2003 Note
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NEWS SUMMARY
We positively detest the practice under which each presidential candidate gets asked his or her own set of identical reporters' questions over and over and over again.
Nothing more amuses campaign press secretaries (and gives them a more negative view of the media's creativity) than the fact that they can predict like clockwork what local and national reporters will ask their pony almost every time. Only the sequencing changes.
For Bob Graham, who formally announces his presidential campaign today around noon in Miami Lakes, Florida, those questions are as simple as they are repetitive:
--Aren't you too far behind in fundraising and organization, particularly in the early states, to win?
--What's with those wacky Notebooks?
--Aren't you too low-key to be elected?
The Note is already sick of hearing Senator Graham having to answer these queries, so we can only imagine how he feels about them.
We cannot figure out to save our lives why Graham is not being taken more seriously as a formidable candidate by the Gang of 500.
He is from the ultimate mega-state of presidential politics; he's been an overwhelmingly popular governor and senator; he can tout his electability, without anyone challenging it or giggling; he has a record on national security, health care, and the economy; he is unflappable; he has attracted a top-level staff in a hurry; he is well-liked in Washington and in his homestate; he has a strong fundraising record; he's a genuinely nice guy with fewer airs about him than anyone running; he has a loyal staff; etc.
And yet, and yet the other campaigns don't seem to fear him, and we can't quite explain why, but he just isn't talked about much by the Chattering Class as a player in this nomination fight. Look at all the soft-ball questions he got in the debate.
Despite the fact that he is the ultimate vice presidential candidate bridesmaid, it seems in one sense almost a certainty that Graham will be on the ticket in 2004 if not at the top, then in the second slot.
Putting Florida decidedly in play is no small thing, and Graham seems like a great compliment to any of the other likely nominees.
But Graham says he is running for the top position, and we take him very much at his word.
Before we examine this cycle's Bobster, we should remind you that today is a big Big Casino day, what with there being lots of bicameral Hill activity intended to get bills moving; we'll see another presidential selling speech; Leader Pelosi and Congressman Rangel will hold a budget presser; and Tom Daschle will unveil a jobs and prosperity plan that Democrats say will stimulate the economy immediately.
Key details about Senator Daschle's plan, courtesy of an aide:
It'll cut taxes for "every taxpaying America," $300 per adult wage credit, $300 for the first two children. The child tax cut would be accelerated to $800 in 2004. It proposes to eliminate the marriage penalty by doubling the deduction taken by married couples and would adjust the Earned Income Tax Credit to help, too.
The plan would treble the amount small businesses can expense, provide $40 billion in aid to states, and extend unemployment benefits.
We'll just say in short that the president's tax plan remains very much in limbo, and tell you to see "Big Casino" below.
All this budget activity is creating havoc in the lives of the campaign schedulers of all the senators running for president, including the one from Florida.
The RNC's Graham oppo document shot into our in boxes at 8:18 this morning, with the subject line "GRAHAM BOMBS." LINK
First, because we can't resist, and because such parodies have not yet become the cliché they surely will before too long, our latest effort to understand the senior Senator from Florida comes from this exclusively time-shifted excerpt from his Notebook:
6 am: Woke up MLTH
6:30 am: complete shower, shave, lather with Old Spice
6:42 am: Join Adele for breakfast in the atrium; grits, pure, Florida quality orange juice, lightly fat-free margarined-toast.
6:48 am: Sign check for cable bill
7 am: In car to Main Street for meeting
12:15 pm: announce candidacy
12:45 pm: lunch; slice of piping hot, gooey, cheese pizza
Thus we can defuse all the concerns that we raised about Graham in our lead: none of those entries seem the least bit strange to us; no one has a hold on this nomination by a long shot; and, with all due respect, the field Graham formally joins today arguably has less combined charisma than the cast of "The Beltway Boys."
We think it is pretty clear that Bob Graham is being underestimated in this deal.
The answer to just how much he is being underestimated will start to come today, when an audience that is expected to include opinionmaker Ron Fournier will evaluate a speech in which Graham will start to explain a rationale for a candidacy that we are all still trying to understand.
