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NEWS SUMMARY ——————————————————————————

Leaving aside those events that are unexpected but highly anticipated, we already know we will get:

-- President Bush barnstorming for his tax cut

-- at least two major health care speeches (from Dean and Kerry, with the former leapfrogging the latter temporally, if [not] temporarily)

-- buckets and buckets of major Invisible Primary travel, culminating in Saturday's AFSCME event in Polk County that will draw 7 candidates in person (with another one live by remote and one on tape)

-- more big Big Casino developments

-- a major push for The Note (and the Googling monkeys) in the Webby Awards People's Voice category

-- more on the Daschle Wars, with the Club for Growth apparently going on the air in South Dakota, and Senator Daschle being held accountable for a statement he made about the timing of his Bush war criticism

-- Wes Clark quixotically heading to New Hamsphire

-- a big Democratic Leadership Council confab

And the last 72 hours have seen some seminal must-reads:

1. Nagourney on Kerry v. Dean

2. Milbank and Balz on the POTUS' tax-cutting agenda

3. Hooks and Brownstein on the Democrats quandary over the POTUS' tax-cutting agenda

Not even Doug Kiker could write a thematic lead subsuming all of this, so we are going straight to the schedule:

Today, with the president doing tax hits in New Mexico (swing state) and Nebraska (home of a swing Democratic senate vote), Wes Clark speaks to the Manchester Rotary Club about his "Vision of America."

He later has an open-press meeting with friends at the Merrimack Restaurant. We have no clue at this writing what is up with this, and Wolf chose not to ask him.

Also today Senator Edwards travels to Oklahoma City to talk to Democrats there.

Tomorrow, Howard Dean unveils his health care plan in New York, and Senator Lieberman speaks as part of the DL21C's "Road to the White House" series in the same city.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the DLC regroups and re-gathers in DC.

On Thursday, Senator Kerry lays out his own health care plan in Des Moines.

On Friday, several presidential candidates are expected to attend an AFSCME reception at the Polk County Convention Center in Des Moines. Senator Edwards will attend a "Professionals for Edwards" reception in Chicago. Senator Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire.

Saturday, seven of nine candidates will participate in person at the AFSCME town hall meeting. Kerry will appear via satellite from New Hampshire, where he is giving a commencement address. Senator Lieberman will prepare a taped message.

On Sunday, Senator Tom Harkin hosts Governor Dean at his Hear It From the Heartland forum in Davenport, and Representative Gephardt campaigns in southeast Iowa.

Tomorrow, President Bush takes his tax cut tour to Indianapolis. On Wednesday, he meets with the president of South Korea.

On Thursday, he speaks to the Second National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast at the Capital Hilton. On Friday, he meets with the Prime Minister of Norway and oversees the presentation of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy in the Rose Garden.

But the big short-term stop is in Nebraska today, where the Bush-Nelson dance will be much watched.

"When President Bush drops into Omaha Monday to campaign for his tax cut bill, U.S. Senator Ben Nelson isn't the only one who would like to hear him voice support for financial aid to cash-strapped states," the Omaha World-Herald reports.

"Senator Chuck Grassley, the Iowa Republican who is spearheading the Senate's effort to pass a tax cut bill, said he, too, thinks the president should endorse financial aid." LINK

"'It is the key, not only to getting a bill out of the Senate, but to getting one' to the president's desk, Grassley said Saturday. 'I hope the president will be able to assure Ben Nelson of that Monday. It would make my job a lot easier.'"

The head of Airlite Plastics keeps adding worker options, but the day off with pay still isn't one of them (yet). LINK

ABC 2004: CREEP:

Ronald Brownstein tries to get at the real strategy behind questioning the president's flight to the USS Lincoln:

"Few Democrats think the Lincoln accusations will take much of a bite out of Bush's support today. Some party strategists have even complained that the congressional Democrats raising the issue are helping Bush by providing cable networks an excuse to continue running the footage of the president sauntering across the ship's deck in a jaunty flight suit." LINK

"But one Democratic operative involved in fanning the flames over the flight said that was a worthwhile price to pay to advance two other goals: Making the White House think twice about drafting a military audience for such a campaign-style event again and discouraging it from using footage from the Lincoln in campaign ads next year."

"'I'd rather have it on television now and improve our ability to play defense on it 15 months from now,' the operative said."

