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the note
Reality Bites
A/k/a: What Don Evans Thinks About While He Shaves Each Morning

By Mark Halperin, Marc Ambinder, Brooke Brower, Karen Travers, Anne Chiappetta, Mary Hood, Nick Schifrin, Alexandra Avnet, and Jan Simmonds with F. Ury and B. Rasmussen
ABCNEWS.com

NEWS SUMMARY

Here are the big dirty little secrets about the election, all guaranteed to be true and (almost) all guaranteed to make every one of our sources angry.

1. Whoever wins the electoral votes of 2 out of 3 (or 3 out of 3) of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida will be the next president of the United States.

2. By keeping his physical and psychic distance, John Kerry has fostered less Stockholm Syndrome among his regular traveling press corps than any Democratic presidential candidate since.. well … since Al Gore. (Kerry's ways make the relationship between Walter Mondale and Lee Kamlet look like that between John McCain and Tucker Carlson, if you know what we mean.)

3. A lot of Democrats — including some of the smartest ones we know — look at the latest polling data and claim to think that the election is all but over.

4. Note to Devenish and Cutter — get used to it. The dominant political press narrative creators have locked in. President Bush will never be held to the same standard as Senator Kerry on flip-flopping and Senator Kerry will never be held to the same standard as the president on saying careless/wrong things for effect.

5. The central theory of the Bush campaign is that winning depends on destroying John Kerry by making him unacceptable to the American people as a commander in chief, someone to have in their living rooms for four years, and a liberal, flip-flopping, pessimistic tax increaser.

6. Bush advisers who are putting all their chips on the Iraq handover leading to an improvement in right track/wrong track and the president's job approval are (semi-)secretly worried that — even if the facts on the ground improve — public opinion and perception will lag and not improve commensurately (and enough) by November to make a difference — a la 41 and the economy in '92.

7. Most Democrats are fraidy cats who don't think in their hearts they can win the White House or, if they win it, don't think they can hold it for any length of time — and/but John Kerry is an conspicuous exception to this.

8. Nearly every political reporter in America is having the same experience — they keep finding Republicans who say they will never vote again for President Bush (over the the war and the deficit, usually) but they have a heck of a time finding anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 who are now certain that they will vote for Bush (and Gore apparently won the popular vote).

9. Beyond a core group who has known him for years, would walk through walls for him, and respects how tough he is, Kerry's staff evinces less respect for him and less fondness for him than Gore's people did about the 2000 standard bearer.

10. There will be less national debate this year about what the agenda of either Bush or Kerry for 2005-2009 will be than any of you can imagine.

11. There is absolutely no way of knowing until election day if the Republicans' 72 hours program, or either parties' 527s, or the virulent anti-Bush animation will produce on-the-ground practical results or tidal waves or not — the only index that matters is winning.

12. For reasons both tactical and strategic, ABC News continues to leave unpublished the names of a lot of Democrats who are secretly working for John Kerry's veepstakes operation. But, don't be under any illusions — we know who you are.

13. No one — included John Kerry or the smarties who work for him — has any idea what the reaction will be among elites, masses, and political reporters if someone other than John Edwards is picked as Kerry's running mate. And the range of possible reactions is wide as all get out.

14. The White House has some carefully planned and perfectly appropriate August/September/October surprises up its sleeve.

15. The Kitty Kelley book.

16. No matter how many times they try to deny it, Democrats are trying to talk down the economic recovery.

17. No matter how many times they try to deny it, Republicans are planning to tactically use gay marriage to influence certain voting groups.

18. No matter how many cute quotes Gene Sperling can come up with, if employment, personal income, and consumer confidence are on the rise in a given battleground state, Senator Kerry needs to find something else to talk about.

19. 50-minute speeches to minority groups do not make up for perceived failures in other outreach areas.

20. You sure do know a lot of secrets for a Note from Brooklyn. (Note: Item #20 only accessible to readers of the New York Times advertising column.)

Today's must-reads include:

--John Harwood's Virginia focus group, which asks "Who is John Kerry?" in the Wall Street Journal .

--The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman on the fight for the fiscal future of the GOP. LINK

--The New York Times ' Johnston and Stevenson on John Ashcroft's political problems, most Notable for how little the Times men were able to get. LINK

--The Washington Post 's Harold Meyerson on Dick Cheney and a double standard. LINK

-- USA Today 's Judy Keen and Richard Benedetto on Laura Bush — the most balanced and thoughtful piece we have read about Mrs. Bush in some time. LINK

--The Washington Post 's Robert Samuelson on why he doesn't buy red-state/blue-state arguments. LINK

In an election year rarity, President Bush and Senator Kerry are both down all day — at the White House and the Heinz estate in Pennsylvania, respectfully.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today for the first time since May 16, 2000 in a 2:15 pm announcement.

RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie continues his Catholic Outreach Tour in Portland, Ore. and Bellevue, Wash., where he campaigns for Rep. Nethercutt.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

Are we really polarized (Michael Barone)? Or do we share similar values (Alan Wolfe)? The debate rages. Robert Samuelson believes that CW is wrong and polarization is overstated.

If the country were more polarized, you'd expect to find it in the polls. You don't. After scouring surveys, sociologist Paul DiMaggio of Princeton University concluded that 'the public actually has become more unified in attitudes toward race, gender and crime since the 1970s.'" LINK

"Perhaps party programs have diverged? Not so. On many issues, the parties broadly agree. In practice, both favor bigger government and lower taxes (and aren't embarrassed by the contradiction)."

"What's actually happened is that politics, and not the country, has become more polarized. By politics, I mean elected officials, party activists, advocates, highly engaged voters and commentators (TV talking heads, pundits). In his search for polarization, sociologist DiMaggio examined many subgroups by age, race, sex and education. None exhibited more polarization, with one exception: people who identified as 'strong' Republicans or Democrats. That's about 30 percent of adults."

Samuelson's column might be a good explanation as to why the Federal Marriage Amendment isn't as polarizing as backers hoped; while most Americans disfavor gay marriage, they're hesitant to write it into the Constitution. It's a nuanced position, not a simple one, and it's hard for activists to wrench more votes from nuance.

Still, there IS polarization among some groups — such as those who worship regularly and those who don't — and there is certainly polarization at the Electoral College level.

The New York Daily News' Richard Sisk writes up the new George Washington University poll showing Bush and Kerry even at 48% and Nader pulling 1%. LINK

"Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and GOP pollster Ed Goeas, contributors to the Battleground survey, said the results were little changed from a poll in March and showed an electorate deeply polarized and likely to stay that way into November."

The Tampa Tribune's Brad Smith has a piece on some Catholic voters' concerns about their own faith, the candidates' faith, and how those two intersect. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

USA Today 's Judy Keen and Richard Benedetto highlight Laura Bush's appearances on the trail and her role in the campaign to re-elect her husband. LINK

"Laura Bush's values, image and opinions are not just fodder for fashion magazines or Beltway buzz about whether she supports abortion rights or disagrees with her husband's opposition to embryonic stem-cell research. They could become an important part of the campaign as voters compare the wives of the two candidates."

The New York Daily News writes up Vice President Cheney's trip to the Big Apple yesterday, Noting that Cheney met with Mayor Bloomberg and rode to Yankee Stadium with former mayor Giuliani and Gov. Pataki.LINK

"The mayor said he went to lobby Cheney on anti-terror aid and ended up talking about everything from baseball to Rep. Bob Ney, the Ohio Republican whom Bloomberg disinvited from his home last week over a vote against boosting security funds for the city."

New York Times ' sportswriter Tyler Kepner points out: "During the singing of "God Bless America" in the seventh inning, an image of Cheney was shown on the scoreboard. It was greeted with booing, so the Yankees quickly removed the image."LINK

The New York Daily News' Maggie Haberman reports that Ken Mehlman said the president will likely not visit Ground Zero during the convention. LINK

The New York Times ' Nicholas Kristoff writes the consensus on the Left that Bush is a liar "further polarizes the political cesspool, and this polarization is making America increasingly difficult to govern and impedes understanding." LINK

Hypersmart liberal columnist Harold Meyerson makes a good point in his column today. Referring to Vice President Cheney's explanation for imprecating on the Senate floor, Meyerson quite rightly, to our ears, believes that "If that justification came from the mouth of a Democrat, of course, it would be a sign of moral laxity and lack of seriousness. How many conservatives have told us that Bill Clinton was a feel-good guy devoid of all discipline? And how many have chastised Dick Cheney for invoking the justification they constantly accused Clinton of succumbing to?" LINK

That said, cursing on the Senate floor is less offensive than getting a hummer in — or near — the Oval Office. So there.

Meyerson is usually right-on about unionism (aside for occasional flurries into 'multiracial political coalition' fantasies in Los Angeles), and his column nails it today. The next time you hear someone on one of the cable news nets say that Dick Gephardt is the sole favorite of organized labor, harken back to this true paragraph:

"All of labor is grateful for Gephardt's more-than-decade-long leadership of the fight against the kind of globalization that pays no heed to labor or environmental standards. But many union leaders are quick to point out that when Gephardt ran fourth in January's Iowa caucuses and was compelled to withdraw from the race, he lost even the factory towns to Kerry and Edwards. Great guy, good message, bad messenger, these presidents say. Edwards's 'two Americas' talk, by contrast, has electrified Democrats — and, if the primary results are any indication, many independents as well — in search of a resonant explanation of what has gone wrong in an increasingly plutocratic America."