Bob Graham
Not all of the "announced" candidates have done speeches such as the one Graham will give today (Gephardt and Lieberman, for instance, did, but Kerry and Edwards did not, but presumably they will later on this year.).
Graham's event has the traditional announcement elements: hometown, surrounded by state supporters and family, and some newspaper curtain raising.
Will all-news cable channels take it live? Will there be any dog rescues occurring simultaneously?
Cutting the payroll tax and a Lugarian national security pitch will be part of the launch.
The payroll tax has great populist appeal, we think, and Graham loves it. LINK
The Miami Herald 's Tyler Bridges writes that the choice of Miami Lakes's Main Street is symbolic:
"Main Street represents the traditional values he hopes to convey to voters. Married for 44 years, father of four, grandfather of 10, a public official for 37 years without scandal, Graham paints himself as a centrist candidate with the integrity and experience necessary to lead the most powerful nation in the world."
"Main Street also is the heart of the thriving town that Graham and his brothers built on what was once a barren cow pasture employing the same kind of can-do spirit that he says he will use to revitalize the country's sagging economy."
And Bridges writes the candidacy will be built around two strategies, one old, one new:
"The old strategy will be dusted off on Friday, when Graham begins his second trip to New Hampshire site of the first presidential primary next January by being teacher for a day."
The idea of taking on a variety of jobs to learn more about the concerns of ordinary voters and send a message that he will listen to them was key to Graham winning a long-shot race for governor in 1978, and "workdays" have been a signature Graham event since."
"They captured the public's fancy 25 years ago and he is hoping he can take the act on the road in the presidential contest, where he said the biggest challenge is 'to be heard.'"
"'I'm taking workdays to as many states as possible,' Graham said in South Carolina, home to the first Southern state primary in February."
"Bob Graham unloading cargo at the port in Charleston would be the second or third story on local television,' said Kevin Geddings, a South Carolina political strategist. 'That connects more with voters than hugging onto another tired local politician.'"
"The new strategy calls for Graham to appeal to conservative, rural voters so-called NASCAR Democrats who typically vote in lower numbers in Democratic primaries. He hopes they will support a Southerner who promises to be tough with terrorists, favors the death penalty and knows how to use a rifle, although he does so infrequently."
Those Notebooks will become a "campaign gimmick," according to the Palm Beach Post. LINK
The Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel has a nice biography: LINK
A version of Senator Graham's campaign speech appeared on his new web site: LINK
The AP's Ron Fournier (That's right did we mention Fournier!!!!) writes up Senator Graham's formal announcement, calling him a "a proven vote-getter in America's fourth most populous state" who "is formally launching his Democratic presidential campaign by accusing President Bush of shirking the war against terrorism to recklessly 'settle old scores' against Iraq's Saddam Hussein." LINK
Here's the AP's "bio box" on Graham: LINK
The Concord Monitor welcomes him to the race. LINK ABC 2004: CREEP:
The aformentioned Fournier of the AP reports "Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot is expected to become chairman of President Bush's re-election campaign, and the leading candidate to replace him is Washington lobbyist and political strategist Ed Gillespie." LINK
"Commerce Secretary Don Evans had been a candidate for the campaign post, but officials said he would prefer to remain in Bush's Cabinet and informally advise the president from inside the administration."
The Washington Post briefs the Racicot-Gillespie story, and mentions Evans. LINK
The New York Times scholarly Katharine Q. Seelye does much the same, and somehow gets Ed Gillespie to use a sports metaphor: LINK
"'They know my jersey number,' Mr. Gillespie said of the White House. 'If they call it, I'll run onto the field.'"
No word we can find yet on what all this could mean to Ed's tee times or Jack Quinn's bottom line.
Don Lambro writes about the Democratic debate, and quotes Ed Gillespie but there's nothing in there about the Bush campaign or the RNC. LINK
Chairman Racicot makes the Washington Post 's "whither AmeriCorps?" story. LINK
Mike Allen of the Washington Post good naturedly eats Rich Oppel's sloppy seconds on the Bush Pioneer story, including some new details, such as Jack Oliver's deposition (imagine the prep time!). LINK
Paul Krugman positively detested the aircraft carrier photo op, and he earns a dinner invitation to the Begala household by devoting a few sentences to the president's "missing year" of National Guard service matter, which would surely be revived in a Bush-Kerry general election match-up. LINK Big Casino budget politics
The AP reports along with everyone else that the president "detoured to Arkansas to put pressure on Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln to support $550 billion in tax cuts over a decade. But the president left Arkansas empty-handed, with Lincoln still committed to a smaller tax cut." LINK
The Wall Street Journal reports, "Congressional Republicans are considering slashing taxes for this year on corporate cash earned overseas, to encourage big U.S. multinationals to bring home as much as $300 billion to help stimulate business investment in the U.S."
