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We are speaking, of course, about this Wednesday's expected trip of Karl Rove for a day of events in New Hampshire.

Saturday's Democratic presidential campaign debate is still getting a lot of attention, and leaves any sensible person truly not knowing who the Democratic nominee is going to be, or, even, who the frontrunners for the nomination are.

But it seems all but certain that George W. Bush will be both HIS party's nominee AND the frontrunner for the Big Enchilda of the White House, and, as even the French know, that has at least a little something to do with Karl Rove.

On Wednesday, Rove is expected in the Granite State to speak at the St. Anselm College's Institute of Politics, with a "Politics and Eggs Forum," and then a New Hampshire Republican Party "Grassroots Connection" workshop that is (for now) closed to the media.

A lot of national and New Hampshire press will hang on his every word.

Which is not to say that the Democrats who want to replace Bush and Rove won't be busy seeking attention this week, pushing off the debate and trying (still) to make the bad economy a big issue.

Busy, busy, busy:

The candidate who got the best debate reviews hands down — Senator Lieberman — has two campaign stops in Cleveland today.

Representative Kucinich is in Davenport, Iowa. Reverend Al Sharpton is also there. The two are speaking to a state letter carriers convention.

Senator Kerry is in Illinois.

Tomorrow, Howard Dean chats with senior citizens in Hanover, New Hampshire, and then stops at Dartmouth.

And Senator Bob Graham announces his presidential candidacy from the Shula Hotel in Miami Lakes. His schedule for the rest of the week is TBD, but we're told it probably will include a trip to Iowa (May 9 and 10) and New Hampshire, as well as a tour of his own state.

On Wednesday, Senator Lieberman will give what's billed as a "major" energy policy speech, and the first of several topical addresses. Dean travels to Concord.

On Thursday, Senator Kerry meets students at Manchester Central High in New Hampshire and then does some taping at WMUR. Friday night, Senator Kerry attends the Story County Big Band Swing Fling.

Hadassah Lieberman is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina.

On Saturday, presidential candidates TBD are slated to attend the Polk County Democratic Party Dinner in Des Moines.

Senator Edwards keynotes the Human Rights Campaign dinner that evening.

Most of the president's re-election effort, as we have said before, will take place (read: "is taking place") below the radar, with the Democrats, for their good and their ill, getting much more attention, because they have a contested nomination fight.

But the president, qua president, will get a lot of ink and television time, of course.

As will, naturally, Mr. Rove.

In fact, Dean Nick Lemann has a longish New Yorker story on Mr. Rove, who seems to have decided that Lemann was a worthy intellectual sparring partner during the "three long interviews … in his office in the West Wing … "

It's a fair, balanced look at Rove's thinking, practice, and life, we think; The Note will be interested to see if Lemann gets a long e-mail or letter from Rove correcting any errors of fact, judgment, or interpretation.

As many strengths as Lemann has, writing this kind of profile might be the thing at which he is third best (parenting and making The Note feel dumb are easy Numbers 1 and 2).

So of course it is a must-read, even though tracking down the New Yorker in DC and elsewhere is not as easy as it should be.

Too many highlights to list here, but the highlights of the highlights are:

a. more on Karl's family situation than most of you know

b. more on the College Republicans than most of you know

c. this line: "Rove has an omnipresent quality. Everybody seems to have just heard from him … "

d. this one: " … Rove's pride in his knowledge of politics is so great that he as an evidently irresistible impulse to dispute, correct, or improve upon virtually anything anybody says on the subject … ." (Never noticed that one … .)

e. the brilliant metaphor comparing the Rove Texas operation to a Hollywood studio

f. John Deardourff on the record outing Karl (Stand by for the fallout … )

g. Lemann's saying '02 was more about the Blaising 72-Hour Task Force than a referendum on terrorism

h. Karl's aversion to criticism

i. this: "One of Rove's signature moves is to be unusually nonconfrontational, for a Republican, on some things — no Draconian budget cuts in programs for the poor in this Administration — so as to be better positioned to accomplish a much more important thing: fundamentally changing the social compact in order to enthrone the Republican Party as firmly as possible for as long as possible."

j. And the last, long, brilliant paragraph about the Democratic party, trial lawyers, unions, Jews, Social Security, Medicare, and public education

If you read NOTHING else Notable today, read that paragraph.

