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1. Not view the presidential candidates through the prism of their stereotypes, but, rather, allow for the possibility of growth and nuance.

2. Not judge every development by the standards of the expectations game, but, rather, treat the candidates equally.

3. Hope against hope that we aren't in the process of accumulating frequent flier miles on airlines that will be defunct by February, 2005.

It's the second goal which we would like to address today, as even the March on Baghdad fails to completely obscure the insta-analysis in your finer North American newspapers of what the first-quarter presidential fundraising numbers mean.

As you read our coverage of the coverage below, consider which reporters and pundits are all about the expectations game, and which aren't.

It's a lonely and dangerous game we are playing in trying to lead a movement away from making everything all about expectations, but we think it's worth a try.

The New York Times finds Lieberman's showing to be "surprisingly weak." The word "Gephardt" does not appear in the paper's story. LINK

In the Washington Post , Steve Rosenthal arm-chairs what he sees as Lieberman's "surprising" weakness (flying in the face of one of the most over-spun press releases of the cycle). LINK

The Edsall/Balz opus quotes (Graham adviser?) David Eichenbaum as seeing a boost for Edwards, and Donna Brazile seeing the Tar Heel and Dr. Dean as the big winners.

And there is another interesting David Axelrod quote quite favorable to Senator Edwards.

The Post ies seem all about the expectations game, except when they quote one Democratic strategists who brings things back to earth a bit: "'Dean doesn't get extra points [merely] because he said he was going to raise $1.5 million and got $2.6 million,' the strategist said. 'He's still behind. . . . You can't buy ads with 'beating expectations."'"

The story continues to tout the notion of one or more of the candidates opting out of the public financing system, which we still don't quite get, absent self-funding.

But the AP reports: "(Campaign manager Jim) Jordan said Kerry wants to keep his options open. It could provide a strategic advantage to opt out, 'given that we'll be running against an incumbent president who will himself opt out and raise anywhere from $250 million to $300 million,' he said." LINK

The specter of Ronald Brownstein quoting Stu Rothenberg is enough to give us the willies. LINK

"Kerry emerged 'if not head and shoulders above everybody else, at least a forehead above everyone else,' said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of an independent political newsletter. 'These numbers do raise some questions about whether Kerry was prematurely assigned the position of early front-runner.'"

But Edwards apparently didn't have to prove his fundraising prowess to some. USA Today 's Lawrence, also using Mr. Rothenberg, includes this:

"He's certainly going to be able to get his message out," says Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of an independent political newsletter. "Now the question is, is it a message voters will find appealing and will they conclude that he's capable to be president."LINK

Back to Brownstein, who notes that Kerry has other strengths:

"Even with Edwards' unexpectedly strong financial showing, Kerry retains other formidable strengths in the race: an experienced staff and strong poll numbers in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the two critical early contests. And the Kerry camp, along with operatives for the other campaigns, question whether Edwards can maintain his fund-raising pace."

"The widespread assumption in the Democratic field is that Edwards, a former trial lawyer, benefited from heavy contributions by other lawyers; his campaign didn't release a breakdown. Yet wherever the money came from, the huge haul could provide Edwards with new momentum by showing a broader base of national support than most observers had anticipated … "

"In the political community, Dean's figure was viewed as a promising sign because it easily exceeded the initial expectations for the little-known candidate."

Finally, as Brownstein notes, early money is (sometimes) the single key to victory:

"Sometimes the candidate who leads the pack in the first quarter maintains that advantage through the race, as Bush and Gore did in 2000."

"But some who led at this early milestone — like Rep. Phil Crane (R-Ill.) in 1979 and Senator Joseph R. Biden (D-Del.) in 1987 — faded quickly. In the 1996 Republican contest, former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, who ultimately led the GOP field in fund-raising and won the nomination, finished a distant third in the first quarter of 1995."

The Washington Times found someone to compare Kerry and Edwards to the president. "Ron Faucheux, editor of Campaigns and Elections magazine, called Mr. Edwards' and Mr. Kerry's numbers "a good start" toward the roughly $40 million they likely will need to win the nomination.'" LINK

'But none of their reports have the shock and awe value of the Bush report four years ago,' he added, referring to the more than $30 million Mr. Bush reported in the first quarter of 1999. "That report really knocked everybody out of their chairs.'

