NEWS SUMMARY

The presidential race of late has been defined by negative world events that seem to be dragging George W. Bush's poll numbers down.

But before anyone goes Galluping off and says "Pew ew" about the president's chances, remember all the advantages he has:

1. Big, bold gestures — like today's headline-dominating Rumsfeld trip to Iraq — are going to be possible all year.

2. The consistent tendency of everyone, including Bob Novak and congressional Republicans, to underestimate the administration's ability to make big, bold gestures all year.

3. The computer chip Karl Rove implanted in Ralph Nader's brain in mid-1999.

4. John Kerry keeps making mistakes, including and especially speaking very pessimistically about America. (In the fall, people besides Jodi, Glen, and Ed will Notice, and the errors will matter more … )

5. The tilt of the electoral college.

6. Guns, gays, and God, and the below-the-radar targeting in key states on values issues (particularly outside urban areas in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and others).

7. The peculiar dynamics of the first post-9/11 election might lead a surprisingly high percentage of wrong-track voters to choose to stay with the commander in chief.

8. The loyalty that the POTUS AND VPOTUS earned from congressional Republicans campaigning for majorities in 2002 and raising money for four years means BC04 will never have an Ed Rollins-type problem (i.e, GOP candidates distancing themselves from any presidential problems, as with 41) (Although, check out today's Hill story for a warning sign for the White House … ..).

9. The essential two-step nature of an any incumbent referendum: not only do voters have to fire the incumbent, but they need to be psychologically willing to hire his replacement.

10. The war on terror threshold — mostly missing from Kerry campaign polling memos, we notice — remains Bush's trump card.

11. "Things are tough, stay the course" is almost as good as Bush's 2000 slogan ("You've never had it so good — it's time for a change.").

12. "Strength" without substance … is what, exactly?

13. It's still only May — just like it was a week ago.

14. Blaise H. and her 72-hour machine (Although we highly anticipate the Hazelwood/Nelson/Gurley/GOP interest group versus Vilmain/Whouley/Norris/Hicks/ACT ground battle.).

15. The probable awakening of the conservative 527s.

16. Ken Mehlman's late-night comedy appeal.

Today, President Bush participates in a conversation on high school initiatives at Parkersburg South High School in West Virginia. (America Coming Together has a newspaper ad and a radio spot to rebut him.) Tonight, Bush speaks at the American Conservative Union's 40th Anniversary Banquet in Washington.

Sen. Kerry meets with elected officials and speaks about lowering veterans' health care costs in Little Rock.

Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz, Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Pace and others testify before the Armed Services Committee on the $25 billion Iraq supplemental.

The Senate debates the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act reauthorization bill.

The House debates the permanent extension of the 10 percent tax bracket and the Small Business Health Fairness Act.

The politics of national security:

The New York Times' Sanger and Stevenson come up with pretty thin gruel in terms of on-the-record quotes in trying to illustrate the political peril the Iraq uncertainty is causing the CREEP, and the divisions on the right about what to do next. LINK

Unless, of course, Bill Kristol and George Will rule the world — which they sort of do.

The New York Times' Risen, Johnston, and Lewis report that according to current and former counterterrorism officials, the CIA "has used coercive interrogation methods against a select group of high-level leaders and operatives of Al Qaeda that have produced growing concerns inside the agency about abuses." LINK

The Los Angeles Times reports the congressional screenings of new photos of abuse in the prison "are likely to increase the controversy over whether the pictures should be made public — a decision that lawmakers said rests with the Defense Department." LNIK

The Bush Administration "is pressing ahead this week with a new appeal for democracy and political reform in the Middle East in the face of extreme skepticism in the region and in Europe." LINK

Note that some European officials "said they expected that in light of widespread outrage over American soldiers' abuse of Iraq prisoners, even this new, toned-down document would have to be revised extensively to make it seem less high-handed and arrogant."

There's an 1,800-strong National Guard call-up in Wisconsin … LINK

Tom Friedman wonders whether "we have any chance of succeeding at regime change in Iraq without regime change here at home?" as he looks at the political implications of Iraq, and tells his readers "there is something even more important to the Bush crowd than getting Iraq right, and that's getting re-elected and staying loyal to the conservative base to do so." LINK

The Washington Times allows President Bush several long paragraphs to expound his intention to complete the mission in Iraq. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Rogers reports "U.S. military costs in Iraq and Afghanistan are running close to $4.7 billion a month, and with the additional expense of replenishing worn armored vehicles, helicopters and other equipment, they could easily reach $66 billion for fiscal 2005."