And then read the Roll Call story that says that Ed Gillespie is about to replace Marc Racicot as RNC chairman (once Karl signs off), and Marc Z. Barabak on the Bush campaign, and then you will have finished your vital Bush campaign reading for a moment. See "CREEP" below for all that.

Okay, the debate. Below you will find the best of the first and second day stories.

Since The Note was a bit tied up helping on the debate production (those of you who watched in the hall know that even the Googling monkeys were involved as ticket takers … ), we are going to not add much of our own voices to the excellent work of others in deciding Who Won and What It All Means.

So see all of that in the next two sections.

We do need to tell you that our Notepad feature is going into hiatus for a bit after today's edition.

Although it seems to be enormously popular with our readers, and at least one campaign, many of the other campaigns find churning out 200 words a day to reach Note readers to be arduous beyond belief.

We know how you feel. Each day as we write The Note's first 200 words, we get absolutely exhausted. Somehow, we get a second wind and finish, however.

In any event, The Notepad will be back eventually, but/and make sure to read today's key post-debate entries. THE NOTEPAD

In other political news, the McCain-Feingold situation remains a big mess.

Our sense is that today the lawyers whose weekends were ruined reading through the thing will start to brief the political people (Tom Davis' apparent and typical excitability notwithstanding) no one knows what the decision means no one knows when the SCOTUS will take the case, or where the votes are there on all this

Per the AP, President "Bush travels Monday to Arkansas, home state of Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. She supported Bush on tax cuts two years ago but voted with most other senators in her party in March to halve Bush's $726 billion tax-cut proposal."

On Sunday, Senator Jeffords "criticized President Bush's tax cut proposal, saying the debate reminded him of two years ago when he decided to leave the Republican Party," the AP reported. LINK

Tomorrow, President Bush charges up the crowd at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, where he speaks to their Tax Relief coalition. Also on Thursday, President Bush gathers in the Rose Garden with foreign ministers of several countries in central Europe.

On Friday, President Bush delivers the commencement address at the University of South Carolina. Democrats, who found out about Bush's visit while trying to digest their own nine candidates, vow large protests.

And a hearty and heart-felt thanks to everyone at the University of South Carolina and everyone else in the Palmetto State who made all of us at ABC News so very welcome during our time there.

All y'all were nice, professional, savvy, and creative, and we really appreciate it.

ABC 2004: First In the Nation: The Democratic Debate:

Dan Balz of the Washington Post gives good reviews to Lieberman, and looks at the roots of Edwards v. Gephardt and Kerry v. Dean. LINK

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney gives Lieberman props as well, and looks at the candidates who are running with the "I can beat Bush" message versus those who are running with more of a nomination message. LINK

Do we even need to tell regular Note readers that Nagourney closes by pointing out that the Clintonian/'92 paradigm would be to fine a way to do both at once … .? Both Balz and Nagourney couldn't be more must-readable … ?

As Bill Safire would say, the answers are in the questions.

The Boston Globe 's Wayne Washington opens his debate analysis with: "Divisions among Democrats on display during the first presidential primary debate Saturday night delighted Republicans, who hope the party's internal squabbles on national security, health care, and taxes will hobble its nominee and bolster President Bush's chances for reelection. " LINK

Washington warns about "a year of internal sniping before [the candidates] get a chance to focus on Bush" regarding key issues such as national security, about which they have differing ideas, and the economy.

Bill Safire writes a must-read, and not just because he liked the format. LINK

The Washington Post 's Mark Leibovich sees the South Carolina debate as both a coarse cattle call and an awkward return to high school, as the nine candidates put on their game faces for the voters and grin and gripe with each other behind the scenes. LINK

Leibovich assesses the atmosphere before the debate, moderated by the "calm" George Stephanopoulos: "They are clubby and suspicious, hyper-strivers bonded by a rarefied goal and divided by basic Darwinian math" and checks out the nine (Edwards is doing smiling exercises, Kerry takes on a "Ted Baxter" stance, Gephardt is patting his temples, Kucinich is being made up, Lieberman is rushing in after the end of the Sabbath).

The weekend in South Carolina so far, Leibovich writes, has mirrored the alternating turbulence and calm on his flight down to Columbia (Lieberman and Graham exchange friendly banter, Kerry and Dean an "icy, wordless handshake") and he provides details on some highlights (the lively fish fry; Dr. Dean's Ben and Jerry's house call; the sudden visibility of supporters in the presence of media).

