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Normally, The Note laughs at the illogic: it can't be true that BOTH parties are worse.

Based on some serious regression analysis, however, we feel confident in saying that, right this very moment, the Democrats are having more circular firing-squad problems than the Republicans are.

Even with a new national poll showing yet again how popular the president is and how well the Republican brand is doing; even with some serious fundraising gaps; even without control of any branch of government; even with Senator Daschle at least a bit under siege; and even with their presidential candidates afussin' and afeudin' — even with all that, optimistic Democrats say that this will all sort itself out when they eventually have a battle-tested nominee who will be able to go mano-a-(wo)mano with President Bush on the economy and security.

Late today, The Note plans to look out an office window overlooking DeSales Street and see the arrival of the last Democrat to beat an incumbent Republican president, under conditions pretty similar to what is described above (although Democrats somehow controlled Congress back in '92, and Chairman Brown and Madam Harriman had schemes to keep the party on track).

At the Mayflower Hotel today, Bill Clinton will speak to a group of Democratic Leadership Councilors, and, to quote Julie Newmar LINK , the timing couldn't be more symbolically purr-fect.

The DLC has long believed that the party has to have a fight with itself before it can effectively fight the Republican party. FromCo. doesn't relish intraparty battles, but sees them as essential to keep the leftist interest group mentality from producing unelectable nominees.

Nomination fights that strengthen a candidate's general election chances are what every party hopes for, but some Democrats are getting edgy about the nature of the already-engaged battle.

The AP's Ron Fournier has Jeff Link, Kathy Sullivan, and other Democrats hoping and wishing that their presidential candidates will save their fire for President Bush, and not waste it on each other. LINK

And the Boston Globe 's Robert Kuttner does his own fretting over the candidates' continued internal squabbling and ineffectual jockeying for position. LINK

On the other hand, and/but we can't say it will last, the noisiest fight between Democratic presidential candidates just got several decibels lower.

John Kerry stopped by a USA Today /Gannett ed board/reporters meeting yesterday, and declared a truce.

"Massachusetts Senator John Kerry repeatedly declined Tuesday to criticize rival Howard Dean and said he would focus instead on President Bush. The two New Englanders are competing fiercely for the support of liberals across the country and for votes in New Hampshire's leadoff primary." LINK

"Dean, the pugnacious former governor of Vermont, has accused Kerry for months of trying to appear both for and against the Iraq war. The Kerry campaign, after largely ignoring Dean, issued a statement two weeks ago questioning Dean's fitness to be commander in chief. The rivalry climaxed in defensive, combative performances by both men at a debate May 3."

"Asked Tuesday how he would deal with continuing challenges from Dean, Kerry said he would not get sucked into squabbling. 'I intend to be giving a series of speeches in the next days talking about the larger issues in this campaign,' Kerry told USA TODAY and Gannett News Service reporters. 'I'm just not going to go there. Period. That's how I'm going to deal with it."'

"Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, voted to authorize force against Iraq but has been critical of Bush's diplomacy before and after the war. He calls himself '100% consistent' and usually has not responded directly to Dean's contention that he is trying to 'have it both ways.' But after Time.com quoted Dean as saying 'we won't always have the strongest military,' Kerry called the comment 'quite extraordinary,' and an aide said it raised 'serious questions' about Dean's capability to be commander in chief."

"Kerry handled the issue differently Tuesday. Asked what would happen if Democrats nominated a former governor without military experience, he replied, 'I'm going to leave it to primary voters to make their own judgments."'

The (temporary) truce comes as Democrats get more and more data every day about how tough it is going to be for any of these candidates to beat George W. Bush.

Nothing about President Bush's cosmic relationship with his fellow citizens in the new New York Times /Viacom poll will surprise you, including the lead: "Americans have persistent reservations about the tax cuts that are the centerpiece of President Bush's postwar agenda, but those concerns have not hurt Mr. Bush, who continues to ride a huge wave of support … " LINK

Maybe something will cause these impressive POTUS numbers to get more Dowdy, but not yet.

Given that our average Note reader knows more of the names of the nine Democrats running for president than of the Seven Dwarfs or of the starters on the 1947 Cardinals, well, you readers are out of step with America:

"Beyond the economy, with nine months to go before the caucuses in Iowa, most people do not know who is running to unseat Mr. Bush. Nearly two-thirds of voters, regardless of which party they were from, were unable to name a single one of the nine Democrats seeking the party's nomination."

And look for the Republican party to keep up its aggressive efforts to stoke the Democrats vulnerabilities. The (not so) subtle, on-going effort to paint the party as weak on defense will continue right through November of 2004, and the GOP within the news cycle should have some strong words to say about the Democrats' intellectual inconsistency in being rhetorically against the Bush deficits but FOR a lot of new spending programs, including on health care.

