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the note
The Money Pit...
...Stuck In Democratic Throats

By Mark Halperin, Marc Ambinder, David Chalian, Brooke Brower, Alexander Blenkinsopp and Teddy Davis.
ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N June 27—
Do the nation's political reporters lust for a close presidential election?

2003 Note Archives, updated weekly.

Click here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and today's daybook.

E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints and Questions.

Who we are ... And What We're About.

NEWS SUMMARY

Of course they do.

Is it wrong to take the election away from the voters by declaring the contest over before the voting has even started?

Of course it is.

So and still, many of our more liberal readers wonder why we consistently front stories that emphasize just how gargantuan the president's money advantage will be.

They complain that (a) money means less "spiritually" to Democrats than it does to Republicans; that (b) a majority of Americans will somehow open their eyes and get it into their heads that President Bush is the most evil force since, well, evil was invented; and that, (c), by talking up the saliency of the Bush money machine, we participate in the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We say that it's incumbent upon those of us who write and talk about politics to describe the current snapshot conditions of a race.

And while issues, tactics, strategies, ads, personalities, luck, and all sorts of other things will play a role in determining who wins the election, in politics, as in life, you can't be too rich or too well-funded, and the fundraising disparity between George Bush and his Democratic opponent TBD is going to be historically mammoth.

The fact that Democrats are scrambling — often literally — to raise their own campaign cash, but also to cooperate, to raise money together, and to spend money sensibly, is a good proof of how desperate the situation is for them.

Last night, the Bush campaign decided to put out its projected second-quarter fundraising numbers, and they are pretty darn good.

By our count, the Bush-Cheney '04 re-election effort has raised at least $13.3 million going into today.

That's pretty amazing.

Even more amazing are the millions more they've apparently collected under the radar — through web solicitations and direct mail. (We tried to warn you … )

Fournier gets Ms. Devenish sounding all prepared statement-y:

"'Thanks to the energy and enthusiasm of our supporters around the country, we expect to be able to report between $27 million and $30 million for the current filing period' which ends June 30, said Bush-Cheney campaign spokeswoman Nicolle Devenish." LINK

"By contrast, the entire nine-person Democratic field may manage to raise $30 million combined in the same filing period."

The New York Times ' Stevenson sees in the release of the figure an attempt to intimidate would-be Democratic donors. LINK

"Republican strategists said Mr. Bush had set out to raise a lot of money quickly, both to take advantage of his current postwar popularity and to try to dispirit his potential Democratic rivals and, perhaps more importantly, their financial backers. To the degree that Mr. Bush's fund-raising advantage adds to any perception that he will be very difficult to beat, the strategists said, it could lead Democratic donors to hesitate to contribute or to be reluctant to make the maximum individual donation of $2,000."

Greg Hitt in the Wall Street Journal briefs the number as well.

The president attends two fundraisers in California today. The first, in San Francisco, is expected to raise about $1.6 million, according to press accounts. The second, and larger event will be held at the Century Plaza hotel in Los Angeles. That'll raise, according to some rough calculations, about $3.5 million, give or take a few hundred thousand. (Both are expanded pool, meaning anyone who travels with the White House press corps can attend, and local media get to send person per outlet. The Note applauds these rules of the game.).

And the attempts to keep the money rolling in continue unabated … .

An e-mail solicitation from Vice President Cheney urging folks to become charter members of the campaign is making the rounds.

Excerpt: "When President Bush was elected, he came to office determined to bring dignity and honor to the White House and to change the tone in Washington. In the face of enormous challenges, the president has made good on both goals. We've worked with Congress to pass tax cuts that are vital to economic growth, a major education reform package, important strengthening of our armed forces and our intelligence capabilities, and vital upgrades in our homeland defenses. It's a good start, but there is much more to be done. That is why the president is running for reelection. President Bush is a man who finishes what he starts."

As he and only a few others can do, the Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein adds vigor to this by-now pat theme:

"Bush is working to raise at least $170 million for a primary campaign in which he's virtually certain to face no significant opposition. At the same time, the Democrats face the prospect of a highly competitive nomination fight that could leave their nominee strapped for cash when it is resolved, analysts in both parties say." LINK

"That advantage could threaten Democrats most dramatically just after they settle on their nominee, which likely will occur in late February or early March, following a spate of primaries."

"At that point, Democrats could face a nightmare scenario: a nominee with little money left after a bruising primary fight; a Democratic National Committee weakened by the ban on the unlimited contributions known as "soft" money that previously accounted for most of its budget, and a president sitting on more cash than any White House candidate ever."

"Taken together, these developments could allow Bush to spend massive sums to tar Democratic nominee and burnish his own image in key states. The Democrats, meanwhile, would be unable to come close to matching Bush's spending. This disparity could last until the 2004 Democratic convention in late July. 'It is a massive disadvantage for us, no question about it,' said Jim Jordan, presidential campaign manager for Senator John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) 'It is going to be a long, cold, wet spring for the [Democratic] nominee.'"

"This imposing scenario is already inspiring a flurry of activity on both sides."

"Donna Brazile, Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000, said she is urging the Democratic presidential contenders to slash their spending — so that whoever wins has more left next year."

"At the same time, several Democratic interest groups are trying to organize independent spending campaigns for the nominee next spring and summer. Under the campaign finance law Bush signed last year, these efforts still could be funded with soft-money donations — as long as the politicking is not coordinated with the nominee's campaign and ends 60 days before the general election."

