Milagros Rosario, right, and Waldys Taveras, of the Bronx, pause during a moment of silence near the World Trade Center site March 11, 2002 in New York.
(Tina Fineberg/AP Photo)
Six Months Later
Poll Finds Support for Bush, War on Terrorism Isn’t Fading
Analysis By Gary Langer
March 11
— Six months after Sept. 11, Americans are expressing enormous sustained support for the war on terrorism, broad approval of George W. Bush's job performance — and a swelling sense of patriotism that leads most to say this crisis has changed the nation for the better.
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Eighty-two percent approve of Bush's job performance; while that's 10 points below his peak in early October he has still soared higher, longer than any previous president in polls dating to 1938.
Even more people — 88 percent — approve of Bush's handling of the war, while 64 percent approve "strongly." And more than eight in 10 think it's going well.
All the same, some underlying numbers have slipped. There has been an 18-point drop since the fall of the Taliban in views that the fighting in Afghanistan is going "very" well for the United States — perhaps reflecting recent casualties. And "strong" support for Bush and the war, while still healthy, are both down from their early-October highs.
There is also increasing public concern about views in the Muslim world, marked by a 21-point increase in the number of Americans who say the United States is not doing all it can to win support there. And support for attacking Iraq falls sharply if U.S. allies don't line up behind the idea.
More Than a Rally
Still, the administration's overall ratings in this crisis have endured far beyond the usual, brief "rally-'round" effect that occurs at times of national crisis. No modern president has seen a surge last this long.
Public views seem instead to reflect a mindful evaluation of the political and military response to Sept. 11 — including the fact that another major terrorist attack has not occurred.
Crucially, 66 percent of Americans say the United States is now doing all it reasonably can to try to prevent further terrorist attacks — a fundamental gauge of the government's response. And even more, 82 percent, believe the war has effectively limited the ability of Osama bin Laden to operate his al Qaeda network.
The public also expresses stoicism in the face of casualties. Despite last week's losses, 81 percent say the United States is doing all it reasonably can to avoid U.S military casualties. And people seem steeled for more: Eighty percent think the most difficult fighting in Afghanistan is yet to come.
The phrase "quagmire," though, is nowhere near the public's lips: Just 18 percent think the country is heading for another Vietnam, only about half as many as said that about either Serbia in 1999 or Bosnia in 1995. Seventy-seven percent reject the notion.
For all this, the public's views are not unreasonably rosy. Only around a quarter say the broader war, or the Afghanistan campaign, is going "very" well. Just three in 10 say the efforts to limit al Qaeda have been "very" effective.
Seventy percent express continued concern about more terrorist attacks in this county (although high-level concern is down). A substantial minority, more than four in 10, lack confidence in the government's ability to prevent more attacks.
And then there's the question of Osama bin Laden.
The Bin Laden Question
Less than half of Americans — 44 percent — say bin Laden must be killed or captured for the war on terrorism to be a success. That's about the same as it was in January, down sharply from 64 percent in December and November alike.
A variety of factors could be involved. One is the sense that bin Laden has been functionally disabled. Another could be a growing recognition of the difficulties of catching one man — the "big world, small bullet" problem. Another could be a change in the risk-reward calculation; fewer than half, 44 percent, now say it's worth risking substantial U.S. casualties to get bin Laden, down from 60 percent in November.
And there could simply have been a realignment of priorities. Most Americans in this poll say bin Laden should not be the war's chief goal: Sixty-three percent say a bigger focus should be to kill or capture al Qaeda members in general, while just 22 percent say it should be to go after bin Laden specifically.
Confidence that the United States will get bin Laden has declined from 81 percent in late September to 60 percent today — about the same now as in January, and still a majority. Many fewer, though, are "very" confident of that result — 22 percent.
Strong Support for Expanding War
Taking the fight elsewhere remains very much on the public's list. Seventy-two percent support sending U.S. troops to countries such as the Philippines and Yemen to try to capture terrorists there.
Seventy-two percent also continue to favor a U.S. military effort to oust Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. But without backing from U.S. allies, support for attacking Iraq declines by a substantial 17 points, to 55 percent.
At the same time, nearly three-quarters say the United States currently is doing enough to win allied support in the campaign against terrorism. But support in Muslim nations remains a source of greater concern.
Although still a minority, the number of Americans who say the United States is not doing enough to win the support of Muslim people around the world has more than doubled since October, to 39 percent.
Conventional wisdom suggests that support for military action necessarily declines as casualties mount. Vietnam is one common example; another is Somalia, where 18 U.S. soldiers died in battle on Oct. 3, 1993. Video of one soldier's body being dragged through the street by a mob is supposed to have drained U.S. public support.
In fact, however, support for the operation in Somalia had plunged before the battle of Mogadishu ever occurred. Polling from a range of conflicts suggests that what counts isn't simply the issue of casualties themselves — but whether there's persuasive rationale for sustaining them. That's what appears to make this conflict so different.
Perception of Bush Linked to War
If anything could be troublesome for Bush, it's that his approval ratings are linked so closely to the war effort. His "strong" approval soars among those who think the war on terrorism is going very well, who think that al Qaeda has been largely shut down, and who are confident the United States can prevent further terrorism.
But that doesn't diminish his current standing. Approval by eight in 10 Americans is a rare thing; just six presidents since 1938 have accomplished it, and most of them fleetingly. None managed to maintain such a high level for so long.
Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, saw his approval rise to 84 percent after Pearl Harbor; but seven months later it had fallen by 14 points, to 70 percent, in Gallup polling. Harry Truman hit 87 percent at the end of World War II; seven months later he'd fallen by 24 points, to 63 percent approval. Bush's father hit 90 percent approval after the Gulf War; within four months he'd lost 20 points.
Bush, by contrast, soared to 86 percent approval on Sept. 13, peaked at a record 92 percent approval on Oct. 9, and has 82 percent today. Indeed, Bush holds eight of the top 12 presidential approval ratings on record in ABC/Post polls back to Ronald Reagan, and Gallup polls from FDR to Jimmy Carter.
Partisanship isn't dead, however. Bush's "strong" approval is far higher among Republicans (84 percent) than it is among independents (49 percent) and Democrats (27 percent). And Bush's strong approval is 31 points higher among whites than it is among nonwhites, who are predominantly Democrats.
Nearly Three-Quarters ‘Extremely’ Proud to Be American
Another sign of today's climate is the level of expressed patriotism. Seventy-four percent of adults say they're "extremely" proud to be an American — up from 55 percent in January 2001. (Another 18 percent are "very proud," for a total of 92 percent expressing high levels of pride in the country.)
Sixty-five percent of adults also say they're displaying an American flag on a daily basis these days. And while for some that's longstanding practice, for most it's new: Forty percent of Americans say they've begun displaying a flag on a daily basis only since Sept. 11.
The vast majority of Americans, 86 percent, say the events of Sept. 11 have changed the nation in a lasting way; and 78 percent of them say it's been a change for the better.
Personal change is somewhat less prevalent, though a majority still reports it: Fifty-seven percent say the attacks changed their personal lives in a lasting way. Many more women say so (67 percent), than men (46 percent).
That's mainly an internal effect, though — among those who report a change, nearly three-quarters say it's in the way they feel about things, not in the way they live their lives. And, as with national change, about three-quarters of those who report personal change since Sept. 11 say it's been a change for the better.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 7-10, 2002, among a random national sample of 1,008 adults. The results have a 3-point error margin. Fieldwork was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
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