But Brownstein quotes a Republican operative close to the White House who pours cold water on that idea.

In Sunday's San Francisco Chronicle, Carla Marinucci writes, "With the help of the military and the full weight of his office, President George W. Bush has unleashed a "shock and awe" re-election campaign that is astounding and confounding his political rivals everywhere, even in Democratic-leaning California." LINK

Marinucci writes, "The lack of passionate connection with any of the pack of Democratic candidates has led many party stalwarts to plunge into a political equivalent of the singles scene."

The Dallas Morning News' G. Robert Hillman writes, "In a series of partisan e-mails and Web site postings, closed-door strategy sessions and quiet forays around the country, the Bush political team has worked, even as the nation was at war with Iraq, to rally the Republican faithful and soften up the would-be Democratic opposition." LINK

The State's Jeff Stensland reports on the president's Friday commencement address to graduates at the University of South Carolina. LINK

"Some said Bush's visit seemed to have a calming effect on the audience, a change from the sometimes unruly atmosphere at previous USC commencement ceremonies."

"No one shouted or blasted air-horns. The audience even sat quietly when the arena's air conditioning system on the ceiling made a series of loud, ominous popping noises during a portion of Bush's address."

And The State's Lauren Markoe finds that "South Carolinians — even Democrats — who heard President Bush speak to USC graduates on Friday found much to praise and little to criticize." LINK

The New York Times ' F.X. Clines had a weekend editorial analysis of Karl Rove's New Hampshire sojourn, arching an eyebrow at some of Mr. Rove's assertions about Republicans terrorism and straightforwardly engaging others. LINK

The Washington Times looks at "stealth" GOP efforts to attract black Republicans. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary meets Big Casino:

On Sunday, the Washington Post 's Dana Milbank and Dan Balz did path-breaking, must-reading work on the political centrality of tax cutting to the Bush presidency. LINK

"With the House's passage of a $550 billion tax cut plan, Congress is moving toward the third tax reduction in as many years for President Bush — the same number passed in an entire generation before he came to office."

"Yet the impressive trio of reductions is but a small step toward the administration's goal: nonstop tax cuts."

"White House officials have told allies they will attempt a new tax cut every year Bush remains in office, and there is already talk of another round. The ultimate target — overhauling the tax code and sharply reducing the size of the government — may never be achieved. But the incremental steps in that direction help to keep the Republican Party unified and the president in an unending debate with Democrats over the tax burden on Americans."

"Coupled with the war on terrorism, which also is likely to continue indefinitely, the constant pursuit of tax reductions has the potential to give U.S. politics a new rhythm. With Bush perpetually fighting for lower taxes and constantly battling terrorists — he describes Iraq and Afghanistan as "battles" in the larger war — there is little room for government to discuss new spending programs that Democrats want … "

While the writers quote some Republican strategists expressing concern about the tact, " … .Bush's tax cut strategy, by gradually reducing the supply of federal funds, has the potential to keep the GOP unified and Democrats on the defensive without frightening a cautious public. 'A tax cut bill a year keeps the Democrats away,' said Kenneth Duberstein, who was chief of staff to Ronald Reagan. 'Americans like their changes in bite-size pieces and not in huge chunks.'"

"Democrats acknowledged that there is no strong constituency opposed to tax cuts. In other words, Bush has found, for now, a relatively cost-free way to appeal to his base without inciting a revolt among independent voters or Democrats who might be attracted to him for other reasons."

"'I think Bush has always used tax cuts to define Democrats as the party of government,' said Bruce Reed, former president Bill Clinton's chief domestic policy adviser.'It doesn't do the economy any good, but it does Democrats some harm, ' said Reed, who is now at the Democratic Leadership Council."

There are sage words from Mellman and Garin as well.

Meanwhile, Bruce Reed also plays a starring role in the Ron Brownstein/Janet Hook Los Angeles Times must-read that also ran yesterday. LINK

Arguing cleanly that the passage of the acceleration of the rate cuts will put Democrats in a bad position, the two close by quoting Reed thusly:

"But Reed, now the president of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, countered: 'If a Democratic candidate can't convince the country that Bush's tax cuts are giving away money we don't have to people who don't need it, that candidate doesn't deserve to win anyway.'"

But Reed surely knows how tough this headline is for his party: "Accelerating the tax cuts would force the hand of Democrats: Accept them, or raise taxes to fund programs and risk the wrath of voters."