"After years in which his conservative views and his definition of the proper balance between civil liberties and security needs made him a target for liberal critics, Mr. Ashcroft has recently experienced a series of defeats and missteps that have put him under even more intense scrutiny, and not just from Democrats," reports the New York Times ' David Johnston and Richard Stevenson. LINK

Given the obvious mandate of the writers, we bet that there are sighs of relief coming from Team Ashcroft, since they know full well that Bush White House advisers say worse things about their guy than what appears in the story.

ABC News Vote 2004: Senator John Kerry:

The New York Times ' Steven Greenhouse Notes,"Municipal labor disputes hardly ever have national repercussions, but the contract dispute involving [Boston's] main police union is different, because it has begun to bedevil the Democratic Party and could hurt [Kerry's] hopes of achieving party unity in the presidential campaign." LINK

Mayor Thomas M. Menino laid the smack down on fellow Democrat John F. Kerry yesterday. In an exclusive interview with the Boston Herald, Menino called Kerry's campaign ''small-minded'' and "incompetent.'' LINK

Glen Johnson, that long-time Kerry-watcher from the Boston Globe , is a little harsh on the presidential candidate today. Check out this lead: "To detractors and even some supporters, John F. Kerry's decision this week to cancel his speech to the US Conference of Mayors because of a picket line was typical of how he makes many judgments: protracted, messy, and guided by self-interest." LINK

Scot Lehigh is just as rough in his Boston Globe column on the incident. "One well-placed source said that though his campaign was split over whether he should defy the BPPA pickets, Kerry told Menino that he had decided against doing so for two reasons: He wants peace at the Democratic National Convention, and he hopes for the union's endorsement." LINK

"But make no mistake: In his pursuit of those goals, Kerry cut a low profile in courage."

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz wraps Senator Kerry's appeal to Latino and African-American voters, "asking them to help him defeat President Bush while outlining proposals to raise college graduation rates, boost math and science education among women and minorities, and provide a path to citizenship for legal immigrants." LINK

The New York Times ' David Halbfinger writes about Kerry's remarks to the Rainbow/PUSH meeting, Noting that, far from having a Sister Souljah moment, "Kerry said nothing to antagonize his hosts. In a race where both parties are seeking to energize their base, he is courting the same strong minority support that Mr. Clinton and Al Gore enjoyed but has been criticized for not having enough minority representation in senior positions in his campaign." LINK

The race for Senator Kerry's potentially not-up-for-grabs Senate seat is on between Massachusetts Congressmen Edward Markey and Martin Meehan, the Boston Globe reports. "[They] have raised more than $1 million each in the last three months, a level of fund-raising that Massachusetts has never seen by incumbent congressmen." LINK

The Des Moines Register is your one-stop-shop for today's Teresa Heinz Kerry news. Mrs. Kerry was in Iowa long enough yesterday to garner two write-ups from the Register. One on her campaigning abilities from Erin Crawford LINK and another by Jonathan Roos recounting her speech on health care and tart responses to questions about her personal wealth LINK .

The New York Times ' Glen Justice reports that Kerry has to figure out soon when and how to pay off the $6.4 million loan he made to himself last year. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's John Harwood attended a focus group in Virginia conducted for the Annenberg Center. "Who is John Kerry?" was the agenda item among some military members and families.

"For Mr. Kerry, the 2½-hour conversation among military members and spouses underscores the flip side of the nation's election-year focus on problems in Iraq. While that preoccupation has eroded support for President Bush, it also has muffled the Massachusetts senator's attempts to raise his profile among American voters."

"'Behind John Kerry's name right now is a huge question mark,' says pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group for the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center. Between now and Election Day, 'He's going to need a very firm handshake with the American people,' says Mr. Hart. He requested that last names of the 12 focus-group participants not be used, citing the sensitivity of members of the military expressing political opinions."

"Military families represent a big chunk of the electorate; more than half of the U.S. population consists of active or former soldiers and their immediate relatives. Mr. Kerry hopes his status as a decorated veteran will help him make inroads with this Republican-leaning group."

"One geographic target is Virginia Beach, next door to the naval home port of Norfolk. In June alone, Mr. Kerry has spent some $261,000 on advertisements in the Norfolk market to bolster his chances in a state that has voted Republican in nine consecutive presidential elections. Mr. Bush's advertising spots accusing Mr. Kerry of flip-flops have aired here only on national cable channels, not the Norfolk affiliates of broadcast networks."