And on the day between the Dean and Kerry health care speeches, those of you longing for an '88 flashback should go to Dick Gephardt's announcement today of support from a covey of House members, strikingly similar, it would seem, to an event he had the last time he ran for president.

The Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin reports on Gephardt's big House endorsements, writing "Former House minority leader … Gephardt … is trotting out a passel of House Democrats today who back his presidential bid, including current House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and House Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer (Md.). LINK

Here's Pelosi's pronouncement: Gephardt "'is a man of principle . . . who understands the aspirations of everyday Americans,'" while Hoyer's spokeswoman added the colleagues are "'good friends.'"

Eilperin observes the endorsements ("20 to 30 Democrats" are expected at the event) come as no surprise, given hard lobbying by Gephardt, Elmendorf, et al:

"Gephardt has been working aggressively to secure as many endorsements as possible among his House colleagues. One of his top advisers, Steve Elmendorf, has been working the Capitol's hallways for several days, and Gephardt himself visited lawmakers last week."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

On Good Morning America and later at Columbia University in New York, Dr. Howard Dean rolled out his plan to get more Americans health insurance, adding his ideas to the mix of proposals that have spurred the biggest domestic policy debate among the Democratic hopefuls to date.

Dean says his plan will cost $88 billion per year. He plans to pay for it by eliminating some, but not all, of Bush's tax cuts.

There are four key components:

# Expand the State Children Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP) to include every child and young adult under 25 up to three times the poverty level. He'll extend current programs for children to include parents up to 185% of the poverty level.

# Universal Health Benefits Program (UHBP) would be a program where individuals could buy in to a plan similar to what is currently offered to federal employees.

# Offer small businesses with less than 50 employees the chance to join the UHBP.

# Target large corporations that don't currently provide insurance for their employees by limiting tax deductions and government contracts. (We still don't quite get how this would work.)

Like Congressman Gephardt, Dean calls solving the health care problem a "moral imperative" of our time.

However, Dean asserts that Congressman Gephardt's plan is too large and cannot get through Congress, due to both its overall cost and the mandates it lays on American corporations. (Gephardt's plan would double the tax credit given to employers to cover 60 percent of premiums, requiring them to provide health insurance for their employees if they don't and passing the savings to employees if they already do.).

Dean says his more incremental approach will cost far less, insure more Americans, and not affect his plan to balance the budget. (The campaign late yesterday released a comparison chart. It claims that Dean's plan would insure 30.9 million Americans, while Gephardt's would ensure only 30.5 million).

Congressman Gephardt concedes balancing the budget would not be immediately possible under his plan, but argues his plan will also help grow the economy by reducing the burden of health care costs. And Gephardt claims Dean's plan wouldn't cover enough people, would cost more than the as-advertised price tag, and chips away at the employer-based insurance system.

The Dean campaign promises that more details about how Dean's plan will contain costs are forthcoming.

There's lots more we want to say about the policy implications of these plans, and we're particularly interested in how the various interest groups within the Democratic umbrella respond.

One Republican-backed group weighed in to the Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein:

"Dean said he would pressure employers to maintain coverage by providing preferences in federal contracting to those who do — and revoking existing tax breaks for those who don't. In a new mandate on business, he would also require that companies now providing insurance include workers' children through age 24 in plans for their employees." LINK

"Those ideas drew fire from business groups. Kate Sullivan, director of health policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Dean's threat to withdraw tax breaks from firms that don't insure their workers amounts to a mandate on employers for coverage. Opposition to such a requirement helped sink Clinton's health care plan."

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz kicks off his coverage of Howard Dean's health care plan kick-off thusly:

"Former Vermont governor Howard Dean today unveiled a plan to provide near-universal access to health care coverage by targeting federal assistance to those without insurance and penalizing large, profitable corporations that fail to offer it, saying the United States 'has fallen 50 years behind the social standards of what we consider the civilized world.'" LINK

The Boston Globe 's Susan Milligan describes Dean as a "physician who hopes to make health care a central focus of his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination". LINK

Despite the massive attention Dean's anti-war stance brought him, Milligan suggests health care is where it's at for the candidate:

"Dean began his campaign last year with plans to make health care his signature issue. But he soon became defined by his opposition to the war in Iraq, and a rival candidate, Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, the former House minority leader, was the first to lay out a specific health care plan. Senator John F. Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, plans to disclose his tomorrow."

"Dean's announcement yesterday brought his campaign back to its roots and may test the depth of the support for the upstart candidate, who is tied with Kerry in opinion polls in New Hampshire, the site of the first presidential primary."

Milligan anticipates Senator Kerry's forthcoming plan, writing:

"Asked whether he deliberately unveiled his plan to preempt Kerry, Dean said he had planned to offer his proposal March 10, but delayed it because of the war."