And the lead is a killer too: "With little notice, the tax bills moving toward completion in Congress could significantly change the landscape of next year's presidential campaign … "

And deep down, this: "Neither Kerry, Lieberman, Graham nor Edwards yet will say whether they would propose to repeal those reductions if they became law."

"Most Democratic analysts believe the four will have no choice but to eventually propose repealing the rate cuts for the top earners. Orszag calculates that freezing the two top tax rates at the 2001 level would save $211 billion over the next decade. Without that money, it is difficult to see how Democrats could fund any of the other programs they are proposing — including alternative tax cuts for middle-class families."

"'I don't see where they have any choice but [support] repeal,' said Stanley B. Greenberg, the pollster for Clinton in 1992 and Al Gore in 2000."

But this is a group of Democrats who couldn't even convince the public of its point of view that stopping future tax cuts doesn't amount to a tax increase … …

How they would do defending an unambiguous tax incease is anyone's guess, except Karl Rove's.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney nestles comfortably back on the front page, ripping the bark off of the long-bubbling tensions between candidates Kerry and Dean. LINK

Nagourney looks at the serious stakes involved, with what is most certainly an Invisible Primary must-read, insomuchas:

1. It reveals for our lay readers (and Adam's) that the Kerry campaign has taken to derisively calling Dr. Dean "Ho-Ho" (although we disagree with Adam's spelling).

2. It says both candidates now regret how much they Collided in Columbia.

3. It has Dr. Dean's own analysis for why he looked so grumpy in the debate.

4. It has this Pogo LINK Paragraph: "And to the continued frustration of Mr. Kerry and his advisers, Dr. Dean enjoys the freedom that comes with being someone viewed as unlikely to win. That has given him considerable leeway in saying the kind of things that would get a more established candidate in trouble."

5. It has enough good stuff from interviews with both candidates to keep the tension more than alive.

In today's Roll Call , Stu Rothenberg takes a look at the Edwards v. Gephardt matchup for the populist vote — a vote, Rothenberg asserts, that may be diminishing within the Democratic party.

"Fifty years ago, the populist pie would have been much larger than the upscale pie for the Democrats. But the decline of the industrial unions and the defection of pro-life, pro-gun, working-class voters over to the GOP has changed the makeup of the Democratic Party, making it difficult for both Gephardt and Edwards to emerge as finalists for their party's nomination."

"While the Democrats still have an important blue-collar constituency within organized labor, the party now has other equally crucial constituencies, including environmentalists, women, African Americans, teachers and even Hollywood. Quality-of-life issues have brought more upscale social liberals into the party, changing Democratic priorities and style."

Overall, the Los Angeles Times ' Barabak sees a wide-open race struggling for direction. LINK

Time coverboy Joe Klein says Democrats need to get right on defense, be big, and bold, and funny, and stop listening to consultants. LINK

He's got some high-concept graphic comparing each of the Gang of Nine to an historical antecedent/analogue that we don't quite get, and this quote from Bob Shrum:

"People understand what shrink-wrapped language sounds like. They want to feel that politicians are speaking directly to them, without marketing or intermediaries. This was a real strength Bush and McCain had in 2000. They didn't talk like the usual Republicans. Bush talked about compassionate conservatism and passionately about education. And we all know about the freshness McCain brought to the campaign."

Check out the Roger Simon/Dan Balz photo on page 30!

The Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin has the best Democratic presidential campaign bundlers story of the cycle to date, giving a good sense of how the process works, and how much harder it is to raise money (even at $2,000 a pop) if you toil in the Pioneer-less party. LINK

Read to the very last paragraph, and you will be rewarded. And it's a must-read.

"Three Democratic presidential candidates said in Iowa on Saturday that President Bush can be defeated in 2004 despite his postwar popularity, but they differ on why they think the president is vulnerable," the Des Moines Register reports. LINK

Former Senator Bill Bradley has been working for McKinsey & Company studying how nonprofit organizations spend their money. LINK

George McGovern re-litigates the 1972 election; celebrates internationalism; and resists becoming an adjective — all in a Washington Post op-ed, taking exception with Will Marshall's May 1 piece, and illustrating McGovern's skill at rapid response. LINK

Frank Rich wrote about the Invisible Primary (sort of) on Sunday. LINK

DEAN

The Des Moines Register 's Beaumont previews Dean's health care proposal: LINK

The Associated Press' Glover has the details: "The plan would expand programs that offer health coverage to children of the working poor, provide a new private insurance benefit with a refundable tax credit for the uninsured who can't afford the reduced premiums and give tax incentives to businesses which offer coverage."

