The 2004 presidential election is about large things — the war on terror, the economy, the battle against Iraq, and health care, to name just the Big Four.

But for those (too) close to the game, it is also about pressure, hurt feelings, and breaking china.

Let's face it — even taking into account the Republican Party's historically higher capacity to show discipline within a campaign, the difference between the BC04RNC effort and the KE04DNC effort in terms of public cohesiveness is pretty striking.

Press fascination with the inside baseball of who is up and who is down, who likes whom, who is cavorting with whom, and who is inserting knives into whom (and where) runs pretty high.

But beyond the inside stuff, it is generally the case that the losing side in every presidential contest tends to show more signs of strain by November (as an effect, we think, more than as a cause).

So on a day in which we preview for you yet another Bob Shrum profile; on a day when a certain junior Senator from New York's failure to get a primo convention slot is causing tongues to wag; and on a day in which the presidential bus tour continues to roll along; let's look at a simple question — given the POTUS poll standing, why does the Bush campaign — and the Republican Party — seem so unified and calm?

By normal, textbook campaign analysis, an incumbent president with Mr. Bush's numbers — re-elect, job approval, wrong track — should basically be toast, and his peeps should be squirming and letting the fissures show.

In fact, even as they have enjoyed success, the Kerry campaign is still bedeviled by blind quotes galore that suggest division and tension. Just today's premium example — from a Washington Post story on Kerry's many policy advisory councils:

"'It seems to be working, in the sense of making the outside people feel warm and fuzzy, like they've been consulted,' said one close economic adviser. 'It's mostly so all these people can say they're working with the Kerry campaign.'"

Whereas you never see blind quotes like, say, "Ken Mehlman argued for X but Cheney was for Y," and that isn't because they don't have healthy internal debates, but because they are loyal and disciplined.

Remember that classic New Republic story about the various factions in the Kerry campaign? Just try to report out and write such a piece about BC04. (Although we should say that the Kerry effort is one of the more disciplined Democratic efforts in memory.)

Imagine what it COULD be like for the Bushies — all the tension with THEIR convention host mayor could be spilling out into public view. Republican congressional worry about their chamber control could be turning all 279 GOP members into mini-Ray LaHoods.

And yet, Team Bush seems awfully calm and unified and confident.

Or is it?

Sometimes, it is more about what people do than what they say … . .

Surely they've got to be feeling the pressure over at the White House, and if you wanted to strain to find signs of strain, here's where you COULD look:

-- spending more than 70 percent of its ad dollars attacking John Kerry?

-- the inability to pull the trigger on a second-term agenda? ("stay tuned" does not an agenda make)

-- trotting out Barbara and Jenna?

-- the increasing prominence given social issues and "values" in the campaign?

-- playing the President off the stage with Elton John's classic "Philadelphia Freedom" yesterday?

-- intra-Cheney disagreement over states' rights and gay union (not small issues)?

-- the mini flurry of Rove on the record? (For the record — we would like more.)

-- regular attacks out of the Presidential mouth on Kerry and Edwards? (although no invocation of "Ozone Man" — yet!)

-- stepped-up critiques of the media coverage?

-- Mr. Cheney telling New England Senators to perform impossible-to-perform sex acts?

And then there is this go-ahead-Terry-Holt-and-Bill-Frist-and-challenge-this-if-you-can/dare passage from Harold Meyerson's must-read Washington Post op-ed:

"Bush has been consistently trailing John Kerry among independent voters … . That's partly a function of the failure of the war in Iraq. It's also a consequence of the president's screwing up his two chief outreach-to-the-middle legislative vehicles. Bush subverted his No Child Left Behind initiative by failing to fund it. He botched his Medicare reform act by turning it chiefly into a giveaway to drug companies at the expense of American seniors."

"Clearly, Karl Rove had envisioned that these initiatives could build support for Bush in the center of the electorate, but they failed because they ran counter to Bush's political DNA. This is not a president who has it in him to spend money on improving the education of poor children or to side with consumers over such mega-donors as the drug industry. In a similar vein, the administration's on-again, off-again attempt to increase its support among Latino voters by backing a pseudo-immigration reform that offered residency but not citizenship to the immigrant workers it would cover hasn't yielded any increase in its Latino backing, either."

"The Republicans' campaign is all about scapegoating John Kerry for the ills of modernity. It's about exploiting homophobia, provincialism and cultural insecurity. Or, as they put it, values."