"Still, the focus group suggests Mr. Kerry's message hasn't broken through. Lisa, a 44-year-old Naval electrician who is the only definite Kerry voter at the session, laments that the candidate 'can't express' strong opinions."

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

An editorial in Cleveland's Plain Dealer predicts that education concern nationwide could serve as a powerful political issue, though whether either presidential candidate will use it effectively remains to be seen. LINK

Education Secretary Rod Paige paid a visit to Portland, Oregon to talk to teachers Tuesday about No Child Left Behind and was met with mixed reviews, according to the AP's Julia Silverman. LINK

Which will mean more for the folks in swingy Oregon, that their personal income growth lags behind the national average LINK

or that the jobless rate is rebounding faster than most other states?LINK

Cleveland State University joins Miami and Ohio universities as the third public university in the state to extend health benefits to the same-sex partners of its employees. LINK

A farm-based fraternal group that sponsored Washington's popular blanket primary 70 years ago, is back with a "Top 2" replacement proposal that if given the go-ahead will replace a recently approved system that requires voters to take only one party's primary ballot. LINK

Nevada's status as a battleground state was reflected in the divided opinion of 1500 local student leaders who took part in a mock election which showed the president winning on popular votes but losing on electoral votes. LINK

President Bush's signing of legislation supporting the development of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository is creating problems for Republicans hoping to gain Nevada's swing voters in the November election, a column in the Las-Vegas Review-Journal discusses. LINK

The Arizona Republic's Kamman writes up Senator Kerry's appearance in Phoenix yesterday.LINK

The Arizona Republic Notes that the response was mixed among National Council of La Raza who attended. LINK

A new KAET poll released on Arizona voters showed Bush with a wide margin lead over Kerry (47 percent to 35 percent). This poll contrasts last week's Arizona Republic poll which showed the candidates in a dead heat. According to the Arizona Republic, the sample size for the new poll was much smaller than theirs.LINK

The Arizona Daily Star's Barrett Marson reports "Supporters of a ballot initiative to restrict state services to illegal entrants say they have enough valid signatures to force a fall vote." LINK

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune prints a mini series on the impact on the war in Iraq on locals. There are stories of a couple of local soldiers who have been in Iraq. Nathan Swing's family is begging for his return: LINK

Jeff Williams and Mike Laughton say the support they got from home and the help they gave Iraqis made the whole thing worth it. LINK

The Minnesota paper also talks to a few local anti-war activists. LINK

As well as visitors to a Middle Eastern deli where "Arabs and North Africans meet for lunch, smoke hookahs and discuss events in their old countries. With a television tuned to Al Jazeera, the conflict in Iraq is never far away." LINK

Veepstakes:

The Kerry campaign's communications director tells ABC's Dan Harris that the sped-up handover hasn't sped up veepstakes plans … but take that for what it's worth … the campaign is ready at a moment's notice … as we call it at ABC … they're on hard standby … to set up events once Kerry makes up his mind (if he hasn't already).

Senator Kerry has two down days beginning tomorrow in Pennsylvania; he'll spend Thursday night in Washington.

The AP reports that its random survey of 11 Missouri county Democratic chairs found that eight preferred John Edwards, one preferred Tom Vilsack and only two favored their hometown/homestate boy. LINK

Why? For one thing, it's said that Gephardt has little connection to voters outside the ring of St. Louis suburbs. And while's brought money and pork to the state, he's never established connections with key Democrats in more rural areas. 18 years of national aspirations — he started running for president in 1986 — have alienated others. Gephardt partisans dispute all these contentions.

--Would a John Edwards vice presidential nomination make a huge difference for Democrats in South Carolina and North Carolina?

It's one of the reasons why Democrats with a hand in the Senate race want him on the ticket.. It cuts both ways.

Edwards could help energize Democrats in North Carolina who aren't enthusiastic about Erskine Bowles and potentially, help in South Carolina (though Inez Tenenbaum has her base — and his, from the primaries — locked up).

Certainly, Republicans acknowledge that a Kerry-Edwards ticket would force the Bush the campaign to divert resources to both states, setting up full campaigns with full GOP field operations. In North Carolina in particular, the subsequent presidential visits might boost Rep. Richard Burr's candidacy, not to mention in South Carolina, where the distinctions between Tenenbaum and Kerry on taxes, the war, and gay marriage would be all the more acute.

So while it might not be a wash, an Edwards on the ticket certainly doesn't strike us as a magic bullet for Democrats in those two states.

Scheduling items:

Former Def. Sec. William Cohen returned from Europe Tuesday and is in Washington through the weekend.

Rep. Gephardt returned from Chicago and plans to spend the week in D.C. (An attendee at his daughter's wedding tells ABC's Sally Hawkins that the family was mum about veepstakes.).