Joe Lockhart, Mike Murphy, and James Carville, among others, offer their "crisis management" advice to Team Bush in the Wall Street Journal .

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

Note to world: folks pay attention when the AP ledes with a sentence like this: "Presidential candidate Senator John Kerry said yesterday that the war in Iraq is a failure and that a shake-up is needed to end the Bush administration's mistakes and incompetence." LINK

… .

Pat Healy of the Boston Globe also sums Kerry's comments in yesterday's AP radio interview as "[He] said the administration has failed and does not deserve a second term." LINK

And/but "Failed"/"Failure" is a strong word to be throwing around, everyone. And the Senator did not use it.

Whereas, as Healy points out, the chair of the president's campaign DID say Sen. Kerry's character is defective.

'''There is a temperament, there is a nature, there is an essence to his character and his capacity as a leader that is defective and is prone toward political opportunism, because more than anything there's this almost insatiable desire to achieve a higher office,' Racicot said of Kerry."

Getting to substance, "Kerry proposed two immediate changes: Oust Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and delay court-martial hearings for Americans charged with mistreating the prisoners," Notes Jim VandeiHei. LINK

And for those of you who enjoyed Diamond Jim's performance on yesterday's Racicot conference call, read his description of "what Racicot did not mention."

The New York Times looks at Kerry's "few words" on Iraq, Noting they are a few too many for Racicot's liking, and getting Rick Davis to say of Racicot and Co. "'I'm sure they're just flailing.'" LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Gold writes that even as Kerry's comments on Iraq sharpened, the Senator "displayed a certain level of caution as he was pressed in several interviews to react to the situation in Iraq, a sign of the charged political terrain he was navigating." LINK

"The four days that Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) is devoting to speeches about health care are part of a broad effort this week by both parties to affirm their commitment to a priority among voters, even as domestic concerns have been overshadowed lately by developments in Iraq," writes the Washington Post's Amy Goldstein. LINK

AP's Liz Sidoti looks at how the Web has become an important part of campaigns' ad strategies, combining both TV and direct mail, targeting viewers or tailored to ZIP codes. Not to mention not having to throw in those pesky "I approve this" messages. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

President Bush travels to Parkersburg, W.Va. today for an event on education but Knight Ridder's Hutcheson reports that the big news here in this town is its third casualty in the war in Iraq. LINK

Hutcheson Notes: "Bush carried the Parkersburg area with more than 60 percent of the vote four years ago, and he remains popular. But even some of his supporters admit queasiness about his handling of the war."

"Rick Modesitt, a local Republican official, described the mood in Parkersburg and surrounding Wood County as 'quiet nervousness.'"

On a conference call with reporters yesterday, BC04 chairman Marc Racicot attacked Sen. Kerry for politicizing the issue of the prisoners in Iraq, calling it "raw political opportunism," but did not define the boundary between appropriate political debate and politicization of issues.

BC04 launched its "W Stands for Women" leadership team in Washington yesterday, with over 200 women supporters in attendance to hear Doro Bush Koch, Liz Cheney, Hon. Elaine Chao, and others stump for the president and highlight his record on issues that are important to women.

Noting key difference in this election year, Rep. Kay Granger highlighted the importance of national security saying, "Today we don't have soccer moms that stand on the sidelines, we have security moms."

The Washington Post's Mike Allen reports "During the hour-long program, homeland protection and the war on terrorism were emphasized over abortion and child care."LINK

BC04 came out with another new ad yesterday, this one a Spanish language ad that focuses on Sen. Kerry's record on education. The ad will run in battleground states Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico on television and radio.

The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz Notes that the Spanish version of Bush's new ad packs a far more negative punch than the original. "The education message changed in translation, with the spicier Spanish version — airing in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico — skewering Bush's Democratic opponent." LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Anderson Notes "The commercials were the president's first in Spanish in several weeks, countering a Democratic campaign against Bush in Spanish-speaking markets underway since early March." LINK

Check out these lead graphs from today's The Hill: "Republicans on the Hill are so frustrated with the White House that when Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) criticized the administration at a House GOP meeting last week, the caucus burst into applause." LINK

And some more: "The catalog of GOP complaints against the executive branch is long. A senior Republican House member said his colleagues frequently disparage the White House communications team, particularly on articulating its policy in Iraq."