"The move, which could be added to the Senate's tax-cut bill or other legislation, would trim the 2003 U.S. tax rate on the repatriation of earnings from some foreign operations to 5.25% from the current 35%. It would have the effect of offering a temporary tax haven at home for companies that now keep money in foreign tax havens and controversial offshore shelters."
In a separate story about the president's trip to Little Rock, the Journal says, "One problem for Mr. Bush is that Ms. Lincoln and other centrist Democrats on the Finance Committee such as Louisiana Senator John Breaux and Montana Senator Max Baucus are from low-income states where few would benefit from the dividend-tax cut at the center of the president's plan. Their constituents would be helped by other elements of the proposal, such as an increase in the child tax credit to $1,000 from $600. But those family-oriented benefits are the ones Republicans would most like to scale back to make room for the dividend relief coveted by Mr. Bush."
This Robert Pear story in the New York Times could throw a big monkey wrench of the non-Googling kind into the gears of the president's fiscal plans:
"Congressional efforts to revamp Medicare by expanding the role of private health plans have been immensely complicated by new data suggesting that such plans would not save money and could substantially increase Medicare costs." LINK
"Republicans in Congress said last week that they had accepted President Bush's proposal to encourage the development of private health plans known as preferred provider organizations, which steer patients to certain doctors and hospitals. Competition among private plans can slow the growth of Medicare, they said."
"But, federal officials and health policy experts say, new evidence shows that the private plans pay doctors and hospitals more than Medicare pays, so they would probably not save money any time soon."
The Washington Post ed board seems to have its green eye shades permanently affixed, as it writes again about Republican tax and deficit plans. LINK
The Chicago Tribune's William Neikirk describes the gauntlet tax cut proponents face. Neikirk implies the need for a helmet. LINK
"Stubborn unemployment is apparently the biggest threat to President Bush's re-election, but the White House's faith that a $550 billion tax cut will become a job-creating machine is by no means universally accepted among economists."
"A complex obstacle course stands in the way of any attempt to spark economic revival and substantial new job creation by the 2004 election, many analysts say, and it is not clear that tax cuts will wipe out all the problems holding back employment growth by then."
"These barriers include the current snail's pace of economic growth, the gloomy mood of businesses, too much manufacturing capacity in some industries, the danger of rising interest rates from larger budget deficits and a more efficient economy in which workers are more productive so fewer are needed."
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary
Question: What If Godfrey Sperling attended one of his own breakfasts?
Answer: This column: LINK
David Broder's debate scorecard is more down on Kerry and less up on Lieberman than most of what has already been written by others, and let's just say David wasn't blown away by the field overall. LINK
George Will channels Chris Lehane in writing about Dr. Dean, and hints that he doesn't think the Gang of Nine has a field of dreams chance in heck of beating George W. Bush. LINK
Tom Edsall tells The Note (regarding our question about from where he got his "90210" details from his weekend story): "No one helped Edsall with the 90210 lead except Google which has more sites describing plot themes than it has sites referring to either the Washington Post or The Note."
For the record, this is on the op-ed page of the New York Times today: "Because of a production error, the last paragraph of William Safire's column yesterday, about the Democratic presidential candidates' debate in South Carolina, omitted four words in some editions. The paragraph should have read:"
"'So who won this Derby, besides George? Lieberman and Gephardt finished in a dead heat, with Kerry closing and Edwards off the pace. I'm ready for the Preakness.'" LINK
So you know, the last four words were the missing ones.
'04 travel updates:
A tax vote cancels Senator Kerry from New Hampshire Thursday. He's rescheduled for next Monday.
Senator Graham will travel to Iowa and New Hampshire this weekend.