"In the most ambitious such effort, Harold M. Ickes, a top reelection strategist for President Clinton in 1996, is hoping to raise tens of millions of dollars from donors who previously funneled soft money to the DNC and other party committees."

"The Bush team, for its part, is exploring the possibilities created by the unprecedented funds it is rapidly collecting."

"One Republican familiar with White House thinking said the Bush campaign is not inclined to begin its advertising as early as did Clinton, whose first reelection commercials aired in mid-1995."

"But the well-connected Republican said that when the Bush campaign does begin advertising, it will invest not only in the states both sides have decided are battlegrounds — such as Florida was in 2000 — but 'some that weren't close' to voting for the GOP ticket in that year's contest. The source did not specify these states, but other analysts have said they could include California, New York and New Jersey."

"Bush's likely financial advantage over the Democratic nominee recalls Clinton's edge over Republican Bob Dole in 1996 — though on a vastly greater scale."

"Dole emerged from his party's nomination fight that April allowed to spend only $1.2 million until the GOP convention in August. Clinton, meanwhile, had millions to spend."

"But unlike Bush, Clinton participated in the public financing system for the primary season, which meant he accepted a pre-convention spending limit of $37 million."

The AP's Reichmann looks at tonight:

"President Bush will fatten his $30 million campaign wallet during a 10-hour stay in California on Friday." LINK

"Bush's first stop Friday was in suburban San Francisco for a $2,000-a-plate luncheon. However, two-thirds of the $5 million he was expected to pick up in the state was to come from an upscale dinner for about 1,800 at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles, according to Republican officials."

The Washington Wire of the Wall Street Journal says, "Bush may match all the Democrats combined, after two weeks of appeals ranging from the high-tech community to the religious right. Venture capitalist Floyd Kvamme joins Bush in Silicon Valley Friday, while Orthodox Rabbi Daniel Lapin asks friends to send checks via Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff."

"Bush 'needs our prayers,' the rabbi says, 'but that is not all he needs.'"

As for the Democrats, the Wire puts it bluntly: "The Lieberman camp predicts a showing near $4 million — which party insiders would consider a setback, after an urgent final appeal to donors. Kerry and Edwards forecast $5 million hauls, below their first-quarter totals. Dean hopes to keep pace, and expects a boost from antiwar voters in Friday's MoveOn.org online-primary results."

So let's put all this aside, and assume for the sake of padding the length of The Note, that Democrats somehow were able to amass a warchest that competes with the president.

What about the issue agenda?

Bush successfully co-opted education in 2000 — just ask any NEA political adviser.

"'And now Medicare,' GOP pollster Bill McInturff told Ron Fournier. "'If the economy is just a little bit better than it is now, and the president still enjoys an advantage on national security, and we pass a Medicare prescription drug plan, what exactly is the rationale for replacing him?'" LINK

"The play-on-their-turf strategy helped get Bush elected in 2000, and is key to his re-election plans," Fournier Notes.

"But his maneuvers on Medicare have angered some conservative Republicans while Democratic presidential candidates vow to expose Bush as a policy fraud."

Note Note: if Bush somehow manages to lose the extraordinary support he gets from rank and file conservatives, we are quite confident it won't be because he signed a Medicare bill; it won't be because of the farm bill; it won't be because of steel tariffs.

And we are quite confident Karl Rove thinks the same thing.

The media has a propensity to see "trouble in the base" every time Gary Bauer sends out a press release trashing Bush on, say, Israel.

That misunderstands the fundamental hold Mr. Bush has on his core adherents.

Unless the Democrats can get the president's support among Republicans and conservatives down below 85%, it will be hard to keep this election close. There's still plenty of time to do that, but the trajectory would have to change.

With little or no news coming out of yesterday's environmental forum of Democratic candidates, let's move on (shall we say) to today.

The MoveOn primary results are due to be announced at noon today. The gut feeling of most interested parties is that Dr. Dean will not get to 50%, but no one really knows.

Also today, White House counsel Alberto Gonzales addresses NALEO; Senators Lieberman and Graham have a NALEO forum in the morning.

Tonight, Howard Dean has a fundraiser at the Wyndham Bel Age, which, according to our Mapquesting monkeys, is about three and a half miles from the Century Plaza hotel whence Mr. Bush will be a few hours later.

Tomorrow, Senators Edwards and Kerry; Congressmen Gephardt and Kucinich; Governor Dean and Reverend Sharpton participate in the second part of the National NALEO forum series, moderated by New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, in Phoenix.

In Nashville, Senator Bob Graham keynotes the Tennessee Democrats' Jackson Dinner.

Matt Gephardt, son of the congressman, campaigns in New Hampshire on behalf of his father.

Sunday, Senator Kerry attends the Washington State Democratic Party's Annual Albert D. Rossellini Dinner in Tacoma, Washington. The aforementioned Governor Richardson keynotes and Adele Graham speaks at the Florida Democrats Jefferson-Jackson Gala in Hollywood, Florida,

Elizabeth Edwards campaigns in Iowa City, Iowa. And Governor Dean tours New Hampshire in a bus.

Here's the Columbia State's tribute to Senator Thurmond. LINK

And the Charleston Post and Courier's report. LINK

MoveOn:

Will Lester of the Associated Press monitors the virtual primary, Noting that "[no] matter who finishes first in the online presidential primary, the Democratic candidates are counting on thousands of potential volunteers, donors and campaign dollars from the Internet event." LINK

The results are to be announced in a conference call at noon.

MoveOn's press machine says that computers "tallied 317,639 votes cast in its first-ever on-line Democratic primary-a number that surpasses the combined totals of the 2000 Democratic Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries."

