Massachusetts Senator's first trip to Iowa since his upset caucus win in January.

Rep. Dick Gephardt, the politician who has logged the most trail time with the candidate, joins Kerry yet again at a Friday fundraiser in St. Louis.

The travel tea leaves also tease several wildcards.

Kerry appeared Thursday at a Harrisburg, Pa., fundraiser with the Keystone State's Gov. Ed Rendell.

All eyes will be on the lookout for Gov. Janet Napolitano in Arizona Wednesday and during Kerry's trip to New Mexico next Tuesday, it's distinctly possible Gov. Bill Richardson may drop by.

Battleground-less Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and 9/11 Commissioner Bob Kerrey may just have to wait.

After one of the most aggressive weeks of campaigning since he gained a numerical lock on the nomination, Kerry jumps off the campaign trail this weekend.

The well-earned break may be necessary as Kerry began to look tired Thursday, even coughing and sneezing through a series of five radio interviews. But even when the Senator is off the trail, personal obligations keep him on the run.

A private commitment keeps the Senator in Washington Saturday while his fondness for Boston take him home on Sunday, only to return to Washington early Monday to deliver a speech before the Anti-Defamation League.

But Kerry may make his way back to Washington again soon. During those same radio interviews, the Senator told aides, "I need some time on a weekday in Washington when Congress is in session because I have some people I need to see and some things I need to get done."

Perhaps the Democratic Senator from Indiana is in luck after all.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The Chicago Tribune's foxy Jill Zuckman takes a 10,000-foot look at President Bush, Iraq and the war on terror through the prism of "Mission Accomplished" a year later — and how the military action plays in the minds of voters and in the campaign. LINK

Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jones wraps up the "Parties for the President" and Noting the more than 5,000 parties nationwide. LINK

Vice President Cheney endorsed Fox News on the conference call with supporters last night, saying "'they're more accurate in my experience, in those events that I'm personally involved in, than many of the other outlets,'" the Washington Post's Allen reports. LINK

"White House Insider" Dana Milbank becomes a Web star today at 11:00 am ET: LINK

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Gregory Korte reports on the question Ohioan Michael K. Allen got to ask Cheney. When asked if the number of reservists in Iraq from Ohio would deter the Administration from sticking to the June 30 deadline:

"We think it's very important, Mike, to stick to that schedule," Cheney replied. "This will be a difficult time over the next two months heading to June 30 … because the enemy will do everything they can over the next 60 days to try to derail this process." LINK

Politics of national security:

"The number of international terrorist attacks fell to the lowest level on record last year, but the recent bombing in Madrid indicates that the U.S. and its allies haven't succeeded in stopping al Qaeda's ability to launch major operations," writes the Wall Street Journal's David Cloud of a new State Department report.

The Wall Street Journal's Bob Davis looks at the Secretary of State's continued appeal. "Colin Powell may be regarded as a weakened figure within the Bush cabinet, but a two-day trip to Europe demonstrated he still brings substantial political assets to the President — both at home and outside America."

Politics of the 9/11 Commission:

President Bush and Vice President Cheney met yesterday with the 9/11 Commission in the White House. The highlights:

--The three-hour session was cordial.
--President Bush said he was glad he talked to the commission.
--The President answered every question that was asked, according to both him and the commissioners.
--Bob Kerrey and Lee Hamilton left early for previously scheduled engagements. --The session was not recorded, but Notes were taken — and we're starting a pool on when Bob Woodward will get copies — $2 a square.

The New York Times' Eric Lichtblau writes that the biggest news to come out of the historic meeting was casually dropped by Scott McClellan well into his afternoon briefing when he expressed the President's disappointment in his Attorney General over the Gorelick dump. LINK

"In an administration that prides itself on its unified message, it is rare for the White House publicly to chide any of the President's senior advisers."

At this writing, the world awaits the DOJ and Ashcroft response.

The talented and keen (and foxy) Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times sums up the "news" of the day thusly: "Bush's criticism of the Justice Department — while rare in an administration known for its strict adherence to the President's wishes — underscored the occasional tension in Ashcroft's relationship with the White House, caused by his tendency to stray from the Administration's message." LINK

The Washington Post's Dan Eggen and Dana Milbank: LINK

The New York Times' Philip Shenon and David Sanger: LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Miller and Reynolds: LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Cam Simpson and Jeff Zeleny:

LINK

The New York Post's Wood: "Oval Office Insult: Two 9/11 Dems walk out on Bush" LINK

Be sure to Note Commissioner Thompson's surprise at the early departures.