As for Representative Gephardt, he "released yesterday a detailed critique of Dean's plan, which he said undermines employer-based health insurance and does not do enough for low- and middle-income families."

"'We can no longer afford incremental steps or policies that nibble around the edges. To effectively resolve this crisis, we must treat the whole problem and not the symptoms,' Gephardt said."

"Dean, who had called Gephardt's plan 'pie-in-the-sky' when it was announced, said he welcomed the congressman's contribution to the debate."

At this point, it's not clear who's trying to pre-empt whom.

As Noted above, Senator Kerry ed-boarded with the Des Moines Register , Gannett News Service and USA Today Tuesday, and that got him marquee position on the front page of USA Today , thus somewhat pre-empting Dr. Dean's pre-emption. LINK

Dean's inclusion of an opt-in to the federal employee health insurance system appears to have convinced Senator Kerry that he needed to, in the words of the USA Today 's Page, take "credit" for the idea.

"'Kerry would start a "premium rebate" pool for workers by taking high-cost insurance cases — those that run $50,000 or more — out of the private health-care system and having the federal government pick up 75 percent of the tab. That would be in exchange for an agreement that employers' savings be passed on to employees in the form of reduced premiums,'" The Des Moines Register 's Norman reports. LINK

"Kerry said that in his plan he would allow Americans access as employees or individuals to the same high-quality health-care plans offered to members of Congress, a concept similar to one offered by Dean, with a tax credit involved. Kerry said he raised that idea at a recent debate among Democratic candidates in South Carolina and "at that time nobody else had articulated a similar approach.'"

"Kerry said his proposal would cost 'less than $100 billion' although he did not yet have firm numbers, and he said he would pay for it by rolling back some of the 2001 tax cuts Bush signed into law."

"Kerry said he also will propose making it less expensive to buy prescription drugs."

Kerry is also stressing cost controls.

USA Today has a handy chart: LINK

For whatever reasons, Dean's plan gets only a few graphs woven into the Times ' front-page poll story.

Deborah Orin gets a few paragraphs to write up the plan in the New York Post . LINK

And Slate's Will Saletan has a nice broad look at the intermix of policy and politics. LINK

The New Republic's Jonathan Cohn gives a mostly favorable review to Dr. Dean's health care plan. LINK

Cohn says the lower cost (compared to Congressman Gephardt's plan) of Dean's proposal without limiting how many Americans can get covered is the candidate's best selling point.

With Gary Hart's decision to opt out of the presidential race, The Note was concerned that blogs would lose their place of prominence in the Invisible Primary.

Thankfully, The New Republic is making sure that is not the case. LINK

TNR has launched a blog devoted to the Democratic primary complete with a candidate grading system.

At the end of each month, the candidate with the best grades will be declared the winner for that month.

EDWARDS

In what will likely be just the first blast across the bow by Republican-backed interest groups in the presidential election cycle, the Virginia-based Americans For Job Security has taken out full-page ads in Raleigh, North Carolina, Manchester, New Hampshire and Des Moines, Iowa newspapers accusing Senator John Edwards of favoring the interests of trial attorneys over common sense and insurance cost containment.

The ads drew and immediate response from Senator Edwards's campaign. In fact, that's how The Note found out about it!

Spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri said in a statement: "'It's not surprising that 'Americans for Job Security,' a front for the insurance industry with White House ties, has made Senator John Edwards the subject of the first attack ads in this campaign. As co-author of the Patients' Bill of Rights, Senator Edwards has stood in the way of Republicans passing the insurance industry's wish list. "

Americans For Job Security, which has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars each cycle since 1996, denies being a front group for anyone but it refuses to disclose its donors.

"If we did that, we'd allow politicians like Senator Edwards to change the subject," said Mike Dubke, AJS's President.

He said the newspaper ads were designed to get attention in Iowa and Des Moines — and get national political reporters on the telephone asking for more information.

Under current campaign finance law, Dubke can't run television or radio ads (unless paid for with disclosable hard money) if they reference a federal candidate in a non-neutral context. Hence, the newspaper route.

John Wagner of the Raleigh News & Observer manages to work the words "whacks" and "John Edwards" into his lead about the story today. LINK

"A conservative pro-business group is taking whacks at U.S. Senator John Edwards, both at home in North Carolina and on the presidential campaign trail.

"Americans for Job Security sponsored a full-page ad in The News & Observer on Tuesday suggesting the politically ambitious Edwards had sold out to trial lawyers and forgotten the people he's supposed be serving back home."

"The group, with headquarters in Alexandria, Va., is also paying for billboards near the largest airports in Iowa, home of the first presidential caucuses, and New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary."

"Slated to run for several months, the billboards will portray Edwards as an obstacle to tort reform. One that's being planned shows pictures of donkeys and Edwards, with the following text: 'A Montana man named Jack Ass sued the MTV show 'Jackass' for $10 million saying they plagiarized his name. … Next time you see him, tell John Edwards lawsuits like this are asinine.'"