"The Connecticut Democrat was expected to lag behind other members of Congress, but his first-quarter numbers put him in a precarious political position," The Hartford Courant's David Lightman writes, casting a skeptical eye at the home-state explanation.

"The staffers explained Lieberman lagged because he got a late start — he was hamstrung by 2000 running mate Al Gore, who waited until Dec 15 to announce he wasn't going to run, and by Connecticut Senator Christopher J. Dodd, who announced March 3 that he would not run." LINK

"Lieberman, they said, had barely hired his staff before January. Finance director Shari Yost, a former official at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, began work on Feb. 24, and the increased fund-raising in March reflects her influence."

"Many political insiders said privately Wednesday that they don't buy all of those explanations. Instead, they pointed to what was perceived as a slow-to-organize campaign and a listless performance at the major candidate event of the year so far — the February joint appearance of the candidates before the Democratic National Committee. Dean, with his rousing anti-war message, got most of the accolades and attention."

"Lieberman did not, and has faced trouble on the campaign trail from anti-war demonstrators annoyed by his strong support for the war."

"The insiders also point out that Lieberman has had advantages others did not. He formally declared his candidacy Jan. 13, well ahead of everyone else, but failed to capitalize on what should have been a big momentum-builder. He raised $300,000 that month and $600,000 in February."

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson covers the release of a "'deeply grateful'" and "'genuinely moved'" Senator Kerry's fundraising tally, observing "Coupled with $3.06 million the Massachusetts Democrat transferred to the account or raised in December and offset by about $1.95 million in spending, Kerry had more than $8 million in cash on hand as the quarter closed Monday, a sum his campaign said was unprecedented in Democratic politics." LINK

Johnson Notes the varying methods of campaign spin, as "the candidates highlighted different facets of their total to argue that they have wide support," with the Edwards campaign focusing on his fundraising total, the Kerry campaign citing "the breadth of its donor base," and the Dean camp pointing to his "grass-roots" Internet success.

The Boston Herald highlights Senator Kerry's $8 million cash on hand total, linking him with Edwards as the two top fundraising dogs. LINK

The Raleigh News and Observer's John Wagner writes that Senator Edwards is "virtually assured" the "best first quarter of fund raising," but also includes the Kerry camp's spin about his total war chest figure being "'a sum unprecedented for any Democratic candidate at this stage of a presidential campaign.'" LINK

Wagner also has Gephardt's Erik Smith promising "'we'll be competitive'" and Lieberman's Jano Cabrera playing up the big March take.

The Charlotte Observer has Senator Edwards being "trailed" in the money game by all other presidential hopefuls, but quotes Jim Jordan looking at the really big picture: "'It shows the Democratic Party is enormously energized and that the kind of activists who contribute see George Bush as quite vulnerable.'" LINK

And we are all left wondering: what's the best nickname to give a bunch of trial lawyer bundlers? "New Pioneers," maybe?

The Politics of War

All in one story: LINK

1. A Mike Murphy quote: "Torie has the very difficult job of squaring the circle between the reality of war and the media's expectations and preconceptions of what war is."

2. A Dan Schnur quote: "You've got to have the stature to stand there next to Rumsfeld and not look like you're a 13-year-old boy or girl. She has the presence to pull that off."

3. A Lorraine Voles quote (big Porter, Novelli day in The Note today): "She's wicked smart. But academics weren't her strong suit."

4. And just about the best quote ever from the woman who is the subject of this New York Times story and a former regular guest on "Here's the Point" — Chevy Chase's Victoria Clarke: "I don't think Americans can trust people who spend more time blow-drying their hair in the morning than I do."

Hats off to Chris Marquis for borrowing Rick Berke's Rolodex for this one!