"'We're going to do it as a side-by-side with Gephardt's plan,' said Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi. 'It will provide coverage for more Americans than the Gephardt plan and would cost under half of what the Gephardt plan would cost."" LINK

"Gephardt has called for repealing most of President Bush's tax cut, using that money to pay for a universal health care plan that by some estimates would cost $247 billion by the third year. Dean, a physician, has crafted a more complex proposal."

"There is currently a program offering subsidized health care for children of the working poor, and Dean would expand that to cover all youngsters up to the age of 25, and to adults who meet income guidelines."

"Trippi said the package also would offer private coverage equivalent to that given to federal workers at reduced rate. The refundable tax credit for the uninsured would go to those unable to afford even the reduced rates."

"Since many people get insurance coverage through the workplace, Trippi said Dean's plan also would focus on employers. For employers who have larger than a set number of workers, Dean would put in place tax incentives for providing health insurance. That means businesses that decide to drop coverage for workers would face a tax penalty that could make it more likely they would continue coverage."

Howard Fineman calls Dean a high-tech insurgent, taking a brief look at how Meetup.com fits in his campaign. LINK

Those plain-spoken Southerners just love the Yankee doctor's bluntness. LINK

GRAHAM

The Washington Post 's Howard Kurtz addresses the engaging Leibovich/Graham/Couric farce, helpfully captalizing the words: "A PARODY," but observing "the joke apparently was lost on NBC's Katie Couric." LINK

More home state polling shows President Bush would probably defeat Senator Graham in a head-to-head contest: LINK

Even among independents … . LINK

Still, Time magazine gives this front-of-the-book kiss to the Graham campaign, which is still, despite this item, being treated dismissively by many: "He's hardly registering in the polls, but Senator Bob Graham's formal entry last week into the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is nonetheless bad news for nearly everyone else in the crowded field. 'He's the Swiss Army knife,' sighs an adviser to one of the other candidates. 'No matter how you open him, he hurts somebody.' Graham has drawbacks, including a lackluster stump style and his late start, which puts him behind the rest of the field in the crucial area of building a political network. But he offers Democrats their best shot at winning the state that swung the whole election in 2000. That could make him the front runner for another position: as the ultimate winner's running mate."

On "Face," Karen Tumulty, who wrote the item with someone else, claimed that Bob Graham is making the other Democrats in the race "nervous."

Doyle McManus said that Graham could get traction on homeland security.

The New York Post 's Vincent Morris picks up Senator Bob Graham's criticism on CBS of the White House's past and present 9/11 errors: "'I think what they are shooting at is to cover up the failures'". LINK

The Washington Times has it too.

LINK

Here's how the Orlando Sentinel's Silva opens his story on Senator Graham's first workday, which was Friday: "Sean Churchill, president of his senior class at Oyster River High School, had a personal question Friday for his teacher of the day, Bob Graham, the Florida senator running for president of the United States." LINK

"'Most Americans are retired at your age,' said Churchill, 18, asking Graham about heart surgery earlier this year that delayed his entry to the race."

"It's not exactly the way you prefer to start a campaign for president,' replied Graham, at 66 the oldest of the Democratic candidates. But, he said, 'I feel strong.'"

Retail politick-y coverage from the Nashua Telegraph : LINK, the Foster's Daily Democrat LINK

LIEBERMAN

Dear Rabbi:

Is the Lieberman campaign staff morally obligated to show the candidate the Saturday clips if they aren't positive?

Signed,

JC

A truly germane question, what with Tom Edsall's Saturday Washington Post story suggesting that Lieberman's problems with liberal AND conservative Jews are only part of his overall problem with those who vote in early Democratic primaries and caucuses, and those who give cash. LINK

"As his rivals tilt left, Lieberman has been tagged as too conservative to win the crucial support of the party's liberal base — and that has dampened his fundraising. Lieberman's staff members say he has gotten the message and is working hard to emphasize his appeal to core Democrats on a variety of domestic issues." LINK

And even his boffo performance during last weekend's debate might re-enforce that image, paradoxically making it even difficult to raise money:

"Lieberman had his best moment of the campaign in last Saturday's Democratic debate in South Carolina with a forceful performance in which he chided his rivals on Iraq and health care. But in doing so he may have reinforced his image as the most conservative candidate on the stage, rather than moving demonstrably to the left to project a new image."