Representative Gephardt plans to fly to New Hampshire on Saturday.
Senator Lieberman bumps to New Hampshire on Friday.
DEAN
The AP's Christopher Graff reports emphatically that Senator Kerry was wrong during Saturday's debate when he said the percentage of Vermonters with health insurance decreased from 90.5% to 90.4% during Howard Dean's years as governor
but Dean was also wrong when he used more numbers to defend himself. LINK
"Dean, however, didn't make things any clearer when he detailed the Vermont program and said in the debate that '96.4 percent of all our people are covered today.' That figure is the percentage of Vermont children with health insurance; the latest estimate for adults with health insurance is 91.6 percent."
"Kerry's figures came from the US Census Bureau, but his first figure is from 1990: Dean became governor in 1991 and the same Census Bureau report Kerry cited says 87.3 percent of Vermonters had health insurance that year, which would mean the percentage of insured climbed from 87.3 percent in 1991 to 90.4 percent in 2001."
"[Health] analysts say the Census Bureau figures on health care coverage, especially from the early 1990s, are unreliable because of the small sample size used in the survey. Robert Mills, a researcher at the Census Bureau, wrote last year that this particular Census Bureau survey 'is not designed primarily to collect health insurance data; it is largely a labor force survey.'"
"Steven Kappel, a health analyst with the non-partisan Joint Fiscal Committee of the Vermont Legislature, said the Census Bureau's figures are especially suspect in small states."
Cue the spin: "Robert Gibbs of the Kerry campaign said Monday the bottom line is that the overall adult numbers of uninsured in Vermont did not change much in the 11 years Dean served as governor."
"'I think he leaves people with the strong impression that he dramatically decreased the number of uninsured throughout Vermont children and adults and the numbers simply prove that is not true,' said Gibbs."
"[Gibbs] said it is misleading for Dean to imply that he can translate what he did to expand health care for children in Vermont into a national solution for health care. 'The problem of going from 42 million uninsured to zero is not simply a problem with children,' said Gibbs. 'It is a problem with children and adults.'"
A couple of Angelinos take Mr. Barabak to task for his recent assessment of Howard Dean's campaign strategy. LINK
IOWA
Congressman Gephardt's institutional connections to the state are paying off, a new Zogby poll of Iowa Democrats just might suggest maybe. He leads the field with 25%, followed by Senator Kerry, who polls half that.
But as the Register's David Yepsen reports, "The survey, conducted April 25-27 by Zogby International, found 31 percent of likely caucus participants were undecided."
"That's good news for back-of-the-pack candidates like Florida Senator Bob Graham, who made his first campaign venture into Iowa last week. While it's getting late in the campaign, it's not too late. Many politically sophisticated caucus-goers take their sweet time in deciding on a candidate. Even many of those who've expressed an initial preference could be persuaded to change." LINK
Interestingly, Senator Edwards and Gary Hart both got the support of four percent of the sample.
More Yepsen:
"[A]lways look for who is in the top three places among the candidates. Throughout the history of the caucuses, no candidate who has finished worse than third in Iowa has gone on to win a major party nomination. Any serious presidential candidate who does not finish in one of the top three slots becomes walking wounded. The national media folks will start killing them between the commas by writing obit-sounding things like: 'Candidate Joe Blow, staggering from a fifth-place finish in Iowa's caucuses, limped into New Hampshire Tuesday grasping for bandages to save what looks like a mortally wounded campaign.' It's rather hard to raise money off stories like that."
"Third, watch Gephardt. He won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 and as a result must do so again. The political community expects it. If he doesn't, he's toast."
"And if he wins, many will shrug it off and more of the story lines coming out of here will be about who came in second or third and what that will mean for the New Hampshire primary the following week. In Iowa, Kerry and Lieberman are now in second and third place. Kerry should feel better about that than Lieberman. In a January Zogby poll, the positions were reversed, with Lieberman in second and Kerry third."
"Fourth, look at who is moving and in what direction. It's not much, but Kerry has picked up two points from January while Lieberman dropped eight. That's a huge fall. Much of Lieberman's early poll numbers are the result of the name identification he earned as Al Gore's running mate in 2000, and it doesn't seem to be translating into presidential votes this year."