Duh. the New York Times editorial page LOVES MoveOn: LINK

"This is about the time in the presidential election calendar when anyone from state parties to third-grade classes starts taking straw polls. The MoveOn effort is more extensive than most — enthusiasts clicked on for the two-day primary that drew more than 300,000 voters. The virtual tally — results of which were not expected until today — would top the combined turnouts in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in 2000."

"There were complaints about some of MoveOn's electioneering strictures, and this is but a baby step in field testing the Web's possible role for democracy. But it does provide a glimpse into politics of the future. After coming into being with an Internet petition against President Clinton's impeachment, MoveOn has become an electronic precinct machine, steadily attracting more than one million enrolled members with criticisms of the Bush administration and quietly raising more than $7 million for Democratic candidates. If a contender can draw at least 50 percent in the elbow-throwing field, the result will mean a formal endorsement with money and volunteers to follow."

ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

Paul Krugman gets all the way through a preview of an upcoming Washington Monthly story about the alleged rise of one-party Republican rule without typing the word "Rove" (although he does manage more than one "DeLay."). LINK

"A majority of New Yorkers think President Bush will win a second term in 2004, but a nearly similar percentage predict that his Democratic challenger will capture the state, according to a statewide poll released Thursday," reports the AP's Marc Humbert. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary, Medicare:

Four of the six congressional Democratic presidential candidates voted against the prescription drug bill. Senators Lieberman and Kerry did not vote because they were at the LCV forum in Los Angeles. In a statement, Lieberman said he supported the bill.

Lieberman said, "This bill is a first step toward answering the prayers of our seniors who are struggling to pay for drugs they need to live longer and healthier lives. But my vote is not an enthusiastic endorsement; we cannot ignore the substantial weaknesses in this proposal. It has an enormous gap in coverage that leaves millions of low-income seniors without the help they need. Premiums may vary from plan to plan. Some seniors may be forced to go round and round in a revolving door, changing plans as private plans come and go. And seniors covered under employer-based retiree plans would not get the catastrophic benefit they need."

"One of my first acts as President will be to fix this bill before it goes into effect in 2006. The best way to achieve significant Medicare reform is to lay this foundation today and then fix the roof tomorrow under my presidency."

[Note Note: The Senator's use of the word "vote" is curious, since he did not actually "vote" on the bill.]

Senator Edwards voted "no." Senator Graham, who canceled his scheduled appearance at the LCV forum so that he could stay in D.C. to vote, voted "no."

On the south end of the Capitol, Representatives Gephardt and Kucinich both voted "no" in the House.

Gephardt said in a statement, "I oppose the Medicare prescription drug proposals pending before the House and Senate because they both fail to provide seniors with a meaningful, affordable and guaranteed benefit. Both bills take dangerous steps toward privatizing Medicare. The House bill goes even further than the Senate bill by undermining Medicare's central promise of a consistent benefit for every senior."

More Julie Teer missed Medicare vote bashing in the Manchester Union Leader, except this time, the Kerry campaign isn't sticking to its rule that it'll only respond to candidate Bush, rather than his political surrogates.

"State GOP spokesman Julie Teer said Senator John Kerry, D-Mass., missed at least 29 votes as of last evening, and Senator Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., 27 votes." LINK

"For Kerry, 'That's every single vote the Senate has had" on the issue, Teer said.'"

"Yet, Teer said, Kerry went to the Senate floor last Friday and questioned the bill, calling it 'a good start' and 'a good foundation,' but saying 'it doesn't fulfill the full measure of the promise of comprehensive, affordable and guaranteed" health care.'"

"'There are crucial areas I would hope we would try to find a way to improve,' Kerry said."

"Teer responded, 'If he were serious about reforming Medicare and improving the bill, he ought to actually show up for work and vote, instead of pontificating for political gain.'"

"'I don't know about the number of votes,' countered Kerry spokesman Judy Reardon. 'But John Kerry makes sure he is present to vote any time there is going to be a close vote where his vote would matter.' Reardon said Kerry checked with Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle on Tuesday night regarding Wednesday's votes."

Note, too, the "Janno" misspelling, at least in the online version of the story.

The Boston Globe 's Wayne Washington reports on the Medicare votes, and Notes Senator Kerry did not take part. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

"Environmental issues have not played much of a role so far in the presidential campaign, which is not surprising, given opinion polls that find conservation issues rank far behind such concerns as the economy, education and terrorism. The 90-minute session on the UCLA campus was an effort to change that," the Los Angeles Times' Barabak and Bustillo write. LINK

"The five candidates who participated virtually ignored one another, despite the urging of the moderator, radio broadcaster Warren Olney, to explain the differences among themselves. Instead, they spoke in practically one voice as they called for expanded use of alternative fuels, stronger auto mileage standards, tougher enforcement of clean air and water regulations, and 'environmental justice' to ease the blight of pollution in poor neighborhoods."

"Although several of the candidates criticized Bush for a failure of leadership on the environment, they balked when asked what sacrifices they might ask of the American people. Kerry — who noted that he rode to the event in an electric car — said he would ask the country to give up its 'bad habits' and 'selfishness' to boost energy self-sufficiency, but never elaborated. Instead, he and the others suggested that innovation and technology could help the country overcome its heavy reliance on foreign oil and other sources of pollution."

Quick: how many presidentials drive around in SUVs? How many miles per gallon does a Harley chug? Tim Griffin? Anyone? As president, will you move your Secret Service CAT soldiers to a Geo Metro? The MILAIDE to a Mercury?