The New York Times' Glen Justice writes that according to a study by a group that monitors campaign donations, "employees at 28 firms and their parent companies certified by the Bush administration to be national distributors of discount prescription drug cards contributed about $1.8 million to Republican candidates in this year's election." LINK

Special: Ken Mehlman on The Daily Show:

Stewart: How much money have you raised?

Mehlman: We've raised 200 million and we feel really good about what we've done.

Stewart: What is a Ranger?

Mehlman: A guy who gets us $200,000. If you want to be a Ranger, I can get your information … .

Stewart: What do they get [for their money]?

Mehlman:. They are motivated by strong belief in the President … .typically they are not poor.

Stewart: If [you] don't win, what happens to you?

Mehlman: What kind of jobs do you have available?

ABC News Vote 2004: Sen. John Kerry::

It's hard to tell from the Web, but Sen. Kerry's Orlando stop got largely ho-hum television coverage. LINK and LINKand LINK. Their Web sites all used the AP.

The bigger stories: Disney's profits (yay team!), Disney's agreement with Miramax about Michael Moore's film, and a local murder mystery.

The Orlando Sentinel chose news-of-day (abuse) rather than Kerry message (health strong care strength). LINK

The St. Pete Times' Adam Smith has a fun look at Kerry's banter-style on the trail. LINK

"He tends to speak in slow, windy sentences."

The Boston Globe 's Kerry biographer Michael Kranish and Bryan Bender deliver a must-read for anyone interested in Sen. Kerry's 1971 anti-war stance. Fueled by the Iraqi prison abuse story, the authors talk to a number of Vietnam era leaders, such as former Defense Secretary Richard McNamara, who say that Kerry may not have been so over-exaggerated as the Bush campaign and other veterans have recently claimed. LINK

Charles Hurt of the Washington Times parrots Chairman Racicot's charge that Kerry is politicizing the war. LINK

Challenge to the Washington Times : can any reporter there write a story about Sen. Kerry that doesn't include a mention of Ted Kennedy?

Roll Call reports a meeting this morning between members of the Congressional Black Caucus from key battleground states and top Kerry campaign officials (ex.: Mary Beth Cahill) "to encourage the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee to launch a stronger message offensive against President Bush and to work with them to get out the minority vote."

The Financial Times' Barber points to all the reasons why Kerry should enjoy a "Silent Spring" and "avoid offering a dramatic alternative" to the president's policy when it comes to the issue of Iraq. (Note hint: These include fundraising and message.)

The Wall Street Journal's Wessel criticzes Kerry's health-care plan for cost-shifting.

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

So there is going to be a poll by ACT out today that will claim to show Kerry with a 48-46 lead over Bush in Florida (Nader with 3 and undecided at 3).

Without Nader, the horserace is Kerry ahead 50-47 (1 percent for other and 2 percent for undecided).

The poll claims that independents were moving toward Kerry as the Iraqi prison story escalated. Sample size is 1,000 likely voters. Hamilton Beattie and staff did the grunt work.

However …

While reviewing local television Web sites for coverage of Sen. Kerry's visit, we came across this tease for tonight's newcasts on WKMG, a CBS affiliate … "The number of tourists visiting Florida in the first quarter of 2004 increased 12.4 percent over the same period a year ago," so we'll see …

The Charleston (W.Va.) Gazette quotes Republican gubernatorial nominee Monty Warner painting his Democratic opponent Joe Manchin as "'somewhere between John Kerry at the top and Warren McGraw on the Supreme Court on the other side.'" LINK

Knight Ridder's Fitzgerald and Kuhnhenn look at how Kerry is playing among independent voters, particularly in battleground states. The verdict: despite polls showing the head-to-head matchup about even, the verdict is still out while news overtakes the campaign.LINK