"The other surprise in these numbers is that Edwards is flat and has yet to recapture the early sparkle he had. He may be too hawkish or too green to make it into the top tier. Look for him to start spending more of his fat bankroll here. He doesn't have to win Iowa, but he sure can't finish fifth."
"By contrast, Dean has moved up handsomely. He's gone from two points to six. No one else has tripled the level of support. Based on Dean's rate of gain and Lieberman's rate of fade, the two will switch positions in a couple more months."
We all need to join hands and re-think all this expectations stuff.
KERRY
The AP reports Senator Kerry "had been scheduled to deliver a policy speech on citizenship Wednesday in Washington, but his campaign said Monday that the event has been rescheduled for later this month to give the Massachusetts senator time to rest his voice." LINK
The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove gets a look at Lisa DePaulo's Elle magazine interview with the garrulous, wealthy Teresa Heinz Kerry. LINK
In the piece, Mrs. Senator Kerry explains the new use of her current husband's last name ("'Now, politically, it's going to be Teresa Heinz Kerry, but I don't give a [bleep], you know?'"); her reluctance to adopt the adoring gaze of the candidate's wife; the necessity of a prenup; the necessity of Botox; and her intolerance of affairs (about which she recalls laughing threateningly with the late Senator Heinz).
Senator Kerry himself is quoted as calling his wife sexy, then adds "'She knows how to speak with her eyes.'"
Apparently he hasn't read all her interviews.
LIEBERMAN
In his syndicated column, National Review's Rich Lowry carefully but smartly takes on Jews who fear a Lieberman presidency (and there are many of them): "The question that an embattled Jewish community used to ask of any development in American public life was: 'Yes, but is it good for the Jews?' Any Jew who doubts the answer to that question when it comes to the prospect of a Lieberman presidency is living in another century, and perhaps on another planet."
"If anyone doubts the tolerance of America, they should consider Lieberman's early strength in South Carolina and Oklahoma, driven by support from black Baptists and other Christians. They care more that Lieberman is a man of faith than that he is Jewish."
The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mark Naymik spent some time on the trail with Senator Lieberman yesterday. Lieberman was in the Buckeye State making a pitch for more federal dollars for first responders. LINK
"'More communities have more responsibility and less money,' Lieberman said, sipping coffee at a table before more than a dozen firefighters and reporters at Station 1, on Superior Avenue near downtown."
"Lieberman, who has leveled similar criticism before, brought the message to Cleveland because it represents the typical city that Bush is 'not willing to put money on the table to help protect,' he said."
Naymik put a call in to the RNC and got a statement that we are quite convinced is taped to every committee spokesperson's computer monitor.
"Dan Ronayne, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, dismissed Lieberman's charges but declined to discuss Bush's specific plans to pay for training and equipment for emergency workers."
"'Sounds like a reckless political rhetoric from someone running for president in a crowded field wanting attention,' Ronayne said."
New Note game: Where In the World is Jared "Roadshow" Asch?*
*Lieberman's "National Roadshow Fundraiser" and all-around superstar.
GEPHARDT
The Hill takes a look at whether or not Majority Leader Pelosi is playing coy with her endorsement of her predecessor. LINK
"Though the Gephardt campaign would not confirm if Pelosi's support had been secured, it denied there was even a perception among House Democrats that Pelosi was withholding or delaying her support."
"'We're not concerned about a perception that doesn't exist,' said Erik Smith, a Gephardt spokesman. 'Mr. Gephardt will have strong support from the House Democratic Caucus.'"
EDWARDS
The Boston Globe 's Tom Oliphant observes that President Bush and the nine Democratic candidates are struggling to adjust to post-Iraq politics. LINK
Citing Senator Edwards' dismissive comments at the Kennedy library about the Kerry-Dean squabble, as well as Bush's awkward landing with his California tax speech, following the glorious camera-ready US Lincoln arrival, Oliphant suggests that Democrats and Republicans alike need to move beyond the elemental talking points of war in order to attract voters in 2004.
Oliphant posits that, at the South Carolina debate, those who fared best were "those who supported the war and showed an ability to move beyond it" (Gephardt, Edwards, Lieberman), then gives Edwards, a "populist moderate," a couple more paragraphs.