The Hartford Courant's David Lightman writes that "Thursday's presidential debate became a forum for Democratic candidates to show their deep lifelong loyalty to environmental causes, but it was about much more — like trying to bond with the Democratic voters in what could be the nation's make-or-break state next year." LINK

"Because of its size and its strategically important place on the nominating calendar, winning California's March 2, 2004 primary is likely to be crucial for the nine rivals for the Democratic nod."

"The forum, the sixth time in the last 10 days there have been such multi-candidate affairs, followed a predictable format, the same seen at other events."

"Each has been sponsored by a key interest group loyal to or within the party-or, as was the case Wednesday night, by the party itself at a gala Washington fundraising dinner. June 17, for instance, it was the New Democrat Network, the party moderates. Saturday, it was small town Iowans who jammed the gymnasium at their local high school, and Sunday, it was the Rev. Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH Coalition."

"At each stop, the candidates tout their records, trying to convince everyone they have been loyal moderates, Iowans, and now environmentalists most of their lives."

"This state also matters because it has the most convention delegates and one expressway to their hearts is through the forests, trees and oceans."

And is the Colliding (of Columbia) going to be in hibernation until 1/1/04?

Here's how/when we might find out.

"Five Democratic presidential candidates have accepted invitations to The Des Moines Register 's presidential debate in January, while three others say they probably will attend," the Des Moines Register 's Beaumont self-referentializes. LINK

"Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, U.S. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and New York community activist the Rev. Al Sharpton plan to be in Iowa for the Jan. 4, 2004, event."

"The Register has sponsored presidential debates since 1980. In 2000, conservative activist Gary Bauer, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, businessman Steve Forbes, U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch, commentator Alan Keyes and U.S. Senator John McCain participated in the Register's Republican debate. The Register also held a Democratic debate featuring then-Vice President Al Gore and former U.S. Senator Bill Bradley."

Senate Democrats "pressed the flesh and made sure their presence was known" at a Congressional Black Caucus conference yesterday, Roll Call 's Nicole Duran reported. LINK

"At least one presidential aspirant used the opportunity to forge alliances with leaders who could be instrumental in helping him secure his party's nomination."

"Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) made sure he was acknowledged during introductions and then proceeded to work the crowd."

"Notably absent were the two black presidential hopefuls, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (Ill.) and the Rev. Al Sharpton."

DEAN

The AP's Steven Paulson reports on Governor Dean's visit to Denver, where he "said Denmark gets 20 percent of its electric power from wind generators, and suggested the United States should aim for 10 percent over the next two decades." LINK

The Washington Times ' Greg Pierce reports that Ed Gillespie "took a shot" at Howard Dean yesterday. LINK

"Howard Dean positions his opposition to the war as an act of 'political courage' and says he was 'right all along,' and other presidential contenders are following his lead,' Mr. Gillespie said in a prepared statement.'"

Jake Tapper's New York Times ' op-ed piece defends Howard Dean's "Meet" appearance. LINK

EDWARDS

John Wagner packs his lead in today's Raleigh News & Observer with just about every Beach Boys song reference possible. Mr. Wagner reports the band is helping Senator Edwards close out the quarter in Los Angeles on Monday. LINK

"On Monday, U.S. Senator John Edwards will be surrounded by California girls. He's likely to be feeling good vibrations and having fun, fun, fun. And he may ask himself: Wouldn't it be nice to be president of the United States?"

"This is all possible because the Beach Boys are scheduled to provide entertainment for the North Carolina Democrat at a backyard fund-raiser in Los Angeles."

Wagner writes, Edwards "is expected to be among the more successful in the second quarter, though aides have been tamping down expectations in recent days."

GRAHAM

The Boston Globe runs a letter from Christie Whitman, responding to Senator Bob Graham's June 9th op-ed on the Bush Administration's environmental policy and the Everglades (Whitman finds the candidate's accusations "unfounded."). LINK

Slate's Will Saletan looks at Senator Bob Graham's buzzwords. LINK

KERRY

The San Jose Mercury News reports, "Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign picked up a key California endorsement Friday from state treasurer Phil Angelides, who called Kerry a longtime 'role model' with broad voter appeal in California and the ability to beat President George W. Bush in 2004." LINK

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson reports that Clinton Defense Secretary William Perry has endorsed John Kerry, with the explanation "'The deciding factor for me was his very strong role in national security.'" LINK

Johnson quotes Kerry's weighty statement of gratitude: "'One of the missions of this campaign is to return to the tough-minded strategy of international engagement and leadership forged by Wilson and Roosevelt in two world wars and championed by Truman and Kennedy in the Cold War … Those Democrats spoke out for an America strong because of its ideals as well as its arms, and [Perry] shares my frustration that any Democrat would forget that tradition, disengage from the debate, or concede an inch to the Republicans on the question of how you keep Americans safe. [He] has a grasp of foreign policy and national security as strong as they come.'"

The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove follows up on the point made by "self-styled muckraker Bernardo Issel of NonprofitWatch.org" that Enron's Kenneth Lay, frequently attacked by Senator Kerry (Lloyd provides some examples..), sits on the board of Teresa Heinz Kerry's environmentally-interested Heinz Center. LINK

Heinz spokesperson Chris Black picks the gray from the black and white: "'Whatever troubles he had at Enron, Ken Lay had a good reputation in the environmental community for being a businessman who was environmentally sensitive. When someone does wrong in one part of their life, it doesn't mean they can't do good in another part of their life.'"

Another potential down-the-road disaster purged early!!!