The Boston Globe 's Mark Jurkowitz has a nice stylish look at the logistics of doing a nine-candidate debate, and even has some meta-reporting off of C-SPAN, on which he heard one of the network's own planners make a joke about a game show favorite that both the parents and kids can remember. LINK

Newsweek's Howard Fineman says the Democratic debate may not have been the hottest political event of the weekend. LINK

"Most of Gephardt's rivals attacked the plan, with some saying it was too little, some saying it was too much. Gephardt didn't seem to mind the hot seat, as it served to highlight the fact that he is the only candidate who has laid out such a broad proposal." In Sunday's Chicago Tribune, Jeff Zeleny Notes: "Even though the discussion spanned the ideological spectrum for Democrats, there was more agreement than disagreement among the candidates on core issues like free trade, gay rights and gun control. The biggest clashes and differences were in personality, not necessarily in policy." LINK

The State's ever-hospitable Valerie Bauerlein also recaps Sunday's edition of ABCNEWS's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. LINK

Bauerlein Notes: "But even though [the Macker and Senator Lindsey Graham] interrupted each other, they apologized for it and for the most part, minded their manners — perhaps a hint of Southern influence in the national talk-show fray."

"They also conceded that the debate, while early, was healthy for the state and for the party."

Baurelein also tracks how the candidates' "zigged" and "zagged" on Saturday. LINK

Karen Tumulty calls Stephanopoulos an adept ringmaster, and while we could easily link to dozens of articles praising his performance, we'll just let his job speak for itself. LINK

The AP's Nedra Pickler reports that "Democrats emerged from their first presidential debate united on little except their desire to drive George W. Bush from the White House next year." LINK

In Sunday's edition of The State, Aaron Sheinin writes that "the state of South Carolina also was on stage at the first Democratic presidential debate," and, "[in] many cases, it didn't fare well." LINK

More from Sheinin: "A confrontation between two New Englanders — U.S. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean — was expected but mostly dissolved early."

On Sunday, Knight Ridder's Steven Thomma reported, "For half a century, the call to provide health care to all Americans has energized and united Democrats But for half an hour this weekend, leading Democrats were reminded how much the details still divide them." LINK

The Miami Herald 's Tyler Bridges says succinctly: "Graham bombed" at the state Democratic Party convention — and then improved for the debate. LINK

Slate's William Saletan saw three themes: "Mean Dean," "Smokin' Joe," and "Gephardt Gang Up". LINK

Roger Simon believes Senator Lieberman's good debate pop was well-deserved. LINK

In a statement, Gephardt challenged his opponents to come up with health care plans of their own.

"I understand that this plan will generate controversy and criticism from the status quo defenders, special interest lobbyists, and those who fear bold, innovative thinking."

ABC 2004: CREEP:

Roll Call explodes on impact:

"Former House aide turned mega-lobbyist Ed Gillespie is under serious consideration to be named the new chairman of the Republican National Committee, a move that could occur as early as this month, according to Republican sources close to the White House."

"Gillespie, 41, would replace current RNC Chairman Marc Racicot, who is expected to take a senior position overseeing President Bush's 2004 presidential campaign. "

"White House and RNC officials declined to comment on the story, but several GOP political insiders said on condition of anonymity that a final decision awaits the approval of Karl Rove, the White House's top political adviser. "

"Gillespie himself said he has 'not been offered any position,' but that he has offered to serve in any capacity to re-elect Bush. 'If they wanted me to, I would lick envelopes.'"

"Another Republican close to the situation said: 'This is something that is probably going to happen.' The source added: 'It's a safe assumption that that is correct.'"

Mark Barabak sketches CREEP strategy in the Los Angeles Times : "'It's the campaign that never turns off,' said a Western GOP operative, who participates in one of several weekly strategy calls that originate at party headquarters and tie in dozens of GOP operatives across the country. 'They've been at it ever since they've been inaugurated.'" LINK

"But even before that signal came from the top, Rove — a lover of history — and others in the White House began plotting the 2004 strategy, starting with research into past reelection campaigns. Special care was given to study the failed effort of Bush's father, down to his day-to-day schedule in 1992 and the timing of campaign media statements, according to one Republican. But the working model for this Bush's reelection bid has been adapted from the last two presidents to win second terms: Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrat Bill Clinton."