So watch for more signs today, when President Bush continues Day 2 of his bus tour, crisscrossing mostly Republican areas of Wisconsin, which Al Gore won in 2000 by only 5,000 votes. At 10:00 am ET he speaks at the Waukesha County Exposition Center; he holds a conversation event in Fond du Lac at 1:30 pm ET; and he speaks in Ashwaubenon at 7:05 pm ET. He returns to the White House at 10:40 pm ET.

The Senate spends the morning debating the Federal Marriage Amendment and is expected at noon to vote on whether to stop debate and proceed to a vote. That cloture vote is expected to fail, and the Senate this afternoon is expected to move on to … the Australian Free Trade Agreement.

Sen. Edwards returns to the campaign trail today, beginning his first solo campaign run with a 2:00 pm rally at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines. Later tonight he attends a campaign fundraiser in Chicago. Obviously, we all need to start gauging what kind of national, regional, and local coverage the man gets when he flies solo.

Sen. Kerry has no scheduled events today. He spends the day at his residence in Boston, Mass.

First Lady Laura Bush takes part in a reading roundtable and speaks to the press at an elementary school in Hueytown, Ala. this morning. The First Lady also raises money for the RNC, attending receptions in Birmingham, Ala. and Greensboro, Ga. this afternoon and evening.

Several of Howard Dean's biggest patrons will host a fundraiser for his Democracy for America in Washington, D.C. tonight. Gov. Dean is said to be giving serious thought to playing his guitar.

And former President Gerald Ford celebrates his 91st birthday today.

Tomorrow brings a dig dump of campaign finance data. How much cash on hand do the DCCC and NRCC have? And which party has the edge in Senate candidate fundraising?

Why watch the Olympic trials when you can watch Vice President Cheney sweat it out with Steve Scully of C-SPAN? Stay tuned to this space for more …

Must-reads:

Two for Chad Clanton:

The New York Times ' Robert Pear reports that when Medicare begins covering prescription drug benefits in 2006, employers will either cut down or eliminate such benefits for 3.8 million retirees — one-third of all the retirees with employer-furnished drug coverage, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The government would not fund efforts by employers to subsidize retirees' Medicare benefits. LINK

The Los Angeles Times reports that lobbyists, public relations counselors and confidential advisers to senior federal officials who helped argue the administration's case for war in Iraq seem to be making profits off it. "And the ease with which they have moved from advocating policies and advising high government officials to making money in activities linked to their policies and advice reflects the blurred lines that often exist between public and private interests in Washington." LINK

One for Steve Schmidt:

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman Notes "John F. Kerry's presidential campaign has grown exponentially in recent months to include a cast literally of thousands, making it difficult to manage an increasingly unwieldy policy apparatus." LINK

"The campaign now includes 37 separate domestic policy councils and 27 foreign policy groups, each with scores of members. The justice policy task force alone includes 195 members. The environmental group is roughly the same size, as is the agriculture and rural development council. Kerry counts more than 200 economists as his advisers."

"In contrast, President Bush's campaign policy shop is a no-frills affair. Policy director Tim Adams directs about a dozen experts who make sure the campaign is in sync with the vast executive branch that is formulating policy. Adams's group also analyzes Kerry's proposals and voting record. Fewer than a dozen outside task forces, with five to 10 members, also help out on education, veterans' issues, the economy, and energy, environment and natural resources, said campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel."

And the rest for us all.

The Wall Street Journal's David Rogers reports that Senate Republicans are successfully blocking a measure to help immigrant farm workers establish legal residency, despite strong bipartisan support and the courting of Hispanic voters — particularly in the Southwest. It's a bit dicey for the White House, Rogers writes, Noting that the proposal sounds a little too close to amnesty for President Bush's comfort, particularly in light of the conservative opposition to his own immigration proposal.

Ray Smith of the Wall Street Journal leads the paper with a report that voters have banned together and organized efforts in states from Virginia to Oregon to repeal or slow hikes in property taxes. Voters across the country have grown angry at their local governments, who have imposed big increases in property-tax rates due to cuts in federal revenue and concerns including higher health care and pension costs and funding schools. "For many homeowners, the increases have eaten into benefits they gained from President Bush's cuts in federal income taxes," Smith writes.

The Washington Post's John Harris previews the details of the Democratic convention, centering on a "four-day reintroduction of Sen. John F. Kerry." LINK

"This battle over biography — who is Kerry and what does he stand for? — is at the heart of the convention, strategists in both parties said yesterday. A successful event, they said, would refashion Kerry from someone still defined more heavily by who he is not — Bush — than by his career as a veteran, former prosecutor and a senator with a two-decade record that he says bolsters his claim that he would be an effective advocate for ordinary Americans."