Senator Edwards is on vacation but returns to the spotlight on July 4 with his annual North Carolina beach walk; Edwards will attend a Victory 2004 (that's the joint DNC/Kerry fundraising account) event next Monday in Boston, ABC's Gloria Riviera reports.

The Des Moines Register 's Jane Norman writes up the CNN/ USA Today poll showing lack of enthusiasm for corn-state governor Vilsack. LINK

Fahrenheit 9/11:

While Spidey tries to meet his unbelievable expectations (We've already got our tickets … Toby has such beautiful blue eyes..and Kirsten's gaze … .), "Fahrenheit 9/11" adds 316 additional theaters today and 526 more Friday to bring its total run to 1,710, reports Variety's Gabriel Snyder. "Further expansion is expected July 9. The pic was No. 1 in Monday grosses, showing sustained audience interest."

Included on the expanded theater list: Jackson, Miss. and Mountain Home, Ark.! LINK

Hollywood Reporter's Martin Grove takes a long, boffo look at how Michael Moore so effectively turned "Fahrenheit" into a record-breaking hit. Grove's top 10 list includes "the importance of having a good villain," knowing "how to manipulate the media," and creating a "secondary controversy with its own villain." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Johnson and Marr looks at Move America Forward and Citizens United's efforts to combat "Fahrenheit" and report that "figuring out how to prevent the movie from becoming an even wider cultural phenomenon is dividing the political right." LINK

Last night Letterman's Top 10, "George W. Bush Complaints About 'Fahrenheit 9/11,'" was not exactly kind to the president:

10. That actor who played the president was totally unconvincing.

9. It oversimplified the way I stole the election.

8. Too many of them fancy college-boy words

7. If Michael Moore had waited a few months, he could have included the part where I get him deported.

6. Didn't have one of them hilarious monkeys who smoke cigarettes and gives people the finger.

5. Of all Michael Moore's accusations, only 97% are true.

4. Not sure — I passed out after a piece of popcorn lodged in my windpipe.

3. Where the hell was Spiderman?

2. Couldn't hear most of the movie over Cheney's foul mouth.

1. I thought this was supposed to be about dodgeball!"

Why you won't be reading Richard Roeper's urging that "Everyone should see this film" on a movie poster anytime soon (did we hear objections when pastors urged parents to take their minors to see "Passion of the Christ"?). LINK

The Boston Globe 's editorial board thinks the movie's got good and bad parts but is a must-see because it "challenges people to think hard about their country and their president." LINK

A Windows on the World chef, though, who was walking to work the morning of Sept. 11, thinks "Fahrenheit" is "indicative of a nation that has become too apathetic, ignorant or deceived to face the enemy at the gate." LINK

Nader-Camejo '04

The DC-based watch group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington plans to file its complaint with the FEC today after Oregon Family Council and Citizens for a Sound Economy telephoned supporters urging them to help Nader get on Oregon's ballot in November. The groups deny wrongdoing. Chris Kinnan, spokesman for Citizens for a Sound Economy, tells ABC News it's all on the up and up. They even had a lawyer vet their plans in advance. LINK

For a freshened up Big Picture account of where things stand for Nader, see Reuters: LINK

Also, with just about $1 million raised so far, NC'04 is slated to receive $400,000 in federal matching funds, according to the campaign.

The deadline for Nader to secure his spot on the Florida ballot is not until September, but Democrats there are already gearing up for a challenge. Adam Smith of the St. Petersburg Times reports State Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox says he plans to legally challenge Nader unless he "dots every i and crosses every t" in his petition submissions.

Nader media man Kevin Zeese explains "The Nader campaign has decided against trying to run in Florida without party affiliation because that would require obtaining more than 93,000 signatures by mid July. The campaign is instead considering running Nader as a Reform Party candidate or creating a new minor party called the Populist Party." LINK

A new Populist Party?! Kevin, we'll be calling you about that later.

The AP reports a poll of Muslim-American voters, conducted by an Islamic civil rights group the Council on American-Islamic Relations, finds very 26 percent favor Nader. Just two percent plan to vote for President Bush; 14 percent are undecided. Nader addressed concerns for Muslim-Americans at a Capitol Hill forum yesterday. He said Islam shouldn't be blamed for terrorism any more than Christianity should be blamed for the Crusades. LINK

Check out Aaron McGruder's latest Nader-caper installment in Boondocks. LINK

Lorraine Woellert of Business Week online estimates "[C]ollectively, Bush donors account for about $41,000 of the $1 million Nader has raised." The Nader campaign says many on that list have worked with Nader on issues in the past. LINK