Writing for the Charlotte Observer, Tim Funk also has a look at the launch of attack ads and writes up a description of the television ad planned to air in North Carolina. LINK

"The TV ad, a print version of which ran in Tuesday's edition of the Raleigh News & Observer, also criticizes Edwards for buying a $3.8 million house in Georgetown, voting with liberal Sens. Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton, and opposing President Bush's proposed tax cuts."

"'This is who John Edwards promised he'd fight for,' reads the caption below a picture of 'Ordinary People.'"

"'This is who he fought for instead … and what they gave him in return,' reads the caption under a picture of 'Wealthy Trial Lawyers' and cash representing $4.1 million in campaign funds.

"This is the second business group that has begun mounting a campaign against Edwards. The American Tort Reform Association, co-founded by the American Medical Association, plans to launch an anti-Edwards Web site later this month."

DEAN

Martin Sheen's support for Dean makes Liz Smith's column. LINK

"He is not afraid to lose," is what the Actor is quoted saying about the Doctor, and we'll let the Kerry campaign write its own jokes.

GRAHAM

Maureen Dowd gives Bob Graham another favorable column mention, as a prelude to her (inevitable/eventual) turning on him savagely. LINK

Reuters reports that Senator Graham "said Tuesday that the deadly bombing attacks in Saudi Arabia showed that Al Qaeda had rebuilt itself while the Bush administration was preoccupied with its pursuit of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein." LINK

A Miami Herald columnist urges Senator Graham to learn how to give a better speech. LINK

LIEBERMAN

The AP's gal-about-town Nedra Pickler lead her account of Joe Lieberman's young Dems event in Manhattan with the scattered boos and jeering over his support for the war in Iraq. LINK

There was some cheering too, we would Note, and although this WAS a discordant moment, Lieberman overall gave a pretty boffo perf, and was quite well received, by the young, boozy group.

Pickler has this color paragraph: "Tuesday's event was sponsored by the New York chapter of Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century and was held at the Manhattan nightclub Coda. A waiting line to enter stretched around the block as bouncers dressed all in black checked identification at the door. Inside, the young politicos sipped Chianti and imported beer while waiting for Lieberman to take the stage."

What she failed to report was that New York city council speaker Gifford Miller (featured today in a fabulous New York Post phony photo deriving from a bus flap) introduced Lieberman and rocked.

When he wasn't swigging from a beer bottle right on stage, Miller was introducing Lieberman and reading audience questions with masterful comic timing.

Sadly, our back-of-the-envelope sense is that Miller won't be old enough by 2004/5 to be Lieberman's running mate, because the regional and age balance he would bring to the ticket would be quite a plus.

After having breakfast with the AFL-CIO's John Sweeney, David Lightman is quite confident that Joe Lieberman will not be the labor group's endorsee. LINK

GEPHARDT

With excitement building over WMUR's upcoming John Edwards town meeting, the station profiles Dick Gephardt. LINK

KERRY

John Harwood's Wall Street Journal column on President Bush's AIDS push has this:

"A successful AIDS initiative will steepen the Democrats' climb to defeat Mr. Bush next year. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who earlier sponsored unsuccessful relief legislation with Mr. Frist, attacked Mr. Bush early this year for ignoring AIDS in deference to 'political calculation and conservative dogma.' Now Mr. Bush has largely silenced that line of attack. In the recent Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina, the AIDS crisis wasn't mentioned by Mr. Kerry or anybody else."

The Boston Globe reports that Senator John Kerry pocketed about $100,000 and swallowed steak frites at a Monday fundraiser for 70 at Olives, hosted by chef Todd English and ex-wife Olivia English, and attended by songbird supporter Stephen Stills. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Scot Lehigh slaps John Kerry with a harsh scouting card, giving him good marks for accessibility, despite occasionally "ornate oratory," and for his Vietnam credentials, but bad ones for his murky use of the war creds, his "innate caution," and his inability to boldly break away from the pack. LINK

Lehigh's advice is to (surprise!) follow Clinton's model, when, as a candidate in '92, the man from Hope "wove his experience and policy notions into a cogent campaign message."

Lehigh finishes: "For a candidate who has seen his crisp start give way to clumsy stumbles and mediocre reviews, that's the path back to momentum."

KUCINICH

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Tom Diemer has some bad research news for Representative Kucinich, including commentary from the Club for Growth's Stephen Moore. LINK

Diemer reports that Kucinich, "who has harshly criticized an economic plan reducing the taxes investors pay on dividends, co-sponsored a similar bill in 1998 when the economy was vibrant and the federal budget was in surplus."

Kucinich "said yesterday that he wouldn't vote for his own bill if it were up for consideration now."