"Even a carefully choreographed convention, however, presents ample opportunity for failure, according to strategists experienced in this distinctive quadrennial ritual of American politics. Among the hazards, particularly in the current highly polarized political environment, is that some on the roster of speakers — a list that includes former president Bill Clinton and former vice president Al Gore on the opening night, July 26, and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.) the next night — will use their moment to deliver partisan invective that will thrill the audience inside Boston's Fleet Center but could strike the television audience as too strident."

The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg looks at how the Notion and execution of the campaign war room have evolved into the high-tech and offensive-prepared Bush-Cheney operation. LINK

Rutenberg mentions something about a second reporter granted access … ah, here it is: LINK

Both papers were allowed to do the fly-on-the-wall thing for a full day in the Bush war room. Outstanding details abound, including the fact that the Bush campaign is often magically able to obtain audio feeds of Kerry speeches.

On the campaign trail and now in the pages of Vogue, Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times looks at how the Bush twins are stepping into the limelight. LINK

The New York Times' Hernandez and Files report on the surprising exclusion of Sen. Hillary Clinton from the list of speakers at this month's Democratic Convention. LINK

One fan of the Clinton's says in response to the story's claims:

"How many 'convention spokeswomen' does it take to screw Hillary Clinton out of a speaking role in Boston? At least two, with a Kerry spokeswoman to hold the ladder."

"Lina Garcia, why don't you go ahead and swivel 180 degrees in that chair (clockwise or counterclockwise, both work — that's the beauty of 'doing a 180') and introduce yourself to your boss Peggy Wilhide — might make message coordination a little easier."

Watch this one continue to play out … .

The morning shows:

Congratulations, Jamie Gangel for scoring (yet) another Bush family exclusive!!! Very hard working of you!!!

And to steal your very own description of her interview subject — the First Lady — the spot was vintage Jamie Gangel: "composed, direct, and on-message."

Asked about Kerry's statement that no young American will go to war needlessly if he is president, Mrs. Bush said, "John Kerry saw exactly the same intelligence that the president saw. He also voted for the resolution to use force against Saddam Hussein as did John Edwards."

"Are they sorry that Saddam Hussein is no longer in power?" she asked.

"I wonder if they are kind of stuck-unable to give credit for anything good that has happened because that would mean giving credit to the president."

Asked if there was any comparison between the abilities of Vice President Cheney and Sen. Edwards, Mrs. Bush scoffed, "Of course not. Absolutely not (laughter)."

Asked if there was "any basis to the speculation that Bush will dump Cheney," Mrs. Bush said, "No. No," and laughed again.

Asked if Ron Reagan is being used by the Democrats, Mrs. Bush said, "I'm not going to say that."

Mrs. Bush dismissed the attacks on her husband from celebrities as "part of what happens."

On Today, Sen. John Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, sat down with Katie Couric. Sen. Edwards explained his vote against the $87 billion while Mrs. Edwards leveled a serious charge against Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Asked about the role Gov. Bush played in the last election, Mrs. Edwards said, "Certainly the administration of Florida had a pretty big role about how the election came out." Asked if he agreed with that, Sen. Edwards said, "Yes."

Sen. Edwards described his (and Kerry's) vote for the Iraq War resolution as "the right vote," saying that "Saddam Hussein being gone is a good thing," while still maintaining that that authority was "abused by the president."

Edwards said he takes "full responsibility for his vote" but he said that he had no control over the coalition or the peace plan that the president put together for winning the peace. "That was and still is his responsibility," Edwards said.

When asked by Couric about whether he and Kerry voted against the $87 billion because they were opposed to the financing or opposed to the policy, Sen. Edwards said, "We were at war. It was clear that none of our allies were being brought into this operation" and that there was "no serious plan to win the peace." Edwards said the Senate was being asked to give the Bush Administration a "stamp of approval." Edwards said that his view was, "No, this is not working. We have to change course."

And Ms. Couric did her best imitation of Ms. Stahl in acting like she was the first journalist to ever pursue this line of questioning.

Sen. Edwards described his personal interactions with Cheney as "perfectly cordial and polite," while still calling him "out of touch with the lives of most Americans."

Sen. Edwards expressed confidence about Kerry's chances in North Carolina, calling the race in his home state "basically a dead heat."