The Charlotte Observer has Edwards testing the luxuries of Air Force One on his ride with President Bush today. LINK

It's only a mention in passing, but this phenomenon is so rare these days, we thought it best to Note it: the words "Karl" and "Rove" actually show up in the Boston Globe . LINK

Big Casino budget politics:

The New York Times ' peaceful Elisabeth Bumiller looks at the White House's dilemma on the tax cuts; we were glad to see that she was confused as we were about who some of these economists were who met with the president. LINK

At least one of them, however, did NOT like "Boogie Nights." LINK

The Washington Post 's Milbank and VandeHei, in full green-eye-shade mode, write on the same topic (by which we mean the tax cut, not "Boogie Nights"):

"With rising Iraq war costs and economic doldrums at home, the administration is seeking to convince lawmakers and the public that the tax cut is both affordable and necessary to restore economic growth. The administration is planning to release early next week a report that the cost of Bush's tax cut is actually 30 percent to 40 percent less because of the economic growth — and therefore tax revenue — the plan spurs. It will argue that the Iraq war, rather than being reason to limit the tax cut, increases the need for economic stimulus."

USA Today measures the bumps the president's legislative agenda has stumbled over.

"A quiet rebellion by some Republicans and a newfound unity among Democrats is likely to force the president to reduce the size of the tax cut he sought, spend more on airline aid and smallpox compensation than he wanted and curtail his campaign promise to provide more social services through churches and synagogues." LINK

Fending off additions to the military supplemental ain't easy. LINK

And it annoys the heck out of Bob "Fear the Turtle Still" Novak. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

In the midst of all this fundraising fuss, the AP's Scott Mooneyham follows up on Senator Edwards' "equally pressing task of shoring up his political support back home." LINK

Despite his recent fundraising victory, polls say Edwards still gets trounced in a general election against Bush, and his presidential bid is unpopular with North Carolina voters. Edwards therefore has increased his appearances in his home state, and has focused more on local issues of late, while observers question how long he can straddle both races.

Mooneyham writes: "In a sign that Edwards understands the political dynamic, he is sending his wife, Elizabeth, to the New Hampshire Democratic Convention this weekend, while he attends a Democratic Party event in western North Carolina."

John DiStaso writes that Senator Edwards may lose the support of two top attorneys he had courted, that Gary Hart is telling friends he's increasingly certain to run for president, and that Senator Bob Graham has begun to call New Hampshire Democrats. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Harwood finds Dr. Dean's war stance as "clear" as a vodka tonic at Mod, where Dean, as we Noted yesterday, held court with hipsters.

"Mr. Dean soon may face stepped-up competition for the backing of antiwar Democrats. Senator Bob Graham of Florida, who voted against authorizing force and plans to enter the race soon, has charged lately that the Bush administration soft-pedaled its public assessments of the challenges facing U.S. forces in order to prop up domestic support."

"Some Democratic centrists fear that an escalation of antiwar sentiment could end up crippling the party's eventual nominee among mainstream voters — especially if Mr. Bush's policy ultimately is vindicated by victory."

The Forward has Lieberman staff news … the hiring of Footlik and Ash. LINK

When he wasn't reading about himself on the men's room wall in Hanover, New Hampshire a few days ago, Salon's Jake Tapper talked to Gary Hart. LINK

Senator Hart plans a visit to Iowa next week. On Tuesday, he's expected to join the Linn County Democratic Party for lunch.

In New Hampshire yesterday, Senator. Kerry called for a "regime change" in the US. LINK

Glen Johnson also covers Kerry's "barrage of criticism." LINK

Republicans in Iowa want to change voting rules there, and the legislative battle is shaping up around the familiar poles of access versus fraud. LINK

The Reverend Al Sharpton intends to flex his foreign policy muscles a bit today.

At 9:15 this morning, the presidential hopeful plans to have his third meeting with Iraqi Ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammed Aldouri.

In addition to comparing Notes on how to stay trim on a green room diet, sources tell The Note that Sharpton wants to talk with the Ambassador about assuring safety for the POW's and allowing the Red Cross in to see them.

Politics:

The New York Times ' Steven Greenhouse stays on the Ullico story. LINK

The New York Post picks up the Rudy Giuliani interview with Esquire, in which he reiterates his support for President Bush in 2004 but doesn't rule out a presidential run in 2008. LINK

Lloyd Grove has an item about co-host Tom Daschle's party for the paperback release of new pal David Brock's book. LINK

Stranger things have happened, but we aren't exactly sure what would be on the list: call him PRESIDENT Michael K. Frisby. LINK

Oh, and call HIM Mr. Tipps — J. Mark is going to come to Washington to pet the Mad Dog "a couple of times a month."