(A small part of) the world is still waiting to find out more about what's going with the Dem-sanctioned Nader ballot-access challenge in Illinois. Letters to Nader and his stand-in running mate will be dropped no later than noon CST today/

Politics:

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman reports "a deep rift in the Republican Party has left Congress unable to pass a budget this year, raising the probability that, for the third time in three decades, lawmakers will not agree on a detailed blueprint for government spending and tax policy." LINK

"The collapse of budget negotiations is more of a political embarrassment than a practical problem for GOP leaders, who only two years ago sharply criticized Democrats for failing to pass a budget when they controlled the Senate. But some Republicans fear that this year's impasse reflects an irreconcilable division within their party that will imperil the government's ability to set tax policy and address ever-widening deficits as the baby boomers begin to retire."

The Wall Street Journal 's ed board chimes in: "Republicans should understand that, principle aside, sooner or later they are setting themselves up for a political fall. If Republicans won't campaign against spending to reduce the federal deficit, they will soon find themselves on the defensive on taxes. And if they ever vote for a tax increase, they can soon expect to find themselves back in the minority."

The AP reports "Al Sharpton, who failed in his last bid for a new job — president of the United States — now has a job on a reality TV show that guides people on career makeovers." LINK

The conventions:

The Hill on the networks' convention coverage plans. Don't believe the hype … (yet) … LINK

Reports the Wall Street Journal "With the political conventions just weeks away, high-level party operatives are busy seeking coverage by key television channels — MTV, for example, and Comedy Central.No joke. Stung by the dwindling convention coverage of the broadcast networks in recent years — from a total of 100 prime-time hours in 1976 to 23 hours in 2000 — and the fact that cable-news outlets largely reach older viewers, Democrats and Republicans are trying to find new ways and new channels to get their messages in front of the American public."

The Boston Host Committee, Boston 2004, for the Democratic National Convention will unveil a radio, TV, and print advertising campaign today. It'll be tough to get an answer to how large the buys are because it is all at no cost to the committee due to the in-kindness of Arnold worldwide and other business partners.

The ads will be promoting "Celebrate Boston" — the month long promotion of Boston's community, cultural, and institutional activities — throughout the entire month of July and perhaps a bit beyond.

Here is a sneak peak at the scripts of two of the four 15-second TV spots:

"Language"

Speech: (6 people saying "wicked awesome" in 6 different languages)

Words on the screen:

In Boston there are lots of ways to say, "wicked awesome."

VO:

Learn more about the city known for its diversity, at boston04.com.
Words on the screen:
Celebrate Boston 2004

Visit boston04.com

Thomas M. Menino, Mayor

"Genome"

VO:

Mapping the human genome was easy.
Mapping downtown, that's another story.
Learn more about a city known for it's research and technology, at boston04.com
Words on the screen:

Celebrate Boston 2004

Visit boston04.com

Thomas M. Menino, Mayor

Some are puzzled over the city of Boston's assessment of the economic impact of the Democratic National Convention on Boston. The Boston Globe reports Mayor Menino's assertion that the original assessment was off, but that the city is still expected to benefit from the convention, the Boston Globe reports. " … despite the negatives, the real impact of next month's convention will be $154.17 million, about $16,000 more than city officials previously thought." LINK

Morning show wrap:

LINK

>

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—7:00 am: Former top civilian administration in Iraq, L. Paul Bremmer, appears on the morning shows
—8:30 am: Attorneys Kenneth Starr, Andrew Pincus, and Richard Klingler review the 2003 Supreme Court term at an event sponsored by the Washington Legal Foundation at the M.J. Murdock Center for Free Enterprise, Washington, D.C.
—9:00 am: RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie appears at a "W-ROCKS" rally at the regional RNC office, Portland, Ore.
—9:45 am: Off-camera press gaggle with White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan
—10:30 am: The AARP releases the "Rx Watchdog Report," including a study of prescription drug prices for the first quarter of 2004, at a news conference at its headquarters, Washington, D.C.
—11:30 am: The Army holds a media roundtable to announce it will notify approximately 5600 Individual Ready Reserve Soldiers of pending mobilization, Washington, D.C.
—1:00 pm: The Iraqi embassy holds a flag-raising ceremony, Washington, D.C.
—1:00 pm: On-camera press briefing with White House Press Secretary McClellan
—2:00 pm: RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Rep. George Nethercutt attend a Republican Grassroots Rally, Bellevue, Wash.
—2:15 pm: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announces whether it will raise interest rates
—5:00 pm: Former President Bill Clinton signs copies of his memoirs "My Life" at Costco, Issaquah, Wash
. —11:00 pm: Former President Clinton signs books at Elliott Bay Book Co., Seattle, Wash.