When Couric asked Edwards if he really thought that the people in the Tar Heel State would go for a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts, Edwards said, "Noooooo," broke out into laughter and then began framing Kerry's life in terms that, he said, the people of North Carolina could understand: Someone who got out of college and volunteered for service in Vietnam, someone whom the people whom he served with still look up to today.

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:

Interesting addendum to an e-mail advertising a counter-rally for BC04 in Iowa today:

"We will have signs for you to wave at the event but feel free to make some of your own if you are inspired. Also, we will be riffing on the 'great hair' quote so we'd like to have 'hair-cutting' props like non-aerosol hairspray, or spray bottles filled with water, combs and brushes."

Non-aerosol hairspray is a nice touch.

Who said Mary Beth Cahill doesn't have a sense of humor? In her response to Ken Mehlman's request that the campaign make available a tape of the Radio City Music Hall fundraiser, she concludes: "In light of the fact that the administration began gutting the laws protecting the nation's forests yesterday, we hope you will accept the paper on which this letter is written as an anniversary gift. (The one-year anniversary is known as the 'paper anniversary.'")

The New York Post's Deb Orin reports on yesterday's barbs in the Whoopigate debate. LINK

USA Today's Keen and Lawrence write, "Using the sort of biting rhetoric that candidates usually save for October, the Bush and Kerry presidential campaigns engaged in testy exchanges Tuesday over a star-studded Kerry fundraiser." LINK

The Boston Globe's Raja Mishra highlights the differences between Teresa Heinz Kerry and Elizabeth Edwards, and Notes they could have "potential political consequences." LINK (Ya think?)

The New York Times ' Adam Liptak offers an interesting look at John Edwards' career as a trial lawyer, and both the praise and criticisms it brought him. LINK

One criticism in particular is that Edwards chose his cases very carefully, looking for a combination of clear wrongdoing, grievous injury and high payoffs. And another piece of information we expect to see brought up again: " . . . Mr. Edwards handled no notable pro bono cases, the typical vehicle for lawyers who want to have a larger impact."

James Dao of the New York Times looks at the possible political implications of President Bush choosing not to attend this year's NAACP convention in Philadelphia — and what John Kerry needs to do to energize African-American voters. LINK

Al Kamen of the Washington Post takes a look at how former President Clinton will aid Kerry's campaign. LINK

USA Today's Cesar Soriano profiles the Kerry daughters and has a small sidebar bio-box on the Heinz boys. LINK

Don't miss Michael Wolff's Vanity Fair profile on Bob Shrum and the Shrumification process. An excellent read though, doubtful that Stephanie Cutter is 100 percent pleased.

"You hire him because he's the Brand -- the Cravath, the McKinsey, the CAA of political consultants. Because he is the most inside point of inside the Beltway."

(Except for a Boggs fella we hear about … .)

The pictures of the Boys on their cellphones is priceless.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

In his visit to New Hampshire, Karl Rove said that the Bush-Cheney campaign is doing well just to be competitive in New Hampshire considering that John Kerry is a neighbor with wide name recognition in the state. LINK

"Rove defended Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq and said that although 'we haven't yet found the stockpile' of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, it is clear that 'Saddam Hussein was a danger.'"

"'We do know this. He had the intention (of using weapons of mass destruction) because he created those weapons and used them on his own people and his neighbors.' He said Saddam 'acknowledged he had them in the aftermath of the 1991 war. He housed terrorists; he funded terrorists. He underwrote suicide bombers in Israel at $2,500 a person.'"

"Rove would not speculate on whether Bush would have gone to war had he received accurate intelligence on Saddam Hussein."

"He said Kerry and Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards 'looked at the intelligence and voted for the war,' but then voted against spending $87 billion to support the troops there. He said Kerry said just prior to the vote that opposing the expenditure would be 'irresponsible.'"