"Reagan, who was personally popular in the way Bush is today, stayed out of the political mix until well into his reelection year. Clinton, in turn, amassed a huge financial advantage over his opponent and used that to begin a springtime advertising campaign that pounded the GOP nominee, former Kansas Senator Bob Dole, before Dole had the means to adequately respond."

"Bush is expected to enjoy a similar financial edge and emulate Reagan and Clinton by standing aside while aides launch an aggressive assault on whomever the Democrats nominate. That candidate should emerge sometime around March; the White House hope is that he or she too will lack the financial resources to effectively respond until the Democratic National Convention in July — by which time it may be too late."

"A consultant who has worked closely alongside Rove described his operating style this way: 'In your face. Offense, offense, offense. Attack, attack, attack.'"

"'They want to do whatever they can to put banana peels under every single Democrat running' even before it is clear which of them Bush will face, the GOP strategist said. 'Whoever [the Democrats] nominate, they want him weakened by the time he gets through the process.'"

"Many of those who served with Rove in Bush's first presidential campaign are expected to reprise their roles, including pollster Matthew Dowd, media adviser Mark McKinnon and finance director Jack Oliver, who now serves as deputy chairman and day-to-day overseer of the Republican National Committee. Ken Mehlman, the White House political director, is likely to serve as campaign manager, and Karen Hughes, Bush's closest adviser-without-portfolio, will also play a key role, perhaps out of a satellite campaign office in Austin, Texas. Marc Racicot, chairman of the RNC, may assume the same role and title at Bush's reelection committee.

The New York Times ' Rich Oppel somehow got some documents from the National Voting Rights Institute, apparently detailing some of the work from the Pioneers. LINK

Great must-read (sorry: there are a lot of those today, busy people), and the sign that as more documents get released/leaked, there will be a lot more of these stories.

On the other hand: rich people who know people who run for president know other rich people who can write $1,000 or $2,000 checks, and some of those rich people then know the president-elect and are qualified for big jobs in the new administration, and The Note can't get all worked up about that — which makes us a bit, in this sense at least, like that wise Jim Dyke.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney launched the next phase of the Invisible Primary in his must-read Week in Review story. LINK

Mr. Nagourney kicks off the 1992 comparison backlash portion of the current campaign cycle.

"Yes, the story line is almost irresistible in its symmetry: two presidents named Bush, two wars involving Iraq, two economies in distress and once again a concern about rising health care costs. And who can blame Democrats, understandably morose after defeats in 2000 and 2002, for grabbing this lifeline?"

"But the world is a different place than it was when the first President Bush saw his postwar popularity collapse under the weight of economic turmoil. These are two very different presidents, and two very different White Houses, particularly when it comes to politics. Not incidentally, the field of Democrats in this accelerated contest does not seem to include a candidate of the political caliber of a Bill Clinton."

"'It would be a mistake of the first order if the Democrats counted on the rhythms of 1992 to recur in 2004,' said James Carville, who was Mr. Clinton's campaign manager. 'The rhythms of 2004 are different than 1992, and if you try to dance to the rhythms of 1992, you'll be out of step.'"

Make sure to read every word including Matthew Dowd's analysis of why his boss isn't in as precarious a position on the economy as his father was.

SOUTH CAROLINA

John Wagner takes a look at Representative Jim Clyburn's kingmaker status in the Palmetto State. LINK

Congressman Gephardt apparently shouldn't expect Mr. Clyburn to be at his side when he rolls out those House endorsements later this month.

"Clyburn said he has no plans to make an endorsement until much later in the year. 'It might be a Christmas present for someone,' he said."

Mr. Wagner strangely neglects to mention that Senator Edwards departed from Friday's Fish Fry without addressing the crowd from the stage. However, Senator Edwards has already nabbed a Clyburn endorsement to crow about.

"Edwards counts state Rep. Bill Clyburn among his more visible South Carolina backers. The two Clyburns are first cousins and talk regularly about presidential politics. 'He has a tremendous following,' Bill Clyburn said of his cousin. 'If he endorses us, everyone else can pack up and go home.'"

"And if he endorses someone else? 'It means we're going to have to work a lot harder to win South Carolina.'"