Mark Naymik of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Kerry campaign is setting up field operations in Cleveland, Youngstown, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, and other cities. And it's about time, say local Democratic Party officials. In addition to talking with Ohio spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri, Naymik reports that "The campaign has sent 12 paid staffers to Ohio, including Day ton native and veteran Kerry campaign worker Crystal King, who will be the state's political director, and Beth Leonard, who led Kerry's field operations in Iowa and will do the same here." LINK

The Des Moines Register leads with "Iowa native 'died a hero'" and a profile of 37-year-old Naval Reserve officer Trace Dossett who was killed May 2 in Iraq. LINK

The Detroit Free Press reports that voters in Wayne County, Mich. must pay $6.50 for a list of candidates running for office in their county. LINK

Nader:

The New York Times ' Kit Seelye Notes that the Reform Party has endorsed Ralph Nader. LINK

The DNC's Cabrera urges Nader to "'drop out of the race before November.'" LINK

The Denver Post's Arthur Kane reports that Colorado is one of the states where Nader will appear on the ballot as a result of the Reform Party nod, though he'll likely run as an independent there. LINK

The complete list: Colorado, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina, Florida, and Michigan. Spokesman Zeese told Kane that Nader will decide within the month whether to accept the nomination and which states he'll accept it in.

Correction:

The Note misspelled Jake Siewert's name in several editions yesterday. We regret the error.

Veepstakes:

Gov. Bill Richardson and Gov. Tom Vilsack will tour the Democratic Convention site in Boston today and hold a news availability afterwards.

There's plotting in Gotham to make Sen. McCain Kerry's veep, reports Page Six. LINK

The New York Post's Orin columnizes that all is "veepressing" for the Dems when it comes to the litter of possible picks this year. (We did love her idea of Shrum's idea of John Glenn!) LINK

Sen. Clinton (once again) expresses no interest in being Kerry's no. 2, reports the New York Daily News. LINK

Politics:

Amid signs that the FEC will opt for at least a 90-day delay when it meets today. Republican political operatives tell USA Today 's Jim Drinkard that they will compete with Democrats in raising "soft money" after holding back for months. LINK

Grover Norquist: "If the other guys are doing soft money, we have to do it, too." We'll be watching …

The New York Times 's front page profiles reigning Dem rainmaker Ellen Malcolm. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Cummings and Fialka look at the divided FEC and the proposals it is considering to regulate the 527s.

The Wall Street Journal 's ed board offers a graceful we-told-you-so to those on the left who now say campaign finance reform violates free speech.

Blagojevich versus Daley — a must-read. LINK

On the Hill:

Marc Kaufman of the Washington Post reports that some members of Congress are calling for the resignation of the two FDA officials most responsible for deciding to keep emergency contraception a prescription-only drug. LINK

Well it has finally happened. Roll Call reports that congressional Republicans have finally given up hope on passing a highway bill this Congress. "[T]he bill is caught between two conflicting impulses: the desire to boost the economy and the desire to rein in a ballooning federal deficit."

The conventions:

The Boston Globe 's Phillips reports costs for the Democratic National Convention could be as much as 40 percent higher than originally expected. The host committee says the Democratic Party will have to choose among raising more money, cutting some of the production and construction plans, or asking Sen. Kerry's campaign to chip in. LINK

"One convention organizer said that the production figure, originally pegged at $5.9 million, has exceeded $8 million and that the construction cost estimates, once pegged at $7.2 million, now top $10 million."

The Los Angeles Times examines where the convention cash has flowed thus far. (Hint: It ain't to the Big Apple, goes the story!) LINK

The economy:

"Oil industry officials told federal lawmakers on Wednesday that environmental regulations were driving up the price of gasoline, which is higher than $2 a gallon in some states," reports the New York Times ' Michael Janofsky. LINK

Dow Jones' Goodman reports "gasoline futures leapt to a record settlement price as demand for the fuel surged to the highest level ever posted in May and inventories shrank to less than a month's supply."

The New York Times ' Andrews reports the trade deficit hit "a record $46 billion in March, propelled by a surge in oil imports and oil prices as well as strong demand for imported consumer goods," a development which led Senator Kerry to issue a release accusing the president of being "lax on trade." LINK

Dow Jones' Lagomarsino writes "the U.S. federal government posted a $17.62 billion total budget surplus in April," making it "the smallest April surplus since 1994." Note: The "CBO has projected the deficit will hit $477 billion in the current fiscal year, but said in its latest monthly budget review that recent trends suggest the deficit could be less than that."