SHARPTON

The Reverend Al Sharpton is number three … .

… .

… . in a poll of who New Yorkers hate the most. LINK

IOWA

The AP's Mike Glover profiles the role and influence of Senator Tom Harkin, "one of the last of the unabashed liberals, a Democratic stalwart with little patience for party regulars cowed by President Bush's soaring poll numbers" LINK

Describing Harkin's "Hear It From the Heartland" candidate forums, Glover writes that "Harkin, 63, won't be going along just for the ride. He has played a prominent part in past Democratic races for the presidency, and he is determined to shape the debate in this election."

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Poli-Sci in the Valley News:

"The New Hampshire primary has a 'substantially greater' impact on defining the Democratic field of candidates compared with corresponding Republican races, according to a new study of the first-in-the nation presidential contest." LINK

"And the Granite State often plays an especially important role in boosting — or crippling — the candidacies of Southern Democrats, even if they don't win the bellwether primary, the statistical analysis of New Hampshire primaries since 1976 determined."

In unique-political-culture-of-New Hampshire news: the Republican Senate marked up a parental notification bill and replaced it with provisions requiring that minor women wanting abortions simply be given information. LINK

Foster's Daily Democrat editorializes in favor of "Right-To-Work" rules. LINK

Next year's New Hampshire Democratic Party 100 Club dinner will take place 72 hours before the primary. LINK

ABC 2004: CREEP:

The New York Times ' Phil Shenon promotes Karl Rove to Ken Mehlman's job, in a piece about whether Asa Hutchinson will leave the Department of Homeland Security to run for senate. LINK

The AP reports that the GAO "won't look at the costs of President Bush's "Top Gun" flight to an aircraft carrier to declare an end to major fighting in Iraq." LINK

The Hartford Courant's Jim Shea envisions a morning briefing in the Oval Office in this parody he wrote for today's Caucus column. LINK >

The AP's Tom Raum reports, "Standing in a driving rainstorm, President Bush surveyed the devastation from a huge tornado Tuesday and pledged that "we're going to rebuild this city." He promised to do what he could to cut through federal paperwork to get the job done." LINK

The San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci reports, "Democratic Secretary of State Kevin Shelley said he'll sponsor a bill allowing Republicans to place President Bush's name on the state's November 2004 ballot — despite the GOP decision to schedule its national presidential nominating convention after California's legal filing deadline for candidates." LINK

"The unusually cooperative bipartisan gesture by Shelley will allow the president to avoid the embarrassment of being a write-in candidate in the nation's most populous state — where the election code mandates candidates must be certified 68 days before voters go to the polls."

Big Casino budget politics

The Boston Globe 's Ann E. Kornblut ominously writes: "Determined to bolster public confidence in the economy, President Bush is pursuing a risky strategy of traveling the country to highlight the same bad economic news that opponents blame on him while promising that his tax cut will flood the market with a million jobs. " LINK

Kornblut says Republican strategists are hoping the gamble pays off, that Americans find the president reassuring, and the economy bounces back by 2004 as predicted, yet offers this comparison:

"But even with the dash of Reaganesque optimism the younger Bush invariably brings to his speeches, the White House is drawing attention to a bad economy in a way that presidents have avoided since Jimmy Carter's politically fatal malaise speech."

In addition to following her presidential history, Kornblut also can count:

"In a five-day swing around the country that ended yesterday, Bush said the word job more than a dozen times at every stop, drawing attention to the rising unemployment number to show that he is trying to cure the sagging economy."

Kornblut, Noting economists and politicians disagree about the tax cut but agree that more jobs will likely be created in the next year no matter what, allows a whole host of folks to weigh in, some with a rather optimistic assessment (Kevin Hassett of AEI: "'[Bush has] got a better than even chance of having his promise come true even if the dividend tax cut doesn't happen'"), others, not so positive:

"'Sadly, to this point, the president doesn't seem to be held accountable for any of his broken promises. Presumably that will change as we move closer to the election and Democrats — in a modulated, convincing way — draw more attention his record,' said Jim Jordan, campaign manager for Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts. 'There's no economist in the world who agrees with him. They are simply making numbers up."'

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman reports that, with the tax cut debate beginning in the Senate, the tenacious Administration has come up with another fierce effort to accomplish their goals. LINK

"As the Senate begins debate on taxes today, the White House and its Senate allies have resurrected a plan to phase in a sharp reduction in the tax on dividends and then to undo the tax cuts after five years — a proposal they believe could break the deadlock over the linchpin of President Bush's economic growth plan."

"In its dogged pursuit of the dividend tax cut, the White House is pushing a temporary version that even some Republicans openly deride as bizarre and economically suspect. Under the proposal, the elimination of what has been called double taxation of dividends would be phased in — one-half next year, 75 percent in 2005 and 100 percent in 2006-07. Then, the current dividend tax rate would suddenly reappear."