KUCINICH

In the manner of Christopher Columbus, Congressman Kucinich has concluded his "'exploratory campaign'" and is pressing ahead with his quest for the presidency despite "the long odds," reports Tom Dierner of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. LINK

"'We are absolutely not folding any tents,' campaign press secretary Jeff Cohen said in an e-mail. 'In fact, our support base and fund raising are growing.' His campaign announced yesterday that Kucinich has passed the $1 million mark in contributions and has hired three 'top professionals' to join the candidate's national staff."

Congressman Kucinich had an amendment in the House which would have authorized an inquiry into Vice President's role vis-a-vis the CIA and pre-war intelligence, and, Walter Pincus of the Washington Post reports, that amendment was soundly defeated. LINK

And the AP too covers this. LINK

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Jodi Wilogren's New York Times round-up of all the state budget problems is overshadowed by a picture — supposedly of Governor Craig Benson, but, for careful Note readers, it is more obviously of FRAN WENDELBOE!!! LINK

California recall:

The Democratic members of the California congressional delegation, including Leader Pelosi, will be holding a 10:15 am press conference this morning at the Cannon House Office building to discuss the recall effort.

The AP's Beth Fouhy burned up California's phone lines to explore how the Democratic presidential candidates are handling the recall issue. Ms. Fouhy discovered they are walking a fine line. LINK

"At first glance, the drive to recall the unpopular Democratic governor seems like a controversy to avoid. Davis is getting most of the blame for a staggering $35 billion budget deficit, and his approval ratings have plummeted to an all-time low of 25 percent." "Standing up for the Democrat would seem to be politically toxic for any White House hopeful."

"'None of them wants to get pulled into it at all,' said longtime California Democratic strategist Garry South, who is working for presidential candidate Joe Lieberman."

"Political analysts argue that the Democratic candidates who speak out strongly about the unfairness of the recall, while keeping their distance from Davis, could score points with Democratic voters."

In addition to Mr. South, all those California operatives who have hitched themselves to presidential campaigns are quoted in the story. Gallegos, Carrick, and Lehane (with some nice alliteration) all get some play.

Cyber-columnist Mindy Tucker makes a cameo to offer up this:

"The Democrats have failed this state, and it's time for a change," she said. "That's a message that will help Republicans running against Davis in the recall, running for state Assembly, and it will certainly help the president's re-election."

The San Francisco Chronicle's Robert Salladay writes up the anti-recall effort to distract those gathering signatures in favor of the recall from doing their jobs.LINK

"Opponents of the move to recall Gov. Gray Davis are asking their supporters to intimidate signature gatherers and complain of harassment at stores where recall petitions are circulating, stepping up the political battle taking place in front of Wal-Marts and Home Depots across California."

"In an e-mail message and Internet posting titled 'How to Advocate Against the Recall,' Davis supporters were told, 'It is OK to stand in front of their table or approach potential signers before they do, or otherwise inhibit their activity.' The memo instructs people to say they are 'offended by being harassed' and file complaints with managers of stores."

"'Remember, the longer you engage them, the fewer signatures they can collect,' said the memo distributed by Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall, a union-funded group. The memo also includes a telephone hot line to report the location of recall petition circulators."

FERC voted to uphold California's energy contracts and the Wall Street Journal ed board couldn't be happier.

"The pols, notably Governor Gray Davis, had signed the long-term contracts in full control of their faculties. As evidence uncovered by FERC showed, Mr. Davis thought he was getting a steal at the time, locking in more than $12 billion in contracts when energy supplies were uncertain. But when prices later fell, Mr. Davis did his typical buck-passing routine by trying to weasel out of the deal."

"It's a shame that California residents are now having to pay for Mr. Davis's fecklessness. But then again, they re-elected him even after watching him pull these energy stunts. If they now want to make amends for that expensive mistake, they are going to have to recall him."

Big Casino budget politics:

Robert Pear and Robin Toner of the New York Times stayed up late. LINK

A trio of Wall Street Journal reporters look at the substance of the Medicare plans and why the time is right from the lobbyists' point of view.

USA Today 's Walter Shapiro looks at the prescription-drug benefit and thinks "the devil is in the details." LINK

"Medicare recipients will be dismayed to learn that they will not receive a penny of government help with their drug bills until 2006. Then there are the weird gaps in coverage."

Joshua "Josh" Bolten was confirmed by the full Senate without debate to head the OMB. LINK

Politics:

Adam Segal of John Hopkins University's Hispanic Voter Project will release a new report today:

Exclusive to Note readers, here are the first paragraphs:

"Hispanic voters will play a historic new role in the early Democratic presidential primaries next year. For the first time, two states with large, growing Hispanic populations, New Mexico (Hispanics are 42.1% of the population) and Arizona (25.3%), will hold primaries or caucuses on the same date in the first multi-state round of Democratic presidential contests, February 3, 2004 — Hispanic Tuesday."

"With a large competitive field of Democratic candidates now in place, the growing Hispanic communities in early primary states have greater ability to influence the outcome of primaries than at any previous time. This means that earlier than ever before, and at a higher rate than ever before, Hispanics in key electoral states will be part of some of the important first primaries, wielding more deciding influence on which candidate will represent the Democratic Party in the general election."

The Washington Post 's Craig Timberg reports that Virginia Congressman Tom Davis (R-Almanac of American Politics) is working on a plan that would add two seats to the U.S. House, and give one to the people of the District of Columbia. LINK

Michael "The People, Not the Powerful" Feldman buys property within the range of a Lauriol Plaza pager. LINK

To paraphrase Garrett Morris (or is it Kathleen Connery?): the Glover Park Group has been very, very good to Mike Feldman.