The Washington Times' Joe Curl leads with a blind paraphrase of the President saying intelligence warnings before Sept. 11, 2001 were too vague to be acted upon. LINK

The New York Times' Stanley on how it all played on television … especially without any pictures: LINK

The Times also provides a little history of presidential testimony. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:

Walter Shapiro takes a look at the recent dialogue on oppo and reminds us that "There was never a golden age when campaigns limited themselves to high-minded dialogues on the issues and idealistic appeals to the better natures of the electorate. Even the lowliest ward heeler instinctively understood that you can win votes through fear as well as favors. Negative campaigning did not have to wait for the creation of the 30-second attack ad to portray the opposition candidate as unworthy of high office." LINK

Tom Raum of The AP takes a look at all the bracketing (a.k.a. shadowing) going on in this presidential campaign. LINK

The ads:

The Note presents a rundown, for those keeping score, of the spots that burned up the airwaves this week.

--BC04 launched "Weapons" this past week to slam Kerry for voting against military projects and resources. The ad uses somewhat low-budget computer animation (as compared to, say, a Pixar movie) to make planes, missiles, and other military equipment disappear.
--MoveOn.org PAC fired on the President for his Vietnam-era record and praised Kerry as a war hero. The ad includes a E! True Hollywood Story style reenactment of Bush's 1970s activity.
--The Media Fund unveiled a spot accusing the President of being in cahoots with the drug companies to keep costs high.
--The New Democrat Network continued its ads calling for Hispanic unity under the Democrats' tent.

By the numbers…

--3 Bush ads bashing Kerry on the war and his record
--5 Kerry ads bashing Bush on the war, judges, tax cuts, the environment, and abortion rights
--1 MoveOn ad praising Kerry and knocking Bush on their Vietnam service records
--1 Media Fund ad knocking Bush on drug costs
--2 New Democrat Network ads calling for Hispanic loyalty to Democrats

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

The Washington Times' Donald Lambro reports on Sen. Kerry's as-yet undeveloped ground game — at least in terms of organization — in several battleground states. And there's that whole notion of "writing off" the South again …

LINK

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert reports on two new polls out in Wisconsin that offer two very different pictures of the Presidential race before the BC04 ticket peppers the state with a string of campaign visits. A statewide Badger poll has Bush widening his lead over Kerry in the past month, while a poll conducted by the St. Norbert College Survey Center gives Kerry a small lead over the President. LINK

A poll by KAET-TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University finds President Bush and Sen. Kerry neck-in-neck in the battleground state of Arizona. Of 410 registered voters, 41 percent say they would vote for Bush, and 38 percent for Kerry. LINK

"About 1,400 Detroit teachers and 550 administrators and principals should expect to receive layoff notices in the mail by today," reports the Detroit Free Press. LINK

The economy:

The Los Angeles Times reports, "A gallon of whole milk will cost at least $2.90 — 50percent more than a year ago. And in major supermarkets, a gallon could command more than $4." LINK

Big Casino budget politics: Medicare:

The New York Times' Pear and Freudenheim spent some time trolling through the new Medicare Web site. LINK

"In many cases, the prices offered to Medicare beneficiaries, with the help of new drug discount cards, appear similar to the prices available to any consumer using online pharmacies."

The Chicago Sun-Times' Jim Ritter reports that for Illinois seniors, the state's Rx Buying Club program might offer better benefits than the new Medicare drug discount card program. LINK

On the Hill:

The Wall Street Journal reports the Bush Administration could possibly be willing to accept the House's higher bottom line for the transportation bill. "White House officials suggested they would sign off on a higher amount if lawmakers can show how federal Highway Trust Fund dollars can support more projects than the $256 billion the White House originally proposed."

The Washington Post's Helen Dewar reports that the odds of an energy bill passing this year got a little slimmer yesterday. LINK

The politics of same-sex marriage:

Gov. Romney wrote a letter to his 49 colleagues letting them know same-sex couples from their state will not be allowed to get married in his. LINK

The Concord Monitor's Daniel Barrick reports on a vote yesterday in the New Hampshire, where the House blocked recognition of gay marriages performed out of state. With the results of the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision looming, the decision was viewed by many as a move of legislative defense. LINK

Environmental politics:

The EPA announced it is not withdrawing "its plan for regulating mercury from coal-fired power plants" despite pressure from some Democrats and environmentalists to do so. LINK

House of labor:

The former prosecutor in charge of the Teamsters' internal anti-corruption program has resigned because he believes the program is no longer a priority for union chief James Hoffa, reports the New York Times' labor guru Steve Greenhouse. LINK

Democratic National Convention:

The Associated Press' Jennifer Peter writes up the ongoing threat by the Boston police union to picket outside of the FleetCenter this summer. She also provides some excellent historical context for her readers. LINK

"The Republican-friendly police union in Boston is threatening to play 'bad cop' at the Democratic National Convention this summer even as hometown candidate John Kerry prepares to accept his party's nomination for president."