Regarding interest rates … The Wall Street Journal 's ed board writes that "should consumer prices once again surprise on the upside" when this Friday's April inflation report comes out, "we'd say the sooner the Fed moves the better."

The politics of same-sex marriage:

The New York Times ' Kirkpatrick writes that Dr. James Dobson is entering the political fray this cycle, "stumping for candidates, drawing a crowd of 20,000 to a rally against same-sex marriage and backing a drive to register conservative Christian voters." Dobson also said "that as a private individual he would endorse and campaign for conservative candidates." LINK

Boston city officials announced yesterday that they will not accept marriage licenses from those gay couples who do not live in Massachusetts or do not plan on moving there, reports the Boston Globe 's Weiss. They will not be required to show proof of residence, but will be forced to sign a form saying they are state residents or have the intention of moving there under penalty of perjury. LINK

The Boston Globe reports that the Episcopal Diocese of Massachusetts, which endorsed same-sex marriage at a convention in March, is joining the majority of mainstream religious denominations and barring priests from officiating at the marriage of same-sex couples. LINK

Ed O'Keefe's Kerry campaign report:

ORLANDO, FLA., May 12 — Sen. John Kerry emerged from the Yacht & Beach Club Resort on the grounds of Walt Disney World to a throng of 50 cheering tourists who waited longer to catch a glimpse of the presumptive Democratic nominee than they would likely wait to ride Space Mountain.

The Massachusetts Senator, having visited Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Florida, wraps up a four-day, four-state focus on health care, making his last stop in Little Rock, Ark., on Thursday.

On Wednesday evening, Kerry attended a minimum of $1,000 per person fundraiser at the Peabody Hotel in Little Rock. The Kerry campaign estimates a $500,000 haul, adding to the Senator's ever-increasing $80 million war chest.

And as Kerry campaigns, Alexandra Kerry, his eldest daughter, has begun lobbying for her 15-minute short film entitled "The Last Full Measure," showing this week at the Cannes Film Festival in France. She arrived with Teresa Heinz Kerry's campaign press secretary in tow, hoping to snatch a distributor for the American Film Institute project.

Not to be outdone, the candidate has attracted a few stars outside the family. The Democratic National Committee officially announced two star-studded June fundraisers to benefit the Kerry Victory Committee.

A Los Angeles fundraiser on June 7 will feature Barbra Streisand, Neil Diamond, Billy Crystal and, in perhaps a bad sign for the Kucinich campaign, Willie Nelson.

In New York on June 10, the Senator welcomes the talents of Bette Midler, James Taylor, John Mellencamp, Jon Bon Jovi, Wyclef Jean, Robin Williams, and Whoopi Goldberg.

Kerry returns to Washington on Thursday, hoping to accomplish some of the "administrative work" often neglected during weeks on the road, and spends Saturday in Boston. Kerry jumps back on the campaign trail Sunday, addressing the Teamsters and holding a fundraiser in Las Vegas before traveling to Topeka, Kan., for the 50th anniversary of the historic Brown vs. The Board of Education Supreme Court decision.

Next week, Kerry joins former rival Howard Dean for their first joint appearance outside Washington, campaigning together in Oregon on Tuesday.

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—9:30 am: Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Peter Pace, and OMB Deputy Director Joel Kaplan testify before the Armed Services Committee about the $25 billion Iraq supplemental

—10:00 am: The House Judiciary Constitutional Subcommittee holds a hearing on the Defense of Marriage Act and the Federal Marriage Amendment at the Capitol

—10:00 am: The Federal Election Commission meets to consider rules on 527 groups, D.C.

—10:15 am: Sen. John Kerry meets with elected officials at the Capital Hotel, Little Rock, Ark.

—11:00 am: Sen. Kerry speaks about lowering veterans' health care costs at the Donald W. Reynolds Center on Aging, Little Rock, Ark.

—7:00 pm: President Bush makes remarks to the American Conservative Union 40th Anniversary Banquet at the JW Marriott Hotel, Washington, D.C.

—7:00 pm: Laura Bush hosts a dinner in honor of the recipients of the National Promise of America Awards presented at the White House