Weisman reports that even some allies are up in arms against it:

"'In a rare display of GOP discord, Kevin Hassett, an American Enterprise Institute economist with close administration ties, posted a Web site editorial calling the emerging Senate plan 'one of the most patently absurd tax policies ever proposed.' The plan would discourage companies from offering dividends over the next two years, he said, and could harm the economy Bush wants to help.'"

And the vote counting also is complicated:

"White House aides say they believe they will ultimately win the critical votes of two Senate Democrats, Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.). That would enable them to overcome the opposition of four Republicans: Olympia J. Snowe (Maine), Lincoln D. Chafee (R.I.), John McCain (Ariz.) and George V. Voinovich (Ohio). With the vote of Democratic Senator Zell Miller (Ga.) already guaranteed, Vice President Cheney could then cast the tie-breaking vote for passage."

"Nelson spokesman David DiMartino confirmed that the Nebraska Democrat 'probably' would vote for the Bush dividend plan if the White House agrees to adding significant aid for cash-strapped state governments."

"But Lincoln said she did not believe the White House could possibly accommodate her demands for state aid, tax relief for poor families and school construction financing while paying for the president's dividend plan. She also disparaged the proposed phase-in, phase-out approach as undermining 'the whole premise' of the dividend plan, because it would undercut any short-term economic boost while offering businesses a tax incentive so fleeting and unreliable that they would not change their dividend policies to conform to it.

"When told that White House officials expect to win her vote, Lincoln replied: 'Those are some pretty big assumptions they have.'"

"Democrats — and some Republicans — yesterday derided the White House's resurgent dividend tax cut push as gimmickry designed to mask the plan's true cost to the Treasury. If, as the White House openly hopes, Congress extends the dividend plan before it dies, the 10-year cost would balloon from $120 billion to $375 billion, just shy of the $396 billion cost of the president's original plan, according to the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities."

Given Weisman's tone throughout, one might almost call his last section ironic, or, at least, cheeky:

"But Bush, stumping for his tax cut yesterday in Indianapolis, said he would not raise taxes to balance the budget. The budget deficit must be addressed by holding down spending, he said."

"'There needs to be fiscal sanity in Washington,' Bush told about 7,500 seniors, military personnel and supporters."

Knight Ridder's Ken Moritsugu reports that "Democrats berated Harvard University professor Gregory Mankiw with tough questions at his nomination hearing Tuesday, using passages from his own economics textbook to attack Bush's proposed tax cut." LINK

"Despite the attacks, Senate approval of Mankiw's nomination is expected. The harshest questions came from [Senator Paul] Sarbanes [D-MD,] and Senator Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., but Schumer rushed out of the room afterward to greet Mankiw and express support for him."

The Associated Press' Martin Crutsinger writes that senators "read portions of Mankiw's introductory textbook, 'Principles of Economics,' where he warned that rising budget deficits could drive up interest rates and thus harm long-term growth prospects. Mankiw also took issue with the view espoused by Arthur Laffer and other supply-side economists during the Reagan administration that tax cuts, by generating extra growth, can pay for themselves." LINK

"Mankiw stood by the arguments in his textbook, noting at one point that it would be hard to disown something he had written for a new edition that came out just two months ago. But he said those views were not at variance with his support for the Bush administration's economic policies."

The Associated Press' Jonathan D. Salant reports that the head of the GAO, Clinton appointee David Walker, is warning Congress "to take a longer-term look at tax cut and spending decisions in an era of federal budget deficits." LINK

"Without changes in taxes or spending, U.S. taxpayers in 2050 will be spending more money to pay interest on the national debt than on everything else the government does — from defense to transportation — except for Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, according to GAO projections.

The New York Times ' David Firestone does the debt ceiling boogie. LINK

The Washington Post 's editorial page thinks the administration's "economic rationales" for tax cuts are, using Secretary Snow's word for the economy, "soggy." LINK

The Economy

The Wall Street Journal on A2 chronicles Secretary Snow's second-day attempts to put the dollar genie back in the toothpaste tube.

Judicial confirmation battles

Norman Ornstein is to the filibuster what Trista is to Ryan, if Norm's New York Times op-ed piece is taken at face value. LINK and LINK

BCRA:

"Arguing that Congress knows best how money affects politics, the Bush administration sought on Tuesday to place the new law regulating campaign finance before the Supreme Court," the AP's Anne Gearan reports. LINK

"The high court must address procedural questions about the format and content of those appeals before considering them. For that reason, the appeals are not yet formally entered on the court's docket, and there is no word on when the justices might hear the case."

"The justices have finished hearing cases for this court term and are expected to wrap up work by July. That means the campaign finance case will probably have to wait until September or October, although the high court could hold an extremely rare summer session to consider it."