The Clintons of Chappaqua:

The New York Post 's Vincent Morris addresses fundraiser and Senator George Allen's quest to fight the "'danger' posed by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton becoming her party's next Senate leader" should Daschle step down. LINK

Morris quotes Allen's fundraising letter, which warns "'Hillary Clinton's ambition and prolific fund-raising on behalf of the Democrat Party represents a danger to our majority … Is this the face of our next Senate Majority Leader?'" (No doubt the accompanying picture of Senator Clinton is terribly flattering.).

The New York Daily News' Joel Siegel views the Quinnipiac poll more from a Hillary Clinton perspective, and quotes Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll on the impact of "Living History": "'The book certainly hasn't hurt her with voters and it might have done her some good.'" LINK

The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove reports that Bob Dole isn't giving up on his close personal friends Bill Clinton and Don Hewitt. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

The Note doesn't do the New York Times crossword that regularly.

That's why The Note failed to notice 44 Across from Wednesday's puzzle:

"Bush adviser Karl," four letters.

Frankly, we're stumped. We'd probably have to Rove far and wide to find someone who knows the answer. But whoever it is, he probably has to be doing well for himself to be a Bush adviser and still get included in the puzzle of a newspaper such as the Times .

"The Environmental Protection Agency's No. 2 official, who had been considered a possible successor to Christie Whitman, unexpectedly resigned today," The New York Times ' Jenny 8. Lee reports.

"Although the official, Linda J. Fisher, will serve as acting administrator for the next two weeks after Mrs. Whitman steps down as the agency's administrator on Friday, her departure will leave the agency without its top two officials until a permanent successor is nominated and approved, a process that could last until the fall." LINK

We must ask: if the environment is so important to the presidential candidates who are senators, will any of them vow to filibuster an EPA nominee they find lacking?

UPCOMING MAJOR POLITICAL EVENTS

—8:45 am: President Bush speaks about telemarketing Do Not Call list, Rose Garden
—10:15 am: California Democratic congressional delegation speaks against gubernatorial recall, DC
—12:00 pm: MoveOn.org releases results of "primary"
—12:30 pm: Senators Lieberman and Graham participate in NALEO forum, Phoenix
—3:20 pm: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney 2004 luncheon, San Francisco
—3:30 pm: (approx.) White House counsel Alberto Gonzales addresses NALEO forum, Phoenix
—10:05 pm: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney 2004 dinner, Los Angeles
—2:25 am: President Bush arrives at ranch, Crawford, TX.