George W. Bush is the first president to visit "God's Frozen People" since William H. Taft in 1911. "We don't know what they did when Taft came here, but we wanted to have a nice celebration and show off our community," Marquette resident Kathy Weber told the Detroit News. "It's absolutely an honor, the president coming here." LINK

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank wraps President Bush's trip to Marquette, Mich., and the necessity of this trip. LINK

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney wraps President Bush's campaign stops yesterday in Michigan and Minnesota, during which he sought to paint Sen. Kerry as a "liberal Washington insider" who shares the values of Hollywood celebrities rather than voters and who voted for military action in Iraq and then turned around and refused to support funding it. LINK

Basic coverage from the Minneapolis Star Tribune: LINK

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert previews the President's trip to Wisconsin today. LINK

Bush meets Clinton in Harlem? The New York Daily News reports that Jenna Bush went for a job interview at a Harlem charter school. LINK

The New York Post's Marsha Kranes writes about the twins' summer gigs at their dad's campaign. LINK

USA Today's Cesar Soriano has a profile mentioning Starbucks soy lattes too. LINK

The New York Daily News prints Lenore Skenazy's tongue-and-cheek (and sorta funny!) list of ways you know your veep is in trouble. Ex: "Shaves Exxon logo into chest hair," and "Requests network airtime to warn John Edwards' son, 'Suck that thumb one more time and let's see if it's still attached in the morning.'" LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney v. Kerry-Edwards:

"The House yesterday dealt a sharp blow to a proposed $9.6 billion buyout of tobacco growers, voting to prohibit the use of any government funds for the plan," reports the Washington Post's Dan Morgan. LINK

The Boston Herald reports that it's not just leftists documentaries coming out. "A rich booster of President Bush will unveil a documentary about Democrat John F. Kerry days before his convention coronation — sparking cries of 'political shenanigans' over its focus on Kerry's sole campaign defeat 32 years ago." LINK

"Three days before the Democratic National Convention's kickoff, more than 200 political and media glitterati are expected at the premiere of 'Eclipsed by the Sun: The Political Education of John Kerry' which details Kerry's 1972 congressional loss and the role of news coverage by The Sun of Lowell in his demise."

Patrick Healy of the Boston Globe highlights yesterday back-and-forth between the two presidential campaigns over values. LINK

The conventions:

Initially denied by Clear Channel, Project Billboard has been offered an alternative billboard space by the media giant in Times Square yesterday for a huge antiwar advertisement by the group, reports the New York Times ' Julia Preston. LINK

"One Vilsack will speak," reads the (surprised?) Des Moines Register. LINK

(Worry not, grasshopper … )

The Boston Globe's Rick Klein and Stephen Smith report on the arrival of "chempacks" to New York and Boston in preparation for chemical attacks on the cities during the conventions. LINK

In his reporting on the Democratic convention speakers announcement yesterday, Nick Anderson of the Los Angeles Times shares some additional insight: "A party official speaking on condition of anonymity said most of Kerry's onetime rivals for the nomination, from former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean to the Rev. Al Sharpton, would take a turn at the podium." LINK

The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet Notes that a prominent, though as yet unfinalized, prime time speaking slot has been reserved for Democratic Senate candidate Barack Obama. LINK

The Boston Herald's headline on its convention speakers announcement story analyzes the theme and speakers this way: "Meet Sen. Kerry, aka 'tough guy.'" LINK

"It was still uncertain, however, whether Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio would be given a chance to speak. Kucinich has yet to formally end his candidacy."

"There also was no word on whether the party's 1988 presidential nominee, former Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts, would speak or be honored at the convention in his home state."

The possibility of new highway closures in Boston are feared by locals because of the Democratic National Convention, the Boston Globe reports. LINK

Those of you still scrambling for hotel rooms around Boston for the convention may be in luck, much to the dismay of hoteliers in the immediate suburbs, according to the Boston Globe. "[A]s the date of the convention approached, attendees and organizers firmed up their plans. In some cases, they didn't need all the space they reserved; in others, they found accommodations closer to the FleetCenter, where the convention is being held." LINK

And those offering up their luxurious townhouses have not been taken up on their offers, the Boston Globe's Abraham reports. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: da Senate:

Three questions:

So what's that we hear about Mrs. Ditka maybe changing her mind?

And what about the Draft Ditka folks' claim that half the state central committee or more is willing to back him?

And who's doing the vet?

Newswise, Illinois House Republican leader Tom Cross will throw his support to Ditka at a news conference at the Navy Pier.