MOSELEY BRAUN

Among the most accessible and friendly of the candidates in South Carolina, according to almost everyone.

KERRY

Senator John Kerry called into Imus this morning, showing more evidence of the dreaded spring cold/allergy combination, and good humor when Imus asked such questions as: "Do you think Teresa is too crazy to be first lady?" (which caused us to spit out our green tea and strain our ears for Kerry's answer).

Kerry said the "single most important thing is to restore confidence" on Wall Street, which the White House is not doing--[they] have "changed their economic players; they haven't changed their economic plan," and brushed aside a standard Imus Whitewater joke.

On Bush: "I know that landing on an aircraft carrier and not having a economic plan seems to work right now," but also evoked the old "are you better off today than you were four years ago" threat at the start of the interview.

Kerry and Imus discussed Adam Nagourney's Sunday story, and Kerry agreed that 2004 may not necessarily be a replay of 1992. "I would be crazy if I didn't acknowledge that the dynamics in the Middle East offer opportunities for the administration, of course they do."

On Dean: Following Imus' assertion that he himself has a "strong dislike" (close to hatred) for Howard Dean ( a "draft-dodging weasel," accordng to Imus), Kerry laughed and said "I'm not going there … I don't hate anybody … its fair to have differences."

He expressed his own differences wth Gephardt's health care plan, and with Lieberman's war policy (Vietnam reference!), and denied acrimony among the Democratic candidates.

On Teresa: Laughter, "thank you," "and how's your relationship with Deirdre," in response to the "too crazy" question. "She is a wonderful, extraordinary woman … She has been so terrific in the course of this campaign" (Imus Notes Kerry has not answered the question, requests a "yes or no answer") … "I think my wife would make a spectacular First Lady."

On Kerry's regime change remark, which Imus called both "idiotic" and his "Dixie Chicks moment": Kerry softened the words but not the sentiment that the administration is heading in the wrong direction, referred to the "orchestrated" White House attack (ganged up on by the likes of Hastert and DeLay), said he refused to be pushed around, promised to continue criticizing bad Administration policy, and said he wears the Republican attack as a "badge of honor" and as evidence the White House considers him the Democratic frontrunner.

On America: Kerry is enjoying his campaign travels around the US, meeting the wonderful, warm, generous people and seeing the historic sites, benefits working in the Senate does not allow.

On the debate: bizarre to find that many people on a stage that early, and his scratchy allergy voice affected his performance.

On Gore: In response to Imus's fantasy of a Lieberman win, whch would "kill him" and prompt Gore to gain 500 pounds, Kerry laughed and said: "You are looking for the greatest capacity to have hate burst out all across the land today."

They ended with profusions of mutual admiration and (newfound?) respect.

GRAHAM

In Sunday's Washington Post Maragzine, Michael Grunwald profiles Florida's "sober, conscientious, unfailingly courteous grandfather" and senior Senator, and finds, "Suddenly, Bob Graham has become a freakout guy. In fact, assuming he continues to recover from January surgery to replace a valve in his heart, he plans to run for president as a kind of freakout candidate, a red-alert politician for a freakout nation. He rails about 'hardened assassins' living among us, plotting attacks on American soil." LINK

"Florida U.S. Senator Bob Graham picked up the support of ex-Democratic Party Executive Director Ramsay McLauchlan. The choice is a natural since he and his wife will soon be moving to Florida," reports Kevin Landrigan, LINK

LIEBERMAN

David Lightman looks beyond the "I'd like to come over there and strangle you, George" moment and writes up his home state candidate's overall debate performance.LINK

"America saw the new, aggressive Joe Lieberman on Saturday night, a presidential candidate badly in need of momentum suddenly challenging his rivals and talking tough."

"His opponents credited him with a solid, perhaps even campaign-saving strategy in the 2004 race's first presidential debate."

"Lieberman therefore came into the University of South Carolina debate with three goals: 'To highlight a more aggressive Joe Lieberman,' said spokesman Jano Cabrera — as well as to show how Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's health care plan was an ode to big government, and to illustrate how squabbles over defense policy made the party look weak."

"Lieberman had as many particularly bright moments."

The Charleston Post and Courier's Ron Menchaca reports, "In comments Sunday to one of the state's largest black church congregations, Democratic presidential candidate Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut called on state leaders to remove the Confederate flag from the Statehouse grounds." LINK

"U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., who last week called on the nine candidates to avoid bringing up the flag or answering questions about it, said Sunday that his wishes extended only to the debate."