Politics:

The New York Times ' Al Baker reports that Governor Pataki is turning to gambling in the face of New York City's budget woes, proposing new video lottery terminals, and offering the sale of city assets. LINK

The New York Times ' Boldface Names column grilled a friendly Bill Clinton about his reading material, despite an antsy Secret Service agent and the potentially awkward topic of the Robert Dallek book. LINK

We love Nick "Lemon" Lemann, and so does the New York Times , which prints yet another profile of the accomplished writer/editor/dean-in-waiting, and his plans for Columbia's J school. LINK

"Mr. Lemann, 48, an affable man with abundant patience and self-confidence, seems unconcerned about stepping into the ferment. He has a clear idea of what he thinks the school should look like, and is eager to try it."

We still wonder who will get Nick's old job … ..

The Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei writes that the House will allow the ban on semiautomatic weapons to expire, offering a major victory to the NRA and allowing President Bush to remain (possibly) unensnared in a controversial issue. LINK

Al Kamen Notes the number of photos of Bill Clinton, often with the author, in Sid Blumenthal's book. LINK

Can you hear me now? Roll Call 's Ed Henry has a fascinating coda to this past Sunday's New York Times Bill Frist profile.

"In a stunning scene played out at the end of a long profile of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) in Sunday's New York Times Magazine, the Tennessean is depicted sandbagging one of his colleagues."

"Frist places a call to an unnamed freshman Senator and decides to put the lawmaker on speakerphone. This allows writer David Grann to sit in on the call without Frist letting the freshman know that his words are being documented by a journalist."

After doing some reporting, Henry rightly determines the unknowing freshman senator on the other end of the phone to be Saxby Chambliss.

"Chambliss proceeded to hit the Majority Leader up for a favor because a 'major Republican donor' wants an ambassadorship to an overseas economic development organization. 'I don't even know what the hell it is,' Chambliss admits, 'but he wants it.'"

After a moment of contemplation, Frist responds, 'He has lots of dollar figures down there?'"

"'That's exactly right,' says Chambliss. 'And he did raise a chunk of money for me.'"

"'All right,' Frist is quoted as saying. 'You're a good man.'"

Mr. Henry caught up with Senator Chambliss to find out how he felt about the majority leader putting him in this position.

"Chambliss said he has spoken to Frist since reading the magazine profile, but stressed that he's not angry. 'Bill and I are friends, and I didn't think there was anything wrong with the article,' he said."

"Not even the part where it seems that financial support is driving a nomination? No, Chambliss said, noting that many, many ambassadorships go to big donors who support whichever party controls the White House, a practice he doesn't necessarily object to. "

Senator Frist has not sent the donor's name on to the White House for an ambassadorship.

"Dick Morris, a political commentator and analyst who was a key political adviser to President Clinton, has made the state's top 10 list of delinquent taxpayers." the Associated Press reports. "The Redding resident owes $257,624 in state income taxes, according to the state Department of Revenue Services."

"Morris issued a statement Tuesday afternoon denying that he owed 'a significant amount in back taxes.'" LINK

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that Mississippi Governor Ronnie Musgrove responded to Haley Barbour's Head Start comments by saying that Barbour has "spent too much time in Washington. Folks here in Mississippi don't appreciate talk like that." LINK

Roll Call reports a shakeup at the NRCC.

"In an unexpected move, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) has decided to replace two top staffers at his committee, surprising GOP political operatives who follow its operations closely. "

"Donna Anderson, deputy executive director for the NRCC, and Joe Rachinsky, the NRCC's finance director, both resigned on Monday, according to Republican sources."

"Anderson's departure, in particular, caught many Republicans off guard. GOP insiders said Reynolds and Sally Vastola, the NRCC's executive director and a longtime Reynolds aide, informed Anderson of their decision to move in another direction early this week."

"'Sally is making some changes,' said a top House Republican aide of the turnover at the campaign committee. 'She wants her own people over there.'"

The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove reports that the beleaguered "Israel at 55" celebration has been postponed until December. LINK

Lloyd Grove also suggests Dick Cheney's morning motorcade to work is a bit noisy. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

David Broder has a must-read kiss and a slap for almost-famous (outside Texas, the Beltway, the Note) kingmaker Karl Rove, who, Broder warns, with two biographies and the recent "characteristically insightful New Yorker profile by Nicholas Lemann," is in danger of getting a touch too gilded and a touch too much credit for a presidential adviser. LINK

Broder admits his own fondness for Rove, waxing nostalgic and poetic …

"Let me disclose my own bias in this matter. I like Karl Rove. In the days when he was operating from Austin, we had many long and rewarding conversations. I have eaten quail at his table and admired the splendid Hill Country landscape from the porch of the cabin Karl and his wife, Darby, found miles away and had carted to its present site on their land."