"The opening months of 2003 have revealed the complex, and sometimes conflicting, forces influencing the course of the Lieberman campaign in ways for which the campaign had not planned."

"Lieberman, an observant Jew, energized Jewish voters across the country in 2000, but now strong Israel backers and potential Jewish donors view Lieberman as less committed than President Bush to Israel. This is in part because Lieberman has voiced interest in Saudi-initiated peace proposals and because he has criticized Bush for failing to push hard enough for an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Some of those voters, Lieberman supporters worry, could end up supporting Bush."

The blind quotes from Lieberman "supporters" are pretty grim.

Better to show the candidate Peter Beinart's Wall Street Journal op-ed, which advises that the only way Marcia's boy can win the nomination is to Sister Soulja the teachers unions on vouchers and come out for a middle class tax cut.

Or this Wall Street Journal correction from today: "Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman said during his 2000 campaign as Al Gore's running mate that he continued to support school vouchers, but that he accepted that this wouldn't be the policy of a Gore presidency. Friday's Washington Wire said Senator Lieberman had 'backed off his endorsement' of the vouchers during the campaign."

Or remind him of all his boffo New Hampshire and Iowa endorsements, including the latest:

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller's endorsement of Lieberman is pretty big indeed.

Marcia Lieberman was up early on Mother's Day, sending us an e-mail request to donate to her Joey's campaign.

But "scheduling snafus" kept Marcia Lieberman from campaigning for her son. LINK

While attending a Florida Marlins game last Thursday night, Lieberman fielded questions from sports reporters and David Lightman was, of course, on hand to catch it all. LINK

GEPHARDT

The St. Louis Post Dispatch's Donald E. Franklin writes, "Loreen Gephardt, mother of presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, D-Mo., died Friday night (May 9, 2003) of a heart ailment at Delmar Gardens South in south St. Louis County. She was 95." LINK

"As recently as February, Mrs. Gephardt joined her son for his announcement that he would seek the Democratic nomination for president. In earlier campaigns, Mrs. Gephardt went door to door canvassing for her son."

"And in 1976, she launched him toward political fame by calling him early on the morning he planned to announce a run for St. Louis mayor. She told him the newspaper was reporting U.S. Rep. Leonor K. Sullivan wasn't planning on running for re-election. He filed that day to run for her seat."

"In a 1987 interview with the Post-Dispatch, Mrs. Gephardt said that she never pushed her son into politics but that the 'hand of God' played a role. She said she didn't guide her sons' career choices and 'always felt they were happier doing what they wanted to do.'"

Our condolences to the Congressman and his family at this difficult time.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Deirdre Shesgreen filed this report late Friday night: "Rep. Richard Gephardt's daughter Chrissy, a lesbian, will be helping the congressman to try to secure support from gays and lesbians as he campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination." LINK

"Gephardt said Chrissy, a 30-year-old social worker who was previously married and divorced, would not just be focusing on gays but would help his campaign on a broad array of issues, including health care and poverty."

Roll Call continues to own the Gephardt/MOC endorsement beat which appears to be cresting this week.

"Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) will unveil the House backers of his presidential bid this week, but his centerpiece endorsement — from Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — will largely be in name only."

"Highly placed sources in the Democratic Caucus said Gephardt is still trying to round out his rollout list, which will be announced either Wednesday or Thursday."

"Pelosi said last week that any endorsement of hers would have to be in name only and not backed by active campaigning for her colleague, given her busy schedule running the House and looking to put her party back into the majority in 2004. She said of her endorsement, 'by and large it will be my name.'"

Robert Novak airs what he knows about why Representative James Clyburn hasn't yet endorsed Congressman Gephardt: he wants to keep the South Carolina primary honest. LINK

KERRY

On Saturday, the Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson reported that the Big Chill between the Bay State Senators is gone, with a boffo opening anecdote. LINK

Kerry says he supports ending the double taxation of dividends but not as part of this president's economic package.