DEAN

Joe Edelheit Ross, a former aid to the late Senator Paul Tsongas, exlpains in the Los Angeles Times why Howard Dean "appears poised to benefit from three dynamics that assisted Carter in 1976 but that crucially eluded Hart in 1984 and Tsongas in 1992." LINK

Is there any member of the McMahon family who is NOT a Dean volunteer?

Looking at the first quarter fundraising reports, Tom Edsall is impressed with Howard Dean's ability to tap into "elites" as well as his domination of several occupational categories. LINK

But who helped Edsall with his pop culture lead?

US News says Howard Dean's campaign is testing messages via phone in Iowa. LINK

Campaign manager Joe Trippi wouldn't confirm or deny to us the existence of any phone calls to us, except to say that if the Dean campaign were to utilize that tactic, they wouldn't limit questions to their candidate.

So draw your own conclusions.

EDWARDS

The Charlotte Observer's Tim Funk writes up Senator Edwards' Sunday visit to Boston. LINK

After attacking Congressman Gephardt's health care plan in Saturday's debate, Senator Edwards hinted at his forthcoming plan and did so by taking a step to the political center.

"In response to other questions, Edwards indicated he was a few weeks away from unveiling a health insurance plan that he said would, among other things, provide health care coverage for the 9 million children not covered right now and give small businesses a tax credit to provide coverage for their employees."

"It appeared, though, that Edwards' plan would fall short of the scope and expense of U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt's plan, which would cover all 41 million Americans now without health insurance."

The very busy John Wagner followed Senator Edwards from South Carolina to the Kennedy Library. LINK

The Boston Herald's Elisabeth J. Beardsley reports on Senator Edwards' Sunday speech at the library, leading with his call "on national Democrats to join the presidential rainmaking race yesterday, pointing to a federal court ruling striking down parts of a ban on unregulated 'soft money.'" LINK

Beardsley quotes the Senator: "'I'm not for unilateral disarmament,' Edwards said. 'The future of the country is at stake and we have to be able to compete with the Republicans'", and writes:

"The North Carolina Democrat — who's filling his war chest faster than any other candidate — was key in shepherding last year's sweeping 'McCain-Finegold' campaign finance reforms into law."

"He also runs a political action committee that raised more than three-quarters of its $6 million kitty from soft money, and which had been hobbled by the ban."

Beardsley observes that Edwards covered a wide range of issues during his speech, and, "In the wake of the Democratic free-for-all, Edwards kept his remarks and criticism tightly focused on President Bush and the national Republican Party." (Topics: the "'Bush recession;'" "'right wing'" judicial nominees; diplomacy efforts; civil liberties; repealing the tax cut plan).

The "markedly friendly audience" was nonetheless an anti-war one, which reprimanded him over his vote in support of the war in Iraq, and pressed him to admit: "'I don't know the (casualty) count as of today."'

Beardsley Notes that rather than take questions from the media following his speech, Edwards retreated to a private reception for New Hampshire guests, where he still has work to do.

Is Senator Edwards aware that John Ashcroft won't be on the ballot in 2004? (And will he continue to get heat for voting in favor of the Patriot Act?)

The Charlotte Observer reports the American Tort Reform Association has a natural enemy in John Edwards and the organization is taking its anti-Edwards campaign to the internet. LINK

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The New Hampshire Business Review says that the presidential campaigns pumped in $78,000 worth of salaries to the New Hampshire economy.

Somewhat overlooked, Education Secretary Rod Paige spent the weekend in New Hampshire defending the administration's No Child Left Behind implementation. LINK

James Pindell looks at Derry, New Hampshire's influence in state politics. LINK

BCRA Redux:

Marc Ambinder's Monday assignment: LINK

On Sunday, the AP's David Espo summarized the judges' 1,700 page decision in 724 words. LINK

We'll let America's newspaper have the floor now:

"A complex federal court decision throwing out major parts of the nation's new campaign-finance law would place strict curbs on political advertising by special-interest groups, from organized labor to the National Rifle Association." LINK

"The three-judge panel that released its ruling Friday left the law, named for Senate sponsors John McCain and Russ Feingold, in tatters and lawyers scrambling to figure out what it means. Ultimately, the case will be heard by the Supreme Court, but that's not likely until late this year."