… And also credits Rove for an early assessment of the power of the Republican South.

Yet, Broder states that the president is still the president, and if Rove's power becomes too palpable to the general populace (as opposed to the pundits, journalists, and insiders who glorify him already), he could find himself, well, out of office.

Great column, if a touch apocalyptic.

The Washington Post 's Mike Allen was on hand in Indiana and Missouri yesterday to watch President Bush renew his pledge to fight "'a relentless campaign against global terrorism,'" as well as his pledge to support Mitch Daniels' as-yet-unannounced bid for the Indiana governorship. LINK

As for the Daniels plug, Allen is direct:

"Bush's appearance constituted an unofficial campaign kickoff for Bush's budget director, Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., who plans to leave the White House next month to run for Indiana governor next year."

"Daniels has not made an announcement, since he remains on the federal payroll. But Bush dropped a broad hint this morning as he saluted 'my man Mitch,' sitting a row behind Bayh. 'Mitch has been a good friend, a close adviser, and I'm going to miss him," Bush said. 'Washington's loss, however, will be the gain for the people of Indiana. He's a fine fellow.'"

Bush also offered his prayers for tornado victims in Missouri while touring some of the damage.

The New York Times ' Eric Schmitt sounds positively DeFrankian in his jocular recounting of what The Note calls the "Dick and Don Show," although "one Hudson Institute official called (it) the 'Cheney-Rumsfeld routine … '" LINK

The Texas Tangle

Latest developments:

--50 Democrats remain in Oklahoma, where most law enforcement officials are bemused. (3 returned to Austin). They're calling themselves the "Killer D's."

--Republicans are in Austin. And on television, calling Democrats "Chicken D's." (That name is an historical evocation).

--Democrats are almost as furious at the fallout from walkout as they are from its original impetus.

--One Democratic representative, Craig Eiland, told the Associated Press that Texas Rangers arrived at a neonatal intensive care unit where his twin babies were recovering. The Rangers later showed up at Eiland's home.

-- A great picture: LINK

-- Sometime yesterday, the Republican Party of Texas paid for radio ads with this script : "Stop what you are doing. The following is an important announcement. On May 12, 2003, State Representative (Patrick Rose, Chuck Hopson, John Mabry) failed to execute his responsibilities on legislative business. Subsequently, Representative __________ has taken flight. The result? Texas State Troopers have been ordered to find Representative ________ and arrest him. If you have any information on the whereabouts of ________, please call the Department of Public Safety at (512) 424-2080."

-- The Texas Democratic Party called the ads dangerous: "This is simply irresponsible and a new low in Texas politics," said Molly Beth Malcolm, the Party Chair. "By tying up phone lines or sending troopers off on red herrings, the Republican Party's political game could delay a trooper's arrival at an auto accident or allow some kidnapper to escape with a child."

--And U.S. Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas), an author of the nationwide AMBER alert system, released a very angry statement:

"At the Governor's request, the Texas Department of Public Safety has continued to harass Texas House Members and belittle a program designed to protect abducted children. A bulletin was posted Monday on the Texas Department of Public Safety web site — the same one used to alert citizens to abducted children — asking for help in locating the Texas lawmakers. It is inexcusable that the Governor would abuse the Amber Alert System."

Here's the spin:

Republican argument: by abdicating their responsibility, the Democrats endanger the very programs they hold dear and will be held responsible if the state budget collapses.

Democratic argument: this is not a legislative question; it's a political one. Tom Delay should not manipulate Texas elections to suit his whims. This never happened when George W. Bush was Governor!

The Bigger Picture:

In Roll Call , Norm Ornstein sees the Supreme Court eventually settling the case. And he thinks that's a good thing: "I hope the Court uses this opportunity to rethink its whole approach to redistricting. As practiced in recent decades, it has done more damage than anything else to comity, bipartisanship and moderation in Congress."

Articles:

How the cross-border dash played out: LINK

"Tuesday, Craddick said the wayward 51 were tracked by federal authorities who secured the tail number identification of former Speaker Pete Laney's aircraft. He said Laney's aircraft shuttled many of the legislators out of Austin." LINK

"Laney said U.S. Customs tracked him on his flight out of Texas on Sunday evening, 'But that plane contained no one besides me. I did not bring anybody with me.'"

Tom DeLay wants the federal government to bring back the Democrats. LINK

"Meanwhile, two Houston-area Democratic U.S. House members have been in Houston the past two days to assault the Republican redistricting plan and criticize DeLay and Craddick for pushing it." LINK

"U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee held a candlelit vigil Monday night while U.S. Rep. Chris Bell conducted a news conference Tuesday. Both of their districts would change substantially under the GOP plan. Bell would be forced out of office as his district moved to South Texas, and Jackson Lee would lose much of her district's historical territory."