The Chicago Sun-Times' Scott Fornek reports that Sen. George Allen, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, flew to Chicago Tuesday to talk to Mike Ditka about how interested he is in running for Senate in Illinois. Fornek also reports that "8 of the 19 members of the panel that will choose Ryan's replacement told the Sun-Times they could see themselves supporting Ditka if he decides to run." LINK

"10 questions about Da Candidate:" LINK

Gwen Florio of the Rocky Mountain News profiles brewery executive and Republican Senate hopeful Pete Coors. LINK

U.S. Senate candidates in Georgia pin their hopes on an anti-abortion message. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: battleground states:

The Arizona Republic says the Dems' decision to feature Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano in the upcoming Boston Convention "underscores Arizona's importance in this year's presidential race." LINK

Lost in the ongoing Yucca Mountain/presidential election debate is the economic impact of the project on Nevada's rural communities. The "anti-Yucca sentiment, which permeates the state, isn't as strong in the counties" that stand to receive "new jobs and federal money," reports the Las Vegas Sun. LINK

The Seattle Times takes Note of yesterday's snubbing of Seattle Rep. Jim McDermott, a Democrat, at the signing of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The Times says McDermott is "known in some diplomatic circle as the 'father of AGOA,'" yet he was not invited to the White House ceremony in "a disappointing cap to years of effort." LINK

Today begins the three-day rollout of KE04's forest health plan, and the proposal is opening to good reviews in Western battleground states like Arizona, Colorado, and Washington — both for its planned impact on forest health and the economic impact it will have on the affected regions. LINK

Chalk up one more place John Kerry won't want to be on Sundays: West Virginia. Yesterday, Bishop Bernard Schmitt of the Catholic Diocese of Wheeling-Charleston announced that he has asked all local priests to deny communion to Catholic politicians "who stray from the church's teachings" on issues like abortion. LINK

The Charleston Gazette reports West Virginia taxpayers are stuck with a $53,000 tab for "various services and materials" related to the President's July Fourth stop in Charleston — and many in the state, including the governor, are trying figure out how to avoid paying the bill. LINK

Also in West Virginia, a new poll says a majority in the state "oppose mountaintop removal mining and Bush administration efforts to weaken restrictions on the practice." Take it with a grain of salt, however: the Charleston Gazette adds that the survey was taken by a Democratic pollster. LINK

Prescription drugs, while a hot topic all over the country, are particularly salient in the battleground of West Virginia. A study released today will claim that citizens of the state "spent 3 percent of their total income on prescription drugs in 2002, second only to Tennessee." LINK

The ongoing saga of the anti-Bush couple arrested at the president's July Fourth visit to West Virginia continues, reports the Charleston Gazette. LINK

Will he be camera shy? Cleveland's WOIO-TV has tapped Ohio Democratic Convention delegate Jerry Springer to serve as a "special correspondent" for the station this month from Boston. Kent State University Prof. Tim Smith told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that "the relationship between the station and Springer creates 'more conflicts of interest and potential conflicts than you could enumerate.'" LINK

Ohio's economic woes will be the focus of Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones' Democratic convention speech, reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer. LINK

The Des Moines Register's low-down on the inundation of Iowa by vice presidents, and those who expect to be. LINK

"Not in my state, not in my county, not in my city, not in my neighborhood." The Detroit News reports city and suburban leaders are putting up a unified front to fight a proposal to legalize medical marijuana, up for a vote in Detroit on Aug. 3. LINK

The AP reports the new law legalizing slot-machine gambling to finance up to $1 billion annually in property-tax cuts has hoisted Gov. Rendell's approval rating. LINK

The politics of same-sex marriage:

The AP's David Espo, who does yeoman's work for journalistic ethics on conference calls, writes that some Republicans are still not giving up hope on the gay marriage amendment. LINK

But Senate Republicans are likely to be defeated in their efforts on behalf of the Federal Marriage Amendment, reports the New York Times' Carl Hulse, Noting that "both Republican and Democratic lawmakers said backers of the amendment, which has the strong support of President Bush, were struggling to line up even a simple majority of 51 senators on their side." LINK

The Washington Times bemoans . . . LINK

Nedra Pickler of the AP Notes that Sens. Kerry and Edwards may miss the vote. LINK

Who are the Senators who want to take both sides of every issue? The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports this morning that "[b]oth of Ohio's U.S. senators are poised to vote today in favor" of the gay marriage amendment, "they said, but both are hoping they don't have to." LINK

The Wall Street Journal ed board wants it all to be left up to the nation's legislators, not its judges.