"Among the biggest immediate impacts: a ban on the use of corporate and union treasury money to broadcast any ad, at any time, that attacks or supports a federal candidate. 'It's a very significant development that people haven't come to grips with in understanding how sweeping it is,' says Don Simon of Common Cause, which backed the law. 'We got more from the court than we ever could have gotten from Congress.'"

"Lawyers on both sides expect the Supreme Court to be asked within days to stay the effect of Friday's ruling and avoid throwing the 2004 presidential and congressional campaigns into uncertainty."

"Also left in the dust by the court's ruling was the law's centerpiece: a ban on unlimited, unregulated contributions to political parties from wealthy individuals, unions and corporations, which is known as 'soft money.' But the judges upheld a provision barring the president and members of Congress from soliciting those contributions and barring use of the money in federal elections. It can be used for generic political activities, such as voter registration."

"That is likely to reopen the floodgates of soft money, says Kenneth Gross, an election lawyer who advises donors and political groups. 'On Monday morning, if a corporation wants to donate money to the national parties, I'm going to let them do it,' Gross says. 'Right now, the coast is clear.'"

Big Casino budget politics:

The Washington Post 's Weisman and Milbank do a very lovely job looking at the White House's attempts to round up two Democratic votes to pass a tax cut in the Senate. LINK

The two code-breaking paragraphs from a pair of men whose propensity to get on the phone with reporters these days are not identical:

"If the tax cut fails to pass, Bush can blame Democrats for the limping economy. 'The Democrats have taken the wrong lesson from their defeat at the polls last time and concluded that they should be more obstructionist,' said GOP lobbyist Ed Gillespie, an informal White House adviser. 'If the economy doesn't get better, they're in the position of it being their fault.'"

"Bush allies also say that even if Democrats and Republican holdouts succeed in limiting the tax cut to $350 billion, Bush can still claim victory. 'What this administration is doing, and most people haven't figured it out yet, is an annual tax cut,' said Grover Norquist, a GOP activist close to the White House. 'Democrats have consented, in the middle of a war, in the middle of a massive deficit, to tax cuts.'"

The Wall Street Journal 's Bob Davis looks at Treasury Secretary Snow, and his failure (so far) to get enough converts on the Hill for the Bush tax plan.

The mini-bio also includes these nuggetty graphs:

"The administration has been reluctant to release a study prepared by the Treasury and the White House that examines the economic effect of the Bush tax plan, and comes up with a much lower price tag for the package. A senior Treasury official says the study isn't yet complete, but others familiar with the report say it's been ready to go for weeks. A faster-growing economy and more buoyant stock market would boost tax receipts sufficiently to reduce the cost of the Bush tax plan by about one-third, according to officials who have seen the report. Using those numbers, the Bush administration could argue, the full Bush tax plan fits under the $550 billion budget level."

"Those keeping the study under wraps might be concerned that it would undercut support for parts of the tax plan — especially the popular child credit — that don't boost growth much. The report also could open the administration to charges that it's cooking the books. 'Without a doubt, that's how it would be seen,' says Senator Grassley, the Finance Committee chairman."

The Wall Street Journal 's Murray and McKinnon have Senator Grassley beginning to re-write the Bush plan.

The Wall Street Journal ed board attacks Hill Republicans for not getting the president's tax cut passed, what with an election coming up and voters bound to judge the party's stewardship of the economy.

The Washington Post 's inexplicably still underrated Amy Goldstein sounds positively like Robert Pear with this lead: "Nearly half the states have reduced child-care subsidies for poor families during the past two years, according to a federal study to be released today, which shows that states' fiscal problems have prompted state agencies to restrict eligibility, stop accepting new families or charge them more for the care." LINK

The New York Times ' love affair with moderate Republicans who buck presidents of their own party (They are called "squishes" elsewhere in town … .) continues today, with a Robin Toner tone poem to Olympia Snowe. LINK

Economy:

The Wall Street Journal has separate stories on the mystery of the sluggish manufacturing sector, and last Friday's wowing unemployment number.