"The point is that Edwards has a thematic wrapping that transcends the specifics of policy debates: that the most important of America's problems can be traced to special interest excess. It is no accident that he remains the Democrat who both puzzles Bush's reelection managers the most and causes them the most concern."
Sharon Theimer's excellent Associated Press story on Senator Edwards Southern fundraising leaves out the most important detail: the name of his top Southern fundraiser. LINK
Melissa Koenigsberg, call your office (when you're not dialing for dollars in Tennessee).
NEW HAMPSHIRE
A Mason-Dixon poll puts Kerry at 28%, Dean at 21%, Lieberman at 14%, Gephardt at 11%, and Edwards at 2%.
KUCINICH
"Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich said Monday that he would propose raising taxes on employers to pay for a government-run universal health insurance program," the Des Moines Register 's Beaumont writes. LINK
BCRA redux
The Campaign Legal Center, a BCRA ally, has an excellent web site with just about every link you'll need, as well as a great round-up of press stories. LINK
Ken Starr made the inevitable official, appealing BCRA to the U.S. Supreme Court. LINK
The current climate reminds Adam Clymer a lot of 1976. LINK
The New York Times predictably urges SCOTUS to get on with it and gins up its loophole metaphor engine for the zillionth time. LINK
Alex Bolton says the four congressional campaign fundraising committees are going to hold off on rushing to raise soft money again. LINK
"The four most important congressional fundraising committees are unlikely to begin raising soft money again in the wake of a decision Friday by a three-judge panel to strike down two major provisions of the new campaign finance law."
"Almost everyone impacted by the decision says the entire campaign finance landscape has been turned into dangerously confusing uncharted territory."
"Officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), say they still cannot venture into these dangerous fundraising waters because their key members are also federal office holders."
"As a result, they will continue to refrain from raising unregulated contributions, popularly known as soft money, even though the court ruling lifts the ban on this category, which had funded a major portion of their operations in past election cycles."
Politics:
The Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin does a nice process story on how the congressional campaign committees are hitting up trade groups to become major bundlers of hard dollars from their members. LINK
Can't Steve Hildebrand find a race to work on that is actually calm and quiet and normal? LINK
The Wall Street Journal ed board celebrates Mayor Anthony Williams nod towards education vouchers for the District: "Mayor Williams's defection from inner-city Democratic orthodoxy not only signals just how close vouchers are to becoming a reality in the nation's capital, it exposes a huge fault within the largely Democratic African-American establishment."
Fred Barnes hides behind the skirts of Deborah Orin and Dick Morris in a Wall Street Journal op-ed about Senator Clinton's prospects as a 2008 presidential candidate.
Cindy Adams writes that Senator Clinton threw a baby shower for "former White House press chief" Lisa Caputo at the Fifth Avenue home of Norma Asnes; 100 guests celebrated, including a number of female media luminaries. LINK
The New York Daily News' Rush and Molloy pick up the Salon excerpts of Sidney Blumenthal's book. LINK
(The gossip duo also cites Jake Tapper's story on Cat Stevens.)
The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove reports that Representative Jennifer Dunn is wearing a big engagement rock, and that President Bush is still on track to appear with Prime Minister Sharon at the "Israel at 55" event later this month. LINK
Republican California Congressman Darrell Issa is digging deep into his pockets to launch an effort supporting the recall movement against Governor Gray Davis. LINK
The Webby Awards:
The Notepad is on hiatus (using the time off to make a movie with Matthew Perry, if you must know), but the voting for the People's Voice Webby Award continues for just a few more weeks, and did we ever happen to mention that The Note has been nominated?
If you enjoy The Note, or if you ever thought about attending college in Kentucky, please consider voting for us here. LINK Bush Administration Strategy/Personality:
The Washington Post 's Dana Milbank does some Kremlinological work on why the Bush White House is exiling the Council of Economic Advisers to Siberia or, at least, to 1800 G Street. LINK
Is Karen DeYoung covering the White House now for the Washington Post ? LINK
She went to Little Rock, as did David Sanger, and we have done several word searches in both their stories, and we do not see the words "Korea" or "nuclear" in either. LINK
Very, very strange, indeed.
* LINK
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