— June 28-29, 2004: NATO summit, Istanbul, Turkey
— June 28-30, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of in San Francisco and San Jose, and Seattle
— June 29, 2004: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) addresses the 2004 National Council of La Raza Annual Conference, Phoenix
— June 29, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Cody's Books in Berkley, Calif. and Barnes & Noble in San Jose, Calif.
— June 30, 2004: Scheduled date for the transfer of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority to the Iraqi Transitional National Assembly
— June 30, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Costco, Issaquah, Wash. and Elliott Bay Book Co. in Seattle
— July 1, 2004: Vice President Cheney attends a fundraiser for Georgia congressional candidate Calder Clay, Macon, Ga.
— July 1, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at Barbara's Bookstore at the University of Illinois Chicago
— July 1, 2004: Mobilizing America's Youth holds Marching Across America rally featuring addresses by DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe on the steps of the U.S. Capitol, D.C.
— July 2, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Tom Joyner Skyshow, New Orleans
— July 2, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Books-A-Million in Little Rock, Ark.
— July 2-3, 2004: Installation of the Sheekey Bridge, New York City
— July 2-7, 2004: National Education Association annual meeting, Washington, D.C.
— July 3, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of "My Life" at a Wal-Mart in Fayetteville, Ark. and at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia
— July 3-4, 2004: Vice President Cheney takes a campaign bus trip through Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania
— July 4, 2004: Independence Day
— July 6, 2004: President George W. Bush's birthday
— July 6, 2004: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) speaks at a dinner sponsored by the Leadership Forum, D.C.
— July 6-7, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of "My Life" at Politics & Prose and Barnes & Noble, D.C.
— July 6-8, 2004: ACLU Membership Conference featuring a debate on elections issues between fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) and Gov. Bill Owens (R-Colo.), San Francisco
— July 7, 2004: Campaign Finance Institute sponsors a forum on party convention financing at the National Press Club, D.C.
— July 7, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Barnes & Noble in Washington, D.C.
— July 8, 2004: Kerry Victory Committee 2004 benefit concert, New York City
— July 9, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Nevada
— July 9, 2004: Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) and Ralph Nader debate in a forum sponsored National Public Radio's Talking Justice and moderated by NPR's Margot Adler, D.C.
— July 9-10, 2004: DNC full platform committee's "A Plan for America" meeting, Miami, Fla.
— July 9-10, 2004: UNITE HERE Merger Convention, Chicago
— July 10-11, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Dave Matthews Band concerts in Hershey, Pa., and Bristow, Va.
— July 10-16, 2004: 95th NAACP annual convention, Philadelphia
— July 12, 2004: Chris Heinz is the "special guest" at Kerry fundraiser on the rooftop of the Hotel Gansevoort, New York, NY.
— July 13-14, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the 2004 NAACP Convention, Philadelphia, Pa.
— July 13-17, 2004: American Federation of Teachers National Convention
— July 13, 2004: 75th Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Houston
— July 13, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— July 14, 2004: Fmr. President Gerald Ford's birthday
— July 14, 2004: Documentary about Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) called "Let's Get Frank" opens at Film Forum, New York City
— July 15, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Michigan
— July 15-19, 2004: National Association of Secretaries of State summer conference, New Orleans
— July 16, 2004: Construction of the Sheekey Bridge scheduled to conclude, New York City
— July 16-17, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Dave Matthews Band concerts in Hartford, Conn.
— July 17-19, 2004: National Governors Association's annual conference, Seattle
— July 19-23, 2004: National Conference of State Legislatures' annual meeting and exhibition, featuring appearances by Donna Brazile and Bill Kristol, Salt Lake City
— July 19, 2004: RNC's New York City Host Committee scheduled to hand over the keys for the Farley Post Office Building and the Sheekey Bridge to the Republican National Convention, New York City
— July 20, 2004: North Carolina state primary
— July 20, 2004: Georgia state primary
— July 20, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at the Tattered Cover Bookstore, Denver
— July 21, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at the Chapter 11 bookstore in Atlanta
— July 22, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— July 22, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at Books & Books, Coral Gables, Fla.
— July 22-24, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the National Urban League's conference, Detroit
— July 25-26, 2004: Rock the Vote's concert, Boston
— July 26, 2004: Final report due from the 9/11 Commission
— July 26, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Missouri
— July 26, 2004: Target start date for the 108th Congress' August recess
— July 26, 2004: Hip-Hop Summit Action Network summit, Boston
— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston
— Aug. 2, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