Judicial nominations:

In the parallel universe inhabited by the New York Times ed board, the Bush judicial confirmation fights are as gripping to the nation as a really entertaining reality TV show. LINK

In the parallel universe inhabited by the Wall Street Journal 's Robert Bartley, now that his team controls the White House and the Hill, he seems to have forgotten all those anti-Clinton editorials he oversaw that would seem to have played at least some role in keeping the politics of personal destruction going forward (and we mean the unfair editorials, not the fair ones).

Legislative agenda:

The Washington Post 's almost-too-talented-for-his-own-good Jim "I'm Not James" VandeHei front pages a look at the apparently resurgent clout of the pro-Second Amendment side, leading thusly: LINK

"The gun industry, demonstrating its resurgent influence over Washington politics, is on the cusp of convincing President Bush and Congress to protect it from pending and future lawsuits."

"Under pressure from the National Rifle Association and a lesser-known organization funded with $100 million from gun manufacturers, Bush and a majority of lawmakers are on record supporting significant new legal protections for companies that make and sell guns. The legislation would prevent victims of gun crimes from making civil claims against companies that manufactured, imported or sold the weapons."

Some Democrats and anti-gun groups (yes, yes, "gun safety" groups) claim the NRA clout is overstated, but facts are stubborn things.

Politics:

Hail victory, braves on the warpath, fight for all D.C.!!

Or, perhaps, fight for all Landover!!

The Note was tempted to make some joke about the difference between handling the media for Bill Clinton and handling the media for the Washington Redskins, but we won't.

Instead, we'll just say: congratulations to Julia Payne (one of the few people we have ever known who can read Bruce Lindsey's body language), the new vice president for communications for the Washington Redskins.

Ms. Payne instantly joins the top tier of former Clinton and Gore aides with post C-G glam jobs (Wendy Smith at CAA, Jake Siewart in the aluminum business, etc).

One of the greatest confirmation sherpas in American history (Tom Korologos), one of the greatest woman soccer players in American history (Mia Hamm), one of the greatest men's basketball players in American history (Mike), the Ritz Carlton in the West End, and mold all come together in a classic Annie Groer must-read that is very, very Washington. LINK

Michael Kinsley on Bill Bennett. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

The Boston Globe s' Anne Kornblut gives President Bush the full Sunday magazine cover story treatment. LINK

Ms. Kornblut uses the president's swaggering style as a lens through which she sees his long list of successes.

"Combativeness from Bush has become increasingly routine, especially in dealing with reporters or anyone else who dares challenge his authority. Indeed, for a president who is closely stage-managed and prides himself on discipline, George W. Bush has let his temper flare publicly an unusual number of times. He has glared at the cameras, threatened his adversaries, even joked about running a dictatorship. The outbursts, although occasional, have fed the cowboy caricature that sums up why a large number of people around the world are so furious with his administration and, by extension, the United States."

"Yet Bush's ire is more than an interesting impulse. It reflects a driving force behind his presidency. Bush detests being challenged, whether by reporters or political leaders. He is unyielding in his convictions, to the exclusion of all else. He is principled. But he is also stubborn, a trait that has become a guiding force of his governing style, a management tool, and perhaps even a new chapter in American history."

Kornblut's analysis turns Oedipal:

"In 1987, Newsweek magazine ran a cover story about then vice president George H. W. Bush under the headline "Bush Battles the Wimp Factor." The criticism deeply stung the elder Bush, who has been known to mention it to Newsweek staffers in the years since, but it also taught his son a lesson. Current advisers to President Bush have carefully studied his father's political playbook, on everything from taxes to foreign policy, and more or less done the opposite. No one would accuse this President Bush of being a wimp — or of lacking the "vision thing," the other charge that dogged the 41st president."

"To explain George W. Bush as the antithesis of his father is tempting, but it overlooks an even likelier model for his behavior — his mother. Three years before the elder Bush's backbone was questioned, Barbara Bush stunned the political world with a daring insult to her husband's Democratic rival for the vice presidency, Geraldine Ferraro. "I can't say it, but it rhymes with rich," Barbara Bush said of Ferraro. She later apologized and insisted she had meant Ferraro was a witch, not the profanity everyone had assumed."

"That sort of biting invective and sarcasm show up in the current president time and again — as do the former first lady's impatience, contempt for the media, and ferocity. Before friendly audiences, Bush mentions his mother far more than his father, often joking that he is still obeying her orders."

C'mon, Rick, mix it up: Bumiller on the pastry chef, and David Sanger on North Korea nukes! LINK and LINK