USA Today point/counterpoints the issue with the paper in favor and Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) writing opposed. LINK and LINK

The Rocky Mountain News' Gwen Florio reports that the Coors Brewing Co. is running a new ad on the proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Pete Coors supports the amendment. The company does not, and is distancing itself from Coors' "personal beliefs." LINK

The Log Cabin Republicans are blasting President Bush but have yet to announce which presidential candidate it will endorse this summer. LINK

The Washington Post's ed board writes "the reason the Senate is moving forward is politics of a particularly crass and ugly sort: Gay marriage has become a national electoral issue. And Republicans believe it is one that can help President Bush, who has come out in favor of the amendment, and make life difficult for Sen. John F. Kerry (D), who not only opposes it but also hails from the very state — Massachusetts — whose highest court provoked the current showdown with a decision legalizing same-sex marriage." LINK

Gay rights activists are divided over "outing" of homosexual staffers of lawmakers who support a gay marriage ban. "They want to make us second-class citizens, and gay people are aiding and abetting in the effort," John Aravosis, a political consultant and gay activist tells the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. LINK

Kushner indicted, morning shows rejoice:

U.S. Attorney Christopher J. Christie's crusade against corruption in New Jersey politics continued Tuesday with the indictment of yet another big fish. Developer Charles Kushner, a major fundraiser/contributor for the Democratic Party, was charged with conspiracy, obstruction of a federal investigation and interstate promotion of prostitution. On the latter charge, Kushner is accused of hiring a call girl for a cooperating federal witness and videotaping their encounter in an effort to blackmail the witness.

Kushner has a history of being a big player in N.J. politics, but he has also made a splash in national politics. One of his biggest contributions came in 2002 when he gave $1 million to the DNC and $200,000 to the DSCC. Sens. Hillary Clinton, John Corzine, Chuck Schumer, Rep. Robert Menendez and former Senator Robert Torricelli have all been great beneficiaries of Mr. Kushner's kindness over the years.

John Kerry, along with fellow Democratic presidential candidates Howard Dean and Joe Lieberman, has also had the honor of receiving funds from Kushner in the past year. State Republicans in the Garden State are already calling for Governor James McGreevey and other state Dems to return contributions from Kushner. Is it just a matter of time for Republicans outside New Jersey to demand the same?]

How close will this come to Gov. McGreevey, even with Christie's firm statement that l'affair Kushner is not connected to him in any way?

The New York Post's Calder and Kuntzman write, "In a scenario right out of a pulp crime novel, real-estate developer Charles Kushner — who was aware he was being pursued by the feds for tax fraud and illegal campaign contributions — personally offered the hooker up to $10,000 to do the dirty deed on tape with the witness, U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie said." LINK

And the New York Post's Frederic Dicker profiles Kushner. LINK

See also: LINK and LINK and LINK and LINK

The politics of national security:

Many members of Congress, Republican and Democrat, are doing a lot of soul-searching about their 2002 vote giving President Bush the authority to go to war in Iraq, the Los Angeles Times' Mary Curtius reports. During a week when the president is back on the stump hailing pre-emption, Republicans and Democrats agree that knowing what they know now will now make the Senate less likely to authorize such force without more proof in the future. LINK

Despite insistences from government officials and presidential candidates of both parties that a military draft will not be re-instated, the Los Angeles Times reports that din is growing larger among Americans thinking it's a possibility. LINK

Catastrophes and elections:

The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib looks at all the talk about the possibility of terrorism disrupting this fall's elections, criticizing the Bush Administration for sending confusing signals and creating the impression that it's mixing politics with the war on terrorism.

ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:

The Washington Post's Dan Keating reports "members of liberal groups rallied in 19 states yesterday to demand that new electronic voting terminals have paper receipts to ensure accurate election recounts in the November presidential race." LINK

Nader-Camejo:

The AP reports the conservative group Citizens for Sound Economy will try again to help Nader win a spot on Oregon's presidential ballot, this time by collecting petition signatures. Nader's campaign spokesman in Oregon says there has been no collaboration between Nader and CSE. "I can't stop anybody who wants to help us," Kafoury said. "But we have never asked anyone for help who does not support Ralph Nader's efforts on their merits." LINK

Nader on the horn and on the record with Salon editor David Talbot (and Kevin Zeese listening in for good measure) "about recent articles that have appeared in Salon concerning him and his candidacy." A full transcript of their conversations is posted online. LINK

Talbot: Your candidacy. Because here's the story — and for some reason you feel stung by this — we take your campaign seriously. Salon, perhaps alone among the national media, thinks you and your campaign should be given the scrutiny that every serious presidential candidate is given.

Nader: [Laughs.] Are you serious? Do you hear Kevin laughing? We're skewered to the wall every day, every hour, by every conceivable media. Don't make yourself something special. If you really take our campaign seriously, why don't you support our right to be on the ballot and not dirty-tricked by the Democrats?