Major Futures

— June 27, 2003: Gov. Howard Dean addresses the City Club Group, San Diego
— June 27, 2003: Center for Responsive Politics releases study of 2002 cycle campaign contributions
— June 27, 2003: Sen. Joe Lieberman and Sen. Bob Graham participate in the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials' presidential candidates forum, Phoenix
— June 27, 2003: White House Counsel Al Gonzales and other "top-level" Bush Administration offiicals keynote luncheon at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials annual conference, Phoenix
— June 27, 2003: George P. Bush attends "Filibuster Buster" reception on Capitol Hill
— June 27, 2003: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers, San Francisco and Los Angeles
— June 28, 2003: Gov. Howard Dean campaigns in New Mexico and Arizona
— June 28, 2003: Sen. Hillary Clinton attends DSCC fundraiser with Sen. Boxer in San Francisco
— June 28, 2003: Sens. John Edwards and John Kerry, Reps. Richard Gephardt and Dennis Kucinich, Gov. Howard Dean, and Rev. Al Sharpton participate in the second part of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials' presidential candidates forum, moderated by Governor Bill Richardson, Phoenix
— June 28, 2003: Rep. Richard Gephardt attends reception with Democratic supporters, Tuscon, Arizona
— June 28, 2003: Sen. Bob Graham keynotes Tennessee Democrats' Jackson Dinner, Opryland Hotel, Nashville
— June 28-29,2003: Matt Gephardt campaigns in New Hampshire
— June 29, 2003: Sen. John Kerry attends the Washington State Democratic Party's Annual Albert D. Rossellini Dinner, Tacoma, Washington
— June 29, 2003: Gov. Bill Richardson keynotes and Adele Graham speaks at the Florida Democrats Jefferson-Jackson Gala, Hollywood, Florida
— June 29, 2003: Elizabeth Edwards campaigns in Iowa City, Iowa
— June 29, 2003: Gov. Howard Dean takes a bus tour across New Hampshire
— June 29, 2003: Reverend Al Sharpton preaches in South Carolina
— June 29, 2003: Sen. Hillary Clinton attends DSCC fundraiser with Sen. Boxer in Los Angeles
— June 30, 2003: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers in Miami and Tampa
— June 30, 2003: Vice President Cheney attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers in Grand Rapids, Michigan and Akron, Ohio
— June 30, 2003: Governor Howard Dean holds fundraisers, American Airlines Theatre and The Roxy, NYC
— June 30, 2003: Second campaign finance quarter ends
— June 30, 2003: Howard Dean attends fundraiser at American Airlines Theater, New York
— June 30, 2003: Sen. John Edwards attends fundraiser with The Beach Boys, Los Angeles, California
— July 1-4, 2003: Sen. John Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire
— July 1-6, 2003: National Education Association 2003 Annual Meeting
— July 3, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for June
— July 3, 2003: Sen. Joe Lieberman campaigns in Greenville, South Carolina
— July 3-7, 2003: Sen. Joe Lieberman and his family campaign in New Hampshire
— July 4, 2003: Amherst and Merrimack Fourth of July parades, New Hampshire
— July 6, 2003: President Bush's birthday
— July 6, 2003: Former President Clinton delivers inaugural "Tip O'Neill lecture" at University of Ulster at Magee, Northern Ireland
— July 7, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Concord, New Hampshire
— July 7-12, 2003: President Bush travels to Africa
— July 8, 2003: Consolidated BCRA case plaintiffs' briefs are due
— July 9, 2003: Reverend Al Sharpton addresses DL21C, New York City
— July 9-13, 2003: Young Republican National Federation Conference, Boston
— July 11, 2003: Sen. John Edwards speaks to the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project Latin Vote 2003 Banquet, Los Angeles
— July 11-12, 2003: Former President Clinton participates in Progressive Governance Conference, London
— July 11-15, 2003: National Association of Counties 2003 Annual Conference and Exposition, Milwaukee County, Wisconsin
— July 12-17, 2003: NAACP 94th Annual Convention, Miami
— July 13, 2003: Senator John Kerry addresses National Council of La Raza conference, Austin, Texas
— July 13, 2003: "Hear It From The Heartland" forum with Rep. Dick Gephardt, Dubuque, Iowa
— July 13-14, 2003: Sen. John Edwards campaigns in Iowa
— July 15, 2003: Senator John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Seacoast, New Hampshire
— July 15, 2003: Quaterly campaign finance reports due to FEC
— July 15, 2003: Human Rights Campaign Presidential Candidate Forum, D.C.
— July 15-19, 2003: National Association of Lieutenant Governors Annual Meeting, Little Rock, Arkansas
— July 18, 2003: Green Party holds 2003 conference, Washington DC
— July 18, 2003: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers in Dallas
— July 19, 2003: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers in Houston
— July 19-23, 2003: Association of Trial Lawyers of America convention, San Francisco
— July 21-25, 2003: National Conference of State Legislatures' Annual Meeting, San Francisco
— July 23, 2003: California county elections officers report number of recall petition signatures to Secretary of State
— July 23-26,2003: Republican National Committee meeting, New York City
— July 24, 2003: President Bush attends Bush-Cheney '04 fundraiser in Detroit (area), Michigan
— July 24-27, 2003: North Haverhill Fair, North Haverhill, NH
— July 25-26, 2003: Sen. John Edwards campaigns in Iowa
— July 25-29, 2003: National Association of Secretaries of State Summer Meeting, Portland, Maine
— July 25-27, 2003: Iowa AFSCME Biennial Convention, Sheraton Four Points Hotel, Des Moines, IA
— July 25-27, 2003: College Republicans Biennial Convention, DC
— July 25-27, 2003: National Association of State Election Directors summer meeting, Portland
— July 27-Aug 1, 2003: United Food and Commercial Workers union annual meeting, San Francisco
— July 27-28, 2003: Democratic Leadership Council's 2003 "National Conversation," Philadelphia
— July 27, 2003: "Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Ottumwa, Iowa
— July 27, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Nashua, New Hampshire
— July 28, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Lakes Region, New Hampshire
— July 28, 2003: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— July 29-Aug-3, 2003: Chesire State Fair, Chesire, NH
— July 31-Aug 3, 2003: American Constitution Society national convention
— July 31, 2003: Gross Domestic Product figure for second quarter released
— Aug. 1, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for July
— Aug. 1, 2003: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton delivers remarks to the American Constitution Society, Washington, DC
— Aug. 1-2, 2003: American Constitutional Society National Convention, DC
— Aug. 2-9, 2003: Teamsters 100 Year Anniversary, nationwide
— August 3, 2003: "Hear It From the Heartland" forum with former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, Waterloo, Iowa
— Aug. 5, 2003: "Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Rev. Al Sharpton, Sioux City, Iowa
— Aug. 5, 2003: Consolidated BCRA case defendants' briefs are due
— Aug. 5, 2003: Mississippi Republican and Democratic Gubernatorial primaries
— Aug. 5-6, 2003: AFL-CIO executive council meets, Chicago, Illinois
— Aug. 6, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, North Country and Carroll County, New Hampshire
— Aug. 6, 2003: Sen. Hillary Clinton attends DSCC fundraiser with Sen. Murray in Seattle
— Aug. 7-17, 2003: Iowa State Fair
— Aug. 8-12, 2003: American Bar Association annual meeting, San Francisco
— Aug. 13-15, 2003: Iowa Federation of Labor 47th Annual Convention, Waterloo
— August 13, 2003: Iowa Federation of Labor Presidential Candidates Forum, Des Moines, Iowa