LINK

Bob Jones University spokesman Jonathan Pait on Senator Kerry's self-invite to that school:

"Is he crazy?" LINK

Don Lambro calls Kerry's record on defense issues "liberal." LINK

The New York Post 's quirky Cindy Adams offers this rendering of Teresa Heinz Kerry's planned financial participation: "Senator John Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz, of the fortune of the ketchup of the same name, won't bankroll hubby's presidential run unless his credibility's attacked and they must fund the defense. Translation: the piggy bank opens only after the little people put in their little money. " LINK

Manchester Union Leader columnist Bernadette Malone thinks Teresa Heinz Kerry would be a fantastic first lady.

LINK

Christopher Buckley has a one-page humor piece in the New Yorker that is either making fun of Senator Kerry, OR making fun of people who make fun of Senator Kerry. (We aren't smart enough to tell which it is.)

Anyway, it's on page 44.

EDWARDS

The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill and Tim Funk look at how John Edwards' presidential aspirations may hurt his chances for reelection back home in North Carolina. LINK

"This week in Boston, U.S. Senator John Edwards lavishly praised Ted Kennedy, one of the Senate's most outspoken liberals. Tonight he keynotes an Atlanta gala for America's largest gay rights group. Next week he plans to court organized labor in Iowa."

"For most N.C. Democrats, that would amount to a political death wish."

"But it underscores the fine line Edwards walks as he pursues his party's presidential nomination while keeping the door open to a 2004 Senate re-election bid."

"As a presidential candidate, Edwards must appeal to the liberal Democrats who vote disproportionately in caucuses and primaries. As a Senate candidate he would have to court moderate Southern voters back home."

The Associated Press reports that Senator Edwards "voiced his support for adoptions by gay parents" Saturday night "at an event held by the Human Rights Campaign, the nation's largest gay-rights group. His speech also included calls for greater workplace protections and stepped-up efforts to find an AIDS vaccine." LINK

You city slicker reporters (yes, you, Roger Simon) who think John Edwards' chances of winning the nomination died the moment he left the Clyburn fish fry early had better to double back and read yesterday's Lee Bandy, in which the whole scheme is laid bare. LINK

John Wagner uses Senator Edwards speech to the Human Rights Campaign as a way to look at the battle for the gay vote within the Democratic presidential primary. <LINK

"With nine Democrats seeking their party's presidential nomination, the courting of the gay voter is under way as never before. It is partly a reflection of a changing American culture and partly an acknowledgment of political reality."

Wagner goes on to describe Senator Edwards' support for gay couples adopting children as well as his commitment to fight against workplace discrimination. However, Senator Edwards does not appear ready to support gay marriage or federally recognized civil unions.

"During his 1998 Senate race, Edwards said he was opposed to gay marriage. Although he does not object to states' recognizing civil unions, he continues to have reservations about both gay marriage and civil unions, Edwards' campaign spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, said Sunday. "

"'It's an issue he thinks the country — and North Carolina — is not ready for,' Palmieri said.

John Edwards says it was simply time for new neckties. But the Raleigh News & Observer's Karen Guzman sees a much greater significance in the Senator's new style <LINK

"If "clothes maketh the man," as Shakespeare claims, John Edwards wants the world to know he's a bold guy who's not afraid to stand alone. That's if you listen to his neckties."

"The North Carolina senator who's vying for the Democratic presidential nomination recently jazzed up his wardrobe with some striped ties. They've been popping up regularly as he has traversed Capitol Hill and worked the campaign trail in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina."

"When asked whether they had had any strategic significance, Edwards replied, 'Absolutely none. My other ties were getting worn out, and [his wife] Elizabeth bought me some new ones. Elizabeth buys all my clothes.'"

KUCINICH

As previously Noted, Congressman Kucinich's health care plan is unusual for its willingness to "eliminate the role of private health insurers altogether." LINK

MOSLEY BRAUN

The former Illinois senator plans to be live online today at 11:30 am with our polling partner friends at the Washington Post . LINK

Expect some tough questions from the German Marshall Fund.