In Michigan, things are looking very good for Nader to collect his 30,000-plus signatures …

The Hartford Courant profiles the increasing campaign turbulence for Nader. LINK

Demanding an apology for an "obscene racial epitaph" at a tense meeting last month, Nader has angered the Congressional Black Caucus. LINK

Nader is gearing up to collect 153,000 signatures in three weeks to make the California ballot. Nader's running mate, Peter Camejo, who hails from Folsom, Calif. told the Sacramento Bee many of his old friends in the Green Party are discouraging his campaign, and supporting John Kerry for president. "There's a lot of harsh feelings," he added. "It's like a cold split now within the Green Party." LINK

Nader will visit O'ahu and Maui this weekend. He visited Hawaii during his 2000 campaign. LINK

Politics:

The Washington Times serenades potential 2008 candidate Mitt Romney: LINK

Roll Call serenades the unsung advance man. LINK

Congratulations William Marshall Jr. on your occasion to order new DNC business cards! LINK

Stanford political science professor Morris Fiorina argues in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the culture wars have been greatly overstated. "There is no culture war in the U.S. — no battle for the soul of America rages, at least none that most Americans are aware of."

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:30 am: The Commerce Department releases the retail sales report for June
—9:15 am: Sens. Byron Dorgan, Olympia Snowe, John McCain, and AARP members urge passage of a bill to legalize importation of FDA approved prescription drugs at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.
—9:30 am: The Senate convenes for morning business
—9:30 am: The Senate Rules and Administration Committee holds a hearing on the Federal Election Commission
—10:00 am: President Bush speaks at the Waukesha County Exposition Center, Waukesha, Wis.
—10:00 am: The House convenes for morning business
—10:00 am: Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on "Examining the Impacts of Drug Importation" at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.
—11:30 am: First Lady Laura Bush takes part in a reading roundtable and media availability at Hueytown Elementary School, Hueytown, Ala.
—11:30 am: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, Boston Police Commissioner Kathy O'Toole, City of Boston Homeland Security Director Carlo Boccia, and Boston Mayor Thomas Menino tour delegate venues at the Fleet Center for the Democratic Convention, Boston, Mass.
—12:00 pm: The Senate holds a cloture vote on whether to stop debate of the Federal Marriage Amendment
—12:00 pm: Kerry-Edwards Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill, campaign co-chair and former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman, and UniWorld Group executive Chuck Morrison unveil the Kerry-Edwards' campaign's advertising geared toward African-Americans, Washington, D.C.
—12:00 pm: Rep. Marty Meehan and others announce legislation that would reform the operations of the House and increase lobbying restrictions and disclosure requirements at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.
—12:10 pm: First Lady Laura Bush attends an RNC fundraiser luncheon, Birmingham, Ala.
—12:15 pm: Secretary Ridge, Commissioner O'Toole, Mayor Menino and other city leaders hold a news conference on security at the Democratic convention at the Fleet Center, Boston, Mass.
—12:30 pm: Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney addresses the National Press Club on "Presidential Politics: A Perspective from the States," Washington, D.C.
—1:00 pm: Sens. Wayne Allard, John Cornyn, Gordon Smith, and Sam Brownback hold a news conference following the Federal Marriage Amendment vote at Russell Park, Washington, D.C.
—1:15 pm: "Let's Get Frank," a documentary about Rep. Barney Frank, opens at Film Forum, New York, N.Y.
—1:30 pm: President Bush participates in an "Ask President Bush" event at the Mid-States Aluminum Corporation, Fond du Lac, Wis.
—1:30 pm: Secretary of State Colin Powell addresses the Board of Directors of Business Council for International Understanding, Washington, D.C.
—2:00 pm: Sen. John Edwards attends a rally at the Iowa State Capitol, Des Moines, Iowa
—2:30 pm: The Senate Select Intelligence Committee holds a briefing on intelligence matters at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.
—2:30 pm: The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space meets to discuss adult stem cell research at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.
—6:00 pm: Former Gov. Howard Dean hosts the first Washington D.C. fundraiser for Democracy for America, Washington, D.C.
—6:30 pm: First Lady Laura Bush attends an RNC fundraiser dinner, Greensboro, Ga.
—7:05 pm: President Bush speaks at a rally at the Brown County Veterans Memorial Complex Ashwaubenon, Wis.
—8:45 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a Kerry/Edwards fundraiser reception at the Hilton Hotel, Chicago, Ill.
—10:40 pm: President Bush returns to the White House