— Aug. 13-17, 2003: Young Democrats of America National Convention, Buffalo, NY
— Aug. 14, 2003: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's Conference on Public Health with presidential candidates, Des Moines
— Aug. 15-17, 2003: Cornish Fair, Cornish New Hampshire
— Aug. 16, 2003: Amb. Carol Moseley Braun's birthday
— Aug. 16-19, 2003 National Governors Association summer meeting in Indianapolis
— Aug. 19, 2003: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug. 19, 2003: Tipper Gore's birthday
— Aug. 19-20, 2003: Pennsylvania Republican Party state committee meeting
— Aug. 20, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Manchester, New Hampshire
— Aug. 21, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Derry/Salem, New Hampshire
— Aug. 21, 2003: Consolidated BCRA case plaintiffs' reply briefs are due
— Aug. 22, 2003: California county elections officers report number of recall petition signatures to Secretary of State
— Aug. 23, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Strafford County, New Hampshire
— Aug. 24, 2003: Sen. John Edwards holds town hall meeting, Keene and Upper Valley, New Hampshire
— Aug. 27-Sept 1, 2003: Lancaster Fair, Lancaster, N.H.
— Aug. 28- Sept 1, 2003, Hopkinton State Fair, N.H.
— Sep. 2, 2003: Recall petitions due in California
— Sept. 3-5, 2003: The Alliance for Retired Americans holds National Legislative Conference, Washington, D.C.
— Sept. 5, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for August
— Sept. 8, 2003: Supreme Court hears arguments in McConnell v. FEC
— Sept.12-21, 2003, Rochester Fair, Rochester, N.H.
— Sept. 13-16, 2003: Western Governors Association Annual Meeting, Big Sky, MT
— Sept. 15-17, 2003: National Restaurant Association lobbying conference, DC
— Sept. 19-21, 2003: National Federation of Republican Women biennial conference, Salt Lake City
— Sept. 21, 2003: "Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Sen. Joseph Lieberman, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
— Sept. 21-23, 2003: Southern Governors Association Annual Meeting, Charleston WV
— Sept. 24-27, 2003: Congressional Black Caucus Foundation annual legislative conference, DC
— Sept. 25, 2003: Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Los Angeles, California.
— Sept. 30, 2003: Third campaign finance quarter ends
— Oct. 1, 2003: FY 04 begins
— Oct 3, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for September
— Oct. 4, 2003: Louisiana Gubernatorial Open Primary
— Oct. 8, 2003: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)'s birthday
— Oct. 9, 2003: Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.)'s birthday
— Oct. 13, 2003: Rev. Al Sharpton's birthday
— Oct. 15, 2003: Quaterly campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Oct. 20-21, 2003: President Bush attends APEC Leaders' Meeting, Bangkok, Thailand
— Oct. 25, 2003: Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, New York City.
— Oct. 25, 2003: 2003 Pumpkin Festival, Keene, New Hampshire
— Oct. 30, 2003: Gross Domestic Product figure for second quarter released
— Nov. 3, 2003: First day for presidential campaigns to file in New Hampshire
— Nov. 4, 2003: General elections in Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi
— Nov. 6-11, 2003: National Association of Realtors annual convention, San Francisco
— Nov. 7, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for October
— Nov. 9, 2003: Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.)'s birthday
— Nov. 13-15, 2003: Federalist Society 2003 National Lawyers Convention, DC
— Nov. 15, 2003: Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election
— Nov. 15, 2003: Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson day dinner.
— Nov. 21, 2003: Dubuque County Democrats Presidential Forum, Dubuque, Iowa
— Nov. 17, 2003: Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's birthday
— Nov. 21, 2003: Last day for presidential campaigns to file in New Hampshire
— Nov. 22, 2003: Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Miami, Florida.
— Dec. 5-7, 2003: Florida State Democratic Convention, Disney World
— Dec. 5, 2003: Government releases unemployment figure for October
— Dec. 6, 2003: Presidential candidate forum with Iowa College Democrats, Iowa City
— Dec. 9, 2003: Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)'s birthday
— Dec. 11, 2003: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass)'s birthday
— Dec. 13, 2003: Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
— Dec. 15, 2003: Uber-Democrat Donna Brazile's birthday.
— Jan. 4, 2004: Des Moines Register's Democratic candidate presidential debate
— Jan.6, 2004: National Public Radio hosts a radio-only candidate forum, Des Moines (tentative)
— Jan.9, 2004: Government releases unemployment figure for December
— Jan. 19, 2004: Iowa caucuses
— Jan. 24, 2004: 100 Club New Hampshire Democratic Party Annual Fundraiser, Sheraton Tara, Nashua
— Jan. 27, 2004: New Hampshire primary
— Jan. 31, 2004: Final 2003 fourth quarter campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Jan. 31, 2004: Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO)'s birthday
— Feb. 3, 2004: Delaware presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Missouri presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Arizona presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Virginia GOP caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Oklahoma presidential primary
— Feb. 7, 2004: Michigan Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 7, 2004: Washington state Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 8, 2004: Maine caucuses
— Feb. 10, 2004: Virginia Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 10, 2004: District of Columbia Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 10, 2004: Tennessee presidential primary
— Feb. 17, 2004: Wisconsin presidential primary
— Feb. 24, 2004: Idaho Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 24, 2004: Michigan GOP presidential primary
— Feb. 24, 2004: Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT)'s birthday
— Feb. 26, 2004: CNN/LA Times co-host Democratic presidential candidates debate
— Feb. 27, 2004: Utah presidential primary
— March.2, 2004: California presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Connecticut presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Georgia presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Hawaii caucuses
— March 2, 2004: Maryland presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Massachusetts presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Minnesota caucuses
— March 2, 2004: New York presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Ohio presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Rhode Island presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Vermont presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Texas presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Washington state presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Florida presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Louisiana presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Mississippi presidential/state primary
— March 16, 2004: Illinois presidential/state primary
— April 25, 2004: "Save Women's Lives: March for Freedom of Choice", Washington, DC
— April 27, 2004: Pennsylvania presidential/state primary
— May 4, 2004: Indiana presidential/state primary
— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston
— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
— Aug. 30- Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York
— Aug. 31, 2004: Florida state primary
— Nov. 2, 2004: Election Day

 
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