SOUTH CAROLINA

The State's Aaron Sheinin took last week to reflect on the Democrats' weekend in Columbia, and on Sunday he shared his thoughts about some media misconceptions about the Palmetto State, the weather, and the open bar at the fish fry. LINK

Sheinin Notes that the Washington Post 's Mark Leibovich "wrote a terrific look at the entire weekend," but Leibovich's description of "early-summer humidity" was a little off. Sheinin asserts that Leibovich "must have just stepped out of the shower when he thought of that line and confused shower steam for humidity. Mr. Leibovich, we know humidity. We wade in humidity. That wasn't humidity."

Mark: we have to side with Aaron on this one.

Big Casino budget politics:

The Wall Street Journal 's master of the Congress, David Rogers, has a Big Casino re-set overview, with this:

"Nothing is final until the two chambers meet in conference. From a purely legislative standpoint, Senate debate is sort of a Sadie Hawkins Day race that must be endured before Republicans can go behind closed doors again and strike a deal. 'Their strategy is a fast exit, ours is a laborious debate,' joked Mr. Daschle."

"But Mr. Bush is so vested politically in the dividend-repeal approach that the White House and conservative Republicans want to make another run at the issue on the floor. The leadership has prepared an amendment that would phase in as much as 75% or 100% repeal, at least temporarily. Even if this offends some moderates as too gimmicky, the administration hopes to win over Democrats such as (Nebraska Senator Ben) Nelson to get final passage … "

"Meanwhile, in a little-noticed move, the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation issued a first-ever report on the total economic effects of the House tax plan. The report generally endorses the House plan's short-term benefits, but threw cold water on the idea that it eventually could pay for itself through faster economic growth. The report also found that the House plan's long-term benefits would be outweighed within a few years by its impact on the federal budget deficit."

"Democrats were quick to use the findings to criticize the tax plan. Adding to Republicans' frustrations was a new Congressional Budget Office estimate of the 2003 deficit showing it likely would reach $300 billion, even without any tax cuts."

The Wall Street Journal 's John McKinnon says, "A proposal to repeal a big tax break for U.S. citizens living abroad would cause multinationals to slash their use of American workers overseas, and would hit small businesses even harder."

"The plan — unexpectedly included in a tax-cut bill that the Senate Finance Committee passed late last week — touched off a frantic lobbying effort by employer groups eager to preserve the break."

Meanwhile, the Journal's ed board wants more and faster tax cuts, and seems to dispute the administration's notion that the economy was helped by the first Bush tax cut.

The New York Post 's Vincent Morris asserts "It'll be a GOP civil war as House and Senate Republicans begin their battle over the fate of President Bush's tax-cut plan in earnest today. " LINK

The New York Times ' David Rosenbaum took a Sunday look at the president's inevitable (?) win on taxes. LINK

He also provides quite the lesson on sunsets of the non romantic variety.

How would Dan Bartlett and Karen Hughes rate the job Secretary Snow did on the Sunday shows? LINK

How would Paul O'Neill rate it?

Times' Karen Tumulty reports on all the governors' big budget problems, leading with Gray Davis but leaving almost no stone unturned.

Judicial confirmation battles:

The New York Post 's editorial page thinks Senator Frist's (and Miller's) anti-filibuster measure is a "reasonable compromise." LINK

Legislative agenda:

The Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman writes that President Bush's "wartime success is not translating into domestic victories, and many of his cherished domestic programs are in serious trouble." LINK

"Bush is not the first president to face such problems. Congress has historically bowed to the president on matters of foreign policy and national security, such as the war against terrorism and the war against Iraq. But lawmakers seldom defer to presidents on legislative initiatives that affect the home front."

"Democrats in particular seem unimpressed by Bush's wartime accomplishments when it comes to hammering out domestic legislative details. Some Democrats believe they have the more popular positions on domestic matters and insist that Bush is vulnerable in that arena."

The New York Times ' Carl Hulse gets an awful lot of space to say that the House and Senate don't like each other. LINK

Helen Dewar in the Washington Post on constitutional amendments. LINK

The Wall Street Journal ed board looks at aiding and abetting trial lawyers by GOP MOCs.

Politics:

Opposition to displaying the Confederate flag in the South may be politically dangerous terrain.

But today former Southern Governors Roy Barnes (D) of Georgia and David Beasley (R) of South Carolina are being awarded the Kennedy Library's Profile in Courage award LINK for their stance on the issue. Also receiving the award today is former Georgia State Representative Dan Ponder, Jr. (R) in recognition of his fight to pass hate crime legislation.