Democrats are now planning to have a charity co-host a big convention party in Boston, the Boston Globe reports, something the Republicans got criticized for planning not so long ago. National Childhood Cancer Foundation's "CureSearch" program will be a beneficiary to "Rockin' on the Dock of the Bay" party on July 29, the night before Sen. Kerry speaks. This is apparently the new "in" thing to do now that convention committees can't use soft money. LINK

Republicans are still waiting for sufficient goo-goo outrage.

Kerry told BET on Thursday that he'd like Rev. Sharpton to speak. LINK

Politics:

The Washington Post's Dan Keating reports that "the Pentagon will soon be unveiling a program to do a better job of getting ballots overseas and back so units deployed in combat zones and elsewhere can cast votes in the fall presidential election." LINK

House Minority Leader Pelosi will continue to ask for Communion despite the Vatican's misgivings about pro-choice pols, reports the Associated Press. LINK

The Seattle Times' Alex Fryer Notes that Pelosi has personally remonstrated Rep. Jim McDermott for "improvising" on the Pledge. LINK

"I do want to be mayor like nothing else," Antonio Villaraigosa told the Los Angeles Times. The former City of Angels mayoral candidate will decide by late summer if he'll take another crack at it. LINK

Bestsellers:

The AP reports that in his book, Ambassador Joe Wilson pegs Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Elliott Abrams, and Karl Rove as the possible White House leakers of his wife's identity as a CIA agent. LINK

Why anyone thinks there is reason to think Joe Wilson would know is beyond us.

The New York Times write-up of Wilson's book news leads with Libby, but also includes a Gingrich spokesperson calling Wilson's account of a meeting among senior Republicans possibly including the former Speaker a "complete fabrication." LINK

Mark Memmott of USA Today reports that in his book, Wilson says Vice President Cheney himself "was aware of a meeting held by his staff that started a chain of events that ended with the 'effective betrayal of our country,'" stopping short of accusing him of leaking Mrs. Wilson's identity. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Schmitt writes up the Wilson "work-up" claim. LINK

Let's all remember: AG Ashcroft did not appoint the outside counsel looking at all this; after his recusal, the Deputy AG did. A small point, but can't we all agree to stop making that error, for the sake of our children and grandchildren?

Faux show business:

Jennifer 8. Lee of the New York Times considers ways to get into the Bloomberg party tomorrow night. LINK

TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—7:29 am: Sen. Rick Santorum appears on the "Imus In the Morning" radio program
—8:00 am: The Commerce Department issues Personal Income for March
—8:30 am: Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt and Dan Senor, senior adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority, conduct an operational update from Baghdad
—9:06 am: Sen. John Kerry appears live on the "Good Day USA" radio program. (to listen: http://www.dougstephan.com)
—9:30 am: Off-camera gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan
—10:00 am: The House meets for a pro-forma only session
—10:00 am: Ralph Nader appears on WTOP's political show, Washington, D.C. (1500AM/107.7FM)
—10:50 am: First Lady Laura Bush and Sheila Martin, wife of Canadian prime minister, tours an exhibit titled, "Milton Avery: Two Devoted Collectors, Louis Kaufman and Duncan Phillips," Washington, D.C.
—11:25 am: President Bush meets with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin
—1:15 pm: On-camera White House briefing from McClellan
—1:30 pm: Vice President Cheney speaks at a RNC Victory 2004 event. Milwaukee, Wis.
—1:30 pm: Lyndon LaRouche holds a Webcast (http://www.larouchein2004.com) on "The Keys to Peace: The LaRouche Doctrine"
—1:45 pm: President Bush signs the Indian Education Executive Order
—1:45 pm: Sen. Kerry speaks at Westminster College, Fulton, Mo.
—2:00 pm: On-camera White House briefing from McClellan
—2:30 pm: President Bush meets with Guatemalan President Oscar Berger
—3:55 pm: Vice President Cheney speaks at Coating Excellence International, Wrightstown, Wis.
—7:00 pm: Gov. Bill Richardson keynotes the South Carolina Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner, Columbia, S.C.
—7:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends fundraising reception with Carole King, St. Louis, Mo.