— Aug. 3, 2004: Missouri state primary
— Aug. 3, 2004: Kansas state primary
— Aug. 3, 2004: Michigan state primary
— Aug. 5, 2004: Tennessee state primary
— Aug. 6-8, 2004: National Association of State Election Directors summer meeting, Portland, Ore.
— Aug. 7, 2004: Friends of Hillary fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) at the home of Alan and Susan Patricof, East Hampton, N.Y.
— Aug. 9, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Aug. 10, 2004: Colorado state primary
— Aug. 10, 2004: Georgia state primary
— Aug. 10, 2004: Connecticut state primary
— Aug. 11, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in New Hampshire
— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
— Aug. 15, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Iowa
— Aug. 19, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Ohio and Tennessee
— Aug. 19, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug. 21, 2004: Hip-Hop Summit Action Network summit, St. Louis
— Aug. 21, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to Ben & Jerry's, Burlington, Vt.
— Aug. 24, 2004: Oklahoma state primary
— Aug. 24, 2004: Alaska state primary
— Aug. 24, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Oregon
— Aug. 25, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Washington
— Aug. 26, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Aug. 27-28, 2004: Arkansas Democratic Party's state convention, Little Rock, Ark.
— Aug. 28, 2004: NCAA I-A football kickoff between Virginia Tech and the University of Southern California in the 2004 Black Coaches Association Football Classic, Landover, Md.
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 30- Sept. 12, 2004: U.S. Open tennis championships, Flushing, N.Y.
— Aug. 31, 2004: Florida state primary
— Sept. 1, 2004: Targeted opening of the CNN studios in the Center at Columbus Circle, New York City
— Sept. 1, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Florida
— Sept. 2-5, 2004: American Political Science Association annual meeting, Chicago
— Sept. 6, 2004: Labor Day
— Sept. 7, 2004: Target end date for the 108th Congress' August recess
— Sept. 7, 2004: Arizona state primary
— Sept. 7, 2004: Nevada state primary
— Sept. 7, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Louisiana and New Mexico
— Sept. 8-11, 2004: Congressional Black Caucus Foundation Annual Legislative Conference, Washington, D.C.
— Sept. 9, 2004: NFL's season opener between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots, Foxboro, Mass.
— Sept. 11, 2004: Patriot Day
— Sept. 11, 2004: Delaware state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Wisconsin
— Sept. 14, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Sept. 14, 2004: New Hampshire state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Wisconsin state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Washington state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Vermont state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Massachusetts state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Minnesota state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: New York state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: District of Columbia district primary
— Sept. 15, 2004: National Health Policy Council hosts a day long forum titled "A National Health Policy Blue Print for the President," Los Angeles
— Sept. 16, 2004: Rosh Hashanah
— Sept. 22, 2004: First day of fall
— Sept. 23, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Sept. 24-25, 2004: Christian Coalition's Road To Victory conference, D.C.
— Sept. 25, 2004: Yom Kippur
— Sept. 28, 2004: Fmr. Vice President Al Gore and fmr. Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) take part in Southern Methodist University's Linda and Mitch Hart Lecture moderated by David Gergen, Dallas
— Sept. 30, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at the University of Miami, Miami
— Oct. 1, 2004: Fmr. President Jimmy Carter's birthday
— Oct. 1, 2004: Target adjournment for the 108th Congress
— Oct. 3, 2004: Rev. Al Sharpton's birthday
— Oct. 5, 2004: Proposed vice presidential debate at Case Western University, Cleveland
— Oct. 8, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis
— Oct. 8, 2004: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)'s birthday
— Oct. 11, 2004: Columbus Day
— Oct. 12, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Oct. 13, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Arizona State University, Tempe
— Oct. 16, 2004: Early voting begins in New Mexico
— Oct. 16, 2004: Ramadan begins
— Oct. 19, 2004: Early voting begins in Florida
— Oct. 21, 2004: Alfred E. Smith memorial dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York City
— Oct. 23, 2004: Scheduled start of the 2004 World Series
— Oct. 28, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Oct. 31, 2004: Daylight savings time ends
— Nov. 2, 2004: Election Day
— Nov. 5, 2004: President George W. Bush and Laura Bush's 27th wedding anniversary
— Nov. 11, 2004: Veterans' Day
— Nov. 17, 2004: Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.)'s birthday
— Nov. 18, 2004: Official opening of the William J. Clinton Presidential Center, Little Rock, Ark.
— Nov. 25, 2004: Thanksgiving Day
— Dec. 4, 2004: Louisiana congressional runoff
— Dec. 7, 2004: Hanukkah begins
— Dec. 11, 2004: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.)'s birthday
— Dec. 21, 2004: First day of winter
— Dec. 23, 2004: Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark's birthday
— Dec. 25, 2004: Christmas Day
— Jan. 6-8, 2005: Southern Political Science Association conference, New Orleans

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