The New York Post writes that Senator Hillary Clinton is recording the audio version of "Living History," as she did for "It Takes a Village" (which won a Grammy). LINK

The New York Times ' Ray Hernandez took a look at Chuck Schumer's large campaign warchest and wonders if the upcoming Republican convention to be held in New York next summer is being used to scare up contributions. LINK

The New York Daily News reports that a "contentious exchange with the powerful Terry MacAuliffe" may have been a factor in the departure of a radio host. LINK

The New York Times describes Bill Clinton's commencement address at Syracuse University. LINK

The Syracuse Post-Standard's Nancy Buczek reports on Syracuse University's graduation, where "Instead of the traditional mortar board, [former President] Clinton wore a black Nike baseball-style hat like the ones worn by the SU Orangemen after they won the 2003 NCAA basketball championship. He waved to the crowd and shook hands with faculty members and students as he passed." LINK

The New York Daily News was watching Mayor Bloomberg on This Week With George Stephanopoulos yesterday. LINK

The New York Times gets all lovey dovey with Sid Blumenthal's book. LINK

This week on Here's the Point, ABCNEWS Political Director Mark Halperin welcomes political consultant and author Raymond Strother as his guest.

Strother discusses his new book, Falling Up: How a Redneck Helped Invent Political Consulting.

Mr. Strother talks about the early days of political consulting, when it used to be a little "more art than science." He also discusses the trials and tribulations of arriving in Washington with a Southern accent and his disappointment that his former client, Gary Hart, opted out of the 2004 presidential race.

Listen to the show here. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Jason Riley has a rah-rah op-ed on behalf of Pat Toomey's effort to successfully primary Arlen Specter.

Webby Awards update:

With just 11 days to go in the voting for the Webby Awards coveted People's Voice, The Note is now at its lowest vote total in weeks.

From a high of 68% of the vote, The Note is now down to 29%, with a slim lead over both write-in statedemocracy.com and moveon.org.

If you didn't believe we could lose, believe it.

In fact, as renowed Northern Kentucky University Assistant Professor of Political Science Michael Baranowski wrote this weekend on this very matter:

"Since I've started tracking, The Note has been moving down an average of 0.59 per day. while State Democracy has been moving up an average of 0.53 per day. The Note has been holding steady at 30% for the past 3 days, but two of those days are weekend days, when there's less movement overall." "The Note's weekend slide has been a more modest 0.33 (compared to 0.73 for the weekdays), while State Democracy has only climbed an average of only 0.17 on Saturdays and Sundays, moving much more — an average of 0.73 (the mirror image of The Note, coincidentally) — on weekdays."

Check out how brilliantly prescient he is in this next paragraph: "I think we have a sound theoretical reason for treating weekends differently from weekdays, and so based on our weekday numbers, I'd expect us to dip to 29% tomorrow or Tuesday (tough to tell exactly because the webby folks are apparently rounding off all percentages) and State Democracy to move up to 21% by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. Of course, that assumes that these trends will continue in a roughly linear fashion, which may not be the case. I'd expect that absent external stimulus, the likelihood of shifts in voting when polls are open for an extended period of time becomes smaller over time, though there may be a late surge effect toward the end. There may be something in the literature on this, though there's nothing that comes to mind right off. It's possible that some sort of half-baked analogy to presidential primaries is possible, but I'd need to think on that for a while."

"Here's the short version: at the rate things are going, State Democracy should move into the lead on May 21 — only 2 days before the polls close … . It's likely to be a close thing either way, so a few votes here or there might really make a difference."

For those of you who are more visual, here is the sad tale graphically rendered. LINK

While The Note has been coasting (and more worried about candidate debates and Karl Rove trips), State Democracy has been engaged in a savagely aggressive campaign for votes.

So, again, we are asking for your vote (just like they do in West Texas).

Please, if you haven't voted yet, Vote The Note. And if you HAVE voted, get at least 2 other people to vote for us. PLEASE CLICK HERE TO CAST YOUR VOTE

If not for us, do it for the Googling monkeys. LINK

Thank you for your support.

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

Over the weekend, the New York Times ' Elisabeth Bumiller wrote two of the finest pool reports in American history. LINK

And today she has more string for both her Roland Betts biography and the forward she is writing for the paperback edition of Van Natta's golf book. LINK

The Washington Post 's Mike Allen writes about the president's good walk spoiled. LINK